Giants find their fall guy

No one is a happy about the Giants late-season collapse. And, it seems, someone has to take the blame. In baseball the manager usually gets the axe if the team under-performs and the Giants stuck to the script and fired Gabe Kapler. It's tacky to cut the guy loose with a weekend of baseball left to play. Why not just wait until Monday morning? It's a silly move in my mind. Kapler wasn't whiffing with the bases loaded or booting the ball around the outfield. No, the players did that. And so what if there was some whining in the clubhouse? Players should be upset by their individual performances and should be upset about the team's overall performance. Everyone had a hand in the team's poor play. No one gets off the hook--are they going to turn over the roster as well? Or the rest of the coaching staff?

This tells me that Farhan Zaidi doesn't value the manager all that much. It could be anyone, as long as it is one that works. I thought the 107-win 2021 season would buy Kap a little more goodwill but the sports world moves too fast for that stuff. "What have you done for me lately?" The Washington Nationals won the World Series in 2019 and have gone 204-306 (.400) since then, including a 107-loss season, and they just signed manager Dave Martinez to a two-year extension! Explain that.

Kapler was an unorthodox manager and had an unusual personal style. San Francisco seemed like a perfect fit. I had no problem with him. He's weird, but it's not an act. He is exactly who he presents himself to be. I thought he brought a lot of smarts and freshness to the role and I liked his hands-off style in the clubhouse. He expected players to show up and do their best, like professionals, and didn't go for too much rah-rah or hand-holding. He was business-like and analytical and that perhaps was a bridge too far for a sport steeped in tradition. I suspect the big-money season-ticket holders squawked the loudest and the drop in attendance was a clear signal to the ownership that they needed to act.

I'm really not interested in another managerial search. I'd rather they have someone in mind already and we can be spared the speculation. After all, it apparently doesn't matter that much, there are plenty of guys who can step in to the job. Just as long as they know they have a very short leash.

By the way Kai Correa is 0-1 in his managerial career.

--M.C.

Logan Webb is the man!

SF 2  SD 1

In my last post I said that "Webb can't do it alone" but it seems he took exception to that tonight and damn well tried to do it all alone. Fortunately his fielders made the plays and the the lineup eked out the bare minimum of runs to edge the Padres. Webb gave up a run in the 1st on a dinker, a double, and a dunker, and it looked like Blake Snell and the Padres bullpen (and the Giants offensive ineptitude) would make the 1-0 lead stand. Webb kept throwing his nasty stuff and kept grinding out one scoreless frame after another and it finally paid off in the 8th. Marco Luciano, who had a great night, doubled after LaMonte Wade, Jr. walked with one out. Joc Pederson was walked to load the bases and Patrick Bailey forced out Wade at home. Is there any team in baseball lousier with the bases loaded than the Giants? Michael Conforto, however, knocked in two with an opposite-field hit to give the Giants (finally!!) the lead. In a surprise but well-deserved move Kap eschewed his closer and sent out his ace to finish the job. Webb quickly got in trouble with back-to-back singles but once again Kap stuck with him and he got three ground balls from the next three hitters to complete the game and seal the win. One of the outs was a close play at home and I thought I was going to pass out from the tension. That was one of the best finishes we've seen in this agonizing, frustrating season.

We all know Webb is the star of the club and it's great that he had one of his best performances at home in his penultimate start. It was also good to see young (22 years old) Luciano put his stamp on the game. He's the 2024 shortstop at this point. Brandon Crawford is the greatest SS in SF history but I think we can all see that he's at the end of his illustrious career. I hope he retires and gets a proper send-off in the final home series vs. LA this weekend.

Webb's final line: 9 IP, 9 H (8 singles), 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K, 110 pitches (76 strikes), and 15 ground ball outs. He was masterful. I would like to note that Cy Young candidate Blake Snell (14-9, 2.25 ERA) threw 100 pitches in his six shutout innings. He leads all starters in walks with 99! I prefer Webb's efficiency (only 31 free passes). Snell averages just under 5-2/3 IP per start (180/32 = 5.63); Webb almost an inning more (216/33 =  6.55).

