That's the line at Bovada for the Giants to win the 2016 World Series. You want to make 500 bucks? Put down a hundred on San Francisco and if they pull it off you get your hundred back and a nice little five hundred profit. Another way to say it is 6-to-1. The Chicago Cubs are also 6-to-1 to win the Series this season. That's what you call "playin' the favorites." I still have a betting slip from 1989 when my brother-in-law put down fifty smackers on my behalf for the Giants to win it all at 7-to-1. They came close as you may remember. But this year the Giants are favored. That's not The Giants Way™, man. We are more into the plucky underdog thing, the surprise team, the dark horse. Will the lads and The Boch be able to handle this new role? The pressure, man. Can we handle it?
It's a brave new world, me buckos.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
32 comments:
C'mon, yo. Giants are 6-1 to win the whole enchilada. No one has anything to say about that shit? Jaysus. How many times the Giants been 6-1 to win, eh? Let's hear it!!
One problem is that much of Reno is populated with giants fans, so if they start laying down the money on the giants the odds will change even more in our favor. Those are just betting odds. The team should still be a fan favorite as they do not have that big 45 home run 130 RBI guy, they have Posey, Belt, Pence, and Crawford all who have a chance to hit 20 dingers plus or minus a few. Not sure if Duffy will continue to show power or not. Same with Panik. It is a balanced line up, with good contact, but not a lot of home field long balls. By not having a big bopper like Bonds who can consistently hit the ball into McCovey Cove, we lose a certain amount of homefield advantage. I like the giants chances to get into the playoffs. Of course, there is always the caveat of injuries changing the dynamic.
That's been an issue forever, starting with the Niner's dynasty with Walsh, where West Coast bettors lay so much on the line that the odds go way down for our teams because of all the extra money coming from being able to easily bet on our teams.
We haven't had a big bopper like Bonds since he left, but that did not seem to affect our chances since, particularly in 2010, 2012, 2014. And frankly, only Bonds has been able to consistently hit the ball into McCovey Cove, and yet that didn't seem to help much from 2005-2008, nor hurt much since.
And the greater homefield advantage has been for pitching, once Bonds left, AT&T has been a pitcher's park for the most part, except when it was neutral during the Bonds Superman era. And the Giants loaded up Cueto and Samardzija in order to continue that homefield advantage.
Yes, I think ogc has put the case well. Big boppers don't have much to do with home field advantage in AT&T. Pitching does because flies that would be bopped out elsewhere drop down catchably at AT&T. High-contact hitters who use the whole field do, for the same reason. And of course Bonds was a high-contact hitter, striking out far more rarely than big boppers are wont to do, and a high OBP player because of his walks--had we had, in Bonds's time, the kind of high-contact, keep-the-line-moving team that we now have, and the intensity that we now have, our current incipient Giants dynasty might well have had a longer history.
I suppose the even-year thing is drawing some bettors as well, no one said people who put money down on sports events are logical.
I like this team. I liked last year's team but the injuries were too much. I love the lineup. Good gloves all around, too. I love the beefed-up rotation. I think the team should win a lot of games. It's interesting to be co-favorites. Doesn't happen often. I've a feeling that once the season starts the Giants will fade from the public view a bit as the media darlings (Cubs, Dodgers, etc.) get center stage. The lack of a marquee slugger does make for fewer highlights on EPSN but the Giants have shown that they can win without that. (And you can always pick up a masher on the cheap.) Pitching and fielding, man!
I am really stoked about this club.
This site from Las Vegas lists the doggers at 8:1 and the giants at 20:1. I looked at a London site but they didn't list odds for the 2016 series. You also have to look at the dates the pages were posted. I found a lot that are dated mid-fall, so you have to consider who was signed and who was not at that point.
Yeah I have been watching the odds change throughout the fall and winter. I realize the ephemeral nature of these things but I think it is interesting to see the Giants 'climb the ladder' in the betting world's estimation. Like I said in the post this is new territory--the Giants have recently enjoyed the underdog/spoiler role, this new role as co-favorites ought to be a different kind of fun.
If they can handle being close to being eliminated multiple times, particularly in 2012, they should be able to handle being the favorites.
And if I haven't stated it here yet, I'm stoked/excited/over the top happy about the team as it is right now. The team has gone all in for 2016-2017, and no matter what happens, it'll be fun to watch what happens.
The current odds, 12 Jan, have the Giants and Cubs tied at 5-1 and the NL Los Angeles team at 12-1. This is on OddsShark and Bovada. Any West Coast favorable bias should affect both teams equally, one would think. It looks as though, while sportswriters and nervous fans keep hesitating because Span had injuries in 2015, Cueto was uneven with Kansas City, and Samardzija gave up lots of long balls in the second half of 2015 (and yet was worth 2.7 fWAR), gamblers whose livelihood hangs on their skill at risk assessment have more confidence.
