Does a team's spring training record really tell us anything? Surprisingly, it does. A team's spring training record is a statistically significant predictor of its regular-season record, even when taking into account its pre-season projection.Dude. That's awesome. I'm down with statistical significance! Here's more:
In a nutshell, if your team is having an extremely surprising spring training (for good or for bad), you would do well to adjust your expectations accordingly by about three games.Only three? We aren't going to play .857 ball this year? Damn. Only statisticians like Mr. Andrecheck (and hopless Giants junkies like me) can get excited about such significance. Three games in the NL West could separate three teams in 2010. I'm on record as liking the Rockies as the favorites, but I don't see any runaway clubs.
I love this game. Just when you think you've made up your mind about something, someone comes along and makes you re-think it. Mainly, I'm thinking about an .857 win percentage. That's 138 wins.