Giancarlo Stanton goes to the Yankees and Shohei Otani goes to the Angels. The Giants get skunked. By all appearances they gave it their best shot so I can't complain. Now we'll get to see what the real upgrade path looks like. No more speculation about superstars, just the roll-up-your-sleeves-and-get-to-work stuff. They've got a lot of work to do.
--M.C.
32 comments:
The Giants biggest need was shoring up the relief staff. Neither Stanton nor Ohtani would have made a difference in that need. Why haven't they done anything about that?
(I realize that you always have to wait for the big dominoes to fall and that relief, with the exception of high profile closers, are never the big dominoes. I'm just bitching.)
I think the Giants are counting on both Smith and Melancon to be healthy and to deliver a full season's work--that's part of the upgrade plan. Picking up Dyson wasn't just an emergency move, they will probably have a key role for him. Kyle Crick is an emerging piece. I don't expect them to do anything major like sign Brandon Morrow, for example, but a few bodies will show up before Spring Training.
I suppose we can start planning for the Bryce Harper woo-fest in 2018.
Apparently Marcell Ozuna is now a Cardinal.
If the Marlins are intent on gutting their outfield I think the Giants ought to help and grab Christian Yelich.
He's a lefty, unfortunately. Giants could use a right-handed power bat. They could use a serious upgrade in the outfield, too.
In the rule 5 draft, Giants picked up 22 yr old Julian Fernandez from an A team in the Rockies org. He is a reliever who throws 100 mph, although his control is still open to question. The Giants lost Albert Suarez to Arizona.
Giants had the #2 pick. Maybe this guy can be ready next season.
I think MLB should get rid of all these stupid rules and drafts and etc. Just limit the roster sizes at all levels and make everyone who wants to play baseball be a free agent until they sign a contract. No more "team control" (the last vestiges of the reserve clause), no more arbitration, no more free agency and compensation and qualifying offers and all that. It's a pointless exercise in so-called competitive balance. (Note that the Yankees wound up with Stanton anyway, no mechanism in place to stop the rich from getting richer!) And this nonsense about Asian ballplayers and posting rules and etc. Stupid. Why can't Ohtani come and sign and make as much as he wants? Why is it OK to sign a 16-year old Venezuelan but an American has to go through the draft? Dumb. Anyway, that's my rant.
Giants don't look poised to make any big splashes. That might be a good thing since the best talent is already taken. The upgrade path might be more incremental than we'd like.
Fernandez had good control in 2017, pitching at about the same age as the league in the Sally. About 2.8 BB/9, if I remember right, which is pretty good actually.
However, not so good as one advances to higher leagues, he needed to show much more control than that, so he could be pretty wild in the majors.
Something I have not seen anywhere yet is about his other good tendencies, though that relates more to his level of competition, since it is the low minors. One is that he pops up guys like nothing, mostly between 20-40% infield flies, which is great. Second is that he gives up more ground balls than fly balls, which of course leads to more outs and less damage, both good things for a reliever. I'm modestly hopeful he can be a Dirty redux, an A-baller rushed up to the majors, and doing OK.
I think the Giants are actually in a good position to get a playoff spot if they can get healthy returns to normal from Cueto, Melancon, and Smith, plus defensive upgrade in CF.
Our starting rotation was a wreck last season, each with non-recurring issues (hopefully). Bumgarner won't be dirt biking anymore. Cueto hopefully over blister issues with new-ish balls Moore seemed to recover his mechanics in the second half, which was back to normal until that last start (In AZ, where guys who rely on secondary stuff loses it). Samardzija appears to still be learning, but ended the season nicely, mid-3 ERA; he needs to be more consistent. And Cain is gone, and Stratton and Blach will compete, and who knows, maybe Crick too, now that Fernandez is here.
Bullpen is looking much better if healthy. Melancon, Smith, Dyson, Strickland, Gearrin, plus Fernandez or Crick, or maybe Okert, Osich, Moronta. And long relief comes from the guys who lose out on 5th starter, or maybe if Crick can handle that, that'll be his spot if Fernandez makes the team. Those 5 first guys are actually pretty good, if healthy and performing to norms.
The lineup, as bad as it looked at times last season, from late May until Belt was DLed in early August, about 2.5 months, averaged 4.4 runs per game, which is good enough to win if we got pitching, which we didn't during that period where the only good pitcher in the rotation was Blach.
The above should get us to slightly above .500, maybe better. The key to getting into playoff contention is improving the CF defense. Between Span and Gorkys, their poor defense in CF resulted in almost 4 losses over replacement (roughly over 3 and half a win, respectively, using advanced defensive metrics). Just getting average (Duggar?) should push us to playoff contention. I had thought maybe the Giants pick up a defensive CF via the Rule 5.
Adding another bat, either in LF or 3B would also help, but I don't think is necessary now, they could go into the season with just CF defensive upgrade and I'll be happy. McCutchen, even with declining CF skills would be upgrade over what Span did there, plus his great bat would make up for it.
