Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections for the 2023 Giants are available at FanGraphs. The article is worth a look. Here's a graphic:
"The Giants are sturdily built but they are a star or two short on offense." That's the tagline under the article heading.
Here are a few other (cherry-picked) quotes from the piece:
"The Giants are a good team."
"The Giants are solid just about everywhere (ZiPS is uneasy at catcher) and they have depth at nearly every position should injuries strike."
"As with the offense, ZiPS really likes the team's options in both the rotation and the bullpen."
"I think the Giants are an 85-90 win team, which is close enough to probably win the division. Still, I expect a surprise NL West title would come more from disasters in Los Angeles and San Diego than this team's upside."
I think the projection is a reasonable take on the state of the ballclub. I expect we will see an active spring and some interesting moves, particularly with some of the young arms in the system. Keep an eye on Kyle Harrison of course but also R.J. Dabovich and Keaton Winn.
The commenters on FanGraphs were mostly skeptical and thought Szymborski's guess at 85-90 wins was too high. I'm not sure. I thought last year's club had 90-win potential and it managed to win 81 despite what I thought was some really terrible luck. The Giants don't look very sexy, but I bet they will be tougher than most people expect. And the roster is not complete. Pitchers and catchers have their first workout on February 16th. Just around the corner!
--M.C.
7 comments:
I am worried about, the defense at third and first. Also worried a bit about the defensive depth at catcher. One star short in the lineup, and on Ace short in the starting rotation. How many teams have a Cobb-Webb, and Stripling-Wood?
The defense up the middle is horrible. Crawfords range is not what it used to be. Estrada never range, there isn't A centerfielder on the roster and Bart? Yikes!
These comments are reflected in Andrew Baggarly's take in the Athletic: https://theathletic.com/4129564/2023/01/27/sf-giants-mailbag-logan-webb-farhan-zaidi/
I have a few views by just eyeballing the game that do not seem to comport with defensive metric services. Crawford never had that much range at SS, but it has not changed that much. The fact that a recent listing of shortstops did not have him in the top 25 shows me that these folks do not watch the games. Estrada to me, seems to be a more than decent second baseman. He seems to have decent range to me. Perhaps not Chisolm type of range, but looks as if Chisolm will be playing center for the Marlins. Also many defensive stat service, for years have under-rated Belt. I do not see Pederson as that terrible an outfielder. He made one or two misjudgements late in the season last year, but I have seen that even among the most elite outfielders. Slater is a way above average corner outfielder, and only an Average centerfielder. Yaz is similar with less speed, but usually better jumps. We will have to see what comforto and Haniger bring to the defense. Again, for me it is first, third, and catcher that worries me. I will have to see a big drop off in Crawford to agree with the so-called experts. Pederson got to balls for outs that Dickerson would have never gotten to.
If I had to guess, I'd say the 2023 Giants are a .500 team. But the confidence level in that number is pretty low, I can entertain a much better outcome, or a worse one. I think Conforto and Haniger are definite upgrades in the outfield. On the other hand, I think we have lost both defense and offense in the infield in passing on Belt and Longoria, both of whom can be pretty productive when healthy. Note the critical caveat. If the Giants are no better than .500 in 2023, you can blame the Correa thing if you want and maybe I'm underestimating the impact Conforto and Haniger could have. I hope so. On the pitching side, they have added bullpen depth and maturity (thinking of Duval) but are unlikely to replace Rodon's 2022. Add it all up - it's a wash, maybe.
Another note. I have been scanning MLBtraderumors daily for some time. I usually do this time of year, but during the season it is hardly worth paying attention to. Because the speculation about major free agents and signings of those agents has passed, at this time there are minor league contract signings (like Matt Duffy with KC), a few trades and an occasional pick-up from the remaining free agent pool. But I've noticed that the Giants are almost completely absent from the daily going's-on. What to make of that? Are their roster and minor league talent set enough so that we aren't going to see many mentions, and if so, is that a good thing or a bad thing? I haven't stress tested this with other clubs to see if there are maybe just some clubs that are making lots and lots of moves and others that are making few - I've only noted the Giants by their absence.
So much for that observation. The Giants signed veteran catcher Roberto Perez and minor league pitcher Joe Ross.
I scour MLBTR daily. It's what I call "real news" as they report on what they have heard and they always source it. A lot of it turns out to be B.S. but that's because everyone loves to talk. More talk = more B.S. But they always have the transactions up-to-date and they give insights and consistently good analysis. I'm actually thinking of becoming a paid subscriber so I can get rid of the ads. I do that with FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference already. I use those sites too much deal with all the damn pop-ups!
FanGraphs has a section called "Roster Resource" (there's a link on the sidebar) that sums up the state of things with each MLB team. I use it religiously. If you only use one site, I'd use that one.
I'm not surprised by the Perez signing. I thought a guy like that would get signed sooner. My guess is that (barring injury) Perez will break camp with the team. Blake Sabol or some other up-and-comer will get the call-up when Perez runs out of gas. It really depends on JoeyB. If he can be "cromulent" that will be a huge lift for the club.
Oh, and Joe Ross is a sleeper. Big-time prospect at one point. If the Giants have a shtick, it is getting once-hyped guys to find their mojo. I'm keeping my eye on that.
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