tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post5450138120613375719..comments2016-09-27T23:07:13.365-07:00Comments on Raising Matt Cain: I'm still giddyM.C. O'Connorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12258035192484655635noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-10973409038824389032009-04-09T18:28:00.000-07:002009-04-09T18:28:00.000-07:00I take it that this does not apply to teams that u...I take it that this does not apply to teams that use Matt Herges as a closer.Zonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-41493366455049173682009-04-08T15:24:00.000-07:002009-04-08T15:24:00.000-07:00You have to look closely. The win probability act...You have to look closely. The win probability actually takes a hit in the 9th (Hinshaw), then bounces back up, and you can see a very small upward-trending tail at the end (presumably out no. 3).<BR/><BR/>(My inserted graph is smaller than the actual one. <A HREF="http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2009-04-07&team=Giants&dh=0&season=2009" REL="nofollow">q.v.</A>)<BR/><BR/>The win probability at home with a 5-run lead at the end of the 8th is about 99.6%.M.C. O'Connorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12258035192484655635noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-38070001175014466122009-04-08T14:01:00.000-07:002009-04-08T14:01:00.000-07:00According to this graph, the probability of a Gian...According to this graph, the probability of a Giants victory was 100% before the ninth inning started. Interesting.Zhonoreply@blogger.com