Now that 2022 is coming to a close let's take a look at the state of the team for next season. Here's a link to the official 40-man roster. I also rely on FanGraph's Roster Resource Depth Chart. And of course you have to keep track of the payroll and that's where you need Cot's Contracts. (All these links are on the sidebar.)
The outfield is getting close to a finished product. The corners will be manned by FNGs Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto. Centerfield will be a Mike Yastrzemski/Austin Slater platoon and we'll see both backing up in LF and RF. Ideally Joc Pederson will only see time at DH and 1B but I suppose there will be an occasion or two where he lumbers out to left. J.D. Davis has also played LF and LaMonte Wade, Jr. has most of his experience in RF. Luís González has also mostly played RF. He's younger than Wade and has an option remaining. It doesn't seem like they are chasing another OF.
Starting pitching looks well-stocked. Obviously Logan Webb will be the number one with Alex Cobb and probably the FNG lefty Sean Manaea in the next two spots. FNG righty Ross Stripling will likely be the fourth man. Both Anthony DeSclafani and southpaw Alex Wood are in the mix as fifth starter. Jakob Junis would ideally be a swingman. I expect to see ultra-prospect Kyle Harrison get a promotion during the season.
The bullpen was improved with the addition of Taylor Rogers, Tyler's brother. He should be an excellent lefty complement to closer Camilo Doval. Righties Tyler Rogers and John Brebbia will have their lefty counterparts in Sam Long and Scott Alexander. This is an unfinished group. Another late-inning/high-leverage arm or two (or three) would be great.
The infield is a concern. Right now J.D. Davis is the third baseman, backed up by Wilmer Flores and David Villar. Wilmer of course will back up at both 2B and 1B. Wade, Jr. is a lefty-hitting 1B option (Davis and Villar have also played 1B). Thairo Estrada is the second baseman and Brandon Crawford is the shortstop. Estrada right now is the only real option to back up at SS. Isan Díaz provides emergency depth at both spots. Seems a bit thin here.
Speaking of thin, I think catching is the great unknown. Obviously they are committed to Joey Bart as the starter. He will need a quality backup or two. Austin Wynns is still on the roster and FNG Blake Sabol is listed as a catcher as well as an OF. Here's a spot that could use some roster-churning magic from FZ and Co.
Speaking of FZ he talks about L'Affaire Correa both here and here. He says all the right things. I like when he says that when you are "trending on Twitter" it is "never a good thing!" He takes his job seriously but seems to keep his sense of humor. I suspect there will be lots of roster moves between now and next spring.
Happy New Year!
Go Giants!
--M.C.
18 comments:
You list a lot of FNGs…
Yes. There was certainly room to improve over this past season's 81 wins. I think this team projects to do better than that already and I see this team as unfinished. Let's get some more effin' new guys!
We lost some games by losing Rodon. The greatest hitting team finds wins difficult if the pitching does not hold up. Wish we still had a co-ace. If Harrison comes up and start off like a young Juan Marichal. Giants could be much more of a force. A few career years and the giants might surprise. An injury ridden season like 2022 and the giants could fall backwards.
Some final thoughts for 2022. I think the Correa deal went down as I speculated. The Giants found something that they thought might be a concern, and Boras was quick to yank his client and deal directly with the Mets owner. Remember his statements about how "all the medical information was known because he was a free agent last year"? How quick he was to claim that the Giants had enough time but that they didn't contact him? Boras played Steve Cohen like a hungry bluegill, until his medical exam also suggested caution. Good for the Giants, it is one thing to not have much value in a 13 year contract in years 11, 12, and 13; it is something else again to not have much value in years 7, 8, 9 and thereafter.
But if I find fault with the Giants it is in their statement that they have the financial resources to compete with anybody. They may have the resources, but clearly that was not their intent. They were interested in signing one, and only one high-dollar value free agent. They tried Judge, then moved to Correa, then there were none left. They were never about to sign both Judge and Rodon (and, quite frankly, I think they erased Rodon's number from their phones when he said he wanted 7 years). So they were not really competing with "anybody." They chose not to compete with the Yankees, or the Mets, or Philly or LA or San Diego (although San Diego's spending is probably not sustainable, they are really more of the mid-market team, even if I love them for beating LA). That's not being critical of the moves they did make, they all seem like smart moves and they may work out better than we expect. But it does smell like incrementalism, not a splash. I guess in their defense I'll say that some of the expectations for young talent have not developed. They clearly had a plan to build from within, then supplement as needed. They have not done much building from within, simply because the players have not panned out. Yet anyway.
