Riot Breaks Out Over Relief

I stole this headline from a British newspaper about David Cameron's proposed cuts to the welfare system. Wait, what? It's not "a riot," it's "The riot"? Theriot? I remember back about December 9, at 9:28 am, some idiot said, " They also said that they were trying to 'fill the hole at shortstop.' Then, it became 'Crawford's our starter' followed by 'Crawford has yet to demonstrate the ability to hit left handed pitching at any level' followed by, 'We're set at shortstop.'" I guess he was wrong on that, too. Oh well, good thing Bruce Bochy tends to favor up-and-coming young men.

PS. Clay Hensley

Tim and Matt

I'm surprised, but happy the Giants avoided arbitration with Tim Lincecum. I kept thinking they would make a one-year deal, or even go to arb, and then work on a contract in the next off-season. The Giants do not seem to like the arb process and I can't say I blame them. Far better to negotiate directly than talk a guy down in front of a disinterested party. Tim is going to cost about $25M/year in free agency, but that is now two full seasons away. In 2014 the Giants can buy out Barry Zito for a $7M pittance and that might free them up to be players in the Freak-stakes. Now the Giants and Lincecum can drop the contract talks for the season and bring up the idea of an extension in the 2012-2013 off-season. That's the ideal scenario. If Tim declares free agency after the 2013 season then all bets are off. In a year I'll expect some serious talk about an extension for The Franchise. (Let's hope his agent's words are sincere.) I'm happy to shelve that topic and focus on Timmeh taking the ball every fifth day!

Matt Cain is now on the front burner. This is the negotiating window as his contract expires and he becomes a free agent this fall. There seems to be a sentiment that Cain will sign a "team-friendly" deal (think Jered Weaver, 5/85), but that's just buzz. I have yet to hear anything solid. I get the feeling MC wants to stay in San Francisco, but that's, once again, just speculation. I never blame a player for taking the money. This is their livelihood, they should do what is best for them. I would be devastated if no. 18 left for "greener" pastures--he's my favorite player, not to mention the namesake of the blog. But business is business and I have no beef with that. The Giants supposedly offered Tim a 5-year, $100M deal. I wonder if they'll dangle something similar in front of Matt. I keep thinking that a 5-year, $90M offer would get it done. That's a raise over his 2012 salary ($15.3M) and in line with similar pitchers (Cole Hamels is "only" getting $15M). How about $16/17/18/19/20M for 2013-2017? Would that work?

My enthusiasm for the 2012 Giants is predicated on an extension for Cain. I've believed all along that both sides are committed to getting it done. Now is the time!

--M.C.

Matt and Tim

Q. What pitchers do you enjoy watching?

A. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain with San Francisco. Once a year I take my whole wine team down to see the Giants and we meet the players. I’ve never seen anyone pitch like Lincecum that can throw the ball and get through the front leg. He has that stiff front leg. In essence, his throwing arm does not bull whip or backlash. So he doesn’t put all the secondary energy into his shoulder and his elbow. He’s got a chance to pitch for a long time. I don’t like the mechanics from the standpoint of what they do. But he’s learned to compensate and finish with the correct motion.

Q. Is there a pitcher who reminds you of yourself?

A. Cain is very similar mechanically to the way I threw. Very similar.

You can read more of this interview with Tom Seaver here. (Hat tip, Baseball Musings.)

--M.C.
 

Arb-athon

The Giants appear to have cleared the arb calendar a bit. Santiago Casilla joins the FNGs (Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera) as the latest to sign. Nate Schierholtz, Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo, and Tim Lincecum remain on the list.

An enjoyable interview with long-time baseball writer Robert Creamer is here. Check it out. Nice to know an old guy is still smart, relevant, and learning new things. Should be an example for us all.

--M.C.

