He's 29 so I don't think it fits but I couldn't resist. He did reach the majors as a 22-year old. And Baseball-Reference lists 'The Kid' as his nickname. Regardless, as Zo said in the comments on the previous post, this is something the Giants needed to do. It's a whopper of a deal by SFG standards--seven years and $182M--but it's not so much on the breakdown. Major league shortstops cost this much. At $10M per WAR he would have to be an 18-WAR player over the life of the contract. That seems reasonable. He's a 20+ WAR player over his first seven seasons. His reputation is that of an all-rounder. He's not great at anything in particular, just good at everything. He's a ballplayer. A Buster kind of guy.
Adames makes the left side of the Giants infield really strong. He and Matt Chapman will put on a show and create a lot of outs. This moves Tyler Fitzgerald to second base where he will be a better fit.
The Giants have been linked to Corbin Burnes and that would be a good move, too.
--M.C.
23 comments:
I really do not get the Corbin speculation, at all, assuming it is even real. When I last looked, the Giants had Webb and Ray and a cast of promising youngsters without breaking the bank. Hicks, Harrison, Birdsong, Roupp, Winn, Beck, Black, Bivens, and maybe Ragsdale are more than enough to fill out a starting rotation AND trade for another hitter, if they so choose. Are these guys all promising or are they not?
TINSTAAPP
(There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.)
The NL West is too competitive to bank on the emergence of young aces. You have to get the players you need to compete. Then if the youngsters are studs you go from a good team to a VERY good team with a real chance in the playoffs. Right now the Giants need a roster that can make the post-season. That means improving by about ten wins. That's why they need Burnes as well as Adames and maybe a few other pieces.
That isn't to say I don't like the current crop of young arms. I do. But you need bankable performers, not wishful thinking. And if you get Burnes you have some bodies to potentially trade.
The Giants have plenty of bank. They can afford to spend.
Here's the pre-Adames ZIPS projections for the Giants:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-projections-san-francisco-giants/
I have to disagree. Young pitchers are valuable currency, and the Giants have a bunch. Trade a few for an older starter if you want, or trade a few for a hitter, or just use them as you need them. The Giants said they were going to reduce payroll (like so many teams have said). Burnes will not do that.
I saw that about "reducing payroll" and thought that it's the last thing they should do! They need talent to compete with the rest of the NL West. They've got a lot of young players which is great. Some of them just might make it. But they have no reason not to spend. They have plenty of money.
Adames is basically a 250 hitter, with decent power for a shortstop. He does strike out a lot, and along with Chapman they will have a tight left side of the infield, and between them probably hit at least 50 home runs, but also strike out around 350 times. I hope Ramos and Fitzgerald can build on their solid years. With Lee and perhaps Wade to have decent OBP's to start the lineup, at least against righties, then we have Adames, Ramos and Chapman with some power. Bailey at short, and probably Yaz in right but possibly platoonish. And a host of guys who can DH. I like McCrae but only if he can make contact. With hit speed he needs to make contact and not K at the pace he does. Guy could get a lot of hit on just balls in play. Luciano looks like a possible DH along with encarnacion from the right side. We also have Wilmer Flores, and depending on his health can be a big asset or not. Matos and Schmidt are intriguing.
If the Giants must go find another starting pitcher, they should target Sasaki. That kind of tells Jordan Hicks to fuck off, but at least they wouldn't lose draft picks (I think). They could pitch it as how he could be the guy who strikes out Ohtani instead of just another guy on Ohtani's team. Also, Juan Soto will be a Met for 15 years for only $765 million dollars.
The Giants need to pursue another front-line starter. If it's not Burnes then let it be Roki Sasaki. I'm all in!
Alex Cobb is a Tiger.
Thairo Estrada is a Rockie.
Michael Conforto is a (yuck) dogger.
Not sure if Thairo Estrada's problems were due to injuries last year. And, if he decides not to swing for the fences all the time in the Colorado atmosphere, he could have a major comeback year. It is difficult to tell, as fans, without inside medical information, if a player is likely to do better if actually healthy, or if injuries had nothing to do with his fall off. I thought he was an under-rated fielder at second, and despite what I would read from the analysts, his fielding at second passed my eye test. Despite striking out a lot and hitting for a lower average, he seemed to still be decent in RBI situations. His diminished stolen bases, either speaks to his slowing down, but more likely speaks to nagging injuries.
He was a good player for the Giants but never got it going last year after the injury. I think with the emergence of Tyler Fitzgerald and still having guys like Wilmer Flores around made Estrada expendable.
