A few days ago I was astride a granite boulder that rested in the scree along the edge of a Sierra lake. I was craning my neck to examine a small plant through a hand lens--it was a wild orchid, the tiny white flowers spiraling up a short stem that clung to a crack in the rock. The afternoon sun had crisped my forearms umber, and the wind whipped my hat enough so that I needed my chin strap. Down the mountain was a stream strewn with Tiger Lillies in the shady spots, and I soaked my hot, tired flesh in a surging pool eddying out from a small waterfall. The butterflies abounded along meadow verges, iridescent Melissa Blues and stately Lorquin's Admirals, and warblers chased each other among the lodgepoles. A few days before that I was dumping my companions and the beer cooler from the canoe and into the Russian River with an unfortunate maneuver. Fortunately, all was recovered, the summer levels being quite low, and we wrestled our craft back to action and finished the float. There were Fourth of July fireworks from an Oakland Hills vista, a famous play in a small theater in the big City, a Sonoma wine-tasting excursion, a seafood dinner along the Carquinez Strait, and many wonderful long days and late nights with family and friends. In short, it was a hell of a holiday.
And speaking of hell, how the hell did this happen? This 2013 Giants team? Poor performances, sure. Key injuries, of course. But collapse? This is not one of the scenarios I envisioned. At the very worst, I thought this a .500 club. I did not believe this team was capable of playing this poorly. Every baseball team puts up stretches of .350 ball. Sometimes it even lasts a whole season--just ask the Astros. But this sustained run of bad baseball is a shocker. On May 12th, the Giants had just taken three of four from the Braves and were 23-15, in first place in the West by two games. They've gone 19-35 since, including a stretch where they lost 16 of 19. They are now in fourth place, 6-1/2 back, fighting it out with the Padres for the booby prize.
The 2009 Giants won their 42nd game on July 1st (Game 77). The 2010 Giants won their 42nd game on July 5th (Game 82). The 2011 Giants won their 42nd game on June 24th (Game 76). The 2012 Giants won their 42nd game on June 26th (Game 75). The 2013 Giants piled it on in San Diego last night, finally racking up win 42 on July 12th, their 92nd game. That's the kind of math I don't like. In terms of seasonal innings, Games 73-90 constituted their fifth 18-game cluster, and cluster it was. They went 3-15, an unimaginable stretch of bad luck and worse ball-playing. That's 11-7, 10-8, 8-10, 8-10, and the unfathomable 3-15 for the five innings. On a bright note, two wins in Games 91 and 92 gets the sixth frame started off with a nice 2-0 record. If you break it down by month, April was 15-12, May 14-13, June a swooning 10-17, and July a wretched 3-8. If any team could use an All-Star Break, it's San Francisco.
I'm back home, my friends. I'm plugged in again. I'll admit that I took a vacation from the Giants as well--when I go AWOL I go all the way. I did not know about Homer Bailey beating Tim Lincecum and his mates with a no-hitter. I did not know about Zack Wheeler besting Matt Cain and the boys, Matty throwing his shortest start ever, on the heels of getting clobbered by the Dodgers. What's up with Cain? I'm dumbfounded. We watched Tim be just about the lousiest starter in the NL last year, now we get the pleasure of doing it all over again, this time with no. 18. I swear I have not insulted the gods! In fact, I make my regular offerings, just like always. Perhaps more drastic measures are needed. Thanks for holding down the fort in my absence.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
Showing posts with label 2009. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2009. Show all posts
Saturday, July 13, 2013
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Random Thoughts on 38-39
On May 24, 2009, the Giants lost to the Seattle Mariners and fell to 20-23. After that they won four in a row and were never worse than .500 the rest of the way and finished 88-74. In 2008, the Giants lost their first game and were below .500 for the entire season. Since the advent of division play in 1969 (44 seasons not including this one) the Giants have had 19 below-.500 teams. The longest stretch of above-.500 seasons was 14, from 1958, the inaugural year in San Francisco (the 1957 NY Giants were a sub.500 team), to 1971, when they won the Western Division. The next longest was from 1997-2004 (8 seasons). The longest stretch of sub-.500 teams was four seasons, from 1974-1977 and again from 2005-2008. The best player on the 2005 Giants was Noah Lowry, the team's number one pick (#30 overall) in the 2001 draft. They drafted Matt Cain number one (#25 overall) the very next year. The Giants have also had two three-year sub-.500 stretches: 1983-1985 and 1994-1996. Throw in 1972, 1979, 1980, 1991, and 1992 and that's 19. Of course that means there's been 25 winning seasons since 1969 (and 36 since 1958).
The Giants are 3-1/2 games from first place and 3-1/2 games from last place. The defending champs are fighting it out with the most expensive team in baseball history for the bottom of the division. Raise your hand if you saw that coming.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
The Giants are 3-1/2 games from first place and 3-1/2 games from last place. The defending champs are fighting it out with the most expensive team in baseball history for the bottom of the division. Raise your hand if you saw that coming.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
Sunday, June 2, 2013
6 4 2 2 0 5
Whew. I was thinking if the Giants lost today, my headline would be "Woe," as in "what a woeful weekend." Or perhaps "Whoa," like "whoa, man, what the hell's happening with our team?" But I came home this afternoon and checked the score and it was "whew, they finally won." How about that Chad Gaudin and his lovely line? That's the headline, man, a quality start. Keep them damn runners off base and them damn runs off the scoreboard! Who knew the 2013 Giants would find it so hard to string together quality starts? Since the 2009 club this franchise has pounded out weeks and months of quality innings and solid pitching performances. It's been a struggle this season, though. What's up with that? There's too much talent there, I can't believe it won't turn around. Big effort by Gaudin the 12th Man to plug the hole and lead the way to victory.
Travel day tomorrow, then they get another chance against the Blue Jays on Tuesday in San Francisco with Tim Lincecum on the mound. Giants only play nine home games in June. Time to improve that road record!
--M.C.
Travel day tomorrow, then they get another chance against the Blue Jays on Tuesday in San Francisco with Tim Lincecum on the mound. Giants only play nine home games in June. Time to improve that road record!
--M.C.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Survival!
The Giants found a way to win tonight. They worked some road magic and kept the Reds champagne on ice. I am still not sure what happened, but Scott Rolen couldn't cleanly handle a ground ball from Joaquin Arias and Buster Posey crossed the plate with the go-ahead run in the 10th and the LDS heads to Game Four. It was a crazy ending to an agonizing game. Once again Cincinnati's starter overwhelmed the Giants lineup, this time Homer Bailey didn't give up a hit until the 6th (Marco Scutaro) and struck out ten in his seven innings. Sean Marshall and Aroldis Chapman mowed down the next six with three strikeouts, and even losing pitcher Jonathan Broxton struck out the side! It was an impressive display of offensive futility by the good guys, but it somehow worked out. Ryan Vogelsong was headed for a meltdown in the 1st but got a little help from Brandon Phillips who tried to take third after a stealing second on a ball that got away from Buster. He was thrown out and it turned out to be a big play. Two hits, a walk, and a run later and the Reds had 1-0 lead. That was it, though, as Vogie settled down and put up four zeroes, giving him the best start so far in the series for the Giants. They tied it up without a hit in the 3rd when Gregor Blanco was hit by a pitch to open the inning. He scored after a walk to Brandon Crawford, a sacrifice bunt by Vogie, and a sacrifice fly by Angel Pagan. It went to extras 1-1 mostly due to some fine bullpen work. Jeremy Affeldt threw an impressive 6th and 7th, Santiago Casilla got three outs in the 8th while scaring the crap out of us, and Sergio Romo got three harmless fly balls in the 9th to preserve the tie. It was a game more reminiscent of the 2009-2011 torture teams and not the run-scoring crew that blew away the rest of the West in 2012.