Kyle Harrison, who looked a lot better in his last outing (and the team played one of their worst games of the season), gets the start tomorrow night (6:45 PT).

Go Giants!

--M.C.

Webb can't do it alone

ARI 7  SF 1

The Giants dropped the final contest in Arizona yesterday and fell back to .500 and three games off the Wild Card pace. There are ten games left and the math is pretty close to impossible. Of course they could always simply "win out" (10-0 the rest of the way!) and shut everyone up but I reckon that's a bet no one will take. They will now have to compete with the San Diego Padres for third place in the NL West.

Logan Webb got peppered for nine hits in six frames but only one went for extra bases and he kept the game close with another quality start.The Giants had three hits total in another anemic display with LaMonte Wade, Jr.'s solo shot leading off the 1st providing the only run. Webb leads MLB in QS with 23, batters faced with 816, pitches thrown with 3072, and in IP with 207. He's a "horse" in the old-fashioned sense. His BB/9 (1.35) is 3rd-best, HR/9 (0.87) is 8th-best, FIP (3.21) is 6th-best, and ERA (3.35) is 10th-best. His 61.6% ground-ball rate leads MLB by a lot, the second-best belongs to Framber Valdez (54.3%). You'd figure Webb for a lot of DPs and in fact he's the best with 28. FanGraphs says he's 7th-best with 4.6 WAR and Baseball-Reference pegs him 4th with 5.0 WAR. Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus has Webb at #1 (5.0) in their version (called WARP) of this rather abstract metric. He's a stud, that's for sure, and is the team MVP by far. We should get to see him pitch two more times before the season wraps up. If the Giants had a better club and Webb had a winning record he would be a serious Cy Young Award candidate. (He'll get some well-deserved down-ballot votes but I suspect Spencer Strider* will take the NL prize with his ridiculous K-numbers.)

Kyle Harrison gets re-called for tonight's game in LA (7:10 PT). Let's hope The Kid can find his footing.

Go Giants!

--M.C.

 

*Strider leads MLB in a stat called xFIP with 2.89 and, you-guessed-it, Webb is 2nd with a 2.98 mark. xFIP tries to account for the "noise" in home run rates which vary a lot from year-to-year. It is otherwise calculated and scaled just like FIP which tries to separate out the parts of the game pitchers can actually control (BB,SO, HR, HBP). Defense Independent Pitching Stats (DIPS) were developed by a man named Voros McCracken about 25 years ago and the ideas are fundamental to sabermetrics.

Disaster in the desert

ARI 8  SF 4

The Giants shot themselves in the foot last night and hobbled through another ugly loss. Poor fielding, once again, was pivotal. Alex Cobb is clearly hurting, I'll be surprised if gets another start. Apparently he's had hip issues before and might need surgery in the off-season. The team has a $10M option ($2M buyout) on him for 2024 and I hope they keep him around.

I'm a fan and I always hold out hope for a miraculous turn-around but short of an eight-game winning streak or somesuch the Giants chances for the playoffs are vanishingly small. They really needed to win yesterday. At this point I hope they can hang on and finish with a plus-.500 record. There are eleven games left and seven of those are against the Dodgers.

Logan Webb goes this afternoon (12:40 PT). He was a beast last time out but got no help from his mates. He gets the Matt Cain Award for 2023, of course. I'm sure glad they signed him to a long-term deal.

Go Giants!

--M.C.

Epic fightback takes series

SF 6  CLE 5 (10)

This afternoon was just about the Most Giants-y Game of the year. This year, that is. They took a dump in the 1st when rookie Kyle Harrison pitched like, y'know, a rookie, and rookie third baseman Casey Schmitt played like, y'know, a rookie. Anyway, rookie Luis Matos salvaged something from an inept rally in the bottom of the 1st, then the Guardians tacked on, and it was 5-1 after two. It looked just like all those other hideous losses where the starter/opener takes it on the chin and the team can't recover. Alas, this time they rallied improbably, and scored in the 7th, the 8th, and the 10th to get their 75th win. Here's a short list of teams who don't have 75 wins: Mets, Yankees, Padres, Cardinals, Angels, and Red Sox. This season has been a slog but they are still in the fight so it was great to see them pull off a big comeback.