I think they have that confidence because the team addressed it's obvious needs--starting pitching and outfield. All three signings are better than what the team had last season. This was an 84-78 team with a Pythagorean of 89-73, same Pythag as the 92-70 Dodgers. The 8-game difference in the standings was not an 8-game difference in talent. And even if it was that much with LA losing Greinke and SF gaining Cueto you could argue a wash. Obviously they don't play the games on paper (I wonder how many pre-season WS faves have actually won the WS) but the analysis of a team's chances is a serious business involving many heaps of dollars for these Vegas types. And they have to account for fan enthusiasm and mob psychology, too! I imagine a lot of people will bet on the Cubs just to have something to talk about at the water cooler ("yeah I dropped a C-note on the Cubbies, it's gonna be their year, I tell ya").
Betting tilts odds. The LA home crowd bets in Vegas, the SF home crowd bets in Reno. You will always find the odds tilted by the proximity. Always, although I guess the rise of internet gambling sites probably has changed that to some extent. For all the analysis, I would guess that still, the bigger factor is homerism - just put a bet down on your home team because you love them. The hardcore gambler is going to bet games, the people who throw money at world series victors in January are not those people.
If so, better augury yet, since Bovada is Las Vegas. It's those putative D--dg-r patrons and partisans who set these odds.
Well, that's more like it, lads. Good show!
My friend used to bet his WS favorites in Jan. for the N.L. Usually if his
team got to the WS, the odds would be such that if he also be against this team
in Oct. prior to the first WS game. As the odds were significantly different at that
time, he would be able to win no matter which team took the WS. What a country.
We should mention the passing of Monte Irvin, I think it said he was 96. He was there before Willie Mays and was his mentor and friend.
Good god, the Orioles are taking a huge risk. SEVEN years and $161M for Chris Davis? I suppose if they get three years of similar productivity to 2012-2015 they will eat the final four years and call it a wash, but these big slugging first basemen age fast and decline rapidly. Just look at Ryan Howard. If they have that kind of scratch to spend they could have signed both Upton AND Cespedes! Or gotten a pitcher or two or three. Fans dig the long ball, man. (For the record so do I but I like guys who can run and play the field and etc., too!) Not that I care about the damn Orioles, but it makes me appreciate the Giants approach to roster-building.
All this crazy money being thrown around must be a sign that our beloved game is healthy and thriving, right? I know that the Giants, as an organization, seem to be reaching new levels of excellence and prosperity every year. But is that true of everybody else? Do Arizona and Baltimore also have the same financial strength that we seem to enjoy? Guess so. So much $$$$$.... We all should have taken all those hours of wiffle ball much more seriously I guess.
The "OF still available" list is still rather large. Anybody else surprised that Cespedes is still out there? Seems like he is good for 4 WAR on a bad year and 7-8 on a good year. That's a load of value, isn't it? I guess it is always a question of how long can they do it. I'm very happy to get Denard, but I admit that if we had picked up Cespedes, I would have found a way to be very excited. We really needed a CF (and pitching) more than a slugger LF and that is EXACTLY what we got.
I'm surprised no one has signed Cespedes. He has to be expecting Davis-like money at this point. And yeah, there seems no end to the dollars flowing into the game. Lots of "irrational exuberance" in the FA market. Closer to home, do the Giants simply go to arb with Belt or do they work out a longer-term deal like they did with Crawford?
If LF's are a dime-a-dozen, as you like to say, then 1B's are about eight cents-a-dozen. Plus, in Posey, we already have our superstar 1B-of-the-future. Therefore, as much as we all love Belt, it would be stupid to go multi-year, big $ for Belt.
Belt kind of fits the Giants way, though, being athletic and a good fielder and baserunner in addition to the .800 OPS. An all-rounder, really. And I like long-limbed lefties at first! And I was thinking in terms of 3-4 years, covering this year's and next year's arb and 1-2 FA years, not a franchise-player move like Craw but a team commitment to keep the infield intact. 28 years young in April, 4-WAR player, championship experience, it's a good combo. But the Giants do have him under control this year and next and after 2017 a LOT comes off the books, payroll-wise. They'll need to pay Bumgarner at that point! He could be a $30M/year man. This "move Buster to first" thing is still out there, as you say, maybe what they do or don't do with Belt will tell us the team's intentions regarding that timetable.
The Giants have exchanged arbitration figures with Brandon Belt. Belt is asking $7.5 million, the Giants offered $5.3. That is the Giants' record for largest spread. The Chronic notes that the Giants have not settled pre-arbitration since that evil crappy catcher who still stains memories, and must not be named.