But the 10th! Craziness was everywhere. Buster and Hunter Pence opened the inning with singles, but that's not the whole story. Pence tweaked his calf on a swing and limped around for a while before getting back in the box. We were told later it was just a cramp, but at the time it looked like he might have to come out. The Giants had already used everyone except Hector Sanchez. Boch pinch-hit with Aubrey Huff in the 6th in Vogie's spot, used righties Xavier Nady and Ryan Theriot against the lefty Marshall (that's when Arias entered the game as well), so the only bat left was the backup catcher. Pence then singled on a ball I thought was a double play off the bat. He had tried to bunt earlier but looked bad so perhaps Bochy said "ah hell, swing away." It paid off, but he was obviously gimpy going down the line and had little chance of scoring on anything but a home run. Brandon Belt was not asked to sacrifice, a little surprising given the situation, and unfortunately whiffed. Nady followed with another whiff, and it looked like the decision not to bunt would fuel second-guessing for an entire off-season. In the post-game interview, Boch said he had not asked Belt to bunt all year, liked the lefty matchup against Broxton, and didn't like the lack of speed on the bases. I don't usually quibble with the manager's decisions these days, he's proved to me over the years that he's smart and knows his guys. Hey, it all worked out, so no grumbling allowed. Reds catcher Ryan Hanigan let a ball get past him and the runners moved up 90 feet, then Arias hit a chopper to third that Rolen could get on the first grab and it was enough for him to beat it out and bring in the run. Sergio Romo was the next batter. Dusty Baker elected not to walk Arias after the passed ball and force Boch to use his last hitter. Romo struck out comically--he looks like a bearded Little Leaguer when he holds a bat--but that was another great move that paid off. Sergio had it going on in the bottom of the 10th and retired the final three easily to nail down the win.
The Giants got three hits. They struck out 16 times. Their starter threw 30 pitches in the 1st inning and immediately put the team behind. They were 0-5 with runners in scoring position. They used Xavier Nady in left field.
And they won the game.
The Giants live to fight on. Another game. This time I'll miss it. The 1:00 p.m. start time (PDT) stinks--I'll be working and out in the field. I might catch the tail end on my way home. Here's hoping they keep finding a way to win.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
But the 10th! Craziness was everywhere. Buster and Hunter Pence opened the inning with singles, but that's not the whole story. Pence tweaked his calf on a swing and limped around for a while before getting back in the box. We were told later it was just a cramp, but at the time it looked like he might have to come out. The Giants had already used everyone except Hector Sanchez. Boch pinch-hit with Aubrey Huff in the 6th in Vogie's spot, used righties Xavier Nady and Ryan Theriot against the lefty Marshall (that's when Arias entered the game as well), so the only bat left was the backup catcher. Pence then singled on a ball I thought was a double play off the bat. He had tried to bunt earlier but looked bad so perhaps Bochy said "ah hell, swing away." It paid off, but he was obviously gimpy going down the line and had little chance of scoring on anything but a home run. Brandon Belt was not asked to sacrifice, a little surprising given the situation, and unfortunately whiffed. Nady followed with another whiff, and it looked like the decision not to bunt would fuel second-guessing for an entire off-season. In the post-game interview, Boch said he had not asked Belt to bunt all year, liked the lefty matchup against Broxton, and didn't like the lack of speed on the bases. I don't usually quibble with the manager's decisions these days, he's proved to me over the years that he's smart and knows his guys. Hey, it all worked out, so no grumbling allowed. Reds catcher Ryan Hanigan let a ball get past him and the runners moved up 90 feet, then Arias hit a chopper to third that Rolen could get on the first grab and it was enough for him to beat it out and bring in the run. Sergio Romo was the next batter. Dusty Baker elected not to walk Arias after the passed ball and force Boch to use his last hitter. Romo struck out comically--he looks like a bearded Little Leaguer when he holds a bat--but that was another great move that paid off. Sergio had it going on in the bottom of the 10th and retired the final three easily to nail down the win.
The Giants got three hits. They struck out 16 times. Their starter threw 30 pitches in the 1st inning and immediately put the team behind. They were 0-5 with runners in scoring position. They used Xavier Nady in left field.
And they won the game.
The Giants live to fight on. Another game. This time I'll miss it. The 1:00 p.m. start time (PDT) stinks--I'll be working and out in the field. I might catch the tail end on my way home. Here's hoping they keep finding a way to win.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
It's all about the pitching
Baseball-Reference measures pitching using ERA+, which compares the league average ERA to a team or individual ERA. Thus, an ERA+ of 120 roughly means that the league is 20% worse (gives up 20% more earned runs per nine innings) than the pitcher or staff. FanGraphs uses ERA-, which flips the fraction over and compares an individual or team ERA to the league average. Thus, an ERA- of 80 would indicate a pitcher or staff that is 20% better (allows 20% fewer earned runs per nine) than the league. In both cases, a score of 100 would indicate unity, or league average. Both stats claim to have a park factor in the final result that adjusts for, say, playing in Fenway vs. Petco. Both are handy thumbnails for evaluating pitchers and pitching staffs.
I made a graph of the Giants team ERA+ and ERA- for the seasons 2009-2012. I treated the interim numbers for 2012 the same as the full-season numbers, just to get a quick snapshot of how the current guys compare. Madison Bumgarner actually made his debut in 2009, throwing ten innings over four games (one start). Tim Lincecum was the star of that squad, and both Matt Cain and Barry Zito had 33 starts apiece. Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, and Brad Penny were also on that staff. In 2010, The Bumbino had 18 starts and supplanted Barry-Z on the post-season roster. Santiago Casilla, Guillermo Mota, and Javier Lopez joined the fun. Last year Ryan Vogelsong emerged and Jonathan Sanchez pitched his last game as a Giant. Take a look:
As a team, the Giants ERA+ for 2009-20012 goes 120, 117, 110, and 97. That's 1st, 1st, 3rd, and 10th in the NL. Their ERA- goes 86, 85, 86, and 93, good for 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 5th. I don't know why B-R rates the Giants so poorly compared to FanGraphs, but I suspect it has to do with the mysterious "park factors." Regardless, it is clear the staff is not as elite as it once was. We all know the culprit, of course, but Tim Lincecum gets some help from his bullpen, too. The loss of both Willie and WillyMo certainly hurt. The Giants are blessed with excellent starters and a talented relief corps. But team-wide they are much more prone to giving up runs than in the previous three seasons. Another way to look at this is to just take raw "runs allowed" numbers and compare them to the league average "runs allowed." The RA/lgRA ratio should be 1.00 for a "league average" team, eh?
I made a graph of the Giants team ERA+ and ERA- for the seasons 2009-2012. I treated the interim numbers for 2012 the same as the full-season numbers, just to get a quick snapshot of how the current guys compare. Madison Bumgarner actually made his debut in 2009, throwing ten innings over four games (one start). Tim Lincecum was the star of that squad, and both Matt Cain and Barry Zito had 33 starts apiece. Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, and Brad Penny were also on that staff. In 2010, The Bumbino had 18 starts and supplanted Barry-Z on the post-season roster. Santiago Casilla, Guillermo Mota, and Javier Lopez joined the fun. Last year Ryan Vogelsong emerged and Jonathan Sanchez pitched his last game as a Giant. Take a look:
As a team, the Giants ERA+ for 2009-20012 goes 120, 117, 110, and 97. That's 1st, 1st, 3rd, and 10th in the NL. Their ERA- goes 86, 85, 86, and 93, good for 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 5th. I don't know why B-R rates the Giants so poorly compared to FanGraphs, but I suspect it has to do with the mysterious "park factors." Regardless, it is clear the staff is not as elite as it once was. We all know the culprit, of course, but Tim Lincecum gets some help from his bullpen, too. The loss of both Willie and WillyMo certainly hurt. The Giants are blessed with excellent starters and a talented relief corps. But team-wide they are much more prone to giving up runs than in the previous three seasons. Another way to look at this is to just take raw "runs allowed" numbers and compare them to the league average "runs allowed." The RA/lgRA ratio should be 1.00 for a "league average" team, eh?
