Of the last four teams standing in the post-season, three of them have MLB's highest payrolls. Cot's Contracts has two payroll lists, one called Year End 40-man and the other called CB Tax 40-man. In the first list it goes Mets ($341.5M), Yankees ($303.8M), and Dodgers ($288.3M). Figuring in the Competitive Balance Tax keeps the Mets ($356.2M) in the top spot with the Dodgers ($351.7M) and Yankees ($314.8M) switching places.
The three highest-spending teams in the two biggest baseball markets are in the League Championship Series. That's the semi-finals. The winners go to the World Series. The networks are guaranteed one LA-NY matchup (that starts tonight on Fox) and may get two.
The Cleveland Guardians are 21st ($106.1M) and 23rd ($139.7M) on the two payroll lists. They have not won the World Series since 1948, back when they were the Indians and had guys like Bob Feller and Larry Doby. Any discerning baseball fan who isn't rooting for the Guardians is doing the game a disservice. I'll exempt lifelong fans of the other clubs. After all, somebody must like them.
--M.C.
p.s. The moneyline (Fanduel) on winning the whole thing stands at Dodgers (+150), Yankees (+170), Mets (+410), and finally the Guardians (+550). If you bet 100 bucks on the Bums you'll clear 50 bucks if they win. They are 3-to-2 favorites. The longshot G's will make you a profit of 450 bucks if they pull off two upsets. Their odds come in at 11-to-2.
22 comments:
It's interesting to see the money lines, because, it is of course influenced by money. I like the odds on the Guardians although I wouldn't touch FanDuel with a stick. Not that I think the Guardians will necessarily win (although I sure hope so) but because I think they are much more evenly matched than 11 to 2. It's tough to match the Yanks in hitting, but I think the GoT's have better pitching.
Yeah I like looking at betting lines because they are an accumulation of many inputs. Bettors are of course a subset of the population, and hardly a representative sample, but sports has always had bettors and oddsmakers and they help shape the narrative. Las Vegas can sum up a lot of analysis in simple dollars-and-cents terms.
CLE 3.86 RA/G and NYY 4.12 RA/G, 3rd best and 9th best. ERAs are real close, CLE 3.61, NYY 3.74 while FIPs are nearly identical 3.98 to 4.06.
Bryan Price has decided to retire. He cites a desire to be with family. He was offered a two-year contract a year ago, opted for a one-year deal in anticipation of this. He is from Mill Valley and goes way back to college with Bob Melvin. It was a tough year for Giants pitching, but they did remarkably well, considering.
It has been reported that J. P. Martinez, Asst. Pitching Coach, has been promoted
I heard some talk about Ryan Vogelsong getting the nod. He's an instructor in the minors. So for the most part the coaching staff will be the same next year. There are a lot of exciting young arms available, that's for sure. We'll see if Buster chases after some big FAs to bolster the staff.
That was a wild Guardians-Yankees game in Cleveland. I really hope the G's can hang in there.
Yankees, yuck. I'm hoping for the Dodgers only because an all-NY Series is too grotesque to contemplate. At least LA-NY includes the other half of the country. But either way it's a far less compelling contest now. MLB I'm sure is drooling over Ohtani v. Judge and whatnot. Boooooring.
They're drooling over having the 2 biggest markets. That alone is why I always root for, say, Kansas City vs Milwaukee. NY vs LA is not boring, more just like watching bad pornography with the announcers doing the ejaculating. Makes you feel like you need a shower.
Of course, that's what TV wants EVERY year. As the rest of the country gradually looses interest and the sport slowly dies.
I'm with you. (Nice description, by the way!)
Anyway they got the moneyline right. The two faves made it and had games to spare.
Fanduel says -122 for LA and +104 for NY while BetMGM says -130 for the Dodgers and +110 for the Yankees.
That seems right to me. I think LA is a slight favorite, esp with home field. Their offense is deeper. After the top four guys Yanks don't hit much. The Yankees have Cole, he could make an impact, the LA starters are a mess and they have to rely on their 'pen more, but this post-season has NOT been about starting pitching!
I think it will come down to Shohei. We have already seen Juan Soto get one big hit after another, if Ohtani does the same I think that will give LA the edge.
Seeing all the money involved, and the markets involved, one would have to think that Robo Umps calling balls and strikes would take away any financial bias, any ump may inadvertently have. Having a Yankee Dodger series shows 1. that at least this year money is important in buying championships, and 2. those who believe in conspiracy theories that everything is being done to have big market teams make it to the WS, is a real thing.
I'm reading that Zack Minisian, currently the Giants' Vice President of Scouting, will be promoted to GM.
That's Zack Minasian.
Buster said he wanted someone with a "scouting background" and I suppose he fits the bill!
I thought Yankees fielding and baserunning were bad the entire Series and that obviously really hurt them in the end. Dodgers are so loaded it's ridiculous. Ohtani goes 2-for-19 and adds a dumb baserunning injury and it matters not. It's hard not to appreciate what a great all-round ballplayer Mookie Betts is after watching him.
Snell opted out.
Other than Jazz Chisolm making LA look silly in Game 1 that is.
Robbie Ray has declined to opt out, so he will be a Giant for the next 2 seasons.
If he can be healthy for 25-30 starts he will be valuable. It's hard to know at 33 how he'll do. His K numbers looked good.
David Laurila of FanGraphs talks to Bryce Eldridge:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-bryce-eldridge-wants-to-crush-pitches-in-the-air/
Laurila's "Sunday Notes" is the best thing going in the baseball scribe world.
I've read that Austin Slater has signed with the White Sox. I would like to see him come back to SF someday, as a broadcaster. I heard him sit in when he was hurt in 2023, he's a natural.
He was the player rep for a few years as well. Plus, the connection to Stanford. He was drafted the same year (2014) as Logan Webb.
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