Thursday, October 31, 2019

The End

The Washington Nationals take the crown in the 115th World Series by winning both game six and game seven in Houston. The Astros won all three games in D.C. and the Nats won all four games in the Astrodome. That's the only time the visiting team has won all the games in World Series history. I'm reminded of the 1987 Series when the Minnesota Twins and the St. Louis Cardinals won all their home games and lost all their away games! The Twins had home field advantage and thus prevailed four games to three.

The Astros were a heavy favorite. A -200 moneyline is the same as 2:1 odds, that is, the favorite is expected to win 67% of the time. I have a hard time believing any World Series matchup is that lopsided. I think the teams are generally closer in talent. I could see giving a stronger team a 55% chance to win (-120 or 6:5) in a seven-game series, but anything over 60% (-150 or 3:2) seems like a reach. The Nats beat a 106-win team (LA Dodgers) and a 107-win team (Astros) to win the title.

The long baseball season is over and we have to suffer for several months without our favorite sport. The Giants should have an interesting off-season as they have a lot of work to do. I'll keep you posted.

--M.C.

10 comments:

Murf the Smurf said...

Although I like the Astros, I had to root for the team that was not only the underdog, but also had never won a World Series. Now the Phillies should use some of their extra cash this winter to pick up Cole and Strasburg, both free agents.

M.C. O'Connor said...

Don't forget Anthony Rendon--he's a free agent, too!

Zo said...

Strasburg is under contract for 4 more years, he has the option to opt out this year and again after 2020. Money flowing into bets influences the odds. The odds are not reflective of how much better bettors think a team is, but of how little they are willing to take for a winning bet (or conversely, how much of a payoff they want to probably lose their money). For example, the Giants could be 100:1 to take the 2020 crown right now. That doesn't mean that other teams are 100 times better, it means that the odds makers think that $100 will be bet against them for every $1 bet for them.

Zo said...

100:1 was off the top of my head, but I just looked it up and according to CBS news, the odds of the Giants winning it all in 2020 are indeed 100:1.

M.C. O'Connor said...

Oh I know that Vegas sets the odds for bettors, but bettors are just reflecting the mood of the people. Most people thought a Houston win was a "good bet" and so the oddsmakers had to give you incentive to bet on Washington.

M.C. O'Connor said...

Bullpen coach Matt Herges goes to AZ as their new pitching coach.

Mike Matheny gets the manager job in KC.

nomisnala said...

Nice to see a wildcard team win the WS. Many of folks during the year thought that a wildcard team did not have a chance this year. Just goes to show you, in baseball, anything can happen.

Zo said...

A wild card team won in 2014. Most people who make predictions just look at records, and admittedly, the strongest records were held by Houston, LA, NY, Minnesota and Atlanta. I, for one, thoroughly enjoyed the playoffs and series. First, LA got eliminated, suggesting (although not guaranteeing) that the Nationals were a team of destiny. Then, the Yankees were pushed out by Houston. When we got the series, we got great pitching and some surprises along the way (like game 7 - it was Houston's bullpen that collapsed, not the Nats). I had a hunch that, if the Nats bullpen could do just enough, their starters might be good enough to beat Houston, and it seemed like that is what happened, by a very small margin. Also, Greinke did not get to be the hero. I'm fine with Corbin being one.

M.C. O'Connor said...

It was good baseball. I've talked to lots of people, even casual fans, who felt the same way.

The Giants had a guy who really knew how to play tournament baseball. It is different than full-season baseball. Boch had to go through a painful WS loss to the Yankees (and that was a good SD ball club) in '98 in order to become the poker-playing wizard we got to see in '10, '12, and '14. The Nats have had a run of painful post-seasons and now they are champs. I hope their fans appreciate it!

M.C. O'Connor said...

Tony Watson will be back. Kyle Barraclough and Fernando Abad will not. Barraclough was cut to make room for Tyler Anderson.

Mets hire Carlos Beltran to be their manager.

Rays bench coach Matt Quartaro is supposedly one of the Giants managerial candidates.