2009: 611 RA, NL average 727; RA/lgRA 0.84
2010: 583 RA, NL average 705; RA/lgRA 0.83
2011: 578 RA, NL average 673; RA/lgRA 0.86
2012: 346 RA, NL average 368; RA/lgRA 0.94
No surprises, really. We know the staff is giving up more runs this year. The question is, will this trend toward average-ness continue? And will that hurt the team's chances? If the answer to the second question is "yes" (and I think it is) then we have to hope the answer to the first question is "no" (and I think it is). The Giants will find a fresh arm or two for the 'pen, and the laggards and slackers will pick it up. This I believe. Random events (injuries, for example) can derail the best-laid plans, so we'll just ignore them, OK?
The Second Half is upon us! I feared the Baseball Gods would punish Giants fans for stuffing the ASG ballot box, instead they blessed us for it. Let us hope they continue to bless the rest of the season. Perform your ablutions and make your sacrifices, my friends, the dark forces must be propitiated!
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
At the Break
In 2009, the Giants were 49-39 (.557) at the All-Star Break, but slumped a bit in the second half (39-35, .527) to finish in 3rd place, seven out, with an 88-74 record (.543). In 2010, they were two games worse at 47-41 (.534), but turned on the jets after that (45-29, .608) on the way to an NL West title (92-70, .568). They went 11-4 (.714) in the post-season to grab the crown. Last year there were 92 games before the Break, and the Giants racked up 52 wins against only 40 losses (.565). Unfortunately they stumbled badly the rest of the way (34-36, .486) and finished in second place, eight games out (86-76, .531). At 46-40 so far this season, they are tied with the Mets and the Cardinals for the sixth-best record in the NL. The Nationals, Pirates, Reds, Braves, and Dodgers are better, and the latter two by a mere half game. In the AL, only the Yankees, Rangers, Angels, and White Sox are playing above the Giants .535 pace. You have to think that a cumulative regular-season record of 312-260 (.545) since that breakout year in 2009 is pretty damn good, and ought to be the envy of many franchises. The club has not had a run like this since those 1997-2004 teams that averaged 92 wins per year and made four playoff appearances and won a pennant. Overall, including a 12-16 post-season record, they played .567 ball, which edges out the current club's .550 overall percentage.
Historical perspective is good in baseball. You have to take the long view in this game, because daily and weekly results can drive you mad. The Giants rode a streak of 36 scoreless innings to the top of the division only to blow it all with a wretched 2-7 stretch immediately after that. A 17-11 June with only 96 runs allowed loses a little luster when the team gives up 48 in the the first week of July. So let's get back to the long view. If they are indeed a .550 team, then we should expect 42 more wins which would only net them 88 overall. It might be enough to win the West, but it is not exactly promising. If they can play .600 ball the rest of the way, that would mean 46 more wins and 92 overall. I like that. 92-70 worked out well for San Francisco in 2010, and it would likely be enough to grab a playoff spot in 2012. Either way it doesn't look like the current .535 is going to cut it. Even if you think the Dodgers are pretenders and the Diamondbacks won't right the ship in time, the Giants will still have to separate themselves from the pack, and the only way to do that is to win lots more games. Ninety wins is usually a good target, that's 44 more, or a .579 pace the rest of the way. There are 17 games left in July, 29 in August, 27 in September, and three in October. Of the remaining 76 games, 39 are at home. The Giants are 26-16 (.619) at AT&T Park and 20-24 (.455) on the road. Those 37 away games loom large, especially since they finish the season with three in San Diego and three in LA. Let's shoot for 20-17 (.541) and 24-15 (.615) at the very least, shall we?
No matter how you slice it, it is going to be a close call, unless of course Tim Lincecum suddenly reverts back to The Franchise and runs out a dozen killer starts. I think he will find himself, but it won't be like flipping a switch. When you are in a deep hole you don't get out in one leap. It takes a lot of scrabbling first. So the rest of the team will have to do as well as they are already doing, and some other guys are going to have to improve. I pick Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez, the highly-paid lefty specialists who are pitching like generic relievers so far. Gregor Blanco and Angel Pagan could stand to get their collective mojo back, and a bench guy like Nate Schierholtz could step it up, too. The Giants are last in the NL in pinch-hits with 15, for example. They need someone who can come in late and contribute with the stick. And the recurring power shortage (51 HR, tied with LA for last in the league, and 215 XBH, next-to-last with LA at 207) needs to be addressed. Perhaps the All-Star third baseman can get his big bat going again. With Freddy Sanchez out for the year, Ryan Theriot becomes hugely important. I really wish Bochy would not bat him second as his .632 OPS will not cut it there. That's too many PAs for a weak bat, I don't care how good he is at the hit-and-run or "moving the runner over" or any other dink-ball bullshit. Melky Cabrera can do everything The Riot can do and do it a hell of a lot better, so I say move M.C. to that spot and everyone else up one more notch. How about Buster Posey or Pablo Sandoval guaranteed an at-bat in the first inning of every game? Doesn't that sound good? Get the best hitters up sooner and more often and the team will score more. But I think that's a vain hope. Ol' Boch does a hell of a job with the pitching staff and with player attitude and morale, the two things a manager has to do properly. We are lucky to have him. But lineup construction is a weak point (how about Brandon Belt, .358 OBP, hitting second?), and even though the improvement may be marginal, this team needs every run they can squeeze out.
The 2012 Giants are in a good spot. They can legitimately call themselves contenders. They've managed to survive a historic collapse by their most valuable player. As long as the starters remain healthy and productive they will stay in the thick of it. Some shoring up of the bullpen may be inevitable, but I think we should be confident that The Brian Trust can find another arm, as that's their forte. A little lineup help would be good, too, but that's tricky. Mostly, they'll have to rely on the guys they have. Perhaps youngsters like The Brandons and Hector Sanchez will chip in a little more down the stretch. Mostly, though, the team needs Timmy. Even with a wide-open division, with no clearly dominant team, the Giants can't afford to throw away starts. The two other teams in the race have been hurt with key injuries (Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Daniel Hudson, Stephen Drew, Joe Saunders) and have some guys under-performing (Justin Upton, James Loney), and that's been a boon to the Giants. We all know how hard it is to win when your guys are on the DL.
Ever since Atlee Hammaker gave up a grand slam to Fred Lynn in the 1983 All-Star Game, I get the heebee-jeebees when a Giants pitcher gets the ball. I shouldn't, I know, but I do. That was another one of those deeply scarring events. I'm obviously happy for Matt Cain, and he is certainly deserving of the starting honor. Not only that, he's NOT Atlee, and will do just fine against the AL. Need proof? Check this out. And there have been successful Giants All-Star pitchers since then (Jason Schmidt and Brian Wilson come to mind, and Timmy survived his start, if I remember). Mets fans have a beef about R.A. Dickey, to be sure, but they owe Tony LaRussa their wrath, not the Giants. I'm convinced he picked Cain because everyone expected him to pick Dickey, and we know how Tony loves to be contrary. Let's hope the NL wins eh?
