It's the Winter Meetings so you expect some action. The Giants sign RHP Kevin Gausman to a one-year $9M deal, with incentives. He was non-tendered in Cincinnati. He's 28 and has started 150+ games in his career. The Giants also purchased 34-year old infielder Zack Cozart from the Angels for over $12M, but it seems the point was to get 21-year old shortstop Will Wilson, the #15 pick (from NC State) in last year's draft. The team certainly has money to spend, and they'd rather take a chance on a guy who has one season of rookie ball than a seasoned centerfielder. But that's what you do when you are rebuilding. If they get anything out of Cozart it will be a bonus, but he did hit 24 HR two years ago.
--M.C.
Tuesday, December 10, 2019
Monday, December 9, 2019
Winter Meetings Begin
Seven years and $245M for Stephen Strasburg to stay in DC. What will it cost to keep Madison Bumgarner in San Francisco? More now, I suspect. Starting pitching is always a premium product--you want some, it'll cost ya. But that matters not. The Giants have oodles of money and can spend it if they want. We don't know what they want, that's the problem.
I saw a tweet from AmyG that says the Giants will sign a starter this week. And, they are meeting with MadBum's reps this week. I have to assume the Giants want to improve their starting pitching.
She also tweets that Aramis Garcia is slotted for Buster's backup spot now that Stephen Vogt has left (he's on the D-Backs). This is a good opportunity for Garcia and I hope he makes the most of it. The big talk is about 'player development' which I assume is industry buzz for 'teaching' but at the major-league level. That stuff mostly used to happen in the minors, but things have changed. There is more emphasis on teaching at the top level and of course there is much more information available. I hope that means more young players will get chances in 2020 and that they will get the coaching they need to be their best. I don't know how that stuff works, I just hope it does work.
M.C.
I saw a tweet from AmyG that says the Giants will sign a starter this week. And, they are meeting with MadBum's reps this week. I have to assume the Giants want to improve their starting pitching.
She also tweets that Aramis Garcia is slotted for Buster's backup spot now that Stephen Vogt has left (he's on the D-Backs). This is a good opportunity for Garcia and I hope he makes the most of it. The big talk is about 'player development' which I assume is industry buzz for 'teaching' but at the major-league level. That stuff mostly used to happen in the minors, but things have changed. There is more emphasis on teaching at the top level and of course there is much more information available. I hope that means more young players will get chances in 2020 and that they will get the coaching they need to be their best. I don't know how that stuff works, I just hope it does work.
M.C.
Monday, December 2, 2019
Non-tendered
The Giants decided that Kevin Pillar was not worth approximately ten million dollars to play for them next season. The fact the he was a popular, entertaining, and even valuable player made no difference in the end. Value, of course, depends on the beholder. I thought the "butts in the seats" argument would knock the Villar-meter over to "sign" but I remain once again useless at prognostication. That doesn't mean Pillar won't be on the Giants, it just means he will be free to find a home somewhere else. You never know, sometimes guys come back on a lower per-year deal for their own reasons. Or the market for their skills never develops. Baseball is not a "free market" in the Econ 101 sense, it is too small and too constricted and subject to too many random inputs. But a guy like Pillar, a good ballplayer despite some scary on-base numbers (.287! overall), does not have the "value" in today's market that perhaps he should. But that's as much on the players and the skewed free agency rules that the MLBPA have gone along with; and as I like to say "it is what it is" when faced with such messes. Pillar should have a job on a major-league club, but the market right now is not ready to pay him ten million bucks.
The Giants are willing to pay Alex Dickerson ($925K) and southpaw Wandy Peralta ($805K) but not recently-claimed Tyler Anderson ($2.6M) and Rico Garcia (pre-arb), or late-season pick-up Joey Rickard ($1.1M). Donovan Solano was also offered a contract, but I can't seem to find the details. Like Pillar, he is on the wrong side of 30, but costs a lot less. And he hit better--whether he can do that next season is anyone's guess, but .330/.360/.456 is better than .264/.298/.442 (just with the Giants). To be fair, Solano was a half-timer (81 G to Pillar's 156 G), but he probably should be. Pillar would be a great player if he hit 8th, but on the 2019 Giants he hit mostly 5th, 6th, and 7th, which in my view is too high in the lineup. He would be an excellent part-time/platoon player or late-inning defensive replacement and pinch-hitter.
