SF 5 TEX 3
After blowing a 6-0 lead last night the Giants looked like they might blow today's 4-0 lead but they hung on to win 5-3. Rookie Andrew Suarez had an excellent start: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, righting the ship after a disastrous start in Cincinnati. Last night rookie Dereck Rodriguez delivered 6 IP and only 2 R but the 'pen couldn't hold the lead and the Rangers prevailed in extras. This afternoon the 'pen was shaky but ultimately shut down the Texas lineup when it mattered and the team managed to notch one in the win column. The Giants sit in fourth place at 64-67, 8-1/2 off the pace in the West. Getting back-to-back solid outings from the young starters is nice to see. Let's hope they can carry their successes over to next year as the rotation will be without Johnny Cueto.
Buster Posey goes for surgery on Monday, ending his season. The hope is that he will be healthy for the start of next season. Aramis Garcia will be called up to take his spot. Garcia was a second-round pick in 2014, the 52nd overall, five spots above Andy Suarez. Tyler Beede was the team's first-round pick that year (#14), and Austin Slater was acquired in the 8th round (#238 overall). Derek Holland gets the start tomorrow in the rubber game. The rotation has not been announced for the Arizona series.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
Showing posts with label future giants. Show all posts
Showing posts with label future giants. Show all posts
Saturday, August 25, 2018
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Helpless Team
Barry Zito had a magical run last season, and earned a spot in the franchise's pantheon with his start for the ages in Game Five of the LCS, and his gritty showdown with the game's best in Game One of the Series. But now he's done. Finished. Kaput. His career as a Giants pitcher will come to an end in two months, as it seems impossible to imagine the team offering him $18M to stay when they can pay him $7M to go. And it seems increasingly likely that he will miss some starts. Ol' Boch was cagey about that in the post-game interview, but you have to think they've already pencilled in a few extra rest days for the beleaguered lefty. Since beating Miami at home on June 22nd, Zeets has thrown 25-1/3 innings over six starts, allowing 39 hits and 21 runs, and the team's gone 1-5. He's still listed as the starter for Sunday's game in Tampa Bay, but if it were me I'd find a Mike Kickham, Eric Surkamp, or Guillermo Moscoso for that duty. The team is home against the Brewers right after that--why not give Barry-Z an extra day off and a chance to pitch in friendlier confines? His road WHIP is 2.352 and teams are hitting like Ted Williams against him. Literally, his road BAA is .406!
The Giants have seven wins in the month of July. They have a chance to make it eight today behind Chad Gaudin. They had ten wins in the month of June. They are 19-32 on the road. They are in last place, eleven games behind the Dodgers. What, exactly, are the Giants going to do at the trade deadline to change that? I'll tell you: nothing. They can't acquire any player or combination of players that will make a big enough difference. If they sell, they are building for 2014, not for the rest of the season. If they are going to salvage the last two months (57 games), they are going to do it with the hand they've got. You don't throw good money after bad in poker, and you don't reinforce failure in war. This team has players who can win baseball games. The fact that they are not winning baseball games does not change the truth of the first statement. If the Giants win 35 of their remaining games (.614 ball) they'll finish the season with 81 wins and a .500 record. If the Dodgers win only 25 of their final 57 games (.438 ball, exactly what the Giants are doing now), they will finish with 82 wins. That's what "11 games behind" means. Like I said before, the math ain't pretty.
C'mon, Giants. Win some goddamn games.
--M.C.
The Giants have seven wins in the month of July. They have a chance to make it eight today behind Chad Gaudin. They had ten wins in the month of June. They are 19-32 on the road. They are in last place, eleven games behind the Dodgers. What, exactly, are the Giants going to do at the trade deadline to change that? I'll tell you: nothing. They can't acquire any player or combination of players that will make a big enough difference. If they sell, they are building for 2014, not for the rest of the season. If they are going to salvage the last two months (57 games), they are going to do it with the hand they've got. You don't throw good money after bad in poker, and you don't reinforce failure in war. This team has players who can win baseball games. The fact that they are not winning baseball games does not change the truth of the first statement. If the Giants win 35 of their remaining games (.614 ball) they'll finish the season with 81 wins and a .500 record. If the Dodgers win only 25 of their final 57 games (.438 ball, exactly what the Giants are doing now), they will finish with 82 wins. That's what "11 games behind" means. Like I said before, the math ain't pretty.
C'mon, Giants. Win some goddamn games.
--M.C.
Friday, July 5, 2013
Peee-Yeww
I was lured into thinking that the Giants had bottomed and were directionally correct. You know, blown out, then no-hit, then an extra-innings loss, then a tie (or rain-out, if you prefer). But tonight was a stinker. Matty threw like crap. I don't know........maybe the Giants do need to make a move. If so, I'm hoping they can get Shin-Soo-ji.
I would sincerely like the Giants to show that my opinions are posted just in time to make a fool of me.
I would sincerely like the Giants to show that my opinions are posted just in time to make a fool of me.
Thursday, June 20, 2013
Giants Come Up Short
I don't like one-run leads. I like six-run leads. I know that's a little greedy, and since the Giants average about 4.3 runs per game, not a frequent occurrence. But I'm with Billy Martin on the idea that a team never has enough runs. Sure, if Jeremy Affeldt had made a better 0-2 pitch, the Giants might have won the game by a score of 1-0, but "ifs" and "mights" aren't wins. The home team allowed only five hits and two runs and yet lost the game. Youngster Tom Koehler wasn't particularly pretty and was also a little wild but still threw five no-hit innings, six one-hit innings, and seven one-run innings. That's too many innings, I know, but it sure seemed like the Giants made a lot more than 27 outs tonight. This was a game screaming for a two-run homer to give the 'pen a little cushion, but that's not the Giants. They have the second-fewest homers in the league (49), well ahead of tonight's winning club, the Miami Marlins (37). I can live without the homers--after all we saw a nice double and triple sequence (both hit to the gap in right-center) from Brandon Belt and Joaquin Arias to get the run, but that was that. There are lots of ways to score in the game of baseball, and I'll take any of them.
