Friday, April 11, 2014

Disappointing Loss in Extras

The good news is that Ryan Vogelsong lowered his ERA. The bad news is that he lowered his ERA from 9.00 to 8.00. Hey, I'll take the improvement. Actually, I'm more encouraged by Vogie's outing than by Lincecum's. I think we've got a decent fifth starter--he's going to work out the kinks and be effective. Timmeh has a lot more work to do. I refuse to believe that an athlete with his talent and track record (and $35M contract) will be working out of the 'pen or rehabbing in Fresno anytime soon. It might be a little longer road than we were hoping, but I think he will find himself and start delivering the goods. Speaking of delivering the goods, you have to like how FNG Michael Morse has been hitting. And in our ballpark! Speaking of our ballpark, I expect the team to win at home. I went to bed with the boys up 5-4 and expected to see a "W" when I checked the score this morning--imagine my disappointment at the result.

I blame Candlestick Park and all that 'Stick foofaraw. I had a lot of fun back in the day at the concrete palace, but I'm not nostalgic by nature and get worn out on all that stuff. I could blame Pablo Sandoval, but I'm cutting him some slack because everyone has bad games and bad weeks. And this contract situation (or lack of same) could be in his head. The guy finally shows up to work in shape and what happens? He hits .132 and gets smacked down in negotiations. Not that I can fault The Brian Trust. Pablo, for all his amazing talent, is a risky proposition. I can understand the team feeling like he hasn't "earned" a Pence-like deal. I'd hate to see him in another uniform, I think of him as part of the core, but it might happen. So I'm all for sticking with the present tense. Stay healthy, Panda, and play some good baseball. Let's put the future behind us, OK?



p.s. Buster Posey bunted. Successfully. And got clotheslined by Paul Goldschmidt and emerged unscathed. Buster >> ordinary mortals.


Shankbone said...

I crashed out with 2 out in the bottom of the ninth. Didn't miss much. I think we've seen a fair amount of the Panda's game in the first 10 days of ball: when he's on he's great and when he's not he's not. Consistency is a good thing to value. I'm glad they didn't cave to a Pence or more demand. Look at Timmy and his 2/35MM. You can only have so many of those gambles. Jeff Kent wasn't the warmest egg in the world, but the dude showed up every day, gave you a professional at-bat and tended to business. We need that type of player, hard to find of course.

I'm OK with some stopgap options at 3B, there are a few interesting sleepers, we have a couple guys in AAA who might be able to pull a Feliz (although Feliz had some good d, underrated at the time), and I think its good the Giants are being like the Cards on this one, its OK to let a couple guys walk now and then. But Pablo is a homegrown, so its a hard call... But not when he's hitting singles and making outs.

2011: 315/357/552 155 OPS+ (Hammate #1 year)
2012: 283/342/447 123 OPS+ (Hammate #2 year, Say Hello to Verlander)
2013: 278/341/417 120 OPS+ (Arrive fat as hell year, 2nd half aided by a scorching Sept)

So... the harsh light of sabermetriczness... Every single counting stat has regressed in the past 3 years: BA, OBP, and most importantly SLG. Panda's unique style will always be somewhat dependent on BA for results more than most players.

I bet the Gigantes FO took a good look at a spreadsheet Shelly or Goldfarb put up, no way they aren't looking hard at this 3 year regression. In-shape Pablo if he's hitting gap double and bombs is worth the Pence. No way, even with the bad FA market ahead where his age stands out as a real gem, do you go chasing that kind of statistical regression.

We have a smart savvy FO. I trust them to play this right.

Shankbone said...

Or to put it another way...

If Panda's true talent is 280/340/420... You can find that player on the cheap, the Giants specialize in it. You can't find 315/357/552, that's for sure...

Zo said...

I think we are a long way from letting the Panda walk. I understand that Sabean rejected his agent's offer, but that doesn't mean that they won't make an offer in return - when the time is right. I agree that the FO is looking hard at stats, as well they should, but you can't see a 2014 regression two weeks into the season.