The Giants have plenty of money and could certainly afford Pillar, but FZ claimed the move had nothing to do with finances. If that's true, it means they don't see Pillar as part of the future. They are indeed rebuilding, even if they won't say it out loud. Pillar would be a great piece on a good club that's ready to contend. That tells you something right there. And I'm OK with it. This Giants team needs a makeover. It needs an infusion of talent. Pillar was the right guy at the right time, but they need a lot more than that going forward.
--M.C.
The Giants are willing to pay Alex Dickerson ($925K) and southpaw Wandy Peralta ($805K) but not recently-claimed Tyler Anderson ($2.6M) and Rico Garcia (pre-arb), or late-season pick-up Joey Rickard ($1.1M). Donovan Solano was also offered a contract, but I can't seem to find the details. Like Pillar, he is on the wrong side of 30, but costs a lot less. And he hit better--whether he can do that next season is anyone's guess, but .330/.360/.456 is better than .264/.298/.442 (just with the Giants). To be fair, Solano was a half-timer (81 G to Pillar's 156 G), but he probably should be. Pillar would be a great player if he hit 8th, but on the 2019 Giants he hit mostly 5th, 6th, and 7th, which in my view is too high in the lineup. He would be an excellent part-time/platoon player or late-inning defensive replacement and pinch-hitter.
The Giants have plenty of money and could certainly afford Pillar, but FZ claimed the move had nothing to do with finances. If that's true, it means they don't see Pillar as part of the future. They are indeed rebuilding, even if they won't say it out loud. Pillar would be a great piece on a good club that's ready to contend. That tells you something right there. And I'm OK with it. This Giants team needs a makeover. It needs an infusion of talent. Pillar was the right guy at the right time, but they need a lot more than that going forward.
--M.C.
Saturday, November 30, 2019
Bitchin' About Pitchin'
This is a bit of a post-mortem.
At the end of 2018, we though we were in pretty good shape, pitching-wise. We had 5 regular starters, without Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, and they had collectively given us 125 starts during the season.
era war
Madbum 3.26 2.4
Holland 3.57 2.1
Suarez 4.49 0.5
Stratton 5.09 - 0.8
DRod 2.81 2.5
That's 6.7 war out of our 5 starters. For the record, we got 9 or more starts out of Ty Blach, Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, before they became injured. What's more, we seemed to be getting out relief staff to work the way there were intended to. I remember feeling pretty good about the Giants going into 2019 - looking for our young pitching staff to build on 2018 and serve notice around the league that the Giants could again matter.
In 2019, however, our starting pitching let us down. We still managed to win more than we won in 2018 (a whopping 4 games), but not because of our starters. Probably because we got decent offensive seasons out of Kevin Pillar and Evan Longoria. Madbum was again pretty good, perhaps a bit better if measured by WAR, and Samardzija came back and really gave us more than we could have hoped for. Other than that, though:
era war
Madbum 3.90 2.5
Holland 5.90 - 0.8
Suarez 5.79 - 0.4
Stratton gone
DRod 5.64 - 1.4
also
Smardji 3.52 2.9
Beede 5.08 0.1
Anderson 5.44 - 0.5
Pomeranz 5.68 - 0.4
Derek Holland made 7 starts and Logan Webb made 8. The DRod, Madbum, Smardji, Beede, Anderson and Pomeranz sextet made 145 starts. That gives us a total of 1.1 WAR, quite the let down from 2018.
So here we are. Going into 2019, we have work to do on our starters. At least we have some, and hopefully that will include a healthy Johnny Cueto, and a Madbum, although I have a sneaking suspicion that the Giants won't do more than give lip service to re-signing him. That might be just my general sour mood talking, Know what else? Unlike this time last year, our bullpen, perhaps the envy of the league, needs a total rebuild. Tony Watson and Reyes Montoya, both of whom ended the season on the DL. We traded away Melancon and Dyson and Will Smith signed with the Braves (I haven't heard anything about the Giants trying to re-sign him except for a QO). So, to sum up, before we even think about adding firepower at the plate, we have a huge amount of work to do to have a decent pitching staff.