Chad Gaudin was the human pincushion tonight, and the third time was the curse. He took a shot off his pitching elbow with one out in the 5th and had to be relieved. Sandy Rosario retired the next eight but walked the leadoff hitter in the 8th and so turned the ball over to Affeldt. After his meltdown against San Diego on Tuesday, we were all looking for a better outcome, but it wasn't to be. Let's hope Gaudin is OK, he's been effective as a starter and the team needs him. Rosario looked good as well and at this point every arm counts. We'll all just have to ride out this "Bad Jeremy" stretch together, I reckon.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
p.s. They talked to first-round pick Christian Arroyo on the telecast. He looks like he's about 15, and talks like a high school kid. Oh, that's right, he is a high school kid. Or was, just a few days ago. Actually he sounded pretty good--said all the right things and was appropriately eager and awestruck. He's got some more inches to grow and some more pounds to put on. Should be fun to follow his progress over the next few years.
Chad Gaudin was the human pincushion tonight, and the third time was the curse. He took a shot off his pitching elbow with one out in the 5th and had to be relieved. Sandy Rosario retired the next eight but walked the leadoff hitter in the 8th and so turned the ball over to Affeldt. After his meltdown against San Diego on Tuesday, we were all looking for a better outcome, but it wasn't to be. Let's hope Gaudin is OK, he's been effective as a starter and the team needs him. Rosario looked good as well and at this point every arm counts. We'll all just have to ride out this "Bad Jeremy" stretch together, I reckon.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
p.s. They talked to first-round pick Christian Arroyo on the telecast. He looks like he's about 15, and talks like a high school kid. Oh, that's right, he is a high school kid. Or was, just a few days ago. Actually he sounded pretty good--said all the right things and was appropriately eager and awestruck. He's got some more inches to grow and some more pounds to put on. Should be fun to follow his progress over the next few years.
Thursday, June 7, 2012
Score early and often
It was a sloppy day on the field for the Giants with errors by Brandon Belt, Ryan Theriot, Angel Pagan, and Joaquin Arias. All three runs given up by Matt Cain today were unearned. Good thing then that the Giants scored eight runs, because it was one of those fielding performances that should have doomed them. The Padres squared up on a few from Cain, but he got some big strikeouts (nine) and two double plays, with a particularly timely one from Cameron Maybin to end the 6th. I've been going on a bit lately about the importance of defense, and a pitching team that plays close games really needs to field well. Today the Giants mashed their way past the Padres, with Gregor Blanco flashing power (a homer and a double), The Riot stroking four hits and nearly getting a fifth, and Buster Posey smoking one deep to left leading off the 3rd after already driving in a run in the 1st. Fifteen hits in pitcher-friendly Petco Park! The first two runs off San Diego starter Jason Marquis were also unearned, as he made a throwing error before Buster's hit.
Not quite the kind of series we expected down there, but it ended well with two big wins. Madison Bumgarner wasn't stellar yesterday (four walks!), but the Padres helped him out with a huge error by rookie and Tuesday night hero Logan Forsythe, and the lineup thumped Clayton Richard for ten hits. A team effort, to be sure.
The Texas Rangers come to town tomorrow--they lead the AL West by four games and have the best run difference (+64) in baseball. Should be fun.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
p.s. Cain now has six wins in his last six starts and has seven total which is tied with Bumgarner for the team lead (they are in a crowd for third-best in the NL). In his 12 starts the team is 9-3. They are 8-4 with the lefty on the hill.
p.p.s. Giants drafted 40 players--21 pitchers. No surprise there, and I like the first two picks very much. I'm also intrigued by the first position player they took (3rd round), Johnathon "Mac" Williamson, an outfielder from Wake Forest. He led the ACC in home runs (17).
Not quite the kind of series we expected down there, but it ended well with two big wins. Madison Bumgarner wasn't stellar yesterday (four walks!), but the Padres helped him out with a huge error by rookie and Tuesday night hero Logan Forsythe, and the lineup thumped Clayton Richard for ten hits. A team effort, to be sure.
The Texas Rangers come to town tomorrow--they lead the AL West by four games and have the best run difference (+64) in baseball. Should be fun.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
p.s. Cain now has six wins in his last six starts and has seven total which is tied with Bumgarner for the team lead (they are in a crowd for third-best in the NL). In his 12 starts the team is 9-3. They are 8-4 with the lefty on the hill.
p.p.s. Giants drafted 40 players--21 pitchers. No surprise there, and I like the first two picks very much. I'm also intrigued by the first position player they took (3rd round), Johnathon "Mac" Williamson, an outfielder from Wake Forest. He led the ACC in home runs (17).
Saturday, May 5, 2012
At last, the sweet taste of victory
Watching the ballclub today I was reminded how young it is. Rookie Brandon Crawford did not start, nor did rookies Brandon Belt and Emmanuel Burriss. But rookies Hector Sanchez, Brett Pill, and Conor Gillaspie did. Joaquin Arias is not a rookie, but he has what, 300 plate appearances in the majors? Buster Posey, despite his skill and savvy, is still shaking off the rust from his long rehab. It should not surprise us that the club is struggling in the field. Angel Pagan is not a rookie either, but he is an FNG and it looks like he has not taken charge in center field. Angel, brah--carpe diem. Mark your territory out there in the greensward and cover it. Madison Bumgarner, thankfully, is a god among men, a compliment I usually reserve for Matt Cain. The young lefty is The Stopper, Da Man, the Big Arm, and The Horse these days. But this is a raw, unpolished bunch. The organization made a commitment to youth in 2012, and when you do that you get a lot of raw, unpolished play. The guy displaying the most VSC, and a joy to watch, is FNG Melky Cabrera. Fine work at the plate, on the bases, and in the field. He has a dozen multi-hit games already. Young 'uns HSanchez and B-Pill both hit a couple of balls really hard and were rewarded, and CMG managed a smart RBI with a ground ball to the right side. We are going to see a lot of ups and downs with this bunch. The vets--the starters, in particular--will have to be rock-solid. The injuries have also forced Ol' Boch to stock the 'pen with rooks like Travis Blackley and Steve Edlefsen (with Dan Otero and Eric Surkamp in the wings). It's a young bunch, my friends. Regardless of how you feel about The Sabester, he has--so far--overcome his veteranophilia for 2012.
Pitch well, lads, and catch the bloody fecking ball, eh? That will get you back to winning ways. And t'anks and glory be to Bog and All His Holy Angels and Saints for Madison Bumgarner, for he not only can throw a world-class slider, he can rake in the clutch, too.
--M.C.
p.s. Hitting streaks are weird: Angel is up to 19 games but is still hitting .259 with a .284 OBP.