Charlie O. Finley pushed for free agency every year, when they were still working out how things would work with free agency, so he would approve your call for getting rid of all the rules. Under his idea, no long term contracts, you need to resign everyone every year.
But the reason the draft was set up was because the Yankees could wave money in front of kids and get them to sign, hording a lot of the talent. Being able to sign African American players allowed other teams to build up talent during the 50's and 60's.
In addition, bidding went crazy for the young players who had never played a day of MLB baseball, getting way more than any major leaguer was getting, and you know the failure rate is very high. Just look at the Carribean players Top 10 list for bonuses, maybe one in the ten actually did anything for a long time (been better lately with Cubans coming in).
Not that I'm against the idea of "everybody free agent", but these are the reasons why they were put in place, and I have no solution better than the current system.
In any case, the Players Association would be against the free agency idea unless teams can still sign some players to long term deals. And they are the ones that OK the draft and how international free agency works, they will need to be on board with any plan made.
The Chronicle headline today: Giants Leave Winter Meetings With Options. Well, of course they do. Know what they don't leave winter meetings with? Accomplishments. Sorry to put a damper on the festive mood, but we ended last season, which was horrible, with needs. Significant needs. We now seem to be re-thinking those needs, or perhaps, re-positioning the optics so that we can claim that the needs weren't really that severe. I'm not convinced. Not that the Giants don't have time to make an impact, but even with a big bump in performance from our good players who played like shit, we are not close to a playoff contender. I guess I should trust that the Giants' management is working their way through the trade and free agent markets and will make some intelligent choices. I still have angst.
I'm disappointed by the lack of action, but I'm also glad they didn't buy someone just because they were on the shelf. Some targeted upgrades are needed, but some bounce-backs from key players are reasonable things to count on. I really think the long-term improvement is all about younger players, and the Giants seems reluctant to trade theirs so it is hard for them to get young players in return, and the veterans who might help cost too much, not just in dollars, but prospects/draft picks, etc. I hope they can find some key pieces, but after the Ohstantoni Show ended I was prepared to be patient.
As long as teams can spend however much they want there will always be imbalances and the rich teams have always gamed the system and will continue to do so no matter what MLB puts in place to achieve "balance." I just think ALL players should be subject to the same rules and the fewer rules the better and the sooner they are free agents the better. The Players Association is obviously going to protect the status quo, but more money needs to move down the ladder to younger players and especially minor-leaguers. Right now MLB is drowning in money and the players are actually getting less of it, their piece of the pie is shrinking. That's something the PA ought to address, too.
We'll, I guess the Giants did do something. Matt Moore is now apparently a Ranger. 2 minor league relievers is the return. Matt Moore looked so good in 2016, last year, not much.
I was hoping that Moore would be the comeback player of the year. I look at his stuff and it is good. Control, especially from the stretch eluded him last year, but with a new pitching coach, maybe he could have found it. If he does it won't be with the giants. It looks like we created a new hole, in an effort to patch another one. I hope this move comes on the doorstep of a move they are about to make and they needed the money. Because Moore has an easy motion, I thought it might be much more possible to straighten out his control issues, than it may have been for Jonathan Sanchez, or Tim Lincecum. Who are the prospects we got in return? Are the prospects, or minor league place holders? Seems as if we traded Moore when his value was at its lowest. I expect that the giants will make a move soon. I just hope it is not for a lefty power hitter, with and OBP of 300. I am not sure that third base is our problem, it is the outfield and possibly pitching. We saw Moore's downside, and it was ugly, but he does have an upside. We saw it sporadically and I was hoping he could harness it. We need for the giants brass to make some good moves now.
I didn't see that one coming. Shedding salary? But beefing up the corps of young arms is good--Israel Cruz is only 20.
I agree with nomisnala. Last year has to have been a low point for Moore, it seems like he had only an upside from there. So we have shed $9 million in salary - seems odd that this is significant if we would have taken on Stanton. And we have 2 starter spots to fill. But maybe there is another signing coming that will make positive use of some of that money.
The Giants get Sam Wolff: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=wolff-001sam and Israel Cruz: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cruz--002isr and also the Giants apparently gave the Rangers $750,000 of international bonus pool money. I have no idea what that's about.
Now LA has apparently traded Adrian Gonzalez and Charlie Culbertson and Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir so as to re-acquire Matt Kemp.
Bizarre. I suppose it is a roster spot thing. This opens up their 40-man, they must have new pieces they want to plug in.
Seems like the Giants are just throwing in the towel on the rest of the decade. Thrilling approach they have. Yuck.
