Matt Chapman has reportedly signed a three-year deal with the Giants. It's $54M with opt-outs. They've been linked to him for the entire off-season but it took until March to get the deal done. He's the first of the 'Boras Four' to break the ice. According to MLBTR the Giants are "still interested" in Blake Snell.
This is exciting news. Chapman immediately improves the team. It's getting crowded on the infield bench, though. They'll have to move someone--I wonder who? Roster Resource is a great place to ponder such questions. Here's the link.
Snell or not, the Giants need another starter.
--M.C.
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J.D. Davis seems to be the likely choice. He led the team last year in games, starts, and plate appearances, and was second to Thairo Estrada in innings. Chapman's bat was only a little better last season, but his glove is a lot better. Davis worked hard and I liked the guy a lot but Chapman is an upgrade. They are a day apart in age.
There are teams out there who need a third baseman. The speculation is that Davis will be flipped. Maybe they can find a healthy pitcher somewhere. Although they could still use a power upgrade, that seems to be their biggest need.
There's been a lot of moves this off-season and they still lack a starter.
As for power, they'd have to replace an OF (Yaz, Conforto) or 1B (Wade, Flores). I'm not sure there are upgrades out there. They are going with youth (with veteran backup) at C and SS. (Interestingly Luciano is known for his power!) And CF is set. As is 2B.
They added Soler. And Murphy has more pop than Sabol. Chapman a little more than Davis. So that's something.
I kept thinking they'd try to trade Conforto, but they don't really have a power-hitting OF ready to replace him. They are counting on him to be healthy and get closer to his career norms (.250/.350/.450).
But I'm convinced the rotation has to come first. With Beck out they really need another starter.
FanGraphs rated the top 50 free agents last November. The Dodgers signed #1 (Ohtani) and #2 (Yamamoto). Giants signed #7 (Chapman), #14 (Lee), #19 (Soler), and #32 (Hicks).
This is the most active the Giants have been in a long time.
Hicks was number 32 but as a reliever. Not sure I really like the Chapman contract, although it will be good to have him. The structure of the contract almost makes it certain that if he has a decent year he will opt out. Perhaps the giants only wanted him for one year?? How many years do they have Davis under control? They are a bunch of young pitchers away from having a decent youthful rotation in 2025, just many of these young studs just need a bit more polishing.
Davis is a free agent next year. This was his final arb-year.
The alternative to the opt-outs is a long-term deal. Most folks thought Chapman would get 5 years. I'm glad the Giants didn't do that.
They can always re-negotiate if they want to keep him. He's a bridge to the young position players like Fitzgerald and Schmitt. And if he delivers another 4+ WAR season then he improves the team immediately.
The Giants were horrible fielders last season. Chapman (and Lee) should help that.
Agree about the young arms. They seem to have a lot of upside with the young pitchers.
Having now read 6 or 7 iterations of the interview that Brandon Crawford gave to the Athletic's Andrew Baggarly, Brandon seems to sound a little angrier with each one. So it goes with modern media; one story, a little more outrage with each degree of separation. Brandon spoke to Susan Slusser in the Sunday's Chronicle, and "clarified", if that's the word, his remarks. He was disappointed not to finish his career with the Giants, but did not expect to be called after his last couple years. I have tried to avoid opinion sites during this off-season (except RMC), and anything with "potential" or "possible" or "expected" in the title, but I've obviously backslid.
I just find it a slap in the face to Crawford, who was selfless and willing to move to third for Correia. I understand his pain, and it seems like a slap in the face to sign Ahmed. I have not been as critical of Farhan as many, but this seems like an unforced error. The value of keeping Crawford goes beyond his playing ability. It is public relations issue. Farhan signs Pablo to a minor league contract, but won't sign Crawford? I don't care if Ahmed turns out to be better than Crawford this year, it was just a poor move on so many levels, including that Crawford hits left handed. If I were in Crawford's shoes, I would probably be more upset than he seems to be.
I would have liked to see Craw retire as a Giants player. But I think it was obvious they were going to move on, esp. after the $32M pillow contract.
Divorces are always bad. At least he got a send-off:
https://www.mlb.com/giants/video/crawford-s-game-exit-and-speech
heard that the giants DFA'd J.D. Davis!
J.D. Davis placed on waivers.
Well, that settles it. They probably couldn't find a trade partner. If he gets claimed then his new team picks up the $6.9M salary.
If he goes unclaimed he can be "outrighted" to AAA but because of his service time he could refuse that and choose free agency.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/giants-place-j-d-davis-on-waivers.html
It seems odd to me that they couldn't find anyone to trade with.
My guess is the salary was a barrier. Teams waited out the process figuring the Giants would eventually put him on waivers.
Evan Longoria is a free agent, for example. A team needing a part-time third baseman could sign him for probably less than Davis' $6.9M. Longo made $4M with AZ last year.