Pitch well, lads, and catch the bloody fecking ball, eh? That will get you back to winning ways. And t'anks and glory be to Bog and All His Holy Angels and Saints for Madison Bumgarner, for he not only can throw a world-class slider, he can rake in the clutch, too.
--M.C.
p.s. Hitting streaks are weird: Angel is up to 19 games but is still hitting .259 with a .284 OBP.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Not with a bang, but with a whimper
Curse you, Blake DeCasey! Whoops, I mean, Casey DeWitt. Er, Witt DeBlakey. Casey Blake, that's it! Jesus, the Dodgers have these two guys I can never keep straight. I mean Casey Blake and Blake DeWitt on the same team? Sometimes in the same infield? Should not be allowed.
Certainly a let-down last night, I was soooooooooooooo hoping for a sweep. I know, it doesn't happen very often, but goddamn I wanted one! If I were big-shot sports-writer with a little picture of me next to my column with my cool handlebar moustache and bulging jowls and creepy comb-over hairdo, I'd probably write a meaningful piece about the Giants inability to put teams away, and how a team of real men would stand up and manfully do the manly little things needed to un-man the opposition. But since I'm a mere amateur blogger-hack, I'll spare you. But you can look at my little picture anyway.
I desperately want to blame somebody for failing to nut-up and deliver the big hit. I want to gnash my teeth about another wasted start. I want to moan about our lack of a game-changing hitter. (Jose Bautista? How Sabean-esque can you get?) But I'll spare you. And you'll thank me.
--M.C.
p.s. Jose Bautista: fluke or breakout? You decide.
Certainly a let-down last night, I was soooooooooooooo hoping for a sweep. I know, it doesn't happen very often, but goddamn I wanted one! If I were big-shot sports-writer with a little picture of me next to my column with my cool handlebar moustache and bulging jowls and creepy comb-over hairdo, I'd probably write a meaningful piece about the Giants inability to put teams away, and how a team of real men would stand up and manfully do the manly little things needed to un-man the opposition. But since I'm a mere amateur blogger-hack, I'll spare you. But you can look at my little picture anyway.
I desperately want to blame somebody for failing to nut-up and deliver the big hit. I want to gnash my teeth about another wasted start. I want to moan about our lack of a game-changing hitter. (Jose Bautista? How Sabean-esque can you get?) But I'll spare you. And you'll thank me.
--M.C.
p.s. Jose Bautista: fluke or breakout? You decide.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Run scoring
A poor hitting team averages 4 runs per game. For a season, that's 648 runs. The Giants scored 657 runs in 2009. A good hitting team averages 5 runs per game. 810 runs in a season will put you among the league leaders. The 2009 Phillies scored 820 runs. The league average last year was 4.43, or 718 runs. Seven NL clubs managed to score more than 4.5 runs per game: Philadelphia, Colorado, Milwaukee, Los Angeles, Florida, Atlanta, and St. Louis.
Baseball Musings has been running a series on team offense (see the Giants entry here). Mr. Pinto gives a breakdown of his procedure here. Mostly, he relies on Marcel the Monkey forecasts. The neat part is the Lineup Analysis Tool. You plug the player projections in to the lineup slots and see how many runs per game that combination creates. For the Giants, they score the most runs when the pitcher bats 8th! This, of course, will never happen. Tony LaRussa manages in St. Louis. But the following lineup projects to a little over 4.5 runs per game: DeRosa, Sandoval, Schierholtz, Huff, Rowand, Molina, Uribe, pitchers, Renteria. I can't argue with hitting DeRosa near the top, his lifetime .275/.343/.424 makes him our best hitter not named Sandoval. The Nate projections may be a tad optimistic, though. All of the idealized "best" lineups that compute to over 4.5 rpg involve Renteria hitting last, Molina no higher than 6th, Sandoval and DeRosa no lower than 3rd, Huff (mostly) at cleanup, and Rowand 3rd through 5th. And they expect a lot (.753 OPS) from Schierholtz. If the Giants score 4.5 rpg (or 9 runs every 2 games if decimal runs bother you), they will win the West.
This, though, is the Giants. And soon, it will be the real season and not the imaginary one. Aaron Rowand will lead off and Juan Uribe will hit second. This is because he is our second baseman, and our second baseman hits second. Please don't ask why, just accept. With Sandoval, Huff, DeRosa, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz, and the pitcher following, LAT says 4.353 rpg. That's 705 runs, just about what the Cubs (707) scored in 2009, good for 10th place. Back in the real world, the team might get smart and put DeRosa at second base while FSanchez is out and bat him in front of Sandoval where his decent OBP skills will be of the most use. Since he's a "proven run producer" (Sabes-speak for "RBI guy") we will likely not see that. But it might be the best way to get either Fred Lewis (very unlikely) or John Bowker (certainly possible) into the lineup in left field. Uribe, despite his fine season last year (.824 OPS), is a Molina-like hacker and his low OBP (.298! lifetime) should NOT be at the top of the lineup. If we can find a way to get Mr. Upside Buster Posey into the lineup instead of Mr. Out-maker Bengie Molina, we just might have a league-average offense. Let's hope we figure out how to do that.
--M.C.
Baseball Musings has been running a series on team offense (see the Giants entry here). Mr. Pinto gives a breakdown of his procedure here. Mostly, he relies on Marcel the Monkey forecasts. The neat part is the Lineup Analysis Tool. You plug the player projections in to the lineup slots and see how many runs per game that combination creates. For the Giants, they score the most runs when the pitcher bats 8th! This, of course, will never happen. Tony LaRussa manages in St. Louis. But the following lineup projects to a little over 4.5 runs per game: DeRosa, Sandoval, Schierholtz, Huff, Rowand, Molina, Uribe, pitchers, Renteria. I can't argue with hitting DeRosa near the top, his lifetime .275/.343/.424 makes him our best hitter not named Sandoval. The Nate projections may be a tad optimistic, though. All of the idealized "best" lineups that compute to over 4.5 rpg involve Renteria hitting last, Molina no higher than 6th, Sandoval and DeRosa no lower than 3rd, Huff (mostly) at cleanup, and Rowand 3rd through 5th. And they expect a lot (.753 OPS) from Schierholtz. If the Giants score 4.5 rpg (or 9 runs every 2 games if decimal runs bother you), they will win the West.