We'll see. Happy New Year.
It's all about internal player development. That's why those guys (FZ and Kap) were hired. They have to create a talent pipeline that will allow them to fill spots on the 26-man roster right now and to have the trade offerings to lure good players from other teams. That isn't happening. At least not yet, as you say.
Signing big money FAs is fine but you build from within. And use surplus youth to get veterans. The Dodgers traded for Mookie Betts, for example. They had the talent to trade away.
The Giants are going to spend about $200M this year on payroll. So far, that is. That's not quite the top third. They still have room under the CBT which is $233M.
San Diego may be a relatively small market but they are the only game in town. No NBA, no NFL, no NHL. They really are competing against themselves!
I see some of the talent we have and the comments on some of the players. I keep seeing that a defensive upgrade from Estrada would be a good idea. Did I miss something. I watched all the giants games and many other games. Seemed to me that Thairo Estrada was a very good second baseman. I still do not trust the defensive metrics put out by several services. I also see severe criticism of Joc as a left fielder. Although he had a couple of bad plays overall I thought he played a relatively decent left field. Certainly a lot better than Dickerson did. But I do not see the big defensive liability. I watch a ton of baseball and have seen some of the top defenders screw up a play or two in the outfield. If he is our worst fielding outfielder our outfield defense is not that bad. Problem is we do not have a stud centerfielder. Yaz has become a very good fielder but lacks the speed of a great centerfielder. I am worried about the lack of a very good third and first basemen in the field this year. When I looked at the defensive metrics for Belt, they never seemed that great, but watching him every day, I thought at least until 2022 he was way above average as a first baseman. Another reason I just do not trust defensive metrics. Sorry if a made too big a change in the subject.
Not at all.
Defensive stats show a lot of variance from year-to-year. I think it is best to use an "average" of several measures and not rely on any one scheme.
The Giants seem pretty high on Estrada. This year is going to be a real test for him because of the shift ban. Second baseman are going to need more range and speed overall, I think.
I am not sure if Estrada is a better or worse fielder than Dubon, but positionally Dubon seems to be a much better outfielder. Houston seemed to use Dubon's defense to their benefit. Never sure why Dubon did not reach his potential as a hitter. There was a sign when I played in babe ruth leagues at one of the ball park locker rooms. It said hitting is 1 percent physical, 4 percent talent, and 95 percent mental.
I guess I can buy that. Seems like some guys have preternatural talent. Bonds, Manny Ramirez, guys like that. Maybe they have "5%" talent!
I suppose the difference between guys with "equal" talent could be evaluated that way. That is, the player who succeeds vs. the player who doesn't make it is all about mental preparation, focus, etc. At the same time all of these guys have had to show determination and self-discipline just to make it in pro ball. The differences, at this level, would seem to be pretty damn small. That's what makes it all so interesting as a fan--it is so hard to tell how a player will develop!
Although if you want to improve the odds of guessing which players will last in the game stick with 1st-round draft picks. Overall they have the best chance of making it.
Then of course there's luck, good health, getting the right coaching and opportunities, etc.
Brian Sabean leaves the Giants and goes back east to the Yankees in an "advisory" role. Sabes is from New Hampshire originally and made his "baseball bones" in Florida. Then he got hired in New York in the mid-80s before coming to SF in the 90s. He's 66.
Obviously he was one of the greatest Giants never to wear the uniform!
Bon voyage, best wishes, farewell, thanks for the memories, etc. etc.
I guess FZ didn't give him enough to do.
"This office ain't big enough for the both of us!"
Bochy is 67 and he needed more to do, too. That's a head-scratcher for me. I get that competitive guys need to stay engaged and challenged but who needs all that damn public scrutiny? Don't they ever just want to say "shut up all you ignorant assholes!!"? Managers have to face the media every damn day.
At least in Sabes' case he is in a behind-the-scenes role.
shut up all you ignorant assholes
Great name for a blog.
Of course - no comments allowed.
www.suayia.com!
See the giants DFA'd Wynne. Do we have another viable backup catcher?
Not really. Blake Sabol is listed as a catcher (and OF) but he has no ML-time.
I guess this means they will pursue some catching help!
Wynns' spot on the 40-man was taken by FNG Michael Conforto.
They've got two Rule 5 guys at AAA: Ricardo Genoves and Brett Cumberland. Neither have ML-time.
Catching is such an important position. It would be great to have a backup catcher that the pitchers enjoy throwing to.
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