Bad Boys

Teams rise and and teams fall. We've seen that with the Giants, have we not? Today we found out that baseball was not happy about the Astros and their sign-stealing shenanigans. The manager (AJ Hinch) and GM (Scott Lunhow) were suspended for a year without pay by MLB and were then promptly fired by the team's owner (Jim Crane). The toast of the baseball world not long ago will also be stripped of 1st- and 2nd-round draft picks for the next two years. Ouch! Oh, and a $5M fine, which I understand is the maximum. Chump change for this industry. I should note that The Athletic was given credit for breaking the story. If you read this blog regularly you know I like that site, they have a nice supply of good writers so there is usually something interesting or useful to read. The Astros still have a formidable team, talent-wise, I should note. Also there will likely be fallout in Boston as manager Alex Cora was on Hinch's staff. The Sox are facing a potential sign-stealing investigation as well. Carlos Beltran, the Mets new manager, was an active player on that 2017 championship team. I remember a story after that World Series that Beltran had picked up a tell from Yu Darvish and let all the guys on the team know, that's why they clobbered him. Seems like what really happened is that he had the job of relaying the stolen signs!

In Giants news, infielder Zack Cozart was cut loose. The Giants still owe him almost $13M. They gave the roster spot to waiver claim Jake Jewell, a 26-year old right-handed pitcher. The Giants took on Cozart and his salary presumably to obtain the #15 pick in the 2019 draft, North Carolina State 2B/SS Will Wilson. The Giants chose Arizona State OF Hunter Bishop with the #10 pick. Two chances are better than one, right?

Also, Jose Alguacil has returned to the organization and will serve as the manager of the Richmond Flying Squirrels (AA, Eastern League). He ran that club back in 2015 before managing the River Cats and then joining the Giants as first-base coach.

--M.C.

42

A few days ago I was astride a granite boulder that rested in the scree along the edge of a Sierra lake. I was craning my neck to examine a small plant through a hand lens--it was a wild orchid, the tiny white flowers spiraling up a short stem that clung to a crack in the rock. The afternoon sun had crisped my forearms umber, and the wind whipped my hat enough so that I needed my chin strap. Down the mountain was a stream strewn with Tiger Lillies in the shady spots, and I soaked my hot, tired flesh in a surging pool eddying out from a small waterfall. The butterflies abounded along meadow verges, iridescent Melissa Blues and stately Lorquin's Admirals, and warblers chased each other among the lodgepoles. A few days before that I was dumping my companions and the beer cooler from the canoe and into the Russian River with an unfortunate maneuver. Fortunately, all was recovered, the summer levels being quite low, and we wrestled our craft back to action and finished the float. There were Fourth of July fireworks from an Oakland Hills vista, a famous play in a small theater in the big City, a Sonoma wine-tasting excursion, a seafood dinner along the Carquinez Strait, and many wonderful long days and late nights with family and friends. In short, it was a hell of a holiday.

And speaking of hell, how the hell did this happen? This 2013 Giants team? Poor performances, sure. Key injuries, of course. But collapse? This is not one of the scenarios I envisioned. At the very worst, I thought this a .500 club. I did not believe this team was capable of playing this poorly. Every baseball team puts up stretches of .350 ball. Sometimes it even lasts a whole season--just ask the Astros. But this sustained run of bad baseball is a shocker. On May 12th, the Giants had just taken three of four from the Braves and were 23-15, in first place in the West by two games. They've gone 19-35 since, including a stretch where they lost 16 of 19. They are now in fourth place, 6-1/2 back, fighting it out with the Padres for the booby prize.

The 2009 Giants won their 42nd game on July 1st (Game 77). The 2010 Giants won their 42nd game on July 5th (Game 82). The 2011 Giants won their 42nd game on June 24th (Game 76). The 2012 Giants won their 42nd game on June 26th (Game 75). The 2013 Giants piled it on in San Diego last night, finally racking up win 42 on July 12th, their 92nd game. That's the kind of math I don't like. In terms of seasonal innings, Games 73-90 constituted their fifth 18-game cluster, and cluster it was. They went 3-15, an unimaginable stretch of bad luck and worse ball-playing. That's 11-7, 10-8, 8-10, 8-10, and the unfathomable 3-15 for the five innings. On a bright note, two wins in Games 91 and 92 gets the sixth frame started off with a nice 2-0 record. If you break it down by month, April was 15-12, May 14-13, June a swooning 10-17, and July a wretched 3-8. If any team could use an All-Star Break, it's San Francisco.