This, though, is the Giants. And soon, it will be the real season and not the imaginary one. Aaron Rowand will lead off and Juan Uribe will hit second. This is because he is our second baseman, and our second baseman hits second. Please don't ask why, just accept. With Sandoval, Huff, DeRosa, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz, and the pitcher following, LAT says 4.353 rpg. That's 705 runs, just about what the Cubs (707) scored in 2009, good for 10th place. Back in the real world, the team might get smart and put DeRosa at second base while FSanchez is out and bat him in front of Sandoval where his decent OBP skills will be of the most use. Since he's a "proven run producer" (Sabes-speak for "RBI guy") we will likely not see that. But it might be the best way to get either Fred Lewis (very unlikely) or John Bowker (certainly possible) into the lineup in left field. Uribe, despite his fine season last year (.824 OPS), is a Molina-like hacker and his low OBP (.298! lifetime) should NOT be at the top of the lineup. If we can find a way to get Mr. Upside Buster Posey into the lineup instead of Mr. Out-maker Bengie Molina, we just might have a league-average offense. Let's hope we figure out how to do that.
--M.C.
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Golden afternoon
Blue sky, golden sunshine, vernal equinox, Giants baseball on TV . . . what could be bad?
No Buster, for one. Have to watch Molina and Whiteside--tell me why? My CSN-BA broadcast said "HD" but it looked a hell of a lot like "Lo-D" to me.
Those are quibbles, though. The good stuff? Bengie actually took some pitches and Eli roped a two-run double. Big bombs by Resurrected Renteria and Hopeful Huff. Brandon Crawford looked good stroking one to RF. Todd "5th-man" Wellemeyer made his pitches and made his pitch . . . will MadBum get the bus ticket to Fresno? Alex Hinshaw showed some good form.
Let's get this season started!
Oh, almost forgot--
HOW ABOUT THOSE GOLDEN BEARS TAKIN' LOUISVILLE BEHIND THE WOODSHED FOR AN OL' FASHIONED COUNTRY WHUPPIN'???
Gotta love that.
--M.C.
No Buster, for one. Have to watch Molina and Whiteside--tell me why? My CSN-BA broadcast said "HD" but it looked a hell of a lot like "Lo-D" to me.
Those are quibbles, though. The good stuff? Bengie actually took some pitches and Eli roped a two-run double. Big bombs by Resurrected Renteria and Hopeful Huff. Brandon Crawford looked good stroking one to RF. Todd "5th-man" Wellemeyer made his pitches and made his pitch . . . will MadBum get the bus ticket to Fresno? Alex Hinshaw showed some good form.
Let's get this season started!
Oh, almost forgot--
HOW ABOUT THOSE GOLDEN BEARS TAKIN' LOUISVILLE BEHIND THE WOODSHED FOR AN OL' FASHIONED COUNTRY WHUPPIN'???
Gotta love that.
--M.C.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Bring me the head of the nearest GM
Take a look at this article by Alex Speier (fullcount.weei.com) on baseball's GMs (h/t to Harball Talk). His point--mainly--is that GMs aren't any younger or any more educated than they were 10 years ago, despite the high-profile success of wunderkinds like Theo Epstein in Boston. There are only four guys on the list who have been with the same team from 2000-2010, and one of them is Brian Sabean. The other three are Dan O'Dowd (Rockies), Billy Beane (A's), and Brian Cashman (Yankees). Mark Shapiro, GM of the Indians, discusses the state of the job (emphasis mine):
Here's my question for you long-suffering Giants fans--is our FO adapting? Has it raised the standards? Does it recognize that the competition is greater today than it was yesterday? Or is there someone on that list you'd rather have manning the helm? Sabes gets his share of lumps here at RMC--does he deserve it? When I see a lineup like this one I can get pretty excited about our future. But then I remember that this lineup is the one we are going with, and my balloon deflates. What say, mates?
--M.C.
(quote from Profile of a GM in 2010 by Alex Speier)
“When I say the quality, intelligence, aptitude and capability of front offices across the board has increased, it’s not just because some guys from Ivy League schools have become general managers. It’s because the standards have been raised, the competition is greater and people are adapting.”
Here's my question for you long-suffering Giants fans--is our FO adapting? Has it raised the standards? Does it recognize that the competition is greater today than it was yesterday? Or is there someone on that list you'd rather have manning the helm? Sabes gets his share of lumps here at RMC--does he deserve it? When I see a lineup like this one I can get pretty excited about our future. But then I remember that this lineup is the one we are going with, and my balloon deflates. What say, mates?
--M.C.
(quote from Profile of a GM in 2010 by Alex Speier)
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Our rookies
Marc Hulet does a round-up of the 2010 rookie crop and TWO GIANTS make the list. We all know Stephen Strasburg in Washington and Jason Heyward in Atlanta are "A-list" prospects, but our very own Buster Posey is sandwiched between them in the article:
I really hate the idea of using Posey anywhere but catcher. I really hate the idea that Bengie Molina is the starter and not the backup. I really hate--although I'm resigned to--the idea of Buster starting the season in AAA. Teams don't give $4.5 M to catchers to sit on the bench.
The other rookie, of course, is Madison Bumgarner:
Bumgarner is only 20 and I have no issue with him getting some more minor-league seasoning. Then again, I think I'd rather have 20 starts from him than from Todd Wellmeyer. I'm not worried about the 5-slot. I'm worried about Matt Cain's BABIP and LOB% if you really want to know. I don't worry about Aubrey Huff, Mark DeRosa, Freddy Sanchez, and Edgar Renteria. We KNOW what we are getting with those guys. I worry about Jonathan Sanchez being able to throw 180 innings (he never has). In other words, I worry about our team strength being at its best all year long. The team weaknesses are what they are, and we are sticking with them, by gum.
--M.C.
Buster Posey, C, San Francisco
2009 Peak Level: The Majors
2010 Roadblock: Management and Bengie Molina
The Giants club saved Molina from a chilly free agent market, but who is going to save general manager Brian Sabean from himself? The club's man-crush on veterans is once again showing its ugly face, as the MLB-ready Posey is in danger of A) beginning the year in the minors, or B) seeing his development stunted by playing multiple positions. Yes, the kid is athletic enough to play a number of positions, but he hasn't been catching all that long so he needs to keep polishing his act behind the dish. Long-term, his value is at its highest by wearing the tools of ignorance.
I really hate the idea of using Posey anywhere but catcher. I really hate the idea that Bengie Molina is the starter and not the backup. I really hate--although I'm resigned to--the idea of Buster starting the season in AAA. Teams don't give $4.5 M to catchers to sit on the bench.
