“Right now, he’s part of this rotation,” manager Bruce Bochy said following the Giants’ 8-0 loss to the Cubs on Saturday. “That’s where he stands. He’s throwing the ball well.” (I added the italics!)That's one of those definite 'maybes' that managers are good at. That's fine. You have to win ballgames and thus you have to use the players who are performing. And D-Rod's performance last season was one of the few highlights, and so far this spring he isn't doing anything to discourage the brass. That likely bumps Andrew Suarez who still has three options left. A crowded 'pen means he'll start the season in AAA, probably alongside Tyler Beede, the 2014 first-round pick who has impressed everyone so far with a rebuilt repertoire.
Obviously Madison Bumgarner is the centerpiece of the 2019 rotation. Two injury-shortened seasons interrupted a run of six straight 200+ IP campaigns, and his two-year peak (2015-2016) was worth 10 WAR. Lots of questions are buzzing around the big lefty what with dropping fastball velocity, reduced break on the curve, and an increased walk rate, but he's not yet 30 (that happens in August) and ought to be able to return to form. If he stays healthy I should think we have a good chance of seeing a rejuvenated MadBum. Will they trade him? Only if they are in last place by the deadline. Aging players and analytics are one thing--fans in the seats are another. I think the Giants would love to keep him and will try to if he has a strong year. At the very least they can make him a qualifying offer in the off-season and get compensation if he bolts. Publicly Bumgarner has said he wants to stay, I believe him, and I hope he can.
The rest of the group seems pretty easy: Derek Holland, Jeff Samardzija, and Drew Pomeranz. With Chris Stratton in the wings (swing man in the 'pen?), who is out of options, and Ty Blach also down in AAA (along with Jose Lopez and Merandy Gonzalez), the Giants have some flexibility. Samardzija's main value has been his durability and long outings, coming off injury maybe they'll use him a little less and try to maintain his effectiveness with some shorter stints (it looks like a strong bullpen this year). The Dodgers only used Rich Hill for 25 starts in each of the last two seasons, for example, and that kept him fresh. Even Clayton Kershaw maxes out under 180 IP these days. We may see that with Pomeranz, who was a 6+ WAR pitcher in 2016-2017, his career high is 173-2/3. Holland made 30 starts last year, I'll take the under on that one.
The projection systems aren't kind to the Giants, but I think this bunch has a lot of talent and if they are used creatively they could be strong all season. I mentioned the Dodgers because Farhan Zaidi is much associated with the revolving-door rotation that LA has employed lately. I can't argue with it. The Giants had that big-arm innings-eating style way back in 2016 with Johnny Cueto joining Bum and Smardj in the 200+ club, but them days is past.
I know this post is about the starters, but keep an eye on 2018's phenom Reyes Moronta. This guy is fun to watch and has made it clear he wants to be a closer. Well, 79 whiffs out of 262 batters (30%) ought to get you some notice!
--M.C.
19 comments:
If they stay healthy, an 87 win team. Keep Beede on 25 man. They need someone (Shaw?) to play LF.
Abiatal Avelino, Ryder Jones, and Chris Shaw were all optioned. A bunch of others were as well, but these guys are all on the 40-man and stood at least an outside chance of making the club.
Steven Duggar, Drew Ferguson, Austin Slater, and Mac Williamson are still in the OF mix along with NRIs Cameron Maybin and Gerardo Parra.
Another NRI, Yangervis Solarte is in the infield mix with Pablo Sandoval and Alen Hanson.
Giants have 19 pitchers right now on the active roster and another half dozen non-roster guys who are still in limbo.
On a personal note--HAPPY BIRTHDAY RON!!
Thanks, Mark!!!! 61 today, making me almost exactly one month older than the SF Giants!
I assume you saw this re the Giants IFA history.
Let's hope they get better!
Same question as with the farm system. How was it allowed to become so poor when it was not always this way? Who was in charge and why do they still have jobs? To allow international scouting and a farm system to both fall off the cliff is inexcusable. Maybe the whole front office should be fired.
It is especially inexcusable for a Team overflowing w/ both Fans' cash & Fans' goodwill.
I'm not sure we'll ever know "how" and "why" but I think the Front Office IS getting that makeover!
They brought in JP Ricciardi as a Senior Adviser, same role as John Barr and Dick Tidrow.
They brought in Michael Holmes, Zack Minasian, and Craig Weissman from outside the organization to beef up the scouting.
Not to mention FZ coming in and he will likely oversee lots of personnel changes, the biggest being replacing Bochy.