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
Historical perspective is good in baseball. You have to take the long view in this game, because daily and weekly results can drive you mad. The Giants rode a streak of 36 scoreless innings to the top of the division only to blow it all with a wretched 2-7 stretch immediately after that. A 17-11 June with only 96 runs allowed loses a little luster when the team gives up 48 in the the first week of July. So let's get back to the long view. If they are indeed a .550 team, then we should expect 42 more wins which would only net them 88 overall. It might be enough to win the West, but it is not exactly promising. If they can play .600 ball the rest of the way, that would mean 46 more wins and 92 overall. I like that. 92-70 worked out well for San Francisco in 2010, and it would likely be enough to grab a playoff spot in 2012. Either way it doesn't look like the current .535 is going to cut it. Even if you think the Dodgers are pretenders and the Diamondbacks won't right the ship in time, the Giants will still have to separate themselves from the pack, and the only way to do that is to win lots more games. Ninety wins is usually a good target, that's 44 more, or a .579 pace the rest of the way. There are 17 games left in July, 29 in August, 27 in September, and three in October. Of the remaining 76 games, 39 are at home. The Giants are 26-16 (.619) at AT&T Park and 20-24 (.455) on the road. Those 37 away games loom large, especially since they finish the season with three in San Diego and three in LA. Let's shoot for 20-17 (.541) and 24-15 (.615) at the very least, shall we?
No matter how you slice it, it is going to be a close call, unless of course Tim Lincecum suddenly reverts back to The Franchise and runs out a dozen killer starts. I think he will find himself, but it won't be like flipping a switch. When you are in a deep hole you don't get out in one leap. It takes a lot of scrabbling first. So the rest of the team will have to do as well as they are already doing, and some other guys are going to have to improve. I pick Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez, the highly-paid lefty specialists who are pitching like generic relievers so far. Gregor Blanco and Angel Pagan could stand to get their collective mojo back, and a bench guy like Nate Schierholtz could step it up, too. The Giants are last in the NL in pinch-hits with 15, for example. They need someone who can come in late and contribute with the stick. And the recurring power shortage (51 HR, tied with LA for last in the league, and 215 XBH, next-to-last with LA at 207) needs to be addressed. Perhaps the All-Star third baseman can get his big bat going again. With Freddy Sanchez out for the year, Ryan Theriot becomes hugely important. I really wish Bochy would not bat him second as his .632 OPS will not cut it there. That's too many PAs for a weak bat, I don't care how good he is at the hit-and-run or "moving the runner over" or any other dink-ball bullshit. Melky Cabrera can do everything The Riot can do and do it a hell of a lot better, so I say move M.C. to that spot and everyone else up one more notch. How about Buster Posey or Pablo Sandoval guaranteed an at-bat in the first inning of every game? Doesn't that sound good? Get the best hitters up sooner and more often and the team will score more. But I think that's a vain hope. Ol' Boch does a hell of a job with the pitching staff and with player attitude and morale, the two things a manager has to do properly. We are lucky to have him. But lineup construction is a weak point (how about Brandon Belt, .358 OBP, hitting second?), and even though the improvement may be marginal, this team needs every run they can squeeze out.
The 2012 Giants are in a good spot. They can legitimately call themselves contenders. They've managed to survive a historic collapse by their most valuable player. As long as the starters remain healthy and productive they will stay in the thick of it. Some shoring up of the bullpen may be inevitable, but I think we should be confident that The Brian Trust can find another arm, as that's their forte. A little lineup help would be good, too, but that's tricky. Mostly, they'll have to rely on the guys they have. Perhaps youngsters like The Brandons and Hector Sanchez will chip in a little more down the stretch. Mostly, though, the team needs Timmy. Even with a wide-open division, with no clearly dominant team, the Giants can't afford to throw away starts. The two other teams in the race have been hurt with key injuries (Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Daniel Hudson, Stephen Drew, Joe Saunders) and have some guys under-performing (Justin Upton, James Loney), and that's been a boon to the Giants. We all know how hard it is to win when your guys are on the DL.
Ever since Atlee Hammaker gave up a grand slam to Fred Lynn in the 1983 All-Star Game, I get the heebee-jeebees when a Giants pitcher gets the ball. I shouldn't, I know, but I do. That was another one of those deeply scarring events. I'm obviously happy for Matt Cain, and he is certainly deserving of the starting honor. Not only that, he's NOT Atlee, and will do just fine against the AL. Need proof? Check this out. And there have been successful Giants All-Star pitchers since then (Jason Schmidt and Brian Wilson come to mind, and Timmy survived his start, if I remember). Mets fans have a beef about R.A. Dickey, to be sure, but they owe Tony LaRussa their wrath, not the Giants. I'm convinced he picked Cain because everyone expected him to pick Dickey, and we know how Tony loves to be contrary. Let's hope the NL wins eh?
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
Friday, June 22, 2012
Tim Time
It's Tim Time in the pennant race. The Giants are getting world-class starts from Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Ryan Vogelsong, and even an occasional boost from Barry Zito. But The Freak has not been the same guy in 2012, and after 14 starts (two of them with Game Scores over 60), people are losing patience. Me, I refuse to panic or believe he's "done." This is one of the greatest players in club history. Name the other Giants pitcher with two Cy Young Awards. What? There isn't one? List all those other SF pitchers with four post-season wins and a World Series ring. What? There aren't any? Gosh, this guy's pretty good. Yeah, he's been stinking it up so far, but shit happens. It's how you respond to shit that makes you what you are, not the fact that shit happens. Tim is an ultra-competitive, brilliant and talented athlete. What makes these guys champions is their confidence in themselves. Their self-belief. Big Time Timmy Jim is still inside that guy with no. 55 on his back. He will be The Franchise again. It may be an ugly and painful journey, but what hero's quest is without hardship? He will find his way back. That I believe. As fans, we owe him a little faith. He led us to the Promised Land! He found the milk and honey after all those years of second-bests, also-rans, and booby prizes! No time to turn our backs on him now. (Not to mention the fact that the team won't win anything without him.) So I'm ready for some Tim Time, how about you?
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Cain's nightmare in Houston
Today's start against the Astros was not just Cain's worst of the season, it was one of the worst of his career**. On August 12, 2006 the Dodgers beat the Giants 6-5 in Chavez LAtrine, and Matt gave up 10 hits and all 6 runs in 4-plus innings. On May 3, 2007 the Phillies beat the Giants 9-7 in San Francisco, and Matt lasted 3-plus, giving up 8 hits and 7 runs. On April 18, 2008 the Cardinals beat the Giants 11-1 at Busch III, and Matt gave up 8 hits and 9 runs in 3-2/3 IP. Todd Wellemeyer was the winning pitcher! On September 22, 2009, the Diamondbacks beat the Giants in Arizona 10-8, and Matt lasted 2-1/3, giving up 8 hits and 7 runs. That's not the complete pantheon of Cain stinkers, but it's close. Not bad in 152 chances, eh?
Cain's 15th start of the 2010 season was one to forget, but his first 14 starts were pretty damn good. In 100 IP only 26 runs were allowed, which is an average of 7.1 innings and 1.85 runs per outing. I know an "average" doesn't mean much--especially without a standard deviation--but it gives us a thumbnail sketch of his season so far. It's also close to what we've all felt intuitively, namely that Matt Cain is Mr. Consistency, and gives the team a boatload of quality starts. According to Fan Graphs, Matt entered today 11th among NL starters in FIP (3.38). ZiPS projects 3.51 for the season, which is still very good (top one-third of ML starters). We can only hope his 16th start is much better.
