tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post8199787626636136549..comments2014-12-19T18:38:25.469-08:00Comments on Raising Matt Cain: Exceeding expectationsM.C. O'Connorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12258035192484655635noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-4806667271867181122009-06-25T15:07:22.059-07:002009-06-25T15:07:22.059-07:00Actually, if you followed the link, they do some r...Actually, if you followed the link, they do some regression work with various exponents to "improve" the formula. Believe me, if you want in-depth stat stuff, you can find it. This formula does not deal well with outliers like winning all your games by one run (and they admit that). They just tried to find a "best fit" empirically.M.C. O'Connorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12258035192484655635noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-20860541764240994842009-06-25T11:06:40.886-07:002009-06-25T11:06:40.886-07:00This is probably an example of a stat that either ...This is probably an example of a stat that either needs a margin of error like they give to polling results or else is better expressed as a bell curve. The high point on the curve, or the most probable result given only runs scored and runs scored against, is that we could be 11 games over .500. That is the single most probable result of all possible results, but is not likely (but amazingly, hey! we're not far off). We could also be much better, having lost by blowouts (didn't we get outscored in 1999?) but won more games by one run. Or we could have won by blowouts about once a week and lost more. Maybe someone with programming skills could run this on a computer and generate the curve. I'd like to see it, and I would bet that within a 95% confidence level, we could go from a losing record to pretty close to where we are. Since I never see this kind of thing when people talk about baseball stats, I assume that they attribute more relevance to the stat than it deserves. How 'bout that Unit?Zonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-53230275506155546122009-06-25T08:32:01.508-07:002009-06-25T08:32:01.508-07:00We hoped Lincecum would not be a flash in the pan....We hoped Lincecum would not be a flash in the pan. We hoped RJ would not not be just an embarrassing shell of his former self, going through the motions of getting a few more wins to embellish his career stats. We hoped that Cain's success would some day match his ability. We hoped Zito would not suck every time. We hoped Sanchez would be good.<br />Four out of five is not bad.Bobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18162500140573910451noreply@blogger.com