Jordan Hicks throws as hard as anyone in baseball. He averages just over 100 mph on both his four-seam fastball (which has hit 105!) and his bread-and-butter, a sinking two-seamer. He also has an 86-mph slider. His career 60% ground ball rate is Webb-like. It's easy to see why the Giants are interested, and in fact they signed him to a four-year, $44M deal.
Hicks has logged only 243 innings in 212 games over five seasons with the Cardinals and Blue Jays. He made eight starts in 2022 but has otherwise been a reliever. He turned 27 in September. Like a lot of flamethrowers he walks a lot of guys and is an injury risk. He had TJS in 2019.
Oh, but that talent! I think that's what this deal is all about. Reaching free agency at a relatively young age makes Hicks a better-than-average risk. The peak years for most ballplayers are ages 26-29 or thereabouts. The Giants see starter potential and want to put him in the rotation.
I was reading something on Tom Tango's blog about predictive wOBA (I know, pretty nerdy stuff), and he introduced the column with this tidbit:
Hitting a 450 foot HR is very indicative of a batter's talent. It shows that he has raw power and it shows that he can really put the barrel on the ball. Hitting a 110 mph high popup to an outfielder for an easy out is also a good indication of a batter's talent. It shows that he has raw power and that a small mistiming is what kept him from hitting a 450 foot HR.
A bloop hit is a better outcome for the team than a pop-out, but a lucky Texas-leaguer doesn't tell you anything about the batter's talent. The major-league pop-up does.
I think the same logic applies to this deal. Hicks has some serious pitching talent. Maybe the outcomes haven't been there, but all the indicators are certainly there. A relatively modest deal for a young major-league arm with lots of upside is OK by me. The rotation is still full of question marks after Logan Webb, but at least the pool of possible answers is getting bigger. I would still like to see them go after Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, and I keep wondering about shortstop, but at least the Hicks signing is something to talk about.
--M.C.
6 comments:
Talent and harnessing that talent for success are two different things. The pure power and ability to hit the ball far, is an interesting example and one for which I have seen not work out. My good friend, (who unfortunately passed away last year), was scouted by MLB (back in the day) as news even go out in those days. He had scouts watching him from the time he was 12. R.B. hit the ball as far as anyone, and in the days of the Lillte, league, Pony League, Babe Ruth league, Rookie leagues, he continued to be scouted as when he connected, it was truly Ruthian. He was a righty, good speed, great arm, could play SS, and could hit the ball as far as anyone being scouted anywhere. Problem was as he moved up the ranks he could not hit breaking pitches. Two years in the Rookie leagues, he could not hit over 180, despite occasionally hitting unbelievable tape measure shots. They worked with him. Fed him 100's if not thousands of breaking pitches. Tried Opthamologists, etc. He still could not hit the breaking pitch. He was with the Rookie Cardinals. And could never make it above that level. A lot of teams wanted him, the Cards I think thought they could fix him. They could not. Spend some of his adult years amazing people in softball leagues. Hitting a breaking ball for some is just not in the "cards". despite the raw talent. Hicks has made it to the majors. The giants need to Vogelsong, or Gausman him to unlock the key to control, and perhaps he could end up being an ace. But control is the key. If the giants can harness his control, they will have found themselves a winner. He is being paid starter money, and if they do unlock the key to making him really good, I hope they do not get rid of him like they did with Gausman.
It's not starter money so much as it is high-dollar bullpen money! But it is a modest amount for a 27-year old free agent. Sure, they have to "unlock" his talent, and that is certainly more art than science, but it's a reasonable gamble. This pitching staff needs arms and Hicks has a live one.
FanGraphs credited him with 1.1 WAR (with B-Ref at 0.8) in 65 IP. If the Giants can stretch him out over 100 innings with short starts and etc. he could easily be worth $11M/yr. Interestingly FanGraphs projects him to double his total IP (they say 133) in this year.
It's not #2 starter stuff, I grant you, but it shores up the back end. It ain't flashy, and we could use some flashy, but I like the Hicks signing more and more.
So I posted about signing Jung Hoo Lee on 12/12.
The Tom Murphy post was 12/18.
++++insert XMAS Break here+++++
I reported the Robbie Ray trade on 1/5.
Jordan Hicks was 1/12.
We should expect another signing in about a week, don't you think?
Seems like the giants are going along with your schedule. There are several free agents out there that I think will be worth far more than sending out Stripling every 5 days. Hicks could be exciting. But there is an additional risk as Hicks is a type 1 diabetic. I am hoping that they can Turn Hicks into the next Gausman and then some.
Giants 2022 first-rounder Reggie Crawford talks to David Laurila at FanGraphs about being a two-way player.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/giants-prospect-reggie-crawford-continues-to-have-two-way-aspirations/
Michael Bauman on FanGraphs talks about Jordan Hicks.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jordan-hicks-is-like-the-first-half-of-arcade-fires-third-album-a-modern-man-ready-to-start/
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