I'm disappointed, and not just because I watched my favorite Giant perform as poorly as he ever has. No, I'm a Team Man all the way, I wanted the Giants to beat the lowly Astros and come home with their 40th win. Alas, they'll have to do that this weekend against a tough club. The Red Sox have the highest team wOBA in the game (.359) and have scored nearly 400 runs. They give up about a run more per game than the Giants, though, so it should be an interesting match-up. The Sox pounded Ubaldo Jimenez last night (it was his season-worst start as well), only to watch closer Jonathan Papelbon blow the win in the 9th.
Tomorrow's game is also the 72nd of the year, which is the 4th-inning of a 162-game season (18 x 4 = 72, 18 x 9 = 162). The halfway point (game 81) is the Fourth of July, the final game of a four-game set in Colorado. That trip--11 games--is the longest of the season, with four games in Milwaukee and three in Washington right before the All-Star Break (88th game). With the Dodgers coming to town after the Red Sox series, it should be a drama-laden three weeks, and we'll know quite a bit more about our team. Last season the Giants were 49-39 at the Break (.557). Can we do better than 10-7 in the next 17 games?
--M.C.
**Cain's Game Score, 12, was his 2nd-lowest ever (the 11-1 loss in St. Louis was a 10).
Cain's 15th start of the 2010 season was one to forget, but his first 14 starts were pretty damn good. In 100 IP only 26 runs were allowed, which is an average of 7.1 innings and 1.85 runs per outing. I know an "average" doesn't mean much--especially without a standard deviation--but it gives us a thumbnail sketch of his season so far. It's also close to what we've all felt intuitively, namely that Matt Cain is Mr. Consistency, and gives the team a boatload of quality starts. According to Fan Graphs, Matt entered today 11th among NL starters in FIP (3.38). ZiPS projects 3.51 for the season, which is still very good (top one-third of ML starters). We can only hope his 16th start is much better.
I'm disappointed, and not just because I watched my favorite Giant perform as poorly as he ever has. No, I'm a Team Man all the way, I wanted the Giants to beat the lowly Astros and come home with their 40th win. Alas, they'll have to do that this weekend against a tough club. The Red Sox have the highest team wOBA in the game (.359) and have scored nearly 400 runs. They give up about a run more per game than the Giants, though, so it should be an interesting match-up. The Sox pounded Ubaldo Jimenez last night (it was his season-worst start as well), only to watch closer Jonathan Papelbon blow the win in the 9th.
Tomorrow's game is also the 72nd of the year, which is the 4th-inning of a 162-game season (18 x 4 = 72, 18 x 9 = 162). The halfway point (game 81) is the Fourth of July, the final game of a four-game set in Colorado. That trip--11 games--is the longest of the season, with four games in Milwaukee and three in Washington right before the All-Star Break (88th game). With the Dodgers coming to town after the Red Sox series, it should be a drama-laden three weeks, and we'll know quite a bit more about our team. Last season the Giants were 49-39 at the Break (.557). Can we do better than 10-7 in the next 17 games?
--M.C.
**Cain's Game Score, 12, was his 2nd-lowest ever (the 11-1 loss in St. Louis was a 10).
Monday, January 25, 2010
How the West Was Won: 2009
Are you an optimist or pessimist? Dreamer or skeptic? The 2009 Giants drew a line right down the middle of the fanbase with the "glass half-full" folks and "glass half-empty" folks picking sides and lining themselves up for 2010. How can this be? Easy--take a good look at last season. The 3rd-place Giants (88-74, overperforming by 2 games) scored only 657 runs (13th) but allowed only 611 (T1st). They had 18 team shutouts and a fantastic MLB-best 123 ERA+. Unfortunately, their hated arch-rivals in Chavez LAtrine also had great pitching, also allowing only 611 runs (T1st, 116 ERA+) while scoring 780 (4th). That was good enough for a West title (95-67, underforming by 4 games). The 18-28 Rockies fired Clint Hurdle at the end of May and surged into the Wild Card under Jim Tracy, going 21-7 in June and 74-42 overall to finish 92-70 (overperfoming by 2 games). They did it with the bats, of course, their 804 RS was second only to league champs Philadelphia, but their improved pitching (only 715 RA, 7th, 108 ERA+) was the difference. We've seen poor offenses win the West in our look back, but rarely do we see poor offensive squads beat out well-balanced teams. Both LA and Colorado present formidable obstacles to the G-men's chances of winning the West in 2010, as both have a core of young, talented players on both sides of the ball. San Diego (75-87) overperformed its Pythagorean percentage by 8 games--their RS/RA (638/15th, 769/12th) numbers were truly awful, they were lucky not to finish last. Their abysmal 84 ERA+ is hard to believe in their cavernous home yard. Arizona got the last spot (70-92, underperforming by 5 games), scoring 720 runs (8th) and yielding 782 (14th). Their ERA+ of 103 is likely a reflection of their hitting-friendly park.
The Giants finished 7 behind LA and only 4 behind Colorado, and their 88 wins were more than both Atlanta (115 ERA+, 86 wins) and Chicago (117 ERA+, 83 wins). Tim Lincecum nabbed another Cy Young, Matt Cain was an All-Star, and Jonathan Sanchez threw a no-hitter. Even Billion-Dollar Boy Barry Zito was reasonably effective (108 ERA+). Pablo Sandoval burst onto the NL scene with a .943 OPS (142 OPS+), thus proving the organization can produce a hitter. It was a great year, marred only by the front office and their idiotic trades of top prospects Tim Alderson and Scott Barnes for Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko. FSanchez was too hurt to play, and Garko, slumping in orange and black, never got a chance and was non-tendered in the off-season (while broken-down Freddy got a 2-year, $12M deal and won't be suited up for Opening Day). It is hard being a fan of this organization. The pitching is world class and screams for the complementary pieces to round out the club, and the Brain Trust tosses us bones like Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa. One of the top prospects in all of baseball, Buster Posey, got a cuppa-coffee-call-up in September and spent his time on the bench watching the final season of the old, slow, hackmeister catcher he was groomed to replace. Oh, wait, we re-signed that guy and Buster will have to wait some more. If there is one single thing the Giants did this off-season to empty my glass, it's that. Hotshot young'un Madison Bumgarner also made his debut, he's pencilled in as the 2010 5th starter despite being much younger than Posey and having under 300 IP of professional experience. Hey, I'm all for MadBum, but the illogic of that decision makes me question the Brian Trust's competence even more than I already do.
There you have it--How the West Was Won. Next up--How to Win the West: a position-by-position look at your 2010 Giants, followed by an appraisal of our Division rivals. Pitchers and catchers report in mere weeks!
The Giants finished 7 behind LA and only 4 behind Colorado, and their 88 wins were more than both Atlanta (115 ERA+, 86 wins) and Chicago (117 ERA+, 83 wins). Tim Lincecum nabbed another Cy Young, Matt Cain was an All-Star, and Jonathan Sanchez threw a no-hitter. Even Billion-Dollar Boy Barry Zito was reasonably effective (108 ERA+). Pablo Sandoval burst onto the NL scene with a .943 OPS (142 OPS+), thus proving the organization can produce a hitter. It was a great year, marred only by the front office and their idiotic trades of top prospects Tim Alderson and Scott Barnes for Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko. FSanchez was too hurt to play, and Garko, slumping in orange and black, never got a chance and was non-tendered in the off-season (while broken-down Freddy got a 2-year, $12M deal and won't be suited up for Opening Day). It is hard being a fan of this organization. The pitching is world class and screams for the complementary pieces to round out the club, and the Brain Trust tosses us bones like Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa. One of the top prospects in all of baseball, Buster Posey, got a cuppa-coffee-call-up in September and spent his time on the bench watching the final season of the old, slow, hackmeister catcher he was groomed to replace. Oh, wait, we re-signed that guy and Buster will have to wait some more. If there is one single thing the Giants did this off-season to empty my glass, it's that. Hotshot young'un Madison Bumgarner also made his debut, he's pencilled in as the 2010 5th starter despite being much younger than Posey and having under 300 IP of professional experience. Hey, I'm all for MadBum, but the illogic of that decision makes me question the Brian Trust's competence even more than I already do.
