I think the Giants should sign free agent right-hander Jack Flaherty to a short-term deal. (I'll take almost anyone on a short-term deal.) He's going to give you 25-30 starts with above-average results. Flaherty's market is depressed and he needs to prove himself with a good year and then opt-out. Think Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon. (He's not as good as those guys, but that's okay.) It's never bad to have a surplus of starting pitchers.
Right now the Giants are expecting the kind of performance I described for Flaherty from four guys: Ray, Verlander, Hicks, and Harrison. How many of those guys are going to deliver 2+ WAR? Ray did it last in 2022, Verlander in 2023, and neither Hicks nor Harrison pulled it off last year. After that they have a nice group of youngsters—by definition unproven—like Roupp, Birdsong, Black, Rodriguez, etc. I like this group of hurlers but there's a heapin' pile of uncertainty there! Even Flaherty, an eight-year veteran, has exhibited big swings in seasonal WAR totals. There are red flags with him, like declining velocity, but he'd be relatively cheap. He's not going to get the multi-year deal he wanted. And San Francisco is a great place for pitchers.
Really all of this is to say I'd like to see one more starting pitcher added to the mix. I don't believe free agent veterans "block" prospects and young players. It's a performance-oriented workplace. If you deliver the goods you get to play. If the youngsters want time on the field then they have to shine on the field. Am I right? And it's just money. The Giants have plenty. They can afford to take a risk on a veteran pitcher because they need the depth to compete with the other teams in the NL West.
I think they need another position player/DH type for some more thump in the lineup. Or at least some more competition in Spring Training. Somebody like Randal Grichuk is a free agent and he's actually been linked to the Giants. Austin Hays, Tommy Pham, Jorge Polanco, and Paul DeJong are other examples of low-cost free agent players available at this point. Alex Bregman, Ha-Seong Kim, and Pete Alonso are the "big names" left on the board. None would be a fit. Bregman because of length and cost, Kim because Adames and Fitzgerald are already at SS an 2B, and Alonso because he's too limited, and they have Wade and Flores as a platoon pair.
These aren't exciting propositions. We aren't buying a new car, just getting some upgrades on the old one. Right now the Giants look like they've looked for the last three seasons: fair-to-middling with an outside shot at being good enough to get a post-season berth. A couple of breakout seasons from the youth brigade and it's a different story. I know we'd all like to see that!
--M.C.
11 comments:
Going back to our previous topic, I note that the NFL has revenue sharing and a salary cap and yet the same team has gone to the Super Bowl three straight seasons. MLB has not had a repeat champion since the last century.
Teams can and will manipulate any system to their advantage. No matter how many rules and structures are put into place, teams will find workarounds. Simplify the system and I'll bet competitiveness will improve.
That may not last. But baseball is a little different because of the playoffs, and baseball is the rare sport where even the inferior team can get hot. Overall on the Flaherty situation. I am not against it, but I do think that Veterans can sometimes block younger players who could be ready to break out. Harrison has to be ready to take a step forward, and we will see if Birdsong also fits the Bill. But other guys like Beck, Winn, and Roupp, also are on the cusp. If Flaherty is on the team, and the starters are healthy, he will most likely take the place of either our 4th or 5th starters who, if healthy seem ready to go. Problem is Neither of these guys has come close to 200 innings, and management is probably not expecting to get close to that out of them. Because of injuries, your point of having extra quality starters is a good one.
I see the giants have traded away Taylor Rogers for a minor leaguer, in a partial salary dump. My worry here is that the giants are severely underserved in their bullpen by lefties, unless they plan to give one of their young lefty starters a chance in 2025 to contribute to the bullpen, or they have another move in mind. This leaves us currently with one lefty in the bullpen, and being he was a rookie last year, he does not have a long track record. This move seems to necessitate another move. But, I hate to see the twins broken up. I suspect having both on the team made them better.
Thanks for that update, I hadn't seen it!
This is a Youth Movement kind of move. If Miller had not emerged last season as the go-to lefty they would not have traded Rogers. It's a salary dump, too, but only a little one. They'll save about $6M.
They have Joey Lucchesi as a recent pickup. And they could promote Carson Whisenhunt. But yeah, they are gonna need another southpaw!
Buster says the roster is set.
Steve Adams at MLBTR thinks the Giants should keep adding to the roster.
If you are TL;DR, here's a quote:
With deep pockets, some holes in the lineup, an inexperienced bullpen and a pretty decent chunk of payroll space both in the short- and long-term, the Giants feel like a team that should be opportunistically adding to the roster in the late stages of the offseason. Instead, they’re making cost-cutting moves in the ’pen and their new president of baseball operations is broadcasting that they “feel pretty set” with the current group.
Maybe it’s a smokescreen. Maybe an unexpected bargain will present itself and the Giants will pounce. That’s what Giants fans should be hoping for, because otherwise it sure feels like the team is missing some opportunities.
It appears as if Posey views our young talent as potentially on the verge of making significant breakthroughs, and envisions the team in a manner similar to the teams he players for from 2010 to 2014. I hope he is correct. I am a little worried about getting rid of a decent lefty in the bullpen even if he was not seen as a late inning high leverage guy. A 2.40 ERA for a guy who pitches in the 5th or 6th inning is actually quite valuable, even if not 12 million a year valuable. But there has to be a replacement. Right now the dodgers have an all star lineup, and all star rotation, and an all star relief crew. Unless they suffer an injury I think the 102.5 to `104.5 over under value is quite low unless the team sits back and coasts, but I do not see Dave Roberts letting that happen. For the giants the goal would be simply to get into the post season as a wild card team. Perhaps they can re-align the divisions, putting the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, and either Atlanta or Houston in one division. Thus making baseball more interesting for the rest of the teams.
We wanted a Youth Movement--we're getting it!
A youth movement is fine as long as that youth is ready and given the ample chance to grow and show their skills on the major league level. They just need a couple of their young pitchers to break through, and their young hitters to take the next step forward.
Agreed.
So, does Buster believe "youth breakouts" will be the difference-maker this year? Otherwise, it seems like they are just cheaping out.
So the Tigers get Flaherty and they are rumored to be pursuing Alex Bregman. The Giants have the resources to do BOTH of those things!
The Tigers won 86 games last year and made the playoffs. The Giants won 80 games. The Tigers seem to have urgency in their Front Office. The Giants seem passive by comparison. Don't get me wrong: Adames was a great move. (But a very predictable and obvious one!) Verlander will help the team. But I think Buster & Co. could be more aggressive and take some risks.
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