I'm back home, my friends. I'm plugged in again. I'll admit that I took a vacation from the Giants as well--when I go AWOL I go all the way. I did not know about Homer Bailey beating Tim Lincecum and his mates with a no-hitter. I did not know about Zack Wheeler besting Matt Cain and the boys, Matty throwing his shortest start ever, on the heels of getting clobbered by the Dodgers. What's up with Cain? I'm dumbfounded. We watched Tim be just about the lousiest starter in the NL last year, now we get the pleasure of doing it all over again, this time with no. 18. I swear I have not insulted the gods! In fact, I make my regular offerings, just like always. Perhaps more drastic measures are needed. Thanks for holding down the fort in my absence.

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

25 for 16: The Three-headed Late-inning Monster

Most teams are lucky to have a few good pitchers. The 2012 World Series Champions San Francisco Giants had a whole staff full of them. Here are some numbers: 28 IP, 17 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 27 SO. That's closer stuff from three different guys. We all know that sometimes the most important outs in a ballgame are not the three in the 9th inning reserved for "the closer." Sometimes there are big situations in the 7th or 8th inning that are just as important and are often more important than those final three outs. The Giants had three guys who could close on most teams, and those three delivered a string of big outs in the post-season.

Santiago Casilla faced 32 batters in his 11 appearances and struck out eight of them. He gave up only eight hits, the rest were ground outs (8) and fly outs (6). He hit one batter and walked another. He pitched in all five LDS games, giving up the only runs he allowed in the post-season (2) in the 9th inning of the Game One loss. He finished Game Four, getting the final three outs in the 9th after taking over for Tim Lincecum. He also came in to get the last out of the 8th (whiffing Matt Holliday) after Barry Zito's brilliant 7-2/3 in Game Five of the LCS. In Game Two of the World Series, Casilla got the ball after Madison Bumgarner put up seven zeroes and got a quick 1-2-3 with 10 pitches. It was only a 1-0 lead for the Giants at that point, so you have to figure that was a "high leverage" situation. The power-pitching righty got the "W" in the final game by getting the last out in the bottom of the 9th.

Jeremy Affeldt faced 40 batters in his 10 appearances and struck out ten of them. He gave up a mere five hits and did not allow a single run. He pitched the 6th and the 7th in relief of Ryan Vogelsong in the pivotal marathon Game Three of the LDS, pitched in back-to-back games twice in the LCS (Games One/Two and Six/Seven), and struck out four in his crucial 1-2/3 in Game Four of the Series. It was a dominating performance by the big lefty. Remember all the whining about how much the Giants "wasted" on relief pitching that could have been spent signing Carlos Beltran? A guy like Affeldt, who can hammer 94 mph fastballs in on the hands to all hitters and them freeze them with unhittable curveballs is not a "fungible" commodity. The Giants recognized his skill set, paid him handsomely for it, and used it to great effect to win another title.

Sergio Romo faced 37 batters in his 10 appearances and struck out nine of them. Four hits, one walk, and one run were the only damage. He got the final out in Games Two, Three, and Five of the LDS, Games Two, Five, Six, and Seven of the LCS, and Games Two, Three, and Four of the World Series. That's a win and four saves if you are keeping track. The skinny right-hander with the magic pitch and the flashy style put himself squarely on the national radar after an exceptional post-season run. How do you top Brian Wilson? Be Sergio Romo, that's how. His finest performance was of course the three strikeouts to close out Game Four. Those 15 pitches were all about movement and location and the hapless Tigers hitters had no chance. Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera could only watch helplessly as the final strike scooted past him right down the middle in his "hit me" zone. That was as masterful a display of guile as you will see in a big game. Buster Posey noted afterwards that Romo "shook to the fastball," intending to fool the big slugger who was expecting the slider low and away, just like everyone else in America. His final Series line was nine up, nine down, the final nine outs of the final three games. You can't do much better than that!

The 2012 Giants are the World Series Champions. That makes the 2010 championship a hell of a lot less "flukey," wouldn't you say? I'm not sure the national media will ever appreciate what the Giants have done, but I think 8-1 in the Series and 22-9 overall in the playoffs is pretty damn impressive, as well as the list of victims: Atlanta, Philadelphia, Texas, Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Detroit.

Enjoy this off-season, my friends!

--M.C.

Guys Who Were Giants Sign

With other teams. See this. Oh, and this guy apparently signed with St. Louis.

