FanGraphs has released its projected standings and playoff odds for 2025. The Giants, as you might expect, are predicted to be a .500 (81-81) team!
The NL West will be dominated by the Dodgers, again no surprise there, and the second-best team is expected to be the Diamondbacks. That's not unreasonable given their two top starters and their quality lineup. What's interesting to Giants fans is that the Padres are looking vulnerable. The Giants have a real shot at third place.
Sorry for the poor picture. Click the links above to see the whole thing. Or click on the image to enlarge it.
Going from a .500 team to a playoff team will require at least five more wins. Ten would be better. Last year it took 86 wins (Tigers and Royals) in the AL and it took 89 wins (Mets and Braves) in the NL to make the cut.
Are the 2025 Giants ten games better than the 2024 team? I don't see it. A five game improvement looks possible with the addition of Adames and (we hope) bounce back years from Doval and Ray and continued improvement from Harrison, Fitzgerald, and Ramos.
The 2025 team is relying on internal solutions. The young corps needs to step up and contribute!
--M.C.
p.s. David Pinto at Baseball Musings had a post a while back with a proposal to re-arrange the divisions so more teams have a chance at the playoffs. It's a little rough, but it's a cool idea. It at least addresses some of the things Zo mentioned in his last post.
6 comments:
It is all speculation. Luckily they get to play the games. Arizona also lost a few good players, and replaced a few. Do not see it as a net gain, and it all depends on how their young players perform. I expect the Dodgers if healthy to win more than 97.5 games, and would expect them to exceed 105 wins. The giants picture is more like 81 but with a possible upside of 87 or 88 with a down side probably not lower than 78 as long as Webb stays healthy. The giants situation depends a lot on how well young players do and if any break out positively on the upside. If Ramos stays at a decent level and one more young player breaks out, they could be a much more solid team. Will Harrison show his true potential and become a winning pitcher? What about there other pitchers? Will they have a year like Gausman and Desclafani had when they exceeded expectations, or will they fall off and be worse than expected? I think there is a good chance that the giants can get into the wild card but expect as a Western division team, a lot of losses to the dodgers.
I agree with everything you said. But it is the same old refrain: "if x and y and z happen then we are a playoff team."
Too many "ifs" for my taste. Then again, hope springs eternal! I'm looking forward to Spring Training. We'll get a good look at Eldridge, I'm eager to see a healthy Lee, they picked up another catcher (Sam Huff), maybe someone like Whisenhunt will get a chance, etc. There's a lot to look forward to.
I agree, of course there are too many if, ands, and buts, but with young players, that are not proven perennial all stars that is how it goes. One worry about the giants lineup is the potential for way too many K's and not enough BB's. Maybe Lee does not strike out a lot, but I can see, Chapman, Fitzgerald, Ramos, Yaz, and Adamas to K, significantly more than 100 times, and some of the other players on the roster are not exactly contact hitters. To me, in order to utilize a player like McCrae's skills, he has to learn to make contact. He has exceptional speed. I would like to see Fitz and Schmidt make a little more contact too, although both seem to have power. Not sure what the giants are going to do with Villar. So far he seems to be a 4A, player with significant power. Everyone is waiting for Luciano to break out while he is still on the giants, so we don't have to let him go like Bart, and then break out.
2 years, $54M for Alonso (back to the Mets). If he gives them 5 WAR (not out of the question) that's just under $11M per WAR, at 6 WAR it's $9M per WAR.
If you are a .500 or better team, each win you add makes a bigger and bigger difference because you get closer to the Holy Grail (the post-season). An 85-win team should be HIGHLY MOTIVATED to spend money to get to 90 wins and damn close to a guaranteed playoff spot. A $50M move is cheap for them.
A 75-win team can't spend on Alonso. He's too expensive and 2-3 more WAR in a lineup isn't worth it when you need a dozen more. You have to develop cheap talent (draftees and international free agents).
So what do teams like the Giants do? The Giants are a .500 club over the last three seasons. 240 wins, 246 losses. They aren't in the 75 bracket, they don't need to improve that much, and they aren't financially constrained. Or shouldn't be.
If they are in the 85 bracket, they should be spending. I wasn't hoping for Alonso, but that kind of money is not a barrier for San Francisco's owners. If they are trying to stay under the cap then they are just cheaping out. You can't "make memories" with a .500 club!
Man, I really need Spring Training to start. I am sick of the off-season! I'm even tired of hearing myself whine about the Giants.
David Villar is the kind of player that the Dodgers will rescue off the scrap heap in two years and he'll morph into Justin Turner. (Oh, I'm even sorry I said that. Please God don't let it be true.) Villar is 28, healthy, and out of options. This is it for him. I hope he has a good spring. I'd love to see him bust out.
Farhan Zaidi is working in LA's front office again. It would be churlish to suggest that the "again" is unnecessary.
Alyssa Nakken is now working in player development for the Guardians.
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