There you have it--How the West Was Won. Next up--How to Win the West: a position-by-position look at your 2010 Giants, followed by an appraisal of our Division rivals. Pitchers and catchers report in mere weeks!
Friday, December 25, 2009
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Thanksgiving week
My job has a few perks, one of them I particularly enjoy: a whole week off at Thanksgiving. I thought I'd find a few things to be thankful for and throw them up on the blog so y'all will have some reading material for the holiday.
If you aren't a Baseball-Reference junkie, you should be. I sponsor a page there. Guess which one? B-R has everything. Here's a page for real Giants fans. Here's another. How about the Franchise Encyclopedia? Or the day-by-day game logs for any season? Or playoff game box scores? Transactions? This site has something for every one of you. Go find something cool and report back!
For the sabermetric beast lurking in your soul--and I know it's there, so let it out--nothing beats FanGraphs. Want to see how Pablo Sandoval stacks up with the best using today's trendy new stats? No problem. Want to settle arguments about Tim Lincecum and the Cy Young? Piece o' cake. Want to gape with awe at Barry Bonds' hitting prowess? How about another gusher about Tim? There are lots of ways to view a ball game. It's hard to stay on top of this stuff, I'll admit, but this is 21st-century baseball. There's no end to the data mining we can do.
You can hit "refresh" on this page until your eyes glaze over.
Danger, danger.
Nerd! Nerd!
Road trip!!
A thoughtful piece by a one-time-Giant called "Exploring the Intagibles of Catching." Recommended.
I'll be on the road and un-tethered from the web for the week. Have a Happy Thanksgiving!
If you aren't a Baseball-Reference junkie, you should be. I sponsor a page there. Guess which one? B-R has everything. Here's a page for real Giants fans. Here's another. How about the Franchise Encyclopedia? Or the day-by-day game logs for any season? Or playoff game box scores? Transactions? This site has something for every one of you. Go find something cool and report back!
For the sabermetric beast lurking in your soul--and I know it's there, so let it out--nothing beats FanGraphs. Want to see how Pablo Sandoval stacks up with the best using today's trendy new stats? No problem. Want to settle arguments about Tim Lincecum and the Cy Young? Piece o' cake. Want to gape with awe at Barry Bonds' hitting prowess? How about another gusher about Tim? There are lots of ways to view a ball game. It's hard to stay on top of this stuff, I'll admit, but this is 21st-century baseball. There's no end to the data mining we can do.
You can hit "refresh" on this page until your eyes glaze over.
Danger, danger.
Nerd! Nerd!
Road trip!!
A thoughtful piece by a one-time-Giant called "Exploring the Intagibles of Catching." Recommended.
I'll be on the road and un-tethered from the web for the week. Have a Happy Thanksgiving!
Friday, November 20, 2009
Basking in the glow
At lunch yesterday JCP and I had a lot of fun talking about Tim Lincecum's remarkable season and his 2nd Cy Young in as many years. This morning I'm still basking in the glow. I know Cardinals fans are dismayed, and I expect a number of BBWAA members are surprised, but I believe the best man won the award. All homerism aside, Tim Lincecum was the best pitcher in the league last year and pitched even better this year. They used to say when I was a kid that a challenger had to "knock out the champ" in order to claim the title. Mr. Carpenter and Mr. Wainwright had tremendous seasons and are great ballplayers, but they lost their 15-round decisions by a few points on the judges' cards. I knew the vote would be close--I think we all did, and I must admit I thought Carpenter would win. I figured he'd get the lion's share of 1st place points, and Tim would clean up the 2nd place points. I could certainly see a writer picking either of the other two guys as number one, but I couldn't imagine anyone voting both guys ahead of Tim. (And Javier Vasquez and Dan Haren are both studs and very deserving of votes--it should not have been Tim vs. The Cards, but Tim vs. the best in the league.) In the end, Tim just got too many votes--he was 1, 2, or 3 on every ballot. He made quite an impression on the baseball cognoscenti. As well he should. Giants fans know how dominating this kid is. Leave the stats aside for a second, and think about the feeling you get when you watch him pitch. For me, it's simply awe. I just marvel at his confidence, his fearlessness, and his ability to sit guys down. The guy is great theater--his small frame, his slacker 'do, his outrageous delivery--and you can't take your eyes off him. Giants fans have never seen this kind of talent on the hill. Tim has a long way to go to match the career numbers of guys like Juan Marichal and Gaylord Perry, but in back-to-back seasons he has simply smothered the opposition with pitching brilliance. (Pitching brilliance, I might add, that is totally supported by a panoply of both sabermetric numbers and old-fashioned stats!) When Barry was being Barry, I remember feeling like the earth stopped turning when he was at the plate. Whatever I was doing, wherever I was, I froze and gave my full atttention to that moment. We know what that was like--we will probably never experience a hitter like that again. Tim is the closest thing to getting that feeling back. You feel like magic is going to happen when he has a ball in his hand, much like when Barry was waving that black bat. Congratulations, Tim! I hope the brain trust is smart enough to make you a Giant forever.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Outrage is too mild a word
Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals beat out the Giants Pablo Sandoval for the 2009 Silver Slugger Award for National League third basemen. Managers and coaches vote.
Ryan Zimmerman
.292/.364/.525
.888 OPS
133 OPS+
Pablo Sandoval
.330/.387/.556
.924 OPS
142 OPS+
I'm sure Mr. Zimmerman is a fine fellow and all, rescuing babies from burning buildings and whatnot, but this is the SILVER SLUGGER award. According to the website:
They base their selections on a combination of offensive statistics, including batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage . . .
Hmm. Batting average? Check. On-base percentage? Check. Slugging percentage? Check. I'm sure glad the managers and coaches were paying attention to the criteria for Silver Slugger Award when they filled out their ballots. Oh, wait:
. . . as well as the coaches and managers general impressions of a player's overall offensive value.
This is what we call a fudge factor. As in, "I never got to see Sandoval play, because I'm an East Coast guy, and the Nationals really suck, and the only other guy I know who plays third is David Wright and so, uh, I guess it's Zimmerman." That, my friends, is what passes for analyis in the upper echelons of MLB leadership.
Of course, any excuse to write about the Panda is fun. Here's the latest on his off-season (hat tip to OBM). How can you not love this guy? Here's what he says:
The fans, I love them and want them to know I'll always be the guy who's working hard.
Hah. Keep your damn silver bat, Zimmerman. Let's see you top that!
Ryan Zimmerman
.292/.364/.525
.888 OPS
133 OPS+
Pablo Sandoval
.330/.387/.556
.924 OPS
142 OPS+
I'm sure Mr. Zimmerman is a fine fellow and all, rescuing babies from burning buildings and whatnot, but this is the SILVER SLUGGER award. According to the website:
They base their selections on a combination of offensive statistics, including batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage . . .
Hmm. Batting average? Check. On-base percentage? Check. Slugging percentage? Check. I'm sure glad the managers and coaches were paying attention to the criteria for Silver Slugger Award when they filled out their ballots. Oh, wait:
. . . as well as the coaches and managers general impressions of a player's overall offensive value.
