Take a look at the list of free agent outfielders:
Left Fielders
Albert Almora (29)
Andrew Benintendi (28)
Michael Brantley (36)
Kole Calhoun (35)
Willie Calhoun (28)
Aledmys Diaz (32)
Corey Dickerson (34)
Adam Duvall (34)
Ben Gamel (31)
Robbie Grossman (33)
Trey Mancini (31)
Andrew McCutchen (36)
Joc Pederson (31)
David Peralta (35)
Tommy Pham (35)
Chad Pinder (31)
A.J. Pollock (35)
Jurickson Profar (30)
Center Fielders
Greg Allen (30)
Albert Almora (29)
Jackie Bradley Jr. (33)
Lorenzo Cain (37)
Jonathan Davis (31)
Adam Duvall (34)
Michael Hermosillo (28)
Odubel Herrera (31)
Travis Jankowski (32)
Aaron Judge (31)
Kevin Kiermaier (33) – $13MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout
Jake Marisnick (32)
Tyler Naquin (32)
Brandon Nimmo (30)
Brett Phillips (29)
Kevin Pillar (34)
A.J. Pollock (35)
Magneuris Sierra (27)
Right Fielders
Albert Almora (29)
Luis Barrera (27)
Jackie Bradley Jr. (33)
Kole Calhoun (35)
Travis Demeritte (28)
Joey Gallo (29)
Ben Gamel (31)
Robbie Grossman (33)
Mitch Haniger (32)
Aaron Judge (31)
Nomar Mazara (28)
Andrew McCutchen (36)
Wil Myers (32)
Tyler Naquin (32)
Chad Pinder (31)
Stephen Piscotty (32)
Then go to FanGraphs and sort the leaderboard for outfielders. (I set a minimum of 300 ABs.) What you get is a list of 113 players. Free agent Aaron Judge of course leads the list with his ridiculous 11.4 fWAR. After the ~6-WAR group of Yordan Alvarez, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Jeff McNeil you come upon another free agent, Brandon Nimmo (5.4 fWAR). That's a couple of guys that would help any ball club. Judge would require a massive commitment. FanGraphs thinks it will be about 8 years and $300M. Nimmo's projection is 5 years and $100M. (They also think it will take 5 years and $130M to get Carlos Rodón).
It's not my money. The Giants have plenty, it seems, so they should spend freely. Albatross contracts won't be a problem in four or five years because SFG Inc. will have gobs of cash flowing in from their many other subsidiary (real estate) businesses. At least that's what it seems like--who knows the real story? It's a private concern, not a public corporation, so we'll never know for sure what kind of wealth they really have.
Here's something to think about. The Giants have two players, Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater, that grade out at #34 (Yaz, 2.2 WAR) and #37 (Slater, 2.1 WAR). If you sort the list for "CF" instead of "OF" those two players are #13 and #15. Both players are still arb-eligible. Yaz is a FA in 2026, Slater in 2025.
It's hard to find good major-league outfielders. There aren't that many of them. And if you expect them to play centerfield you make the list even smaller. A CF platoon of Yaz and Slater is better than what a lot of teams can put out there.
What do you think the Giants should do to improve their outfield for 2023?
--M.C.
8 comments:
There seems to be a lot of pressure on FZ and co. to sign a big name from free agency. To add star power to put butts in seats. I say "seems" because it is based on what I read, stuff like Grant Bisbee in the Athletic constantly harping on Aaron Judge, stuff like that. Whether FZ feels that pressure, I don't know. If FZ has a master plan, beyond the obvious stuff he has said, like rebuilding the farm teams and being open to all possibilities, it is a mystery to me. That's not a bad thing, you don't want to be too transparent with your plans in a competitive business, lord knows, Brian Sabean never was. He is some thoughts from Dave Flemming: https://www.knbr.com/2022/11/09/dave-flemming-breaks-down-giants-primary-position-of-need-this-offseason/
Outfield, for both defense and for offense. Shortstop, not so much. Pitching, sure.
We cannot go into 2023 and hope to compete with the same weak-hitting group in the outfield, even if they re-sign Joc Pederson. It would not bother me to see them replace all the outfielders, although I expect Yaz and Slater will be there, and I read today that they are going to offer Wade a contract.
I agree about the shortstop. I think the speculation is being driven by the free agency of Correa, Turner, Bogaerts and others. We have Crawford, and don't we have another SS in the minors that is supposed to be hot shit? All those free agents will want 6 or 7 years.
I read where Carlos Rodon is projected to get a 5 year contract. I don't know if FZ will go that length at $25+ mil AAV, nor do I think he necessarily should. De Grom is not expected to net more than a 3 year contract, but he hasn't pitched a full season lately.
Rodon is a Boras client. I expect to see outfielders held up until Judge signs and of course Boras will produce as much drama as possible before Rodon signs.
What are the odds the Mets make a play for Judge? What are the odds that it escalates into a bidding war with the Yankees? My sense is that FZ has a dollar value that he won't go beyond. At least, he hasn't yet. The Giants can "afford" Judge, but that doesn't mean there is no amount they won't pay. If it were me, and it very much is not for so many reasons, I would try to sign Nimmo ASAP and then pay for some pitching and another bat.
I read that the Giants have declined Evan Longoria's option. So that is another position to fill.
They may sign Longo anyway. They've talked about him in a bench/platoon role. It depends on how they feel about David Villar.
Someone like Judge or Correa would improve the team, that's for sure. BCraw has one year left on his contract. No shifts next year means more pressure on the SS and 2B to cover more ground.
I like Nimmo. He'd be a real upgrade.
I still think the best thing to do first is sign Rodon.
Giants gave Joc a QO ($19.6M). He'd be a fool not to take it. I think we have a DH for next season.
They also gave a QO to Rodón. He'll decline it. If he signs elsewhere Giants get a draft pick.
The Padres signed their closer Robert Suarez to a 5-year deal ($46M). That's a big contract for a reliever.
Diaz got $102M for 5 years. But he's a superstar there.
Astros just re-signed Rafael Montero for $34.5M/3 yrs. The bullpen was huge for Houston in the post-season. Relief pitching is going up in price!
From David Pinto:
These contracts seem on the high side to me, both for their length and their expectations. Relievers, due to small sample size effects, can vary wildly in their results from year to year. Just look at Montero’s career to see an example of that. It strikes me that the expectation for both of these pitchers should be about three WAR over the next three years, meaning that teams are valuing a WAR at about $11 million.
I believe that’s good news for the current crop of free agents. For example, I’d value Aaron Judge as a six WAR player. Given he’s over 30 and building in a 10% decline per year, he should be expected to generate 24.5 WAR in five seasons, worth $270 million. A contract that went ten years would be worth about $430 million.
Judge and others will have good arguments for that amount of money. It seems like it would be much more difficult to replace an elite position player than an elite reliever. I suspect that the MLBPA will have a lot less to complain about when it comes to free agency after this winter.
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