The other rookie, of course, is Madison Bumgarner:
Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco
2009 Peak Level: The Majors
2010 Roadblock: Todd Wellemeyer
There has been a lot said about Bumgarner's drop in velocity in '09 but velo, although important, is not the end-all-and-be-all for a pitcher's success. With that said, the lefty could probably use a little more seasoning in the minors if you consider the fact that his FIP has risen (3.56 FIP in double-A, compared to his ERA of 1.93), while his K/BB has dropped (to 2.30 BB/K), with each promotion. Bumgarner still has the ceiling of a No.2 starter for me, but he's just 20 years old. However, the fact that Wellemeyer is the other option for the fifth spot worries me.
Bumgarner is only 20 and I have no issue with him getting some more minor-league seasoning. Then again, I think I'd rather have 20 starts from him than from Todd Wellmeyer. I'm not worried about the 5-slot. I'm worried about Matt Cain's BABIP and LOB% if you really want to know. I don't worry about Aubrey Huff, Mark DeRosa, Freddy Sanchez, and Edgar Renteria. We KNOW what we are getting with those guys. I worry about Jonathan Sanchez being able to throw 180 innings (he never has). In other words, I worry about our team strength being at its best all year long. The team weaknesses are what they are, and we are sticking with them, by gum.
--M.C.
Monday, January 25, 2010
How the West Was Won: 2009
Are you an optimist or pessimist? Dreamer or skeptic? The 2009 Giants drew a line right down the middle of the fanbase with the "glass half-full" folks and "glass half-empty" folks picking sides and lining themselves up for 2010. How can this be? Easy--take a good look at last season. The 3rd-place Giants (88-74, overperforming by 2 games) scored only 657 runs (13th) but allowed only 611 (T1st). They had 18 team shutouts and a fantastic MLB-best 123 ERA+. Unfortunately, their hated arch-rivals in Chavez LAtrine also had great pitching, also allowing only 611 runs (T1st, 116 ERA+) while scoring 780 (4th). That was good enough for a West title (95-67, underforming by 4 games). The 18-28 Rockies fired Clint Hurdle at the end of May and surged into the Wild Card under Jim Tracy, going 21-7 in June and 74-42 overall to finish 92-70 (overperfoming by 2 games). They did it with the bats, of course, their 804 RS was second only to league champs Philadelphia, but their improved pitching (only 715 RA, 7th, 108 ERA+) was the difference. We've seen poor offenses win the West in our look back, but rarely do we see poor offensive squads beat out well-balanced teams. Both LA and Colorado present formidable obstacles to the G-men's chances of winning the West in 2010, as both have a core of young, talented players on both sides of the ball. San Diego (75-87) overperformed its Pythagorean percentage by 8 games--their RS/RA (638/15th, 769/12th) numbers were truly awful, they were lucky not to finish last. Their abysmal 84 ERA+ is hard to believe in their cavernous home yard. Arizona got the last spot (70-92, underperforming by 5 games), scoring 720 runs (8th) and yielding 782 (14th). Their ERA+ of 103 is likely a reflection of their hitting-friendly park.
The Giants finished 7 behind LA and only 4 behind Colorado, and their 88 wins were more than both Atlanta (115 ERA+, 86 wins) and Chicago (117 ERA+, 83 wins). Tim Lincecum nabbed another Cy Young, Matt Cain was an All-Star, and Jonathan Sanchez threw a no-hitter. Even Billion-Dollar Boy Barry Zito was reasonably effective (108 ERA+). Pablo Sandoval burst onto the NL scene with a .943 OPS (142 OPS+), thus proving the organization can produce a hitter. It was a great year, marred only by the front office and their idiotic trades of top prospects Tim Alderson and Scott Barnes for Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko. FSanchez was too hurt to play, and Garko, slumping in orange and black, never got a chance and was non-tendered in the off-season (while broken-down Freddy got a 2-year, $12M deal and won't be suited up for Opening Day). It is hard being a fan of this organization. The pitching is world class and screams for the complementary pieces to round out the club, and the Brain Trust tosses us bones like Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa. One of the top prospects in all of baseball, Buster Posey, got a cuppa-coffee-call-up in September and spent his time on the bench watching the final season of the old, slow, hackmeister catcher he was groomed to replace. Oh, wait, we re-signed that guy and Buster will have to wait some more. If there is one single thing the Giants did this off-season to empty my glass, it's that. Hotshot young'un Madison Bumgarner also made his debut, he's pencilled in as the 2010 5th starter despite being much younger than Posey and having under 300 IP of professional experience. Hey, I'm all for MadBum, but the illogic of that decision makes me question the Brian Trust's competence even more than I already do.
There you have it--How the West Was Won. Next up--How to Win the West: a position-by-position look at your 2010 Giants, followed by an appraisal of our Division rivals. Pitchers and catchers report in mere weeks!
The Giants finished 7 behind LA and only 4 behind Colorado, and their 88 wins were more than both Atlanta (115 ERA+, 86 wins) and Chicago (117 ERA+, 83 wins). Tim Lincecum nabbed another Cy Young, Matt Cain was an All-Star, and Jonathan Sanchez threw a no-hitter. Even Billion-Dollar Boy Barry Zito was reasonably effective (108 ERA+). Pablo Sandoval burst onto the NL scene with a .943 OPS (142 OPS+), thus proving the organization can produce a hitter. It was a great year, marred only by the front office and their idiotic trades of top prospects Tim Alderson and Scott Barnes for Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko. FSanchez was too hurt to play, and Garko, slumping in orange and black, never got a chance and was non-tendered in the off-season (while broken-down Freddy got a 2-year, $12M deal and won't be suited up for Opening Day). It is hard being a fan of this organization. The pitching is world class and screams for the complementary pieces to round out the club, and the Brain Trust tosses us bones like Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa. One of the top prospects in all of baseball, Buster Posey, got a cuppa-coffee-call-up in September and spent his time on the bench watching the final season of the old, slow, hackmeister catcher he was groomed to replace. Oh, wait, we re-signed that guy and Buster will have to wait some more. If there is one single thing the Giants did this off-season to empty my glass, it's that. Hotshot young'un Madison Bumgarner also made his debut, he's pencilled in as the 2010 5th starter despite being much younger than Posey and having under 300 IP of professional experience. Hey, I'm all for MadBum, but the illogic of that decision makes me question the Brian Trust's competence even more than I already do.