SF Giants INC is bigger than baseball, they are now a real estate company, too. That should keep up the revenue stream! We can only hope they dump money into the places they need to. They are upgrading their entire Spring Training complex, for example, apparently they have one of the oldest setups in Arizona. A couple of years ago they created a new baseball academy in the DR, at the time Sabes acknowledged they were "long overdue." That doesn't explain WHY, but at least they acted on it!
Like I always say: "We'll see!"
Meanwhile, in actual news about how MLB conducts its business [editorial remarks by me added]:
'The two sides have agreed to make July 31 a hard deadline for the completion of trades, thus doing away with the convoluted August waiver system [FANTASTIC - that whole August things was silly]. That change will go into effect for the 2019 season. Beginning in 2020, the standard roster size will expand from 25 to 26 (with a 13-pitcher maximum) [meh]. September rosters, meanwhile, will shrink from 40 to 28 (with a 14-pitcher maximum) [seems a bit restrictive - I kind of liked that free-wheeling September stuff - for Teams in the races, having an extra pinch-runner, etc. was nice - plus, it kept it interesting for Teams out of the races who could try out new prospects. Will probably lead to a bunch of veteran 'injuries' in September, so that more prospects can be called up.].'
Yeah I've been watching those developments and I tend to agree with you. I like having a hard deadline for trades and an expanded late-season roster is better for the younger players (and the fans as you point out).
What they really need to address is more money for minor league players and shortened (or eliminated) service time before free agency.
Also in 2020 - a three batter minimum for pitchers. So, more scoring off of ineffective relievers, longer starts (contrary to what the trend is among managers, and consequently, longer games. An excuse for Rob Manfred to FURTHER fuck things up.
Seems like it would be better to simply limit the number of pitchers on the roster, that way managers would be parsimonious with pitching changes. Also, I like the idea of incentives. Why not create incentives for faster play (most of Manfred's ideas are about speeding up the game)? These are professionals after all, and professionals get paid, and when you pay for particular outcomes, those outcomes tend to happen.
Lefty-righty Pat Venditte will not break camp with the big club, he gets optioned to AAA (along with Austin Slater). Much was made of his versatility and I expect we will see him again. He spent a lot of last season in AAA and still appeared in 15 G for the Dodgers. He has no options left after this move.
In what universe is a $2M + $1M minor league deal for Carlos Gonzalez not worth the time of day for a Team w/ as mediocre a collection of OF's as ours? Yes, his non-Coors splits are crappy, but they are still better than anyone currently playing in our OF.
Well, the Indians will soon find out, if they got their money's worth.
On a more positive note, Susana & I were walking back home at dusk last night after Dinner. We heard the distinctive hooting sound of an Owl. Miraculously, despite the minimal light, I spotted the Owl on a low-ish branch of a nearby tree. We stood there, a mere 10 or so feet away, listening to it & watching it move its head around, for about 10 minutes, before it flew off. Western Screech-Owl, for sure!
I think it is because they already have a lefty OF, Gerardo Parra, who they like better defensively, and is probably a wash with the bat (less power but fewer strikeouts). CarGo doesn't hit lefties anymore, and our park hurts his potential long ball threat. They passed on Adam Jones, too, and he signed cheaply with Arizona. Giants could use a power RH bat like his but I suspect they don't like his fielding numbers.
Boch says Duggar is the Opening Day CF.
Ray Black and Tyler Beede optioned to AAA. Not surprising despite both showing good form this spring. Black throws 100 mph and will have a spot in the 'pen once the current logjam clears. And Beede is a future starter, most likely. Guys like Pomeranz and Holland are on one-year deals, for example. He's 26 in May and was the 2014 1st-round pick (#14 overall). Of the seven pitchers selected ahead of him, four are major-leaguers (Carlos Rodon, Aaron Nola, Kyle Freeland and Jeff Hoffman), three (Brady Aiken, Tyler Kolek, Kodi Medeiros) have yet to see ML time. Kyle Schwarber, Michael Conforto, and Trea Turner were also drafted ahead of Beede. Matt Chapman was the 25th pick.
It is always fun to see the young talent emerge. Dereck Rodriguez and Reyes Moronta delivered some exciting performances last season and I'm hoping for more from both of them. Steven Duggar is getting a big chance this season, we'll see if he can make the most of it and show us his game.
Mike Trout signed what can only be called a bargain-basement deal. He's the most talented player in the game today BY FAR and he got Machado/Harper money. Trout is one of those few absolute LOCKS. He's already a HOF CF by WAR! Investing in him for the next 10 years involves so much less uncertainty than Harper or Machado. On the open market he'd be paid TWICE what he got. It will be interesting to see if the Angels can build a winner around him. And whether or not they'll still have that stupid name: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Fer chrissakes, be the LA Angels or the Anaheim Angels, either one works.
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