Name dropping

I've been wondering why there has been so little interest in the big-name free agents this off-season. After all, there are some seriously big names in the pool. Albert Pujols is arguably the greatest right-handed hitter of all time, and he's hardly managed a sniff. Prince Fielder, all of 27, is every bit as good as fellow first basemen Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira and Adrián González, all who have signed mega-deals in the last few years. I suppose that might just be the problem. The big spenders have already got their 3-position locked up. The Phils have Howard until at least 2016 ($25M/yr), same for the Yanks and Teixeira ($22.5M/yr), and the Sawx have González until 2018 ($21.5M/yr). The three clubs who toss around the most money are not interested. I imagine Pujols will wind up back in St. Louis. The Dodgers were supposedly interested in Fielder, but that organization is in a mess and it seems unlikely they can think about another long-term deal until the ownership question is settled. Jimmy Rollins and José Reyes are some other big names who can't seem to generate excitement. I wonder if the poor market will continue. The new CBA is in place, and the Winter Meetings are just around the corner, so perhaps things will pick up. If not, a guy like Carlos Beltrán could be had for much less (money and years) than most expected at the end of the season. That might make the Giants pursue him a little more seriously. I get the feeling--and I certainly hope--that they are lukewarm on him until the Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum negotiations are completed. The Freak may not bother and simply let the arbitration process decide things, but I expect Cain and the Giants will work something out. In the meantime, I'm content to watch. And I'm happy that we know we will have five more years of uninterrupted baseball.

--M.C.

On Whether the Giants Can Afford Carlos Beltran

OK, that is probably not the best title for this post. “Afford” implies that I have some knowledge of the Giants finances, and I don’t. Perhaps a better title would be “On Whether the Giants Are Likely to be Able to Produce a Successful Bid for Free Agent Carlos Beltran. The answer to that question is, in my view, “Yes.”

The conventional wisdom says the Carlos Beltran will demand (and receive) a fiver year contract. The conventional wisdom also asserts that the Giants will be able to be outbid by other teams that either have deeper financial resources or that have fewer sunk costs, meaning existing salary commitments. But let's examine how valuable Carlos Beltran would be and who would be the likely bidders for him.

I have observed is that there are two levels of superstars. The upper level tends to get a lot of money. Their contracts, even in today’s recession-limited market, are stratospheric (and remember, from the Giants’ attendance figures in 2011, their market is decidedly not recession-limited). But then you see a drop off, and superstar free agents who are not the very cream of a given year’s crop tend not to have the high profile interest that the tippy-top guys get. Carlos Beltran is not the premier free agent on the market. That would be Albert Pujols, followed closely by Prince Fielder. Elias Sports Bureau has a ranking system of the most desirable free agents and you can find a copy of it on MLB Trade Rumors, here. Carlos Beltran ranks #7. MLB Trade Rumors also has a list of the top 50 free agents, here, and which team they guess each one is likely to sign with. With the addition of Yu Darvish, Carlos Beltran is addressed in the #9 position. There are several free agents that are pitchers, including starters CJ Wilson, Yu Darvish, Edwin Jackson, Roy Oswalt, Mark Buehrle and relievers Heath Bell, Jonathan Papelbon (he wouldn’t really pull a Damon, would he?), and Ryan Madson.

In any year, the tippy-top only goes so deep. There are always a couple of high profile signings, and then a lot that make you wonder if the high profile guys are really worth their money compared to the rest. I just don't think Carlos Beltran will be one of the top top guys. Age is one reason. Here are some pretty good hitters that may be higher on wish lists than Carlos Beltran: Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Aramis Ramirez. Carlos Beltran will be 35 when the 2012 season starts. Albert Pujols will be 32; Fielder, 27; Reyes, 28; and Rollins and Ramirez, 33. So I don't think five years is a given for Carlos, considering that their are a number of other, younger players out there to soak up the highest offers.

The Yankees need pitching, pitching and more pitching. They have enough hitting. The Red Sox need to replace Big Papi, and need to replace or re-sign Papelbon, although they may be interested in Carlos, they have other priorities. The Phillies need to replace or re-sign Madson and Rollins, the Mets already did Beltran, and the Cardinals need to re-sign the big A at all costs, and then shop for relief, although it held up well enough in the playoffs. Texas needs to re-sign or replace Wilson. The Cubs with their new GM might be a likely bidder, so might Washington. There is always a surprise team, of course, but the Giants have the advantage of being a team that is known to contend, and that carries weight with players who are looking to get into the post-season. Always remember, that Brian Sabean, for all the ire that he has engendered in the lunatic fringes, somehow managed to wind up with a stable of pitching that is unmatched and few needs except to upgrade the offense.

So I believe the Giants are in the driver's seat to sign Carlos if they want to, and I also think it will not take five years nor Albert Pujols money to do so. What is more, I think they should. Carlos left/right, Nate center/right, Brandon Belt left/first, and Andres as the fourth outfielder at center works for me.

Oh. Apparently, the Giants may be open to trading Jonathan Sanchez.