This is what we call a fudge factor. As in, "I never got to see Sandoval play, because I'm an East Coast guy, and the Nationals really suck, and the only other guy I know who plays third is David Wright and so, uh, I guess it's Zimmerman." That, my friends, is what passes for analyis in the upper echelons of MLB leadership.
Of course, any excuse to write about the Panda is fun. Here's the latest on his off-season (hat tip to OBM). How can you not love this guy? Here's what he says:
The fans, I love them and want them to know I'll always be the guy who's working hard.
Hah. Keep your damn silver bat, Zimmerman. Let's see you top that!
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Miracle, part I
I was thinking about 3-1 deficits in the World Series while watching the Phils win last night. I remember the 1968 Series when the Tigers came back--most improbably--against the defending champion Cardinals. I was a bit young to appreciate the significance, but I did know the Cards were the best team (they had beaten my Mom's beloved Sox the previous year) and that they lost. A comeback like that didn't happen again until the 1979 "We are Family" Pirates picked themselves up off the floor and wore down the mighty Orioles. I remember the Series well as I still had a grudge against the Pirates for beating the Giants in the 1971 playoffs. The Cardinals saw their 1985 World Series dream end after being up 3-1 against an underrated Royals team. That Series was best known for the blown call in game six that kept KC's chances alive. Jack Clark had been my favorite Giant through a long stretch of mostly lousy teams and I rooted for him and the Cards in that one. It is 2009, there hasn't been a 3-1 comeback in the Series for over two decades, don't you think we are due? As I said yesteday, I don't like the odds, but the Phils got step one out of the way for their miracle, can they do it two more times? They pounded the crap out of the ball and withstood a furious Yankee rally that chased the imperturbable Cliff Lee out of the game. In the 9th the Yanks had Derek Jeter up with two on and no outs, and he hit into a double play! Lots of guys hit into double plays, but this was Cap'n Derek, Mr. Clutch, the very embodiment of The Bronx Bomber Mystique. Imagine if it had been A-Rod! The matchups so far are Pedro vs. Pettite, and Hamels v. CC, but it wouldn't surprise me if Charlie Manuel did something nutty and used rookie phenom JA Happ at some point. Is a miracle still possible in these dark and cynical times?
Monday, November 2, 2009
Nail, meet coffin
The Phils are done. Barring a miracle, the Yanks will be wearing new rings this week. Cliff Lee can pitch the Series back to NYC with another one of his gems tonight, but that will mean the season is over for Philadelphia's best pitcher. A weekend in New York without your best pitcher and you have to win two games? I don't like those odds. The Yankees just scored 15 runs in two games against Hamels, Blanton, and the bullpen. Pedro Martinez gave a "quality start" in game two, but still lost. The Yanks have a seemingly-endless supply of counter moves for whatever Manuel and the defending champs try to do.
Everybody's talkin' about the Johnny Damon double steal. It was a smart play, and unique. No one was covering third due to the shift on Teixeira, and Damon outran Pedro Feliz (who took the throw at second on the steal). It shouldn't have mattered with two outs, but Lidge plunked Tex and gave A-Rod a chance to hit. I could smell "three-run HR" but the game-winning double was enough. Damon should also get a lot of credit for a great two-out at-bat: down 0-2, working it full, singling on the 9th pitch. The beleaguered Phillies closer was perfect last season. Oh, how things change! The fact that the Phils are the NL champs with Lidge struggling so much all year long is a credit to the rest of their team.
Everybody's talkin' about the Johnny Damon double steal. It was a smart play, and unique. No one was covering third due to the shift on Teixeira, and Damon outran Pedro Feliz (who took the throw at second on the steal). It shouldn't have mattered with two outs, but Lidge plunked Tex and gave A-Rod a chance to hit. I could smell "three-run HR" but the game-winning double was enough. Damon should also get a lot of credit for a great two-out at-bat: down 0-2, working it full, singling on the 9th pitch. The beleaguered Phillies closer was perfect last season. Oh, how things change! The fact that the Phils are the NL champs with Lidge struggling so much all year long is a credit to the rest of their team.
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Trick or Treat
When the Phillies opened their Hallowe'en sacks last night they found a fat, stinking turd instead of candy. The pile had a note from King George stuck to it: Bugger off ya bloody wankers, we're the fecking Yankees. Trailing 3-0 after three, the Bombers put up two in the fourth and three in the fifth to kick Cole Hamels' butt. They went on to score a single run apiece against the next three relief pitchers. New York goes for the kill tonight with their big ace, C.C. Sabathia, on short rest. It's not a great spot for the defending champs as their über-ace, Cliff Lee, goes tomorrow. Let's hope Joe Blanton pitches the game of his life and the big bats produce for Philadelphia.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Who's your daddy?
I love Pedro Martinez. He's one of my favorite baseball characters, and he's had a remarkable career. And what Giants fan doesn't enjoy seeing a guy become a star after he leaves LA? There was a stretch--1997 to 2003--where he was nearly unhittable. I got to see him pitch in Fenway in 1998 in a game against his former team, the Expos (with Felipe Alou managing). Former Giant Darren Lewis was the hitting star!
I thought yesterday's press conference highlights were hilarious. Baseball reporters never seem to get it when a ballplayer is messing with them, it's as if they refuse to believe some dumb jock can poke holes in their questions. I think there is an unwritten script that the ballplayers are supposed to stick with ("I'm just happy to be here" and "I just want to help the team" and etc.) and when they ad lib no one knows how to deal with it. Barry did that all the time and all it ever caused him was more grief. When the Yankee fans were really giving it to Martinez as he walked off the field last night you could see him break into a smile before the cameras cut to commercial. You are not supposed to laugh in the face of defeat in the baseball universe, that's not the manly way to handle it, but Martinez knew that the Yanks had beaten him and the only sensible thing to do was to "tip his cap" to them. He pitched a great game, but Burnett pitched an even better one.
The big moment for me was when Rollins worked a walk off Rivera in the 8th. That was quite an effort against a guy who never walks anyone. Then Victorino poked one into right field and the big guys were coming up with only one out. Alas, Utley hit a double play ball, and was out at first on a verrrrry close play. That was it for the Phils. Give credit to the Yanks, they made the big plays and got the big hits when they needed them. Burnett pitched a gem and got the ball to Mariano for the last six outs--that's a tough formula for any club, even the defending champs. Cole Hamels has yet to show his 2008 form, but he'll get a chance on Saturday at home to right the ship. He'd be the game seven starter if this rotation holds. Will we see C.C. come back on short rest for game four if the Yanks are down 2-1? If the Phils are in a 2-1 hole will they trust their fortunes to journeyman Joe Blanton or rookie J.A. Happ? What a great series so far, eh? Let's hope it keeps up.
I thought yesterday's press conference highlights were hilarious. Baseball reporters never seem to get it when a ballplayer is messing with them, it's as if they refuse to believe some dumb jock can poke holes in their questions. I think there is an unwritten script that the ballplayers are supposed to stick with ("I'm just happy to be here" and "I just want to help the team" and etc.) and when they ad lib no one knows how to deal with it. Barry did that all the time and all it ever caused him was more grief. When the Yankee fans were really giving it to Martinez as he walked off the field last night you could see him break into a smile before the cameras cut to commercial. You are not supposed to laugh in the face of defeat in the baseball universe, that's not the manly way to handle it, but Martinez knew that the Yanks had beaten him and the only sensible thing to do was to "tip his cap" to them. He pitched a great game, but Burnett pitched an even better one.
