Baseball had its earliest opening day ever with the Mariners defeating the Athletics 9-7 in the Tokyo Dome. The vernal equinox occurs at 2:58 p.m. PDT today, but spring really starts when the games count. Well, that one counts, and they play another one before returning home and resuming the exhibition schedule (A's have three vs. Giants starting Sunday). Cory Gearrin and Hunter Strickland each threw a scoreless inning for Seattle.
The Giants see the Indians tonight and the Cubs tomorrow afternoon, with a split squad matchup against the Royals and Rockies Friday. Then it is the Diamondbacks on Saturday before the Oakland series. The real thing is only a-week-and-a-day away: Thursday the 28th in San Diego!
I was hoping there would be more roster cuts by now but it seems that waiting until the very last minute is the new m.o. and I guess I can't complain about that. Roster cuts give me something to write about. I'm ready for the 2019 season even if the team isn't.
--M.C.
10 comments:
The only description I can think of to describe the off-season is "sordid." The whole thing. Charles Johnson, Larry Baer, the endless non-news associated with Bryce Harper, the endless hype, the hyperventilating about how the free-agent system is broken, the Giants getting played like a cheap fiddle in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes (or were they complicit to cover their tracks for having done nothing?), Cameron Maybin (what, these fucking guys never heard of Uber?), the blame placed on California tax rates for the inability to attract free agents (as if no other rich people live in California). Rob Manfred. Especially Rob Manfred. All of it. I wish I could have tuned baseball completely out until about now. I probably could not have. I would have gone crazy and started scouring mlbtraderumors at 4 am.
And if I had, I would have found that the Giants did - nothing. I know they got a shiny new GM. And maybe those "analytics" take time to work. And he hired a bunch of other guys who won't be seen on the field. Beyond that? A novelty act that didn't stick around. A new pitcher with a 2018 era of 6 who is a lock for the starting rotation. (Does Drew Pomeranz use Pommade? Does he like Pomeranians?) So the Giants go into the season (yeah, I know, something might happen between now and opening day, or between now and July 31, or maybe it won't) with last year's team. They have an outfield that they hope, hope collectively comes up with a non-negative WAR. They have an infield that underperformed for 2.5 years now and is aging. They have some pretty decent pitching, even without one of our two aces, and good relief. So I'm picking them to finish last in the division. Maybe 4th, depending on just how much Arizona has thrown in the towel.
But, in spite of that, the Giants COULD be better. I think the injuries legitimately took their toll. I also have never figured out quite how to rationalize the lack of production from some of our players that really, have done better. If Belt can keep himself on the field, if Posey has recovered from his latest operation, if Longoria, who seemed to age about 10 years as soon as the Giants picked him up, can play anywhere near his TB stats, if Joe Panik wasn't just a flash-in-the-pan, if Crawford can put together a year like his first half - if someone on the outfield can actually live up to pretty modest expectations, and the others maybe not disappoint too much, then maybe, maybe the Giants can be entertaining again. The Giants improved 9 games from 2017 to 2018. 8 more games of improvement would be .500. That's not much to cheer about, it doesn't get you into the playoffs, but it's a step. I guess a step is all I'm hopeful for this year.
Well it hasn't been much fun I grant you that but I am looking forward to seeing the young ballplayers. The old guys are here to stay and there ain't much to be done about that, analytics or not. Other than eating salary of course, and that frees up roster spots, but unless you have better guys ready to take over for Posey, Belt, BCraw, Longoria, Cueto, Samardzija, & Melancon then it would be pointless.
I suspect much of the organizational makeover will be like this: slow, not real obvious, and un-exciting. I can only assume by what I've heard about FZ from other places that he has the skills and drive to be the leader of those changes. I'm willing to give him the chance.
I think a .500 ballclub is a reasonable expectation, as you say an 8-game improvement is the same as from 2017-2018.
'FZ' came in w/ a lot of hoo-ha about his track record, but let's really examine that:
- When 'FZ' got to LA, they had already made the Playoffs the previous two Seasons. One could say that he helped make them a 2-time NL Champion & got within a Game of a Title. Or, one could say that a lot of the moves that took them to the next level had already been made before he got there.
- The A's made the Playoffs the year before they promoted him to a substantial role, & then made them again the 2 years that 'FZ' had a more impressive job title.
'FZ' has no track record of turning a shitty, aging Team into a contender. Maybe he knows how, but I have yet to see anything giving me any confidence that he can. The tweaks have been so marginal & incremental as to almost be laughable. For example, we appear to be saddled w/ two Rule 5 guys. One of them (the lefty Relief Pitcher) may actually be good, but may force us to deal one of our few established high performers. The other? He's hit .111 in a long Spring Training look, & has hit below .200 in recent Minor League Seasons. If we keep him, we will have to keep him on the ML Roster for the entire Season.
I am dreading this Season. Our old guys are older. Our young guys are not too inspiring. If we keep them, our strength is our short Relievers - important, but there are a lot of other Innings to eat. And, I am so tired of waiting for Brandon Belt 'to really put it together'. How many jumbo-sized first basemen have had 3,600 MLB PA's, but have still never hit 20 HR's in a Season, nor driven in more than 82 runs in a Season? I bet that the answer is 'very few'. I bet that any of us can name 10 currently active 1B's off of the top of our heads who have done one or both of those things.
I'll give myself one minute starting now ...