From MLBTR (Darragh McDonald):
It was reported last month that the Giants were looking to scale back payroll relative to 2024 levels, but that may no longer be the case. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports reports that the club initially had planned on focusing more on player development in 2025 while taking a step back in terms of building the major league roster, but now seems to have changed course.
Whatever. We will know soon enough. If it's true I'm all for it. I think they need another starter!
There's talk of some work on the margins. Paul Goldschmidt is one name floated around. He'd DH/1B platoon with Wade (or they trade Wade). His numbers have plunged since we was MVP in 2022. But we know lots of old guys find new life with a new team and a more limited role.
And there are always ancient arms around like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.
I hope they do not go after Verlander and Scherzer. Getting one of the possible co=aces for Webb could be the best move. We have so many young players who could break out, they need the chance. Schmidt, Matos, Luciano, are among those who could easily be the next Ramos. They need the chance.
Wow I just heard Rickey Henderson passed away!! He's just about a year older than me (he would have been 66 on Christmas Day, I turned 65 in November).
https://nypost.com/2024/12/21/sports/rickey-henderson-baseball-legend-dead-at-65/
Bill James once wrote "if you break Rickey in two, you'd have TWO Hall of Famers."
Ehire Adrianza retired. He spent 12 years in MLB! He started as a 16-year old with the Giants and didn't make his debut until he was 23. I really like those guys on the fringes, the utility players who manage to keep a roster spot. Adrianza played for 6 different clubs (624 G, 1578 PA, 3284 innings on the field), mostly SS-3B, PH, PR. We see lots of guys come and go, so it is cool to see guys stick around for a decade or more.
Steve Admas at MLBTR talks about the Giants and Corbin Burnes at the end of a long post:
San Francisco might offer the best blend of spending capacity and need for an ace. Logan Webb is a legitimate #1, but the Giants haven’t replaced the production they lost when Blake Snell walked. Beyond Webb, San Francisco’s rotation consists of upside plays with questions about their durability and/or performance track records (i.e. Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong).
The Giants have made two nine-figure investments in recent months. They extended Matt Chapman for $151MM in September before adding Willy Adames on a seven-year, $182MM free agent deal. RosterResource calculates their luxury tax number at approximately $208MM, which puts them around $33MM shy of the base threshold. Their actual salary commitments sit around $167MM. That puts them almost $40MM below last year’s spending level. It’s not clear if ownership is willing to again push beyond $200MM in Opening Day payroll, but they could theoretically add Adames and Burnes without a significant spike in relative spending.
I think it's a good analysis. The Giants can afford to be aggressive here. They've got a nice crop of young talent and they need to beef up the roster to support that group. It's been an 80-win team for three years. To get to 90 wins will take some additional talent.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/corbin-burnes-reportedly-seeking-245mm.html
Supposedly the Diamondbacks have signed Burnes. Ah, well. I guess we'll have to hope Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison are really good!
6 years, $210M for Burnes.
https://www.mlb.com/news/corbin-burnes-contract-with-d-backs
Giants could have done that easily. Of course long-term deals (and esp. w/ pitchers) are risky. So what? You have to take some risks. The Giants are being out-maneuvered by the Dodgers, the Padres, and the Diamondbacks. That's a recipe for fourth place!
Anyway it's not about Burnes. It's about the 2025 team. I don't think they have done enough to improve it. We need more upgrades!
We need a DH. I have questions about the relief staff. They were overworked last year, but is that the only problem? I am less concerned with losing Burnes because I think highly of our young staff.
I actually like the bullpen. I think the relief corps is pretty solid, esp. with the emergence of Erik Miller and Ryan Walker. I think Doval will bounce back. And there's the Rogers Boyz who will be solid as always.
We need some LH hitting. Bailey, Wade, and Yaz aren't enough. Lee, even if he hits well, lacks power. Sabol, McCray, and Wisely are the other lefties.
I like the young arms (Harrison, Winn, Birdsong) but they still need a veteran starter. Ray and Hicks are both question marks. Let's say two of those five guys can give us 2.0+ WAR apiece. They'd still need another starter.
According to MLBtraderumors, both the O's and the Giants offered Burnes more, but he "Wanted to pitch in the desert." I don't understand this. I can understand if someone wants to live in a desert, but not pitch in one. Don't hit balls travel farther?
He's from Bakersfield, maybe that explains it. He played ball at St. Mary's so I thought the Giants would be able to take advantage of the local connection. Ah, well.
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