“Throwing in the towel on the rest of the decade” = clearing enough payroll space so that they can deal with two serious problem areas, say CF and 3B by signing a fine glove (Dyson? Hamilton?) for CF and combination of fine glove and power (Frazier) for the other? If Arroyo is the answer at 3B, Frazier could move to 1B, allowing Belt—if unconcussed—to be traded for a good young OF (Bradley, Jr.?), thus dealing with the remaining positional problem and also permitting a strengthening of the bullpen, if needed once Melancon and Smith are healthy, and Crick and S. Dyson are on staff for a full season. Some throwing! Some towel!
Of course this, above, is a plan, not a prediction. Players get hurt; they underperform. But prudent calculation of risks, such as that of losing draft picks because of being a repeated CBT violator, isn’t synonymous with a towel-toss, I hope.
They haven't done or come close doing a single thing on your outline. They have dumped a minor salary for some not so great prospects. I see a commitment to mediocrity.
The Giants won't ever say they are rebuilding out loud. They are rebuilding, of course. They are also counting on bounce-backs from the stars. And they seemed determined to beat this CBT thing. It's a delicate balance as they found out last season. I want to see some fresh blood but I don't want them to sign some 30-something FA (unless it is short-term) just because they feel they have to.
I have to believe there is a purpose to trading Moore, and that is more than the $9 mil or so they save in salary. If they were willing to take on Stanton, there is no reason to think that they are throwing in the towel now. What they have in mind, exactly, is a mystery to me, but remember that the trades usually come out of the blue, not because they have been talked up incessantly by everyone in the media and lunatic fringe.
Signing Todd Frazier to anything more than 1-year, $4M would be the kind of dumb move that they should avoid. They could turn the Moore $9M into 2 good Relief Pitchers - that would make some sense, at least. Room would probably be much cheaper than that, too.
Romo, that is.
At least this guy from Rule 5--Julian Fernandez--is exciting.
The latest rumor is Evan Longoria (who is owed $86M for five years) and the Giants dumping salary (Span or Pence) on the Rays. But that would cost too much in prospects (the Rays have to get something) and just the kind of long-term thing I want to see the team avoid. Longoria is great, but he looks like he's at that decline-phase tipping point where (at age 32) it all goes downhill.
Giants need youth. Targeted low-rent pickups for key spots (CF defense for example, or a LOOGY, some bench power, etc.) seem like the strategy. The big splashes don't look so great to me. The team seems determined to avoid the luxury tax so that's going to limit their options.
We just have to count on bounce-backs from star players already on the payroll.
Evan Longoria is just a more deceivingly-crappy version of Todd Frazier - plus, we'd be saddled w/ his contract for several years. Not a fan of that idea. So far, I'd rather see them give 3B to one of the Kids & commit to it than sign one of these over-the-fill, declining types.
As far as bounce-backs, here are my predictions:
- Crawford will, for sure. There were so many factors involved in his 2017 Season that had nothing to do w/ ability, & he wasn't that bad anyway. He'll be back.
- Pence will not, but could be a valuable & inspirational bench player.
- Span will not & will be a cranky, crappy drag on the Team.
- Sandoval? Who the hell knows? Not counting on anything, so I'll be surprised to see a contribution. No $ risk, though.
Everything's gonna be OK - we re-signed Nick Hundley.
Geez ... so far, we've traded Moore & re-signed Hundley, & lost Suarez, too. This Rule V pick-up had better mature quickly.
Injury-free seasons for MadBum, JohnnyC, Will Smith, and Mark Melancon are what I'm hoping for. Get that 1-2 punch working at both ends of the game.
Well, I guess the Giants weren't that high on Christian Arroyo after. He and Denard Span are now Tampa Bay Ray's and Evan Longoria is now a Giant. So now, another outfielder is needed.
Sorry to see the Giants getting older and taking on lots of $$ commitments for the future; glad to see them with a Gold Glove third baseman for sterling IF defense in 2018, gaining right-handed power that has been reliable for years, staying enough below the CBT in 2018 for them to keep strengthening the team, and allowing roster space for Slater/Duggar. Being able to bat Longoria behind Posey may help with run production too, not to mention keeping the team from having to rely on Sandoval at all.
I think that is a mistake. Arroyo promised to be a good major leaguer, at a low cost. for quite some time, with Sandoval as a place holder. Unnecessary and expensive move. What we need is outfield help. Now who will lead off. Now they could have an infield of Arroyo and Duffy once Duffy gets back.
The Giants lost 98 games last year. 25 of those losses, by my count, was when a Giant reliever was on the mound. Not that starters were stellar by comparison, we got too few innings and too many losses. Samardzija and Moore each had 15 losses and Cain and Blach each had 11. You can, of course, blame some of those on a punk offense. But when a reliever enters a game, he doesn't get a loss unless the team is tied or ahead and he gives it up. 25 is too many, a reliever's only job is to prevent exactly that from happening. So while we are taking on money, at least long term and actually downgrading last year's slugging percentage (hopefully a blip more than a trend for Longoria), we still need pitching. And outfielders.
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