I suspect that everyone is happy turning the page on 2020 and that all of us are looking forward to better things in 2021. Perhaps one of those things will be a full season of baseball! The game has other problems besides the pandemic--labor relations, for one--so it is hard to know if everyone can get together and pull it off. Things will continue to be different. Things will continue to be uncertain. But I like to be optimistic so I'll hope for the best and talk about baseball and the Giants here at RMC as if all is normal and that we will start Spring Training at the end of next month.
The Giants were a nice surprise last season, showing an improved offense that scored runs early and often and gave the team a fighting chance in many games. Alas, the pitching was not up to par and that kept the team from any chance of consistent winning. Still, they finished close to .500 (29-31) and were more interesting than expected. Over a full 162-game season I suspect the team's weaknesses would have been more exposed and they might have lost a little of that luster by the end. But that was 2020 and we are on to 2021 now.
The Giants have not made any big moves and I don't expect them to make any either. They will continue to improve around the margins and to make incremental upgrades. They are, by their own admission, "sticking to the process." It's frustrating for fans but I think it's the right way to go. The Padres are making headlines with splashy acquisitions of big-name stars, but they are in the right position to do that. They have a good team with a young core of talent and they are quickly closing the gap between themselves and the front-running Dodgers. They had a surplus of prospects that they could trade, and that's what they did. The Giants are not there. They don't have the talented young core (yet) and they don't have a surplus of tradeable youngsters. The Giants aren't close enough to the top teams to make up the difference with fancy free agents or wheeling-and-dealing. It's a re-build, and it takes time.
Go to the site called Cot's Contracts. Click on the payroll link. All the answers are there. This season, Buster Posey, Johnny Cueto, Kevin Gausman, Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford will make a combined $110M or so. Next year only Longo ($19M) is guaranteed a contract and both Buster and JohnnyC have low-cost buyouts. Longo has a buyout in 2023 and there are no other commitments on the payroll after that. I think you can see how that informs the team's decision-making.
The Giants highest-rated prospects are mostly pretty young and still at A- and AA-levels. I expect they will be fast-tracked to AAA and get early call-ups, but it will be a year or two before they will be in the lineup regularly. Thus we will have more of the infamous Zaidi "churn" and we will continue to see an emphasis on player development on the major league club. That's Kap's forte--that's why he was hired.
I suppose I've been beating around the bush and what I mean to say is that I don't have high expectations for the 2021 Giants. I think they will be fun and interesting, but I don't think they will make much noise. I'd love to be wrong, of course. But I'm reading all the gauges and all the needles are pointing toward a .500 team at best. I can live with that. It's where they happen to be on the cycle, and they just need to keep the faith and keep going forward. Things will get better!
I hope everyone has a healthy and prosperous New Year.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
20 comments:
I agree with your assessment. Rebuilding the farm system takes time, splashy free agents are no short cut. That also lets out trades because everyone wants youth in return for established quality. So continue to troll the bargain bins and hope to find some more players that perform above their "potential." As some of the youngsters develop and some of the veterans get off the books, then consider the big name free agent pool. Not in 2021, though.
I have seem the SF Giants linked with rhp Tomoyuki Sugano of the Tokyo Yomiuri Giants. It is odd, however, that I have seen so few sources (which includes mlbtraderumors) when normally every blog and "news" site jumps on and reiterates any rumor. Apparently there are six clubs interested and he has yet to even decide whether to commit to US baseball. Still, the Giants need more pitching and I am a big fan of Japanese nationals. Nor will he command Kenta Maeda-type money. As I understand, he has until January 7 to decide to whether, and which offer to take.
We can probably use him on the roster. I just do not want a wasted year. I would be happy with a team that can get a wild card birth. But as an aging giant fan, I do not have that many years to throw away to lousy or noncompetitive teams. I wasted too much time in the mid 70's through the first half of the 80's and then again in the 90's. Last year we hit but could use more pitching. Previously the team pitched but could use more hitting. Would be nice to have a decent amount of each so that we will not just be watching our favorite players, but we can watch the giants have a chance for the post season. Fans love their teams, but always prefer winners. We can live for the future, and still aspire for the here and now.
I think there are lots of ways that the Giants can be competitive. Signing more good pitchers is probably the best way to get there! But there was no way they could have pulled off the trade for Darvish, for example. The Cubs got five guys including a proven ML-starter, Zach Davies. Same with Snell--that took four guys.