There you have it--How the West Was Won. Next up--How to Win the West: a position-by-position look at your 2010 Giants, followed by an appraisal of our Division rivals. Pitchers and catchers report in mere weeks!
Sunday, December 13, 2009
" . . . and soon fell out of favor. . . "
FanGraphs' RJ Anderson breaks down the Garko move. He thinks it is one of the silliest of the off-season. Even if you skip the story, look at the graph comparing Adam LaRoche's wOBA with Ryan Garko's. The blue line is "league average."
Grant at McChronic is just as bewildered. Garko was worth something when we acquired him--he was worth exactly one pitching prospect. Apparently that pitching prospect had almost no value because the Giants aren't willing to pay Garko $2 M or so next year (he was paid $466 K this year).
The Giants traded for Freddy Sanchez, who was hurt and couldn't play. We gave away a pitching prospect for a guy that could not help us. Then we gave that same guy $12 M for the next two years. No audition at all for FSanchez--he had the part already. The other guy we traded for, Ryan Garko, got an audition of sorts. But the poor lad took a fall on his first entrance and that was it. The organization wrote him off and never looked back. All it cost was another pitching prospect, and we all know the Giants lead the world in pitching prospects, so we shouldn't be upset if we use them up like kleenex.
I know that Ryan Garko is nothing special, but he's a reasonably competent major-leaguer who doesn't cost a lot and can deliver value with the bat. He sounds like the kind of player we need a surplus of, not the kind of player we cut loose. According to Extra Baggs, Garko "didn't have nearly the impact the Giants hoped and soon fell out of favor with manager Bruce Bochy."
Great. Our team is run like a junior high cheerleading squad. I suppose all will be better when we give $25 million to Adam LaRoche.
Grant at McChronic is just as bewildered. Garko was worth something when we acquired him--he was worth exactly one pitching prospect. Apparently that pitching prospect had almost no value because the Giants aren't willing to pay Garko $2 M or so next year (he was paid $466 K this year).
The Giants traded for Freddy Sanchez, who was hurt and couldn't play. We gave away a pitching prospect for a guy that could not help us. Then we gave that same guy $12 M for the next two years. No audition at all for FSanchez--he had the part already. The other guy we traded for, Ryan Garko, got an audition of sorts. But the poor lad took a fall on his first entrance and that was it. The organization wrote him off and never looked back. All it cost was another pitching prospect, and we all know the Giants lead the world in pitching prospects, so we shouldn't be upset if we use them up like kleenex.
I know that Ryan Garko is nothing special, but he's a reasonably competent major-leaguer who doesn't cost a lot and can deliver value with the bat. He sounds like the kind of player we need a surplus of, not the kind of player we cut loose. According to Extra Baggs, Garko "didn't have nearly the impact the Giants hoped and soon fell out of favor with manager Bruce Bochy."
Great. Our team is run like a junior high cheerleading squad. I suppose all will be better when we give $25 million to Adam LaRoche.
Saturday, December 5, 2009
JV squad for you, Buster
The Brian Trust has decided that Buster Posey will start the year in AAA. Maybe. That is, most likely. In Sabespeak (via Extra Baggs): "That's our lean now. We haven't crossed that bridge yet." So, like, they are almost mostly sure, OK? I'm down with that, you know? I'm all about Veteran Savvy Clutchness and Gamerosity. And whatever Buster has, it ain't that. Hell, does he even shave? How can you be grizzled if you aren't even shaving? This time, I'm not going to knock the Brian Trust. They know what's best. They spent a couple of cases of coke money on this fella, and if they think Fresno's the place for him, then by gum so do I. Just because some hotshot 22-year old Golden Spikes winner and first-round draft pick thinks he's the shit doesn't mean he is. Who cares if this top-tier athlete with a superb pedigree wants to strut his stuff in The Show? Who does he think he is? The fookin' Six Million Dollar Man? This wet-behind-the-ears-punk don't know nothin' and the sooner he learns that the better he'll be. The nerve of that guy--building up the fans' hopes and all. Listen Mr. Junior Varsity, just because you're the best hitter in our system in the last twenty years doesn't guarantee you a job. This is a meritocracy--you have to earn your way to the bigs, Buster. And never mind what that David Pinto guy is saying.
Friday, October 16, 2009
A Modest, Although Somewhat Risky Proposal
Brian Wilson will be either arbitrated or signed to a long term deal. We all know that. His pertinent numbers for 2009 are: 38 saves, with 7 blown saves. He threw 72.1 innings in 68 games. He made a little under $500,000. He will not win the Fireman of the Year award, but was pretty good. Being a closer is coming into ball games in high pressure situations, and a good closer is not just valuable, but a must-have for a winning ball club. Good closers make a lot of money, and Brian Wilson will make a lot of money soon. So here is the proposal: Consider giving him his arbitration award, and then trading him. The success of this gambit hinges on two things that both must work out, 1) you have to find someone who needs an established closer, and 2) You have to find someone to replace him. So what do you think, is there a closer in Affeldt/Runsler/Romo that is at least as reliable at Mr. Wilson? Whom do you think would want an established closer? Chicago? Texas? What do you think he would net in return? Too much apple cart upsetting?
I'm just trying to think outside the box here. By the way, Fuck the dodgers.
I'm just trying to think outside the box here. By the way, Fuck the dodgers.
Friday, October 9, 2009
The Options
If you go back a couple of years, and to last off-season, there are three options for rebuilding the Giants. Those three options have been debated, and still exist today, because the team still needs rebuilding. Call it "improving" if you want, the options still come down to the same. They are:
HOPE
This is the option most favored, vociferously (can you be vociferous in print?) by MOC. Play the youngsters and hope for the best. I believe the quote is, "I'd rather lose with youth." The advantages of this option are that you don't give up any talent at all, and you get a really good chance to see whether or not the youngsters are actually major league talent. The downside is that, if you don't get a couple of budding stars out of the exercise, you wind up just as lousy a team as you had before, except that everyone now knows that your young players are busts.