Goldschmidt
Votto
Freeman
Josh Bell
M. Cabrera
Muncey
Alvarez
Rizzo
Santana
R. Healy
The only thing I can go on is what I glean from the same sources you have access to. I don't know Mr. Zaidi of course, but I'm happy to have him and look forward to what he can bring to the organization. You need smart, experienced people. He's got both. Certainly he may fail spectacularly. But we aren't going to decide that in March. We have this distorted idea about running a ballclub. We think it is like playing "Go Fish" and that we can pluck stars out of the air and instantly turn everything around. It doesn't go that way. We saw the Giants do this re-build thing before with a different brain trust. It can happen again. This is a much richer franchise now, maybe we'll see new investments in players, facilities, technology, etc.
Quit picking on Belt! He's a good ballplayer. Geez, what silly criteria for judging value. He's not, and never been, Paul Goldschmidt or Freddie Freeman. But he's given the Giants a lot of positive production. I'd rate him in the top third of all MLB first basemen since he's been a regular. That's not bad. That's good! It is possible to contribute meaningfully to a team without being a superstar. Of course he's older, and declining. They ALL are. (I fear BCraw's decline the most, he doesn't look good this spring.) Positionally speaking the only places the Giants are above average are catcher and first base, there are plenty of other places that really need an upgrade.
I'm not looking to assign blame for the team's failures. That's too easy of a writing task. I can choose any part of the team and write a searing expose about their incompetence in that department. So what? I'm not interested in that. I'm looking to see what's next. I'm eager. I'm excited. I want to see how they are going to dig themselves out. I know full well they could be a last place team and that will disappoint me greatly. I like it a lot better when they win, just like any fan. But I'm not going to rag on FZ until he has a chance to bring in all the new people it will take, and to see to fruition some of the things already in place and things he's putting into place.
Before I go any further, I will say that, as an important member of 2 of our Championship Teams, as a good defensive 1B, as an OBP guy, & as a cool, likable guy, I love Brandon Belt. I just think that 1B is an offensive production position, Lord knows, we need offensive production, & for a whole string of reasons, he hasn't one single 'loud' year. Just one loud year in a career for a highly-ranked 1B doesn't seem like a big ask. Top third of current 1B's? Not sure about that. I doubt that you can look me in the eye & say that you didn't expect Belt to be at least as good as Rizzo. I know that I did - I thought that Belt would be better. Career span is exactly the same - Rizzo has almost 1 WAR per Season more than Belt.
And, I've never heard of a Team carrying two Rule 5 guys. Maybe, we'll return Ferguson, before the Season starts.
If we had a corner OF and a 3B as good as Belt (relative to the league) we'd be pretty good.
I had no expectations for Belt vis-a-vis Rizzo. I wasn't paying attention to Anthony Rizzo at that time.
Look at it this way: there were 1521 players drafted in the 2009 June draft. TEN of those players have put up 20 or more bWAR. Another TWELVE have put up at least 10 bWAR. That's Belt's peer group (he was a 5th rounder, 147th overall). He's one of 22 guys out of 1521 to make an impact at the big league level. Here's the ten: Trout (64), Goldschmidt (40), Arenado (33), Kyle Seager (28), Matt Carpenter (26), Dozier (24), Belt (23), Kipnis (20), Pollock (20), JD Martinez (20).
The Giants first round pick that year was Zack Wheeler. He's listed at 6.3 bWAR. I suspect he'll crack the ten mark soon. I know WAR is not the be-all and end-all of stats, but it is a fair "thumbnail sketch" of a guy's contributions.
I should note that both Rizzo and Belt are credited with 2.7 WAR for last season by B-R (Belt's glove work is the difference I suspect). FanGraphs gives Rizzo 2.9 and Belt 2.1, and that's with Rizzo in 153 games and Belt in 112. I think context matters a lot. The park hurts Belt big time in counting numbers. But as far as value and talent they are pretty damn close. Rizzo was drafted two years before Belt but didn't start full time until 2013. He's mostly been injury-free, having over 600 PA every year since.
As far as the Rule V guys, I think Ferguson has blown his chance. The Giants OF is desperate for someone to step up. Plus that pitcher, Bergen, has looked good.
Matt Joyce is the latest addition. Lefty, but plays all three OF positions. Had two good years in 16-17 (Pit-Oak) before a poor 2018.
Matt Joyce seems like a good gamble, as long as they cut Drew Ferguson loose. He has some good power for being relatively anonymous. I remember him more w/ Tampa (he even made the All-Star Team one year), but he did have some good Oakland years, too.
Yeah, you have to figure one of these guys (other than Parra and Duggar) will stick. I'm assuming they'll open with Williamson and give him a shot but a short leash. They'll have to cut him loose (no options) if not.
I like it when ballplayers are confident (from Baggs' story on The Athletic):
“We know our main question is about health. It’s not about talent,” Belt said. “Maybe other people think we’re too old or they don’t believe in us, but we do. We know there’s no doubt if we’re healthy and all on the field, we’ll be one of the best if not the best infields in the major leagues.
“Mark it down if you want.”
I find that athletes are very interesting when it comes to the mental preparation to compete. They have to talk themselves into these states of total self-belief. It's a tool they have to master, especially in a failure-oriented sport like baseball. They have to be relentlessly positive, and that's not easy. It certainly does not come naturally to me! As a fan I want to have that same kind of discipline. Not only does it make being a fan more fun (focusing on the good things and not the bad), it spills over into the rest of life. Athletes have to keep competing even if they are in last place or trailing 10-0 in the 9th. Managers have to maintain their faith in the ballclub even if the results stink. Those are great outlooks to have for any endeavor, for any person, for any task or situation, don't you think? I'm reminded of Gregor Blanco, who was asked if he watched the replay of his spectacular gaffe in the 9th inning of Game 7 of the 2014 World Series. He said: "no, because I only want to keep positive images in my head." I think that's what you have to do to succeed at that level.
Hunter Pence makes the Texas roster. Talk about Mr. Positive!
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