That can't be right. Wasn't Lincecum a wider split? Or my memory going?
Have not NOT settled since he who must not be named. In fact is the only one not to settle in Sabean's tenure as GM/VP. Lincecum was close , they were literally about to enter the door for the meeting when his agent started negotiating with the Giants and they worked out the deal.
Yes, my use of the negative negated what I meant. And that is what the Chronic reported, but I should check, as the Chron tends to make stuff up.
Did you see that Ian Kennedy signed a 5-year deal with the KC for $70M? It includes an opt-out. So he goes for $20M less than Samardzija. Question--would you rather have Ian Kennedy and an extra $20M or Samardzija? Or Mike Leake and an extra $10M? Or Scott Kazmir for 3/$48M? Silly questions, I know, as the die has been cast, but this is what it costs to get starting pitchers on the FA market.
Mark's lingo needs updating. J. Upton's new contract means that OK (i.e. non-superstar) LF's are $22M x 12 or $264M per dozen. This equates to 2.64 billion dimes per dozen.
What a ridiculous contract.
I'm much more interested in Wei-Yin Chen getting $80M for five years! :-)
Jayson Werth, Matt Kemp, Alfonso Soriano, people have laid out big bucks for FA OFs before. Hell the Giants went with 5/90 for Pence, that looks cheap now.
So, Cespedes gets more? And goes where?
As far as what is better, I think it helps as to what we are hoping to accomplish with the acquisitions. By himself, Samardzija is a large risk at his contract vs. the guys mentioned, because the other have produced regularly whereas the Shark has only really produced in 2014. But what is it that we needed, for our rotation, reliably regular starters, like Leake, or top of rotation ace production?
We needed ace-level production, is the lesson of 2015, so I like that we swung for the fences by signing Samardzija, though I was wary of the risk involved. But sometimes you just have to risk it. I like to think Rags will do his magic once again, but the Shark is a high wire act, as 2015 showed.
What makes the Samardzija deal even better for the Giants was the signing of Cueto instead of the expected Leake signing. Now we have a co-ace to pair with Bumgarner, Cueto has been an ace for about as long as Bumgarner. So now we are not relying on Samardzija to be rejuvenated by Giants Coaching Mojo into his 2014 version immediately, but now he's a bonus topping on top of the sundae that is our new 1-2 punch of Bumgarner-Cueto, which I believe is the #1 requirement for dominating the playoffs. Plus the potential for another bonus topping if Cain is healthy and can return to prior ace-ness. The more aces the merrier, as our recent history has shown.
I think Kennedy and Leake were overpriced based on their prior performances. Leake less so because I thought he could improve a lot pitching in AT&T, but still more than I thought he should get. Still, I viewed most of them as good middle rotation guys, some with potential to be good enough to be #2, but no co-aces to pair with Bumgarner, so I viewed them as overpriced, though part of the rise in salaries is probably related to the huge jump in revenues for certain teams.
However, based on consensus thoughts on how much each free agent, most of these deals are considered in line with industry thought, while Samardzija got more than expected. But as many know from business opportunities, risk is in the eye of the beholder. For example, in oil, where most saw themselves drilling a dry hole, someone saw the opportunity to tap into shale and draw out shale oil. The Giants gave him more, but they also feel that they know what to do to return Samardzija to his 2014 form, more so than other teams.
The way I see it, Samardzija got paid for his abilities to be an ace. He's only shown it in one year out of four, but that's about all he got too, if he had four years of that, he probably would have gotten around what Cueto got in his contract on AAV basis. Instead, he got something extra to show that potential ace production.
Harking back to the missed opportunity to sign Vlad, and instead signing a bunch of mediocrities, this time the Giants chose to swing for the seats, that's all I can ask for, they narrowly missed on Greinke apparently, but honestly, I prefer Cueto/Samardzija/Span over Greinke/Upton-Cespedes (close enough to get one of them), as it gives us the potential for more aces in the rotation, plus Span is a true CF who can actually field CF well when healthy, plus is a good leadoff hitter to boot.
I feel a lot better about a Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija, Cain, and Peavy rotation than a Bumgarner, Greinke, Cain, Peavy, Heston rotation (though perhaps the Giants could have gotten Leake instead of an OF, but still, not as good a grouping of free agent acquisitions as what we got).
The thing about Cespedes, some people seem to think nothing of our current lineup, demanding a power hitter to go with them, but they are missing some key nuggets of info.