On What the Giants Need for 2012

What seems to make sense to me, rather than flying off the handle about what the Giants may or may not do, is to first look at what the Giants need. In that way, we can have a firm basis from which to fly off the handle. So let me start this conversation by saying that the Giants do not need anything in the way of fielders. We hear a lot about how the Giants need a center fielder or a shortstop. That is, in both cases, demonstrably untrue. We have a very talented young shortstop in Brandon Crawford, and several players that can play center field, Cody Ross, Nathan Schierholtz, and Andres Torres, two of whom are arbitration-eligible, and one of whom is a free agent. The reason that this is untrue is because a "shortstop" and a "center fielder" are descriptions of defensive positions. The Giants have adequate players at every defensive position. What the Giants need to upgrade is their offensive positions, which is why I choose to look at the types players that are necessary to compliment the offense, which, as has often been chronicled, was sorely lacking in 2011.

Mostly, the Giants lack an adequate lead-off batter, and lack the big bat that puts fear into opponents' hearts. As much as I relished the days when Barry Bonds would make a nation hold their collective breath during his at bats, I believe that what the Giants most lack is a lead-off batter. It would indeed be nice to have another powerful bat in the line-up. Pablo Sandoval may be a fearsome bat sometimes, and Buster Posey may become one, but neither are quite the kind of batter that opponents really shape their game around. The Giants have no one like an Albert Pujols or a Prince Fielder - guys that can absolutely change a game with one swing of the bat. And therein lies the argument for re-signing Carlos Beltran.

But with Posey, and Sandoval, and a hopefully rejuvenated Aubrey Huff, and some real contributions from Brandon Belt, I believe that the bigger need is a player to bat in the lead-off position that has some potential to get on base a lot. I'm not sure what the on base percentage from the lead-off spot was for the 2011 Giants, but I know that Rowand was less than .300, and Torres was only .312. That's not good enough. It would be great to have someone get on base a fair amount of time. Jose Reyes seems to do this fairly well, with a .341 lifetime obp and a .384 obp for 2011. Jimmy Rollins also has the perception of being valuable in this regard. His obp is not quite as good, .329 lifetime and .338 for 2011. Let's consider those numbers for a moment. In 600 at bats, a healthy Andres Torres would be expected to get on base 187 times in a season and Jose Reyes would get on base between 204 and 230 times. Mr. Rollins would be expected to get on base between 197 and 203 times. So, averaging the two and averaging their lifetime and 2011 totals, 208 times reaching base. That is 21 times more than Andres Torres, or once more every 7.7 games. Is that enough to make a difference? It is at this point where I wish I had enough access to existing baseball statistics and statistical accumen to be able to figure if it indeed would be a meaningful difference or not. It sure doesn't sound like much.

Which brings us back around to the main question. Based on your perception or on a numerical analysis, what do the Giants most need, a fearsome bat, or a dependable lead-off batter?

Cain and Beltran lead the way

Carlos Beltran finally delivered the kind of game The Brian Trust was hoping for when they pulled off the trade at the end of July. Three hits from the right side and one from the left, he drove in three of the team's first four runs, hitting a two-out, two-run homer in the 3rd to give the Giants the lead and knocking home Matt Cain (who had gritted out a leadoff infield hit) with a one-out single in the 5th to seal the deal. He had a workout in right field as well, making five putouts, a couple of throws, and chasing down three extra-base hits. Ryan Roberts hit a drive to right-center in the 5th that just eluded him for a triple. It would have been a damn fine play if he'd managed to close the hands-breadth gap. We've seen Nate Schierholtz catch that very same ball, but we all know Olympic Nate is a magnificent fielder. Beltran made his reputation in center field, and still has some of those moves at age 34, but no one can cover the vast greensward of the foul line to Triples Alley like Schierholtz. Nonetheless, the newcomer had a great night. I like watching him hit, he has such a relaxed stance, great balance, and that smooth, compact swing. He runs with a languid, effortless grace that almost looks like he's not trying very hard. Some guys have a gift for making it look easy. I hope he stays healthy and keeps it up--the Giants need everyone to deliver their best from here on out. Cody Ross put the icing on the cake with a big two-run homer after a Cain walk in the 7th. Last season the Giants hit 162 homers in 162 games. A late-season power surge would be nice.

Matt Cain had a little trouble in the 1st after an infield hit and it took 29 pitches to keep the pesky Diamondbacks from scoring more than just one run. After that he racked up some quick innings and managed to give the team eight strong. He walked four guys which tied his season high. Cain had only walked nine batters in all of August and has 54 for the season (2.3 BB/9, his career best). He's only given up one home run in the second half of the season and a mere eight overall (0.4 HR/9 is also a career best). His average Game Score (last night was a 63) is 59, also a career best. FanGraphs credits him with 5.1 WAR, the best of all the Giants pitchers and, you guessed it, a career high. He's 5th in the NL behind Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels. It has been an outstanding season for no. 18, let's hope he keeps it going for the final push.

Big Time Timmy Jim goes today. Giants, realistically, need a sweep. Gaining only one game wouldn't be bad, but gaining three would be a hell of a lot better. This is it! The time is now! GO GIANTS!

--M.C.