The Giants landed Jonathan Sanchez in the 2004 June draft. He was the next-to-last (29th) pick of the 27th round, making him the 820th player chosen. Only four other players of the forty-nine chosen that year by the Giants have played in the majors: John Bowker, Clay Timpner, Geno Espineli, and Kevin Frandsen. The highest pick (#70, round 2) was Eddy Martinez-Esteve. The Giants forfeited their first-round pick in compensation for Michael Tucker. Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver were first-rounders that year and Dustin Pedroia and Hunter Pence second-rounders. In 2003, the Giants had a compensation pick in the first round from the loss of Jeff Kent. They selected David Aardsma (#22) out of Rice University, two spots ahead of a high-schooler, also from Texas, named Chad Billingsley. The Giants later bundled Aardsma with Jerome Williams for LaTroy Hawkins. So much for the budding aces! Aardsma seemed like a smart choice at the time--his Owls had just won the CWS with him earning two wins and two saves. That's the way the ball bounces, eh? Nate Schierholtz showed up on the Giants radar in the 2nd round (#63), and picked after Billy Sadler, Pat Misch, and Ryan Sadowski in the 24th round (#723) was The Bearded One himself, Brian Wilson. Notables from the 2003 draft class include Rickie Weeks, John Danks, Nick Markakis, and Aaron Hill.
Bruce Bochy calls him "Willie" and he debuted in 2006 and was given the closer's job in 2008. He started to shine in 2009, cutting down the hits, homers, and walks, and in 2010 he put it all together, whiffing 93 of 311 batters and nailing down 48 saves (leading the NL). In 11-2/3 innings in the post-season he allowed five hits, four walks, one run, and struck out 16, garnering a win and six saves. FanGraphs called it a 2.6 WAR season. 2011 was not so kind to Willie, with an oblique injury derailing his spring. His walks and hits went up and his strikeouts went down. He made 57 appearances, fewest since 2007, finishing 45 games with 36 saves. FanGraphs said it was worth only 0.6 WAR. His two-year $15M deal pays him $8.5M for 2012. His fourth and final arb year is 2013 and he's a free agent in 2014. Tim Lincecum and Santiago Casilla are in the same boat.
You have to figure the organization is going to expect a lot more than 0.6 WAR from Willie and His Beard this coming season. It was clear he was not up to snuff this past season. Wilson is almost two years younger (he turns 30 in March) than Jonathan Papelbon, who was chosen in the 2003 draft as well (4th round), and the new Phillie sets the standard for closers not named Mariano Rivera. Craig Kimbrel, the Braves 23-year old rookie, was the best in the NL in 2011, with guys like John Axford (29 in April) and J.J. Putz (35 in June) a tad lower in the rankings but playing big roles on playoff teams nonetheless. The Giants need Willie to recapture that 2010 magic and be one of the elites again. I'm thinking that a nice, long off-season with lots of healing will be just the ticket.
Fear the Beard!
--M.C.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Friday, December 30, 2011
Twelve for 2012: Sergio Romo
Sergio Romo was the only bright spot of the 2005 June draft. The Giants had forfeited the first three rounds in free agent compensation (Armando Benitez, Mike Matheny, and Omar Vizquel) and didn't get a shot until they selected Ben Copeland with the 132nd pick. The laundry list of nobodies that followed is impressive: Dan Griffin, Brad Cuthbertson, Joseph Dyche, Scotty Bridges, and so on. The 372nd pick netted Joe Martinez and the 462nd pick Alex Hinshaw. But the gem came in the 28th round, the 852nd pick from the Mesa State College Mavericks, Sergio Romo. Just for fun, check out the first-rounders from 2005: Justin Upton, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Andrew McCutchen, Jacoby Ellsbury, and the like. Wow.
Speaking of wow, that's what I like about Romo--the "wow" factor. He throws that goddamn impossible pitch I call a "fascist groove thang." I get some funny looks when I yell "throw that fascist groove thang, Sergio!" It looks like a fat one right over the middle until it gets some legs a hairsbreadth in front of the strike zone and whoosh it dives outside by a foot and a half and the poor sucker in the box looks like he's trying to take a shit and coax a butterfly to land on the end of the bat at the same time. (Think Aaron Rowand.) Man, this guy is a beast. In the minors he was 17-3 as a starter before becoming a full-time reliever at San Jose in 2007. He struck out 106 of the 247 batters he faced that season and hasn't slowed down since he debuted in the bigs in 2008. Last year was beyond ridiculous as he whiffed 70 of the 175 guys he faced and only allowed 6 walks and 29 hits. His K/9 rate in the minors was 10.1 and it is 10.8 in The Show. He'll be 29 in March and is arb-eligible for the first time. He's a free agent in 2015. The Giants have closer talent in the setup role--how many teams can say that?