From MLBTR:
6:42pm: As noted by Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, the Giants would have the option to release Davis in the event that he clears waivers, while paying only a pro-rated portion of his contract as termination pay. The club would have this option due to the fact that salaries decided via arbitration such as Davis’s $6.9MM salary are not fully guaranteed under the current collective bargaining agreement. Had the Giants and Davis had avoided arbitration, his salary would have been fully guaranteed in the event of a release.
If they had settled with Davis they would be on the hook for his salary. It went to an arb-board (which ruled in Davis' favor) in order to settle so that means it is not guaranteed money.
More from MLBTR on the Davis situation:
The fact that Davis went to a hearing provides an interesting wrinkle to his salary situation, as per the terms of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. Salaries for arbitration-eligible players are not fully guaranteed until they make the Opening Day roster, or (as noted by Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) unless they agree to a salary without going to a hearing — your standard “team and player have avoided arbitration” situation.
However, in going to a hearing, Davis could be subject to the CBA clause stating that San Francisco can part ways with him for a prorated portion of his $6.9MM salary. That prorated sum will be 30 days’ worth of termination pay if Davis is released earlier than 16 days prior to the start of the Giants’ season (their first game is on March 28), and 45 days’ worth of pay if he is released after that 16-day checkpoint. Davis might well have grounds for a grievance if the Giants try this tactic, as he has been tearing it up at the plate in Spring Training, and could therefore argue that he isn’t being released “for failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability,” as detailed in the CBA wording.
Barring a potential grievance, the Giants would save roughly $5.793MM by releasing Davis before the 16-day threshold. It isn’t an insignificant sum, especially for a team that is approaching luxury tax status. RosterResource projects the Giants for a tax number of just under $231.3MM, leaving the club with only a little breathing room before hitting the $237MM tax line. Given how the Giants have pursued several high-salaried stars in recent years, paying the tax altogether probably isn’t seen as a huge barrier for ownership or the front office, yet naturally the team would ideally like to pay as little tax as possible. San Francisco could potentially still be adding another big salary to the ledger before Opening Day, as the Giants remain linked to top starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery on the rumor mill.
There are a lot of things that go into a decision about a player!
In this case it seems clear that it was all about Chapman. Giants have been connected to Chapman since November.
As far as Longoria vs Davis at this point, Davis is likely to be a much healthier player, even if the Longoria of several years ago was a better player. Longoria's body has not held up well the last few years, and it has been difficult to get anywhere near a full season from him. Davis is younger, and it seems often starts the year off with a good performance. I am a bit flummoxed by this move, as he could possibly be a nice trade piece later in the year near the trade deadline. The other question is; is Chapmen worth about 12 million dollars a year more than Davis? Nevertheless, with several teams needing a 3rd baseman, I am a bit surprised that he has not been gobbled up. Owners outside of the dodgers seem to be playing hardball with a lot of signings. Donnie Barrels as far as I can see, also has not been picked up by anybody this season. Davis may not have been great on defense last year but he was certainly good.
Maybe the Giants asked too much in a trade.
Davis is a good player. But he's caught in a roster squeeze. If he could play short he'd probably make the team. And he's at that tricky age/salary place where he's cheap relative to a big star but expensive relative to a youngster.
Chapman upgrades the defense and that's something the team really needed. Chapman has a track record of being an everyday player, too. That's another thing the Giants were looking for and why they signed Lee.
Really nice FanGraphs piece on Patrick Bailey.
Back to the JD Davis thing: a good comp might be Gio Urshela.
Urshela made $8.4M last year, his final arb-year. A free agent this year, he only managed a $1.5M deal with Detroit.
The arb-system is fucked. Players should be free agents much sooner in their careers.
Giants are hoping that Lee will be an everyday player, and it looks like the plan, but we shall see how that works out. I hope it does. Still a bit worried about the pitching, and unless things change drastically in the next 10 days or so, it looks as if Luciano will be playing Triple A ball for a while.
Always thought that Posey was a good framer except for the low inside slider to a righty thrown by a left-handed pitcher. His glove often went away from the plate on those pitches instead of toward the plate. I think it cost Bumgarner a lot of strikes as that was one of his best pitches. Posey was an elite blocker. I wonder if other teams watching tapes of Bailey will use Bailey's setups to tip off what pitch is coming. He seems to have particular stances for particular pitches, and unless he starts disguising this, other teams will pick up on it.
Surprised the giants lost so many games last September with Bailey behind the plate, but I guess when only Flores was hitting, it was difficult to win. Also, in Sept. Bailey made more than his fair share of throwing errors. Supposedly chalked up to a long season for a young catcher.
The projections look good for Lee. I'm confident he's just what the team needs at the top of the lineup.
Alas, Luciano needs more time. Good thing they signed Ahmed.
Giants gave up 142 runs in 27 games last September.
Robo-umps will make pitch framing obsolete. But a guy with Bailey's hands, timing, anticipation, smoothness, etc. will always be valuable back there. I'm not worried about him telegraphing. He's too slick, and he makes the big move late. He strikes me as much too savvy for that too happen.
Word was he played too many innings and wore down. I believe it. It's a tough position!
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