Thursday, April 21, 2011

1st inning: 10-8

The Giants have played 18 games which is 1/9 of their 162-game season. Thus, they've finished the 1st inning of their 2011 nine inning schedule. So how do things stand so far with the defending champs?

Let's look at the offense:
                            
Tm       R/G   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
CIN     5.56 .272 .341 .440 .781
COL     5.50 .257 .344 .426 .770
STL     5.50 .294 .360 .448 .808
ARI     5.19 .271 .335 .446 .781
PHI     4.88 .273 .330 .392 .722
HOU     4.39 .264 .321 .379 .700
SFG     4.33 .251 .316 .412 .728
LgAvg   4.33 .256 .325 .392 .717
WSN     4.29 .226 .312 .347 .658
FLA     4.12 .265 .334 .389 .724
CHC     4.11 .277 .331 .409 .740
MIL     4.11 .262 .326 .399 .725
NYM     4.00 .238 .309 .365 .674
ATL     3.47 .234 .300 .384 .684
PIT     3.44 .235 .314 .351 .665
SDP     3.33 .222 .309 .334 .643
LAD     3.32 .253 .309 .349 .658


Baseball Nirvana in San Francisco! A "league-average" offense! Such joy, naturally, is predicated on having killer pitching, so let's take a look at the other side of the equation:

                                                                    
Tm       R/G  WHIP  H/9 BB/9 SO/9
ATL     3.26 1.248  8.2  3.0  7.6
SDP     3.39 1.206  8.2  2.6  6.6
FLA     3.75 1.200  7.7  3.1  7.0
MIL     3.78 1.263  8.0  3.4  7.1
PHI     3.88 1.240  8.5  2.6  7.8
SFG     3.89 1.220  7.8  3.2  8.2
COL     4.17 1.239  8.1  3.1  6.7
STL     4.22 1.284  8.6  3.0  7.2
WSN     4.24 1.304  8.8  2.9  6.5
LgAvg   4.33 1.337  8.7  3.3  7.3
CIN     4.61 1.398  8.6  4.0  8.6
PIT     4.67 1.389  8.7  3.8  6.1
CHC     4.72 1.500  9.5  4.0  8.9
LAD     4.79 1.405  9.5  3.2  7.1
HOU     5.00 1.494 10.2  3.3  6.6
NYM     5.44 1.588 10.0  4.3  7.6
ARI     5.62 1.425  9.6  3.3  7.9



The 2011 Giants look good but not great. Brian Wilson had a slow start. Madison Bumgarner is struggling. Barry Zito and Santiago Casilla are on the DL. Matt Cain got blown out in Colorado. There's been a few bumps in the road. Nonetheless, Cain's poor start was preceded by three good ones, Tim Lincecum has flashed his Cy Young form, and Jonathan Sanchez is getting Ks and winning games. Key relievers Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez look strong.

It's hard to complain about a 10-8 start. A little better defense and the team could easily be 12-6. A quick look at the Baseball-Reference NL page (the source of the tables above) shows the team with 14 errors (3rd worst) and a .980 fielding percentage (also 3rd worst). Those don't include of the mental lapses we've all seen, and such metrics aren't always the best indicator of fielding prowess, but in this case I think we all agree the glove work could be improved. B-R has a rating they call "Defensive Efficiency" which they define as Percentage of balls in play converted into outs. This is an estimate based on team defensive and pitching stats. The Giants are 6th at .696, the league average being .689.

Going forward, it will be interesting to see what the team will do with Ryan Vogelsong and Zito's spot in the rotation. Andres Torres is sorely missed. Aubrey Huff's bat needs to wake up. Those two players had the most WAR on the team last season! Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval need to keep up the production. It would be nice to get something from Miguel Tejada. Mostly, the team's pitchers need to stay healthy and do what they do best and that's get people out. It's April. If the Giants can stay above .500 and within shouting distance of the NL West lead I wouldn't worry about things until after the ASB. The defending champs have yet to put it all together, and that's OK with me. It's a long season. There are eight more innings yet to play.

--M.C.

p.s. Baseball-Reference is absolutely invaluable. If you use the site, you might think about sponsoring a page. RMC, naturally, sponsors Matt Cain's page.

1 comment:

Zo said...

This is a great example of a small sample size. Some of the pitcher coughs, like Matt's last night and Brian Wilson's first outing skew the stats too much to take seriously at this point in the season. One could look at the Padre's pitching, and, but gee, they aren't doing too well at this point. 10-8 could be better. We have given a couple close ones away. The bats are looking better, including Huff's. I'm looking for the Giants to gradually increase that winning percentage.