The best FA pitcher is Trevor Bauer. He supposedly wants $30-40M/yr. Don't see the Giants doing that unless it was for a shorter term, like three years.
If the Giants can get some consistency in the bullpen that could make a big difference, too. I've been focusing on starters but certainly they could improve the 'pen with less cost/risk.
Giants sign backup catcher Curt Casali.
Both Tromp and Bart have minor league options left so it makes sense to have a seasoned ML player behind Buster. You can never have enough catchers.
I did not expect them to trade a bunch of very good prospects for one aging star pitcher, or one slightly younger star pitcher. Pitchers are injury prone and throwing out big money for a star and giving up the future does make sense. But signing a few solid starters and enhancing the relief core seems like a good idea. If and basically only if Posey gets back to the 300 hitter with 20 plus homers will the team be significantly competitive. If he once again is a 270 hitter who hits 5 home runs in a season, he cannot bat 3rd, 4th or 5th anymore. His lack of RBIs in his last year in the high RBI slot cost the team a lot of runs. Bochy was not going to change that however. Still not sure what to think of Longoria.
I think the improvement in fielding and game management with Posey at catcher will be worth a lot. He might not be a power threat any more, but he can still hit, and the Giants have 3-4-5 guys. Buster can hit lower in the lineup on this team.
I wonder if the Giants would be more willing to take a chance on a guy like Tomoyuki Sagano than, say, Trevor Bauer. Bauer of course is famous for his baggage, one of those celebrities who should probably stop talking and tweeting and just get to work. That could be a bad fit in the Bay! Plus his injury history and big variation from year-to-year make him too risky.
Sagano would be more marketable, and probably a more predictable performer. I've seen the rumors that the Giants are interested, but I don't put stock in that stuff. They could make a splash like that, I mean they could "afford" it, certainly.
Johnny Cueto is emerging as a very important fellow. The Giants really need a solid, healthy season from a veteran at the top of the rotation. This is it for him in orange-and-black, I'm pretty sure they'll buy out his option next season.
Last year Cueto had difficulty limiting his pitches. He was often around 100 pitches if he was able to make it to the 5th inning. Teams figured out how to lay off his bad pitches, and to foul off close pitches, and it would consistently drive up his pitch count. For his success, he must avoid these situations. As the games progressed he made too many fat pitches. It was not the Cueto we had grown to watch and love. Posey definitely will bring better defense, and stability and confidence in the pitching staff as he has been an elite receiver. We just do not know at this point if Posey will regain his power stroke or not. Both he and Longoria seem to get into slumps when they become pull happy. Neither hits that many home runs any more that they should be pull happy. They are both better hitters when they hit all over the field. There will be plenty of inside pitches that they can turn on.
The difference between Sugano and Bauer is probably on the order of twenty million dollars a year. The Giants probably could afford either, should they really want to, but there is no reason to think that they are interested in putting 30 mil into one pitcher. Nor should they.
Bauer is a nonstarter but Sugano is an interesting case.
Sugano is apparently staying in Japan.
Why would he want to come to the USA? Frankly, with the surging COVID risk and The Real Lunatic Fringe running amok in D.C., what foreigner in his right mind would give up a good job and move here?
Too bad! I'd love to get some new, exciting overseas talent
Sugano will be a Giant, just not a San Francisco Giant. He apparently has a contract that allows him to opt out each year for the length of his contract.
From MLBTR:
Sugano will remain a member of the Yomiuri Giants, with whom he has dominated since making his pro debut in 2013. Sugano owns a stellar 2.34 ERA over 1,362 innings with the Giants, and he has won two MVPs and a pair of Pitcher of the Year awards in Japan. He’ll make around $8MM with the Giants in 2021, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic relays. With another excellent season, though, Sugano could wind up in a major league uniform before the 2022 campaign.
They mention that he has a four-year contract but as you say with opt-outs each year. Man, what great deal for him! Too bad we don't get a shot at him but maybe next time.
Wow. Tommy Lasorda died. I thought that guy would live forever. I remember when he became the manager. I was in high school, or maybe just getting out and starting college. Walter Alston had been there forever and he was one of those Famous Old Farts young fans have a hard time with. I mean, like, who would root for a team because of the manager? When I was a young fan I cared nothing about owners, GMs, managers, coaches, salaries, free agency, stadium financing, etc. I just wanted more Tito Fuentes and Bobby Bonds and whatnot.