Epiphany

I remember reading A Portrait of the Artist as a Young Man in Mr. Adamo's Senior English class in high school and one of the vocabulary words we had to know was "epiphany." Of course I was familiar with the proper noun being a Catholic school boy, but the word--by itself--was new to me. Ecclesiastically speaking it means "manifestation of a god." But Joyce used it to mean a "leap of understanding, an insight or revelation." I have epiphanies all the goddamn time. Not that they are especially deep or original, but nobody said they had to be. Call 'em what you want: "aha!" moments, brain farts, putting two and two together, etc. I get 'em regularly. I love words that are both sacred and profane, sublime and ridiculous, living in the ethereal plane as happily as the quotidian. Sort of like baseball. It's a kids' game, played on dirt and grass. Yet it is beautiful, and gives me something akin to spiritual satisfaction. It's simple--hit, run, throw, catch. But what makes a team great, or a player achieve, is a mystery. No one has any fucking idea why a guy who hits only three homers in 72 games turns around and hits two homers in six games in the World Series. Winning baseball, despite the best efforts of a lot a bright folks, is not all that amenable to analysis. Ain't that just grand? As the old man used to say, "opinions are like assholes, everybody has one." He sure knew a lot about being an asshole, but that's not the point. The point is, I love the internet. Everybody gets to have their own asshole. I mean opinion! Everyone gets to have their own opinion. Hell, they get to have their own goddamn blog. Look at me! I AM BLOGGER. I HAVE OPINION. Like I said, ain't it grand? Anyway, this is Raising Matt Cain, and we got some bloody serious opinions around here.

Spending The Twelve Days of Christmas opining about the 2012 Giants was a lot of fun. I had a lot of insights, er, epiphanies. Or was it just one? Epiphany, that is. The question I have is "is it still an epiphany if it just reinforces what you already thought?" I mean, I thought the 2012 Giants were going to be a good team. Then I did the posts, and I kept having these deep revelations like "yeah, dude, right on, they are gonna be fuckin' killer." I had one every day. It's not like I sat down at the keyboard thinking "this team sucks they shoulda done this and that" and then Bog And All His Holy Angels And Saints would manifest themselves with heavenly choruses and seraphim and cherubim and whatnot and change my mind. Nor did I leap out of bed "oh boy oh boy oh boy this team is gonna be so fuckin' good I gotta tell the whole world" and start pounding away like a coke fiend who found his misplaced bindle.

I'd say it was Gradualism as opposed to Catastrophism. I set myself to this task (Twelve for 2012) because I love the Giants and wanted to enjoy the interesting team the Brian Trust has assembled. I've had a good feeling about this club since the season was over, but had not really wrapped my mind around it. The more time I spent looking at this roster, the happier I've become. I really like this collection of ballplayers. I think it is a team suited not only to the park but to the times. I like the speed and versatility in the outfield. I like the emerging superstars in the infield. I like holding three aces. I like a deep 'pen. I like the strong core of homegrown talent (of the thirteen I profiled, all were Giants draft picks and/or farm products except the FNGs). I like the mix of VSC and youth. I like the competition at key spots. I like the question marks. I suppose my epiphany is that I like it all--even the flaws in the team. I've always managed to work myself up into the usual "we're gonna win it all" state at some point before Opening Day. I'm a fan, after all, which is shorthand for fanatic. (Or fantasy.) That means I'm a dreamer--I'm always imagining the game-winning hit in the Series and all of us jumping up and down and going crazy. This off-season, though, I find myself at peace. I'm not anxious. I'm not frustrated. I'm relaxed. I'm confident. I feel good. I think it is going to be a fun ride. I can't remember ever having this pax anima. Perhaps I'm just deluded and the team needed Carlos Beltran after all. But it's my delusion and I'm sticking with it!

Thanks for sticking with me and RMC, friend readers. Hope your Twenty-Twelve is all you want it to be.

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

Twelve for 2012: Melky Cabrera

I saved the other FNG for last because Melky is short for Melchior**, and legend has it that one of the Magi was named Melchior. Since this is the Twelfth Night--the Eve of the Epiphany--it seemed best to save Melky Cabrera for the end. Most folks did not have poor Melky in mind when the Giants floated the idea of trading Jonathan Sanchez. I think the expectation was that they'd get prospects in return. But with Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand, and Cody Ross all leaving the club it should not have surprised us that they would want immediate help in the outfield. One thing about Melky I think they liked was "706" as in 706 PA last season. That's a lot of playing time--1339-2/3 innings, in fact. The 2011 Giants used the DL twenty-five times, the most in the majors. You have to figure they were looking for a guy they could plug in every day.