--M.C.
p.s. Take a look. The Angels had the foresight to draft a very promising youngster from Lee County HS in Leesburg, Georgia in the final (50th) round with the 1496th pick. Fortunately the lad--a certain Buster Posey--chose college instead. You see? More proof that kids should go to college.
Speaking of wow, that's what I like about Romo--the "wow" factor. He throws that goddamn impossible pitch I call a "fascist groove thang." I get some funny looks when I yell "throw that fascist groove thang, Sergio!" It looks like a fat one right over the middle until it gets some legs a hairsbreadth in front of the strike zone and whoosh it dives outside by a foot and a half and the poor sucker in the box looks like he's trying to take a shit and coax a butterfly to land on the end of the bat at the same time. (Think Aaron Rowand.) Man, this guy is a beast. In the minors he was 17-3 as a starter before becoming a full-time reliever at San Jose in 2007. He struck out 106 of the 247 batters he faced that season and hasn't slowed down since he debuted in the bigs in 2008. Last year was beyond ridiculous as he whiffed 70 of the 175 guys he faced and only allowed 6 walks and 29 hits. His K/9 rate in the minors was 10.1 and it is 10.8 in The Show. He'll be 29 in March and is arb-eligible for the first time. He's a free agent in 2015. The Giants have closer talent in the setup role--how many teams can say that?
--M.C.
p.s. Take a look. The Angels had the foresight to draft a very promising youngster from Lee County HS in Leesburg, Georgia in the final (50th) round with the 1496th pick. Fortunately the lad--a certain Buster Posey--chose college instead. You see? More proof that kids should go to college.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Twelve for 2012: The Freak
Tim Lincecum was the tenth player taken in the 2006 June amateur draft and took the hill for the Giants in 2007 after only 13 minor-league starts. Since he'd struck out 104 of the 236 batters he'd faced and allowed only 26 hits in the 62-2/3 IP, it seemed like a wise move. FanGraphs says that Evan Longoria (the #3 pick) has racked up a career total of 26.9 WAR for the Rays since his debut in 2008. The only other player from that draft class remotely close is Clayton Kershaw (#7) with 17.1 WAR. He also made The Show in 2008. Tim comes in at 27.9 WAR. Baseball-Reference has its own Wins Above Replacement metric, and it rates Longoria a hair ahead of Tim (24.1 to 22.5), with Kershaw third (16.7), but that's a quibble. He's a great player on a team that's seen three post-seasons in the last four years so I don't begrudge the rankings. Three superstars from the Top 10, with a few other good ballplayers like Drew Stubbs (#8) and Brandon Morrow (#5) to round things out, you'd have to say it was quite a group. Toss in Max Scherzer (#11), Ian Kennedy (#21), Daniel Bard (#28), Joba Chamberlain (#41), and Chris Perez (#42) you've got some serious talent. Oh, and don't forget Emmanuel Burriss (#33)! He was a supplemental pick for the loss of Scott Eyre, another of Sabes' beloved LOOGYs. You have to pity the poor Orioles who took Billy Rowell, a high school third baseman, with the ninth pick. He's one of only two in the first 21 picks who has yet to see ML time.
When I'm on holiday I spend way too much time looking at B-R pages. Sorry about that. The point is that Tim is an über-stud and picking him was the best move the Brian Trust ever made. There was hand-wringing aplenty last season with Tim's drop in strikeouts and increase in walks, but I don't fret about that sort of thing too much. The lack of run support was appalling, something he had never really experienced (unlike Matt Cain!), and overall the team's fielders performed worse than in 2010. Things took their toll. The rest of baseball was gunning for the champs--as they should--and the barrage of injuries was a death blow to the title defense. Still, Tim finished sixth in the Cy Young vote despite a sub-.500 record. He was a beast, just not the best. When you are at the top and slip a little, it seems like a much greater fall. Unfair, sure, but reality. Guys like Tim are used to slugging it out for the big prizes, and I don't see how that's going to be different in 2012. I fully expect him to be at or near the top of the leaderboards once again.