Anyway Lasorda took over the Dodgers and he was such a clown it was hard to take him seriously and of course the rivalry meant we showered him with abuse every time he showed his face. And he loved showing his face! He use to walk real slow and wave his hat and blow kisses at us in the stands. If anyone could be called "gnomish" it was Lasorda. That was great baseball theater, now that I look back on it. Back then it was just "Fuck the Dodgers and Lasorda and All the Rest" and that was that! What with Candlestick and the lousy teams it was a hard time to be a Giants fan. Even the good clubs in the 80s always came up short.
Anyway, RIP Tommy. You really stuck it to us! I still get the heebee-jeebees when I think about Ron Cey. He was the other gnomish guy on the team and I'm willing to bet he is one of the best hitters in the history of Candlestick Pack. We probably won't see another goofball-type manager again. Joe Maddon had his schtick for a little while but that act faded. Lasorda somehow could pull off the serious part of the job, like winning championships, but still mug for the camera and generally act like the class cut-up in high school. He seemed to be really well-liked by people in the game, so he wasn't a dick, and he stayed around long after his 20-year managing career.
Giants trade Sam Coonrod for Carson Ragsdale, a 22-year old RHP w/ NCAA experience who has yet to see pro ball.
They want Ragsdale to be a starter. He will likely begin the year in A-ball. He's a big guy, 6'8" and 225 lbs., and was originally a position player and then became a reliever in college (So. Florida).
The Giants obviously have a lot of RHPs on the roster! Coonrod's departure opens up a spot on the 40-man.
Could Ragsdale, not be the next Rags, but the next Joe Nathan?
As Impeachment #2, House of Representatives Phase, wraps up, I offer this headline from SFGate:
'San Francisco Giants owner Charles B. Johnson donated max amount to pro-QAnon Rep. Lauren Boebert'
There needs to be some sort of campaign to rid the Giants of this asshole, or, at least, get him to understand that the people here won't tolerate his ways. He's donated to every smarmy thing that exists, while reflecting nothing about the City where his Team plays.
Andrew Baggarly likes to talk politics. He posted an invitation (on Twitter) to Giants fans to talk about Charles Johnson and his donations.
They did a profile on Johnson the Elder (his son is now the Face of Ownership) a year ago in The Athletic. Can't remember if it was Baggs or not. What stood out was how many people liked the guy, talking about his personal qualities, that he was known as a really nice guy who treated people well, etc. Seems so at odds with the causes he funded!
Sure, it would be nice to have a billionaire owner who was also more openly progressive, or at least not as horribly right-wing as this guy, a sort of closet conservative (like Magowan) instead. But MLB, like all sports, is a Billionaire Boys Club, and we don't usually get to choose which billionaire will favor us with his largesse and buy the club for us. So, I take what I can get, even if I have to hold my nose.
Interestingly, Gabe Kapler has to be the most "woke" manager in all of baseball, right up there in US pro sports with Steve Kerr as far as progressive politics.
In SF you would think the ownership would be of the progressive ilk. The new conservatives are more like QAnon conspiracy theorists and not like the conservatives of old. I lived in California when Reagan was President and thought he was rather conservative. I have live now in a liberal part of the reddish state of Florida. We had a moderate conservative Governor a while back in Charlie Crist, but the republican party turned far right and Crist became an independent and later a democrat. He was the best governor since Lawton Chiles and Bob Graham who were democrats. Buddy Mackay finished out the term of Chiles after his death. Jeb Bush often went against the will of the people, even when the people voted on a statewide referendum. Bush would find a way to not employ the referendum. Most moderates, Independents, and democrats still believe that Bush reversed the results of the 2000 election in favor of his brother. But the billionaire oligarchs seem to have an inordinate amount of control over our politics and over baseball. But it is the players like Aubrey Huff, and Coonrod, that seem like the outliers when it comes to politics and giants players. Even with the owner donating to QAnon, I am still going to be a big time giants fan, even if it means i will temporarily purchase less giants souvenirs. I have a houseful of them anyway, and my children and spouse can split them up when I pass on. It is all our hopes I guess that we pass on before our children and spouse. As I digressed, it seems that Johnson has left his politics out of his hiring of his baseball management team, and that it seems, is a good thing.
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