tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post135323122776076841..comments2024-03-15T06:52:56.445-07:00Comments on Raising Matt Cain: Prognostication, pt. 1M.C. O'Connorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12258035192484655635noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-27121848079844107442010-02-11T07:13:55.691-08:002010-02-11T07:13:55.691-08:00BtB has another interesting post, this time about ...BtB has another interesting post, this time about "playoff probabilities." AZ gets some love, interestingly, having the highest % in the NL West, followed by CO. <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/2/11/1296119/playoff-probabilities-simulation" rel="nofollow">Check it out.</a><br /><br /><br />n.b. they are using BP's PECOTA system of projections.M.C. O'Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12258035192484655635noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-7534204361309819762010-02-11T07:07:32.111-08:002010-02-11T07:07:32.111-08:00It's a minor league deal, so it's a good m...It's a minor league deal, so it's a good move. They aren't messing with the 40-man roster unless he makes the team. I don't know whether he has anything left, but it never hurts to have depth. He was a decent back-end starter in 2008 for St. Louis. Obviously, I'd like to see Pucetas or Martinez get a chance before him, but you might need an emergenecy starter or long reliever for a stretch, and you wont have to worry about wasting options on your younger talent if you call on Wellemeyer.M.C. O'Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12258035192484655635noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-29705321847219372672010-02-10T18:17:20.635-08:002010-02-10T18:17:20.635-08:00What do you think of the Wellemeyer signing? I thi...What do you think of the Wellemeyer signing? I think it was a mistake, as we have many internal options who can pitch just as well (if not better) for less. What do you guys say?Garbanzo Madasinavathapudihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05075039591862715712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-73668062504691704642010-02-10T16:14:36.441-08:002010-02-10T16:14:36.441-08:00CHONE projections for starting rotations discussed...<a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/2/10/1304375/looking-at-rotations-with-chone#storyjump" rel="nofollow">CHONE projections for starting rotations discussed here.</a>M.C. O'Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12258035192484655635noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-90669180210680680682010-02-10T16:12:54.729-08:002010-02-10T16:12:54.729-08:00Yeah, fixed those typos. I was suffering from EMOS...Yeah, fixed those typos. I was suffering from EMOS--Early Morning Orthography Syndrome! Hey, welcome to the "wham-bam-thank-you-ma'am" world of blogging! Slap it up, fix it up, move on. Appy polly loggies for the "my bad" lapses.<br /><br />And yes, I do believe the Giants deserve a high LCP. We are way too weak of a hitting club to survive a stretch of poor pitching, bad fielding, or a injury to one of the following: Lincecum, Cain, Sandoval, JSanchez, Wilson. Imagine last year if Jeremy Affeldt wasn't "lights out." He was huge in clutch, game-deciding situations ("high leverage" in saber-speak). What if he was closer to his career norms? Imagine last year without Juan Uribe slugging over .500--these kinds of improbable performances lead to, in my view, unreasonable expectations of performance.<br /><br />It should be noted for all of our salivating over our starting pitching (and it is very good), it in not by any means the very best or entirely exclusive. There are several good staffs--the Rockies, for example, and the Braves and the Phils. We are not necessarily THAT much better than LA or AZ, either.<br /><br />Expected order of finish? Other than Colorado and San Diego, no. The middle slots are up for grabs and it will depend a LOT on health and, in the Giants case, if any of our stiffs have a career year (very low probability of that), or if any of our youngsters have a breakout (this is my hope, but the projections aren't encouraging).M.C. O'Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12258035192484655635noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-66997018115944933212010-02-10T09:02:23.385-08:002010-02-10T09:02:23.385-08:00This, improbably, makes even less sense than your ...This, improbably, makes even less sense than your normal posts. Why is East (sic) My Dust Index "EDMI"? Shouldn't it be EMDI? What are the defining criteria of each area? How do you integrate these seemingly vastly different things? One imagines that LCP is some sort of estimate of the potential to have some devastating event (like an injury) that singlehandedly takes the team out of contention. If this is indeed a basis of the potential, why are the Giants ranked "high"? It seems to me that, given pitching depth, the Giants are not likely to suffer as much as some other teams if one pitcher goes down, and given the uniform mediocrity of the offense, it is not likely to suffer much if a hitter goes down either. Is the order teams are listed the expected order of finish in the division? I figured that out because it would just be too, too gut-wrenching to see the Giants do any better than last year.Zonoreply@blogger.com