So which Melky are the Giants going to get? The "breakout" Melky from 2011 (.305/.339/.470, 4.2 WAR), the out-of-shape 2010 Melky (.255/.317/.354, -1.0 WAR), or the 2009 World Series champion Yankee Melky (.274/.336/.416, 1.6 WAR)? Cabrera is 27, the age where we always used to talk about a player coming into his prime. The Milk Man rolled out a .769 OPS in his minor-league career, and last year (.809) was the first time he exceeded that in six full seasons in the majors. His career mark is .729 (93 OPS+). Bill James projects .279/.332/.413 (.745) for our FNG which I think undersells him a bit, and ZiPS says .284/.330/.435 (.765) for a 106 OPS+ and 2.7 WAR. Hey, I'll take it!

The trade for Jonathan Sanchez (and, lest we forget, Ryan Verdugo) has been hashed out ad nauseum, I won't dive into that again. There's plenty of digital ink out there for those of you who need more analysis. At this point what's done is done and I'm on board with it--he's our lad now. I'm ready to chant "Le-che, Le-che, Le-che" in the left field bleachers, how about you?

--M.C.

**Or Melquiades (I haven't found a source that lists him other than "Melky") which I'm guessing is the Spanish version of the name, or at least an homage to one of los Reyes. The festival is called El Día de los Reyes in Spanish-speaking countries. The "Three Wise Men" are often called "The Three Kings" although magus (the Latin magi is plural) is probably better translated as "shaman" or perhaps "astrologer" or "alchemist." Obviously it's the source of the English word "magic." Let's hope we get some Melky-magic in 2012!

Twelve for 2012: Ryan Vogelsong

Ryan Vogelsong was selected by the Giants in the 5th round of the June 1998 draft. He was the 158th player chosen. Aubrey Huff was the 162nd. Andres Torres and Javier Lopez were both taken in the 4th round. Isn't it funny where guys come from and where they wind up? It was not a good time for Giants draft fortunes--Tony Torcato was the team's first pick (#19). The Indians followed with C.C. Sabathia. The 25th pick was also San Francisco's and they selected Nate Bump. Brian Sabean traded him (along with Jason Grilli, also a 1st-rounder, #4 overall in 1997) a year later for Livan Hernandez. That worked out well for the Giants and has to be entered in the ledger as a plus for Sabes. He made another great trade in 2000, sending Vogelsong and Armando Rios to Pittsburgh for Jason Schmidt.

Vogelsong was my favorite story of 2011. He really came out of nowhere and then kicked ass all season long. The standard line is that he can't possibly be that good in 2012. Obsessive Giants Compulsive has the best answer to that--he doesn't have to be. He's our fourth starter, or possibly fifth, depending on Barry Zito. He only has to be better than an average fourth or fifth starter. That I think he will do, and do easily. Fourth and fifth starters aren't very good, and with three aces to start things off I think Vogie can hold his own just fine. Bill James projects him to make 29 starts with a 7.39 K/9 and a 4.01 FIP. That would be sweet! I think it is better than even money that he will have an ERA+ over 100 (it was 132 in 2011, and is 86 for his 500 IP career). FanGraphs lists 50 NL pitchers who qualified for the ERA title (min. 162 IP) last season, and Vogie ranks 27th with 2.4 WAR. Here are some guys who did worse (below 2.0 WAR) than that: Chris Capuano, Wandy Rodriguez, Mike Leake, Brett Myers, Randy Wolf, Ted Lilly, Jake Westbrook, Jason Hammel, Joe Saunders, Tim Stauffer, Aaron Harang, and Bronson Arroyo.

Yeah, I'm glad the Giants are taking their chances with Vogie.

--M.C.