At the end of 2018, we though we were in pretty good shape, pitching-wise. We had 5 regular starters, without Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, and they had collectively given us 125 starts during the season.
era war
Madbum 3.26 2.4
Holland 3.57 2.1
Suarez 4.49 0.5
Stratton 5.09 - 0.8
DRod 2.81 2.5
That's 6.7 war out of our 5 starters. For the record, we got 9 or more starts out of Ty Blach, Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, before they became injured. What's more, we seemed to be getting out relief staff to work the way there were intended to. I remember feeling pretty good about the Giants going into 2019 - looking for our young pitching staff to build on 2018 and serve notice around the league that the Giants could again matter.
In 2019, however, our starting pitching let us down. We still managed to win more than we won in 2018 (a whopping 4 games), but not because of our starters. Probably because we got decent offensive seasons out of Kevin Pillar and Evan Longoria. Madbum was again pretty good, perhaps a bit better if measured by WAR, and Samardzija came back and really gave us more than we could have hoped for. Other than that, though:
era war
Madbum 3.90 2.5
Holland 5.90 - 0.8
Suarez 5.79 - 0.4
Stratton gone
DRod 5.64 - 1.4
also
Smardji 3.52 2.9
Beede 5.08 0.1
Anderson 5.44 - 0.5
Pomeranz 5.68 - 0.4
Derek Holland made 7 starts and Logan Webb made 8. The DRod, Madbum, Smardji, Beede, Anderson and Pomeranz sextet made 145 starts. That gives us a total of 1.1 WAR, quite the let down from 2018.
So here we are. Going into 2019, we have work to do on our starters. At least we have some, and hopefully that will include a healthy Johnny Cueto, and a Madbum, although I have a sneaking suspicion that the Giants won't do more than give lip service to re-signing him. That might be just my general sour mood talking, Know what else? Unlike this time last year, our bullpen, perhaps the envy of the league, needs a total rebuild. Tony Watson and Reyes Montoya, both of whom ended the season on the DL. We traded away Melancon and Dyson and Will Smith signed with the Braves (I haven't heard anything about the Giants trying to re-sign him except for a QO). So, to sum up, before we even think about adding firepower at the plate, we have a huge amount of work to do to have a decent pitching staff.
Wednesday, November 27, 2019
The Shadow Zone
Here's a graph from an article at MLB by Mike Petriello about the ChiSox getting Yasmani Grandal:
The idea is that Grandal's "elite pitch framing" will greatly improve the team. It turns out that the best team, Arizona, got 400 more called strikes on pitches in The Shadow Zone than the White Sox. So a good team can get about 200 more called strikes than an average team. Three strikes and your out and nine strikes and you've got a clean inning so 200 more strikes is 67 more outs or 22 clean innings. That seems like a lot. (I realize that's a crude computation but I stole it from Tangotiger.) This pitch-framing stuff seems pretty important.
Below is chart from Tangotiger Blog which always has interesting stuff, even if much of it is beyond me, that personalizes things a bit:
It shows that Buster Posey is still a top pitch-framer. I think it is interesting that the best guys are just over 50% and the rest just below that line. It's a small advantage but it helps over the long haul, like a lot of things in baseball.
Just something I came across this morning and thought you might like it because the Giants are good at it. At least it seems that way! I peruse this stuff at a fairly casual level and don't dig too deeply so I'm not sure I grasp it all the way, but I like the challenge of learning new things.
Happy Thanksgiving from RMC!!
--M.C.
p.s. click on the charts to enlarge
The idea is that Grandal's "elite pitch framing" will greatly improve the team. It turns out that the best team, Arizona, got 400 more called strikes on pitches in The Shadow Zone than the White Sox. So a good team can get about 200 more called strikes than an average team. Three strikes and your out and nine strikes and you've got a clean inning so 200 more strikes is 67 more outs or 22 clean innings. That seems like a lot. (I realize that's a crude computation but I stole it from Tangotiger.) This pitch-framing stuff seems pretty important.
Below is chart from Tangotiger Blog which always has interesting stuff, even if much of it is beyond me, that personalizes things a bit:
It shows that Buster Posey is still a top pitch-framer. I think it is interesting that the best guys are just over 50% and the rest just below that line. It's a small advantage but it helps over the long haul, like a lot of things in baseball.