The $100M question, of course, is what will happen with the contract talks. Rumor has it that Tim's agent was looking for an eight-year deal, and I would imagine he was thinking CC Sabathia money (7/161 in 2009, now 5/122), somewhere in the ballpark of $25M per season. The Giants will probably have to pay close to that in arbitration in one of these next two years, and I'm sure would love to settle on a four-year deal of about $100M that would buy out the two remaining arb years and the first two (2014-15) free agent years. But I get the feeling that's it's an "all-or-nothing" gambit on the Lincecum side: if he is indeed The Franchise, he ought to be treated like one. Aaron Rowand's salary comes off the books in 2013, and Barry Zito can be bought out in 2014. I think the Giants would rather go to arb again this season than commit to a "franchise" type deal yet. And who knows? They may never again after Zito. But some money will be freed up in case they decide to go that way. One thing is for sure, they won't want a bidding war like the recent situation with Albert Pujols. Those don't end well. If they are going to keep him around, they'll have one more chance--next off-season--to make that happen. The Cain situation is actually more urgent, and will tell us a lot about the restructured ownership group and The Reign of Larry Baer. I still think he looks a little too much like Maximilien Robespierre.
--M.C.
When I'm on holiday I spend way too much time looking at B-R pages. Sorry about that. The point is that Tim is an über-stud and picking him was the best move the Brian Trust ever made. There was hand-wringing aplenty last season with Tim's drop in strikeouts and increase in walks, but I don't fret about that sort of thing too much. The lack of run support was appalling, something he had never really experienced (unlike Matt Cain!), and overall the team's fielders performed worse than in 2010. Things took their toll. The rest of baseball was gunning for the champs--as they should--and the barrage of injuries was a death blow to the title defense. Still, Tim finished sixth in the Cy Young vote despite a sub-.500 record. He was a beast, just not the best. When you are at the top and slip a little, it seems like a much greater fall. Unfair, sure, but reality. Guys like Tim are used to slugging it out for the big prizes, and I don't see how that's going to be different in 2012. I fully expect him to be at or near the top of the leaderboards once again.
The $100M question, of course, is what will happen with the contract talks. Rumor has it that Tim's agent was looking for an eight-year deal, and I would imagine he was thinking CC Sabathia money (7/161 in 2009, now 5/122), somewhere in the ballpark of $25M per season. The Giants will probably have to pay close to that in arbitration in one of these next two years, and I'm sure would love to settle on a four-year deal of about $100M that would buy out the two remaining arb years and the first two (2014-15) free agent years. But I get the feeling that's it's an "all-or-nothing" gambit on the Lincecum side: if he is indeed The Franchise, he ought to be treated like one. Aaron Rowand's salary comes off the books in 2013, and Barry Zito can be bought out in 2014. I think the Giants would rather go to arb again this season than commit to a "franchise" type deal yet. And who knows? They may never again after Zito. But some money will be freed up in case they decide to go that way. One thing is for sure, they won't want a bidding war like the recent situation with Albert Pujols. Those don't end well. If they are going to keep him around, they'll have one more chance--next off-season--to make that happen. The Cain situation is actually more urgent, and will tell us a lot about the restructured ownership group and The Reign of Larry Baer. I still think he looks a little too much like Maximilien Robespierre.
--M.C.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Twelve for 2012: MadBum
Clayton Kershaw was the King of the Southpaws in the NL West this past season, and one of the best in baseball. But I think the Giants have a young lefty that's equally as talented who will seize the throne next year and serve notice to the rest of baseball. You win a World Series game on Halloween and you'd think you'd get some bounce, but Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum cast big shadows. That's all about to change. Madison Bumgarner has yet to show us how good he can really be. The 22-year old from North Carolina was 34-6 in 63 games in the minors (355-2/3 IP), 62 of them starts. Those are ridiculous numbers at any level. He struck out 164 guys in his first year in A-ball (141-2/3 IP) when he was 18 years old. He was the 10th selection--straight out of high school--in the 2007 June draft, behind #1 David Price (Vanderbilt) and #5 Matt Wieters (Georgia Tech). Last season FanGraphs rated MadBum 11th in WAR among all pitchers (5.5), just ahead of Cain (5.2). Lincecum was 22nd (4.4), just behind the aforementioned Price (4.7). Speaking of aforementioneds, Kershaw was 4th (6.8), trailing Justin Verlander (7.0), CC Sabathia (7.1) and Roy Halladay (8.2). If you sort the same list by FIP, MadBum is 4th (2.67), Cain 7th (2.91), and Lincecum 18th (3.17). The top thee spots are no surprise: Halladay (2.20), Kershaw (2.47), and Cliff Lee (2.60).