First of all, our offense, even as banged up as we were much of the year, was still ranked among the tops in the NL, and on the road, only the Mets scored more runs than the Giants did. We don't need power to be very good, in fact, we did all that while Pence wasn't available for much of the season. Imagine if he was hitting instead of Maxwell, that's what we got in 2016, hopefully, plus a full season of Span over partial of Aoki, full season of Belt over partial, full season of Duffy, and a healthy Pagan over a very injured one.
On top of that, they seem to be under the misguided notion that power equals playoff success. Studies have shown that HR power has little to do with how well a team does in the post-season, in fact, offense had little impact on playoff success and going deep into the post-season, it was pitching, fielding, bullpen, and a little related to overall team speed, not HR power, not even a high powered offense. No study I'm aware of has shown any significant connection between HR power and success in going deep into the playoffs.
Obviously, we need to score runs to win, but as my studies in PQS has shown, when you have great starting pitching who can dominate a game, most times you will win the game against lesser pitchers, and at least is competitive if up against their aces. And if your team made it to the playoffs, clearly your offense was good enough to win with your pitching.
So that's why I believe in the above studies' results that pitching and fielding is the major core keys to winning championships, and offense is the hygiene, as Geoffrey Moore of Chasm fame called business processes which are necessary but not core to the organization's business. The Giants have had that core production from pitching and defense in 2010, 2012, 2014, and look to have it for 2016-2017 as well, that's the window for now.
Fortune favors the bold, right? Samardzija is a bold move and I am eager to see if he can put his game together. I keep thinking about Vogie, how he put it all together in orange-and-black and was a key player in two championships. I actually think the signings of Kennedy, Leake, Kazmir, and Chen show clearly the cost of starting pitching and that the Giants are taking a rather level-headed risk with Samardzija. And I agree about Cueto, he takes a lot of the pressure off of the rest of the guys and gives Bum the backup he needs.
And I love the Span signing. Think about how big of an impact Pagan made in 2012--I think Span can bring that same thing to CF and leadoff, and he's an even more accomplished fielder.
What I like about the Giants is that they CAN hit homers and they DO hit homers when they need them. The Giants are loaded with good hitters and can put a lot of pressure on the other team because they are hard to strike out, put the ball in play, and run well. And they have guys like Belt, Posey, and Pence who can hit big bombs, too. I like the "lots of arrows in the quiver" approach.
Since the Giants forfeited a first-round draft pick for Samardzija, they plainly have a great deal of confidence in him. If he performs at the lowest full-season level he has performed since he became a full-time starter in 2012, they are paying him a just amount: he has three seasons at 2.7 fWAR and one at over 4 fWAR, and is getting $18M AAV--that is $6.7M per WAR, which is, I think, below current market price. Steamer projects 2.7 fWAR next year, and did so before S signed with the Giants (so is probably conservative). In 2015, S's 2.7 fWAR put him among the top 40 pitchers in MLB; presumably he would have the same kind of ranking in 2016, as his floor. I don't see that the Giants, with that record of performance, and that fair or favorable a contract, are taking all that much of a gamble. Samardzija's floor so far has been at Leake's ceiling.
Since you mentioned the Giants ability to keep the line going, here's an interesting study from a while back regarding that type of hitting and having so many good hitters in the lineup leading to an exponential effect (which I interpret to be as good as homers): http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-exponential-nature-of-offense/
Every guy in the lineup are good hitters for the most part, and even a diminished Pagan would be better than most teams' 7th or 8th hitters, I think, assuming he is healthy enough.
And don't forget Crawford in the list of HR hitters, and I wouldn't be surprised if Duffy joins the crowd too, adding weight and stamina is probably high on his priorities this off-season.
I would temper your statements regarding Samardzija, campanari, when using fWAR.
While his fWAR has been high, his actual baseball production has been on the low side, per bWAR. fWAR assumes a standard production rate based on his peripherals, and while he has great peripherals, he has not been close to standard except in 2014 (and even then, short of standard still, but pretty close). So for him, fWAR has been his potential, but his actual has been very lacking in most years. The key is the Giants returning him to the way he pitched in 2014.
Meanwhile, Cueto had over produced his fWAR by a lot most seasons, but fell short in 2015. And that's why I liked the Cueto signing as tied with Samardzija, because he overproduced regularly while Samardzija underproduced regularly, providing some risk mitigation regarding the Shark. Assuming that 2015 was an aberration for Cueto that the Giants can either fix or simply see Cueto return to form in 2016.
Given that he had all those problems adjusting to KC, it is not a fait accompli that he will simply revert to his prior form, but with Posey being a superlative catcher, and Rags a superlative pitching coach, hopefully between the two of them, they can help ease his transition to the Giants (Hudson did pretty well, so did Peavy and Vogelsong, but Leake had his problems, though hopefully related more to his injury than the team).
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