INCREMENTALISM
This is the option that I believe that Sabean has taken. If you are a pretty good team (and in spite of all the bitching about the Giants, their record indicates that they are, overall, pretty good), you try to see if you can get better by making small additions, while not giving up too much. Here is the evidence: Garko. Renteria. Uribe. You can argue whether or not these attempts to incrementally improve the team have been successful - also, you can discuss whether or not the players have been given adequate chance (in Garko's case) to prove their worth. But the attempts have not cost the Giants a large amount of money or skill to acquire. (Again, whether they have been worth the money spent or not is another story). Freddie Sanchez is a special case. He was an attempt to incrementally improve the club, although cost a very bright prospect. For these reasons, he might be put in the final option category. But there is a mitigating factor and that is that Alderson may not have had a place to pitch on the Giants, so, it could be argued, was worth less to the Giants than to another club. Which brings us to our final option.
THE BIG MOVE
Lots and lots of folks really wanted and still want this option. Trade Matt Cain. Trade Jonathan Sanchez. Get a big bat! Sign Matt Holliday AND Jason Bay. Keep in mind that the Big Move has more potential in the off season than during the season, becasue you can make a Big Move in the free agent market as well as via trade. The problem with the Big Move is the Big Cost, either in dollars or skill. Much has been made of the Giants lack of willingness to pay for talent, in spite of ample evidence to the contrary. It would be foolish to assume that there is NO budget, that simply does not apply except maybe for the Yankees. Barry Zito may have been a foolish signing for his cost, but it indicates that the Giants are willing to offer serious dollars to the best free agent on the market (which he was at the time). Of course, having done so, maybe there is less cash in the till. A bigger problem is trading away skill. You lose Matt Cain, and you have to not only make up for his absence, you have to also get better. One way of doing this is to look at the WARP statistics. There are a couple with minor variations in how they are calculated. For WARP 1, Matt Cain is a 6. Albert Pujols leads the league with a value of 11.4. Troy Tulowitski - 6.4. Joe Mauer - let's say the Twins felt so bad about Pierzynski that they would trade us Joe Mauer for Matt Cain. Joe Mauer is a 9.5, worth only 3.5 wins more than Matt. Adrian Gonzales is valued at 8.9, less than 3 wins more than Matt. All those guys are older than Matt, and are so good that you have to believe that they have less upside. WARP is calculated based on what a player has done. Also, take Matt out, and you have to put someone in. If you do not have another pitcher on the plus side of a WARP statistic, you have to find one or else subtract a negative value. You can pretty quickly wind up in a zero sum game except with even more money unavailable for another player. Trading Matt Cain, or Jonathan Sanchez would be the height of folly. For Pujols, maybe, but I'm kind of thinking that he's not available.
Which leaves the free agent market, where I expect Brian Sabean to be active this winter - maybe successfully, maybe not. What I'm saying is that I think that Incrementalism has been, and is the right way to approach rebuilding. Yeah, some of the players have sucked in hindsight and maybe Sabean deserves a lot of blame for that. But most of our future personnel value is still here and the team has gone from sucky to pretty good ahead of schedule. No one really knows how much more we need to be in the post season. We know what we need - plate discipline, better on-base percentage, power, but the synergistic effects of a batting order can make the sum of the whole greater than its parts. I'm not defending Sabean's moves here, I'm defending his approach. We have had a pretty good chance to evaluate a number of players, and by the time next season rolls around, there may be some problems with individual youngsters solved that might indicate an improvement, and a better future, without doing anything. Now, however, we have a lot of youngsters that have not impressed. We will need to find some outside talent to supplement the club. I would much rather add small than do nothing or take a sledgehammer to the team.
HOPE
This is the option most favored, vociferously (can you be vociferous in print?) by MOC. Play the youngsters and hope for the best. I believe the quote is, "I'd rather lose with youth." The advantages of this option are that you don't give up any talent at all, and you get a really good chance to see whether or not the youngsters are actually major league talent. The downside is that, if you don't get a couple of budding stars out of the exercise, you wind up just as lousy a team as you had before, except that everyone now knows that your young players are busts.
INCREMENTALISM
This is the option that I believe that Sabean has taken. If you are a pretty good team (and in spite of all the bitching about the Giants, their record indicates that they are, overall, pretty good), you try to see if you can get better by making small additions, while not giving up too much. Here is the evidence: Garko. Renteria. Uribe. You can argue whether or not these attempts to incrementally improve the team have been successful - also, you can discuss whether or not the players have been given adequate chance (in Garko's case) to prove their worth. But the attempts have not cost the Giants a large amount of money or skill to acquire. (Again, whether they have been worth the money spent or not is another story). Freddie Sanchez is a special case. He was an attempt to incrementally improve the club, although cost a very bright prospect. For these reasons, he might be put in the final option category. But there is a mitigating factor and that is that Alderson may not have had a place to pitch on the Giants, so, it could be argued, was worth less to the Giants than to another club. Which brings us to our final option.
THE BIG MOVE
Lots and lots of folks really wanted and still want this option. Trade Matt Cain. Trade Jonathan Sanchez. Get a big bat! Sign Matt Holliday AND Jason Bay. Keep in mind that the Big Move has more potential in the off season than during the season, becasue you can make a Big Move in the free agent market as well as via trade. The problem with the Big Move is the Big Cost, either in dollars or skill. Much has been made of the Giants lack of willingness to pay for talent, in spite of ample evidence to the contrary. It would be foolish to assume that there is NO budget, that simply does not apply except maybe for the Yankees. Barry Zito may have been a foolish signing for his cost, but it indicates that the Giants are willing to offer serious dollars to the best free agent on the market (which he was at the time). Of course, having done so, maybe there is less cash in the till. A bigger problem is trading away skill. You lose Matt Cain, and you have to not only make up for his absence, you have to also get better. One way of doing this is to look at the WARP statistics. There are a couple with minor variations in how they are calculated. For WARP 1, Matt Cain is a 6. Albert Pujols leads the league with a value of 11.4. Troy Tulowitski - 6.4. Joe Mauer - let's say the Twins felt so bad about Pierzynski that they would trade us Joe Mauer for Matt Cain. Joe Mauer is a 9.5, worth only 3.5 wins more than Matt. Adrian Gonzales is valued at 8.9, less than 3 wins more than Matt. All those guys are older than Matt, and are so good that you have to believe that they have less upside. WARP is calculated based on what a player has done. Also, take Matt out, and you have to put someone in. If you do not have another pitcher on the plus side of a WARP statistic, you have to find one or else subtract a negative value. You can pretty quickly wind up in a zero sum game except with even more money unavailable for another player. Trading Matt Cain, or Jonathan Sanchez would be the height of folly. For Pujols, maybe, but I'm kind of thinking that he's not available.
