Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Good things come in threes

When Aaron Ryan Rowand got his first full-time gig (2004 White Sox), he put up an impressive .361 OBP. He followed that with two less-than-stellar (.329 and .321) efforts. Rebounding with the Phillies in 2007--his second season with the club--he produced a career high of .374! Signing a nice, fat, comfortable contract with the San Francisco Sabeans after that great year, he's returned to less-than-stellar form with .339 (his career average) and .319 (ouch).

That can only mean one thing: he's poised for the "3rd-time's-a-charm" that's been widely established in the sabermetric literature. Check out the OPS+ sequence 2004-06: 130, 93, 86. Now check it out for 2007-09: 124, 94, 90.

Wow. It's like the Face on Mars. It's so obvious.

Aaron Ryan Rowand is poised for another career year. Right? It goes like this: studly, sucky, sucky. Then studly, sucky, sucky. This is a STUDLY year!!!!

Aaron Rowand should lead off next year.

It's all in the analysis, people.

1 comment:

JC Parsons said...

Did anybody check the link to "sabermetric literature"?