The Giants did what I hoped they'd do--get a new manager quickly and without a lot of fuss. Bob Melvin is well-known and well-regarded around MLB and he's a safe, solid choice. Melvin is from Palo Alto and went to Menlo-Atherton HS. He played amateur ball at Cal and at Cañada College. The 1980 Golden Bears team that Melvin played for was probably the best in school history (44 wins, 10-3 at CWS). They lost to the Arizona Wildcats by one run in the semifinal. (Arizona won the title and their star player was Terry Francona!) Melvin was drafted by the Tigers and came to the Giants with Juan Berenguer in a 1985 trade. He was traded to the Orioles in 1989 for Terry Kennedy. Melvin has managed four clubs (Seattle, Arizona, Oakland, and San Diego) over 20 seasons. In 2942 games his record is 1517-1425 (.516) and his teams have made eight playoff appearances.
Speaking of the playoffs, I was astounded by the NLCS result. The Diamondbacks played two exceptional baseball games in Philadelphia to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. The Phillies seemingly had the pennant in the bag after their Game 5 win but Arizona would not be denied. They got big performances from two rookies: pitcher Brandon Pfaadt and outfielder Corbin Carroll.
Bruce Bochy is back in the World Series after a rousing finish in Houston. Like the Phils the Astros got a huge Game 5 win on the road but the Rangers turned it up to another level for the final two games. They also have a rookie outfielder (Evan Carter) who looks like the real deal. I like to see new teams in the World Series and I think it's good for the sport. Expanding the playoffs means more upsets and more "wild cards" and this year really showed that. The Rangers and Diamondbacks were the number five and number six seeds.Three 100-win teams (LAD, ATL, BAL) and one 99-win team (TBR) were bumped in the early rounds.
It's clear the new mandate for any club is "just make the playoffs" as winning the division accrues no real benefit. Even a seven-game series cannot swing the odds enough towards the stronger team. Luck and chance still rule. A couple of big individual performances can really make an impact in a week of baseball. Billy Beane famously said "my shit don't work in the playoffs" and he was right. Teams have to be built for the long haul, but the short haul post-season is pretty close to a coin toss.
The Texas Rangers will have the home field advantage. Game One is Friday. Texas is listed as a -170 favorite. You'd need to bet $170 to get a $100 payout. Arizona comes in at +150, so you'd win $150 on a $100 bet. A betting line of -170 has an implied probability of about 63% which seems ridiculous. Texas is clearly better on paper but I don't think any baseball match-up is that lopsided. As we've seen, they have to play the games, and anything is possible.
--M.C.
7 comments:
Both the NLCS and the ALCS were excellent series. After Philly's Kimbrel blew 2 saves in games 3 and 4, the Phils won game 5, but used Wheeler to do so. That left Arizona with Galen and Pfaat, in spite of being in Philly. Game 6 looked like a blowout, but the game was close u til the late innings. Arizona had better relief IMO. Pitching!
I read that Melvin is signed through 2026 and Zaidi has been extended through 2026.
That makes me happy. I like stability in management! It's mostly why I disagreed with firing Kap. But BoMel is a good choice. He's local and he's got plenty of "cred" in the game. Fans will like the decision to hire him. It could work out well--SF would be a good place to retire from. He's 61 and could be in a spot to groom his eventual replacement. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Time to sign a few hitters and a few pitchers and put a better team on the field!
I really am glad the process was quick and painless. The last time the Giants signed a former Padres manager things worked out pretty well.
Ben Clemens at FanGraphs gives Baker poor marks for managing the ALCS.
We all know Dusty is respected and beloved in the game. His personal qualities and leadership are universally praised. But we also know he's WEIRD when it comes to game-by-game management. His "shit" works over the long haul (just like Billy Beane) but in a short series he was often either out-managed or too stubborn to adapt to the immediate situation. Bullpens are a very modern thing, really, and Dusty was still stuck in the 1970s when it came to pitching staffs. He retires with a .540 win percentage which is amazing. Most managers are lucky to crack .500 for a career.
Dusty once described the full season as analogous to managing 4 quarters of a football game. He was great at managing for the season. He may have cost us a world series, by using known injured relievers, who could not perform and hold a big lead. Dusty has now retired. On the blogs and sites that follow the giants it seems that Melvin has as many fans and as many detractors as Kapler. One of the big comments from detractors, was that in 2023 he had an all star laden team and only managed to eke out 3 more wins than the mediocre giants team.
Of interest, earlier in the season I was watching some baseball pundits on the MLB station making their case as to why the Arizona Diamondbacks would fade and not make the playoffs. Two main reasons, were 1. that their pitching staff was top heavy, and did not have the depth needed to sustain through the whole season, and 2. that they had more than their share of rookies, and rookies often tend to fade late in the season. I guess they were partially correct as they only won 84 games, and I am sure they expected more wins from the Padres. I would love to see them look back at those clips on the MLB station.
I liked Kapler, I thought he did every thing he could to give the giants an advantage and win games. Certainly the 107 win team was not the best team that the giants have had, even in this century. I look at the 2023 team and Bochy's 2019 team, and Kapler got more wins this season, and remember, despite Bochy's announced retirement and hoping the guys would play hard for him in Sept 2019, they had a terrible September. Bochy will go into the hall of fame as a giants manager.
Arizona significantly retooled their bullpen late in the season. Sewald was a Mariner until just before the trade deadline, Saarfrank was just called up at the end of the season. Corbin is likely Rookie of the Year. Sometimes rookies don't know enough to know their not supposed to win against veterans. Dusty may have cost us a WS by using injured relief, but he went with what was consistently money, all year long. It just wasn't.
At least in hindsight it was a mistake by Dusty, Perhaps Nen, and Rodriguez did not reveal how bad their injuries were. Apparently Nen, was just short of his arm falling off, at least metophorically.
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