Alex Wood gets a nod for a superb relief stint. Harrison was done after four (82 pitches) having allowed seven hits (four doubles and a homer) and five runs (two on Schmitt's error). Wood threw four scoreless on just three hits. The Giants big hit came from J.D. Davis who hit a homer with two on in the 8th to tie the game. It didn't clear the fence by much but it was a huge blow nonetheless. Tyler Rogers put two on in the 9th after two were out but Camilo Doval bailed him out. Then Doval pitched a clean 10th and the Giants rallied in the bottom half with Late Game LaMonte delivering the winner, a sacrifice fly to score rookie Patrick Bailey.

Logan Webb gets the start tomorrow in Denver (5:40 PT). It's a four-game set through Sunday. Monday's an off-day.

Go Giants!

--M.C.

8th inning: 9-9

The Giants got a walk-off hit from Late-Inning LaMonte last night to beat the Guardians 5-4 in the 10th. That was the team's 144th game, the end of the eighth seasonal inning. There are 18 games left to play--a mere 1/9 of the 162 we started with. The 74-70 Giants (.514) are in third place in the NL West, 1-1/2 games behind the Diamondbacks who happen to have the third Wild Card spot by the same margin. Here's how we got here:

1st inning: 6-12

2nd inning: 10-8

3rd inning: 12-6

4th inning: 12-6

5th inning: 9-9

6th inning: 10-8

7th inning: 6-12

8th inning: 9-9

This last stretch of games featured six straight losses. If you prefer a monthly breakdown it's Mar/Apr 11-15, May 17-12, June 18-8, July 12-13, August 12-15, and September 4-6.

Since the All-Star Break their record is 25-29 (.463). They can't afford to do that (8-10) as 82 wins will likely not be enough. A 10-8 record and 84 wins seems like an absolute minimum. Maybe they can really turn it around and pop off another 12-6 stretch. After all they've done it twice already.

Sean Manaea and Cal Quantrill square off tonight at 6:45 in the battle of the big ERAs (5.00 vs. 5.70). Go Giants!

--M.C.

Quality Winn

SF 6  ARI 3

Rookie Keaton Winn ran into trouble in the 2nd inning but otherwise threw five scoreless frames and the result was his second career quality start. This one resulted in a win (the last one was a loss in Toronto on June 29th). Behind 3-0 the Giants bounced back with two in the 2nd and three in the 3rd. Mitch Haniger had a double and a homer, and Thairo Estrada also homered. Joc Pederson added a solo shot later. Ryan Walker, Tyler Rogers, and Camilo Doval finished up.

Winn was a 20th-round pick in 2017. He missed time with Tommy John surgery but has over 300 IP in the minors, mostly starting. He's from nowheresville Iowa and the story was he had never been in an ML ballpark until his debut earlier this season. Giants need reliable starters and they like Winn's splitter and his high groundball rate. Let's hope the 25-year old can come up with a few more strong starts in the final weeks.

The Cleveland Guardians come to San Francisco for a three-game set. Alex Cobb gets the start tonight at 6:45 PT.

Go Giants!

--M.C.

Webb's a winner

SF 9  COL 1

Logan Webb hadn't picked up a "W" in a month but last night he was overpowering and the lineup had another nine-run outburst against the Rockies. That beats the three total they scored in his last three starts, and in fact the team has scored two or fewer runs a total of thirteen times when Webb takes the hill this year. That's Matt Cain territory. Webb leads MLB in starts (30), innings pitched (193), and ground ball percentage (60.9). Last night he got TWELVE ground balls! FanGraphs says he's at 4.1 WAR, good for seventh overall, and Baseball-Reference says he's fourth with a 4.5 mark. Either way, he's a beast.