The big moment for me was when Rollins worked a walk off Rivera in the 8th. That was quite an effort against a guy who never walks anyone. Then Victorino poked one into right field and the big guys were coming up with only one out. Alas, Utley hit a double play ball, and was out at first on a verrrrry close play. That was it for the Phils. Give credit to the Yanks, they made the big plays and got the big hits when they needed them. Burnett pitched a gem and got the ball to Mariano for the last six outs--that's a tough formula for any club, even the defending champs. Cole Hamels has yet to show his 2008 form, but he'll get a chance on Saturday at home to right the ship. He'd be the game seven starter if this rotation holds. Will we see C.C. come back on short rest for game four if the Yanks are down 2-1? If the Phils are in a 2-1 hole will they trust their fortunes to journeyman Joe Blanton or rookie J.A. Happ? What a great series so far, eh? Let's hope it keeps up.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Phils 6, Yanks 1
Ave Imperator, morituri te salutant!
The Gauls held the legions at bay last night. I've no doubt the Emperor was pissed and a troop of minions was decimated. Exceptional performance by Cliff Lee, dominating the toughest lineup in the game and out-dueling the big ace, C.C. Sabathia. The Yanks 'pen blew some serious chow in the 8th and 9th, and a desperate Girardi did his best Felipe impression, getting the last six outs with five guys.
Some wag opined yesterday "The Phils will need to have the big guns delivering the big hits and will need Cliff Lee to neutralize C.C." I'd say two homers by Chase Utley, two doubles by Ryan Howard, and two RBI by Raul Ibanez counts for the big guns/big hits part and an Game Score of 83 (TEN striekouts!) qualifies as neutralizing. What a cool customer Lee is--would you say he is the biggest pick-up of the season?
The Gauls held the legions at bay last night. I've no doubt the Emperor was pissed and a troop of minions was decimated. Exceptional performance by Cliff Lee, dominating the toughest lineup in the game and out-dueling the big ace, C.C. Sabathia. The Yanks 'pen blew some serious chow in the 8th and 9th, and a desperate Girardi did his best Felipe impression, getting the last six outs with five guys.
Some wag opined yesterday "The Phils will need to have the big guns delivering the big hits and will need Cliff Lee to neutralize C.C." I'd say two homers by Chase Utley, two doubles by Ryan Howard, and two RBI by Raul Ibanez counts for the big guns/big hits part and an Game Score of 83 (TEN striekouts!) qualifies as neutralizing. What a cool customer Lee is--would you say he is the biggest pick-up of the season?
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
The Serious
The World Series starts tomorrow, thanks to the TV networks and their stranglehold on Bud Selig's pubic hair. Let's see what the matchups look like. The Yankees, as a team, sport a wOBA of .366, best in the majors. The Phillies come in tied for 5th with the Rockies at .340, best in the NL. How about OBP? Yankees, 1st (.362), Phillies 14th (.334). Slugging? Yanks with the gold(.478), Phils with the bronze (.447). Runs scored? Yanks on top again (915), Phils 4th (820, best in the NL). The Yanks hit the most HRs--244--but the Phils are right behind at 224. The Yanks have the most hits and the most walks and the third fewest strikeouts--the Phils are middle-of-the-pack in all three. On paper, it's a mismatch. The Bombers have the best lineup in baseball. The Phils, of course, have Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jason Werth, and Raul Ibanez, all serious mashers, throw in Shane Victorino and the 2008 Jimmy Rollins and you've got a hell of a team. But no team in the game can match the Yanks for firepower: Jeter, Damon, Teixeira, A-Rod, Posada, Matsui, Cano, and Swisher all sport an OPS above .850 and a wOBA over .370! Of the 2009 Giants, only Pablo Sandoval (.943/.396) could crack that lineup, and he'd be up against Tex and A-Rod for a spot to play. Scary. One plus for the Phils? They only hit into 90 DPs, best in the game, 54 fewer than the Yanks.
How about pitching? The Yanks are 13th in team FIP (4.32), the Phils 17th (4.36). The Yankees bring some cheese with 1260 strikeouts, good for 4th (SFG #1 at 1302), while the Phils are 12th at 1153. The Phillies, on the other hand, don't walk people (489, 3rd best), while the Yanks do (574, 18th). The Phils gave up 709 runs (8th best), while the Yanks yielded 753 (11th). Both teams give up a lot of HRs (181--NYY, 189--PHI), but both play in hitter-friendly parks. The Phillies have 8 complete games (3 by Happ, 2 by Hamels, 3 by Lee) and 5 shutouts (2 Happ, 2 Hamels, 1 Lee). The Yankees have 2 CG by Sabathia, 1 a shutout, and 1 CG by Burnett. Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia have both been dominant in the post-season so far--will we get 3 starts by either of them if it goes seven? If I were Philly, I'd be tempted. The Yanks can counter Hamels with Pettite and Happ or Blanton with Burnett. The X-factor for Philadelphia will be Pedro Martinez. If he can pitch like the vintage Pedro we have all seen in the past that will be a huge plus for Philly. The other starters after Hamels--who has looked shaky so far--are eminently hittable. The Yankees have a huge advantage in late and close situations with Mariano Rivera, who seems to be just as good as he's always been, which means he's one of the best of all time.
The Phils will need to have the big guns delivering the big hits and will need Cliff Lee to neutralize C.C. Otherwise the Yanks will roll. The Phils are the defending champs--that counts for something. But the Yanks can wear anyone down with the bats--there's a reason they had the most regular-season wins. In a short series, we know that anything can happen and the "best" team doesn't always win. I'll root for the Phils, naturally, being the NL rep and all that, not to mention that rooting for the Yanks is like rooting for the Roman Empire. But my head says the Yanks will get the ring even though my heart says otherwise.
How about pitching? The Yanks are 13th in team FIP (4.32), the Phils 17th (4.36). The Yankees bring some cheese with 1260 strikeouts, good for 4th (SFG #1 at 1302), while the Phils are 12th at 1153. The Phillies, on the other hand, don't walk people (489, 3rd best), while the Yanks do (574, 18th). The Phils gave up 709 runs (8th best), while the Yanks yielded 753 (11th). Both teams give up a lot of HRs (181--NYY, 189--PHI), but both play in hitter-friendly parks. The Phillies have 8 complete games (3 by Happ, 2 by Hamels, 3 by Lee) and 5 shutouts (2 Happ, 2 Hamels, 1 Lee). The Yankees have 2 CG by Sabathia, 1 a shutout, and 1 CG by Burnett. Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia have both been dominant in the post-season so far--will we get 3 starts by either of them if it goes seven? If I were Philly, I'd be tempted. The Yanks can counter Hamels with Pettite and Happ or Blanton with Burnett. The X-factor for Philadelphia will be Pedro Martinez. If he can pitch like the vintage Pedro we have all seen in the past that will be a huge plus for Philly. The other starters after Hamels--who has looked shaky so far--are eminently hittable. The Yankees have a huge advantage in late and close situations with Mariano Rivera, who seems to be just as good as he's always been, which means he's one of the best of all time.
The Phils will need to have the big guns delivering the big hits and will need Cliff Lee to neutralize C.C. Otherwise the Yanks will roll. The Phils are the defending champs--that counts for something. But the Yanks can wear anyone down with the bats--there's a reason they had the most regular-season wins. In a short series, we know that anything can happen and the "best" team doesn't always win. I'll root for the Phils, naturally, being the NL rep and all that, not to mention that rooting for the Yanks is like rooting for the Roman Empire. But my head says the Yanks will get the ring even though my heart says otherwise.
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