I told myself I wasn't going to go all number-y, and here I am a-numbering. Besides, who can trust metrics that dis on The Franchise? The Freak walked a few more guys than usual, but he was still better than a dozen guys ahead of him on both those lists. But that's another post. This one is about the kid who struck out 191 and walked only 56 in 204-2/3 IP. Whoops, there I go again. It's hard to stop. MadBum won the clincher in Atlanta in the 2010 LDS in his maiden post-season start. When he got his cup of coffee in 2009 he was the youngest player in the NL. (Cain earned the same distinction in 2005.) He's still the youngest guy on the staff, even younger than Eric Surkamp. The sky is the limit on this guy. He is one of the main reasons I'm so excited about next season--I really believe he is only beginning to develop his game. We got a taste this past season of what a three-headed beast the rotation can be when Tim, Matt, and MadBum all threw 33 starts and 200+ innings. I expect no less this coming season.
--M.C.
p.s. Tim Alderson was also a 1st round pick (#22, a compensation pick from the Dodgers for Jason Schmidt). Like MadBum he came straight from HS, but has yet to see ML time. The Giants lost him in the Freddy Sanchez trade. The only other notables from that draft were Dan Runzler (9th round, #284), and Joe Paterson (10th round, #314) who the Diamondbacks obtained via Rule V. He pitched 1/3 of an inning in the NLDS against Milwaukee (strikeout). Steve Edlefsen was the 494th pick (16th round). Farmhands Wendell Fairley, Nick Noonan, Jackson Williams, and Charlie Culberson were also taken in the same draft in the first round. Fairley (#29) and Noonan (#32) were compensation for Moises Alou, and Williams (#43) was part of the Schmidt deal. Culberson (#51) was, believe it or not, from the loss of Mike Stanton. He was a Giant in 2006 (Sabes loves a LOOGY) after signing a free agent deal with Washington and then being traded for Shairon Martis. Help me, I'm stuck in a B-R trivia quagmire!
I told myself I wasn't going to go all number-y, and here I am a-numbering. Besides, who can trust metrics that dis on The Franchise? The Freak walked a few more guys than usual, but he was still better than a dozen guys ahead of him on both those lists. But that's another post. This one is about the kid who struck out 191 and walked only 56 in 204-2/3 IP. Whoops, there I go again. It's hard to stop. MadBum won the clincher in Atlanta in the 2010 LDS in his maiden post-season start. When he got his cup of coffee in 2009 he was the youngest player in the NL. (Cain earned the same distinction in 2005.) He's still the youngest guy on the staff, even younger than Eric Surkamp. The sky is the limit on this guy. He is one of the main reasons I'm so excited about next season--I really believe he is only beginning to develop his game. We got a taste this past season of what a three-headed beast the rotation can be when Tim, Matt, and MadBum all threw 33 starts and 200+ innings. I expect no less this coming season.
--M.C.
p.s. Tim Alderson was also a 1st round pick (#22, a compensation pick from the Dodgers for Jason Schmidt). Like MadBum he came straight from HS, but has yet to see ML time. The Giants lost him in the Freddy Sanchez trade. The only other notables from that draft were Dan Runzler (9th round, #284), and Joe Paterson (10th round, #314) who the Diamondbacks obtained via Rule V. He pitched 1/3 of an inning in the NLDS against Milwaukee (strikeout). Steve Edlefsen was the 494th pick (16th round). Farmhands Wendell Fairley, Nick Noonan, Jackson Williams, and Charlie Culberson were also taken in the same draft in the first round. Fairley (#29) and Noonan (#32) were compensation for Moises Alou, and Williams (#43) was part of the Schmidt deal. Culberson (#51) was, believe it or not, from the loss of Mike Stanton. He was a Giant in 2006 (Sabes loves a LOOGY) after signing a free agent deal with Washington and then being traded for Shairon Martis. Help me, I'm stuck in a B-R trivia quagmire!
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