The Giants needed a team to beat up on and Colorado came to town at just the right time. Mike Yastrzemski hit in the leadoff spot and went 4-for-5 with two doubles and Luis Matos got two more hits from the ninth spot. A two-run homer in the 1st by Thairo Estrada got things going. They were 7-for-13 w/RISP.

Keaton Winn gets the ball tonight at 5:10 Pacific with a chance for a sweep.

Go Giants!

--M.C.

Giants stop skid

SF 9  COL 8

So they won't go 0-for-September! Whew. It was looking like a real possibility. The Rockies came to town and threw away enough leads for a week's worth of baseball and the Giants capitalized and won a wild one. The game lasted almost three hours (2:53) which is increasingly unusual in today's pitch-clock world. The winning runs came on back-to-back bases-loaded walks! Credit to the Giants for muscling up (four homers including a back-to-back-to-back sequence to tie it in the 6th) and getting the line moving again (13 hits). Rookie Luis Matos was in the leadoff spot and hit two doubles and a single and added a walk. He looks more polished and seems to be finding himself. The team could sure use a spark, and a young stud (he's 21) having a big month would fit the bill. Someone has to help Wilmer Flores carry the load. The 32-year old is having a career year (.290/.356/.540) with 22 doubles and 22 homers in 108 games (393 PA).

Kyle Harrison got himself in trouble in the 2nd after an error and had a little bad luck, but hung on to get through five innings. He came out for the 6th and gave up a homer which made it 4-0 Colorado and Kapler pulled him (90 pitches). The lineup tied it in the bottom half and scored two in the 7th and three in the 8th to give Camilo Doval a 9-7 lead. He gave up a two-out RBI but got a strikeout to end it.

It has been an ugly stretch, that's for sure. Let's hope they can turn the page on all that and look better going forward. They are playing themselves out of a playoff spot but there are 21 games still on the calendar and a lot can happen in three weeks of baseball. All I can say is "right the ship, lads" and find a way to pull on the oars together.

It's Logan Webb tonight, 6:05 Pacific.

Go Giants!

--M.C.

Pads pound rooks

Rookie Tristan Beck has pitched well overall but he got clobbered in his Friday start in San Diego. His fellow rookie Kyle Harrison, fresh off a sparkling home debut, fell victim to the same onslaught on Saturday. Beck allowed nine hits (2 HR) and six runs in 2-2/3 IP leading to a 7-3 loss. Harrison fared a bit better, pitching into the 6th while also allowing six runs, but he got dinged for four bombs. He did strike out five against only two walks, so there's that. The final was 6-1. He may be a phenom but he's still a rookie. He'll learn how to keep the ball in the yard, I'm sure. The Giants got nothing going against Michael Wacha on Friday and Blake Snell dominated them on Saturday. September is not starting well.

Alex Cobb starts this afternoon (1:10 PT) in the final game. Then it's on to Chicago to face the Cubs.

Go Giants!

--M.C.

 

p.s. I'll be "away from my desk" for a few days so you'll have to carry on without me.

Team effort beats Padres

SF 7  SD 2

Jakob Junis opened the game and breezed through four scoreless frames, retiring 12 of 13 batters. The Giants then had one of those comical innings where every hit fell in while the fielders couldn't hang on to the ball. It was 6-0 after three and that seemed to take the fight out of the home club. Yaz added a solo shot later. The Padres have really under-performed this season. There is a LOT of talent on that squad! Sean Manaea relieved and walked five guys in his 3-1/3 but allowed only one run. Ryan Walker finished the 8th and Scott Alexander gave up a run in the 9th.

Giants finish August with a 12-15 record. They are 70-64 with 28 games left to play. They are a game ahead of the Diamondbacks and currently have the third Wild Card spot. If they play .500 (14-14) the rest of the way they'll finish with a respectable 84 wins but may miss out on the post-season. It might take a better effort than that. We'll see if they can pick up a few games in the final month.

Tristan Beck is listed as tonight's starter (6:40 PT).

Go Giants!

--M.C.