Just something I came across this morning and thought you might like it because the Giants are good at it. At least it seems that way! I peruse this stuff at a fairly casual level and don't dig too deeply so I'm not sure I grasp it all the way, but I like the challenge of learning new things.
Happy Thanksgiving from RMC!!
--M.C.
p.s. click on the charts to enlarge
Sunday, November 17, 2019
Ballpark Changes
Alex Pavlovic at NBC Sports has a piece about the changes to the ballpark. The bullpens will be moved from the foul areas to right-centerfield. They'll probably add a new row of premium on-field seating past the dugouts in the new space. That will require more nimble ball dudes, don't you think? A chunk of Triples Alley will be converted to the bullpen area. No surprise, they talked about that last season. Will it change the park dynamic? Some--the current 421 feet will drop to about 410 feet, according to the article, which will certainly turn some long outs and some triples into homers. Brandon Belt might even crack 20 bombs! I suspect it will still be a pitchers' park, just not as extreme. That's OK, a little tweaking never hurt. Speaking of hurt, that will happen less. Ballplayers won't have to negotiate the mound in the foul areas, and that's a good thing. The proximity to the 'pens was a nice feature for fans--you could always wander down there to see the starter warm up before the game even if your tickets were in another section.
December 9-12 is the next big date on the MLB calendar: the Winter Meetings in San Diego. Roster Resource has a projected 26-man roster. (That's another change for 2020.) Cot's Contracts has the payroll picture. And here's the current 40-man roster. You can see that the team looks a lot like last year's team. And despite new people in charge, the club is in the same place. The current roster is not strong enough, and there isn't enough young talent to fill in the gaps. On the plus side, the Giants are a wealthy franchise and have more financial flexibility than they care to admit. Organizational changes are afoot, and that's good. The team needs new blood, new ideas, and new energy. I know they won't call it "rebuilding" because that sends season ticket holders fleeing, but they are clearly "remodeling" and I'm ready to see them pick up the pace.
Perhaps something exciting--or at least notable--will happen in the next few weeks.
--M.C.
December 9-12 is the next big date on the MLB calendar: the Winter Meetings in San Diego. Roster Resource has a projected 26-man roster. (That's another change for 2020.) Cot's Contracts has the payroll picture. And here's the current 40-man roster. You can see that the team looks a lot like last year's team. And despite new people in charge, the club is in the same place. The current roster is not strong enough, and there isn't enough young talent to fill in the gaps. On the plus side, the Giants are a wealthy franchise and have more financial flexibility than they care to admit. Organizational changes are afoot, and that's good. The team needs new blood, new ideas, and new energy. I know they won't call it "rebuilding" because that sends season ticket holders fleeing, but they are clearly "remodeling" and I'm ready to see them pick up the pace.
Perhaps something exciting--or at least notable--will happen in the next few weeks.
--M.C.
Tuesday, November 12, 2019
It's Kapler
After weeks of speculation the Giants finally picked a field manager. Gabe Kapler is a 44-year old SoCal native who most recently managed the Philadelphia Phillies. That was his first job in the hot seat and he got the boot after two seasons (161-163). He also had a stint in the LA front office where he worked with Zaidi. Kapler had a 12-year career in the majors, mostly as an outfielder, playing in over 1100 games and stepping in the box over 3300 times. He quit playing for a year to manage a minor-league club for the Red Sox, then went back to playing. He's done analysis for television as well as for Baseball Prospectus.
I'm not bothered by the fact that things did not go well in Philly. Managing is hard. It isn't easy to do it right the first time. If he survived the interview process he must be pretty committed, and that's all you can ask. I have no idea if he will be a good manager, but I'm happy the team got who they apparently wanted from the start.
The best thing? It's over. No more talk about managers and general managers. Now let's see these guys get to work and give us stuff to cheer about in 2020.
--M.C.
I'm not bothered by the fact that things did not go well in Philly. Managing is hard. It isn't easy to do it right the first time. If he survived the interview process he must be pretty committed, and that's all you can ask. I have no idea if he will be a good manager, but I'm happy the team got who they apparently wanted from the start.
The best thing? It's over. No more talk about managers and general managers. Now let's see these guys get to work and give us stuff to cheer about in 2020.
--M.C.
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