Which leaves the free agent market, where I expect Brian Sabean to be active this winter - maybe successfully, maybe not. What I'm saying is that I think that Incrementalism has been, and is the right way to approach rebuilding. Yeah, some of the players have sucked in hindsight and maybe Sabean deserves a lot of blame for that. But most of our future personnel value is still here and the team has gone from sucky to pretty good ahead of schedule. No one really knows how much more we need to be in the post season. We know what we need - plate discipline, better on-base percentage, power, but the synergistic effects of a batting order can make the sum of the whole greater than its parts. I'm not defending Sabean's moves here, I'm defending his approach. We have had a pretty good chance to evaluate a number of players, and by the time next season rolls around, there may be some problems with individual youngsters solved that might indicate an improvement, and a better future, without doing anything. Now, however, we have a lot of youngsters that have not impressed. We will need to find some outside talent to supplement the club. I would much rather add small than do nothing or take a sledgehammer to the team.
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Plus ça change . . .
. . . plus c'est la même chose.
We sat down the old farts and put in the new fellers and by golly we went out and did it all over again. Losing to Wade LeBlanc, I mean. Failing to score for Matt Cain, I mean. That stuff gets old, you know.
In a weird reversion back to form, the surging Giants took their collective feet off the gas pedal and the Little Orange Go-Kart That Could screeched to an ugly halt. Matt Cain did his best Barry Zito impersonation with a laboring 107-pitch, 23 batter grind-a-thon over 5 innings. There was nothing good about this game. Well, maybe two shutout innings by MadBum, but nothing else. Let's hope it's better tomorrow--it would be nice to end on a winning note.
5 6 2 2 1 5
Game Score 51
We sat down the old farts and put in the new fellers and by golly we went out and did it all over again. Losing to Wade LeBlanc, I mean. Failing to score for Matt Cain, I mean. That stuff gets old, you know.
In a weird reversion back to form, the surging Giants took their collective feet off the gas pedal and the Little Orange Go-Kart That Could screeched to an ugly halt. Matt Cain did his best Barry Zito impersonation with a laboring 107-pitch, 23 batter grind-a-thon over 5 innings. There was nothing good about this game. Well, maybe two shutout innings by MadBum, but nothing else. Let's hope it's better tomorrow--it would be nice to end on a winning note.
5 6 2 2 1 5
Game Score 51
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Penny thoughts
In 2007, Brad Penny finished 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting (Jake Peavy got all the 1st place votes, Brandon Webb was 2nd) with a 16-4 record and a 3.03 ERA in 33 starts. Oddly, he posted a career low in K/9 (5.84) and his second-worst BB/9 (3.16), but he had a league-low 0.39 HR/9. His FIP numbers were amazingly consistent from 2003 to 2007, 3.92, 3.59, 3.64, 3.89, and 3.63. (His career mark is 4.00.) Mr. Penny fell off a cliff in 2008, starting only 17 games and giving up 112 hits, 68 runs, 13 HR, and 42 BB in 94-2/3 IP, and he spent time on the DL before the LAtriners ultimately cut him loose. After signing a $5M deal with the Bosox to start 2009, Penny was again cut loose after a disastrous 24 starts (160 hits, 89 runs, 17 HR, and 42 BB in 131-2/3 IP). Resurrected by the San Francisco Giants, he's pitched very well in our last-gasp stretch run. In 6 starts (41-2/3 IP), he's given up 31 hits (5 HR) and 13 runs while walking only 9 and striking out 20. He's sporting a 4.34 FIP, and teams are hitting .209 against him. It was 4.49 in Boston, and teams hit .301 against him. The change of scenery has done him good--the AL East is a hitter's league, and the NL West has some spacious, pitcher-friendly parks. One interesting measure is BABIP--batting average on balls in play--and it suggests that Penny is enjoying a nice run of luck as well. It is .211 in SF and was .336 in Boston. Career-wise, Penny's BABIP is .303, which pretty typical for starters (Tim is .304, Matt .277) and varies perhaps by +/- 20-30 points for most guys.
This is a long, convoluted way to pose the question "do we keep him around for 2010?" He can still bring the big heat, even though he relies on groundballs more and more these days. He'll be 32 next year and his resumé includes 105 career wins, a 4.14 ERA (104 ERA+) and a 1.344 WHIP in 275 starts, and a World Series ring. Our park and our good fielding my be the right fit. What say, mates?
This is a long, convoluted way to pose the question "do we keep him around for 2010?" He can still bring the big heat, even though he relies on groundballs more and more these days. He'll be 32 next year and his resumé includes 105 career wins, a 4.14 ERA (104 ERA+) and a 1.344 WHIP in 275 starts, and a World Series ring. Our park and our good fielding my be the right fit. What say, mates?
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Molina Musings
You have to give Benjamin Jose Molina credit, he really does embody the pluck, grit, and fortitude of the "gamer" that Nuke & LarryB so desperately want to sell us. It was quite a display of VSC last night: four hits--two big bombs--and four RBI to lead the Giants past the D-backs for the team's 84th win. Señor Slow gets a lot of grief from me for his free-swinging ways, his mediocre fielding, and his frighteningly-low .285 OBA (an "out-percentage" of 71.5!!). He's slugged .440+ the last two seasons, well over his career average (.418), and a team desperate for offense can't ignore power hitting. Only Juan Uribe (.501) and Pablito (.547)--who had a monster game himself--outrank Ol' No. 1 on the squad. I've said it before and I'll say it again: if Bengie Molina hit 7th I'd love him like a brother. But there is NO WAY this team could realistically expect to win anything with a cleanup hitter whose .307 wOBA puts him in Pedro Feliz territory. Mr. Molina puts us in a quandary, though, as we really can't expect über-prospect Buster Posey to give us 1000 innings and 500 PA next year, can we? If it were my club, I'd throw him out there, and I've said that all along. But--and it's a big but--this version of Giants is a contender. That is not something I calculated. I figured we'd field a competitive team sometime around 2011, once all the old guys were cut loose and some of the young guys matured. Buster will be 23 next season, and it may not be realistic to expect much from him. I think we'll need another catcher to split the duties, somewhat like we did with Brent Mayne and Brian Johnson back in the day. Buster, of course, could prove me wrong and pull a Matt Cain/Tim Lincecum and be ready to roll as soon as he suits up, but that's not the most common scenario for ballplayers, especially in a demanding position like catcher. Bengie didn't get a full-time gig until he was 25, for example. The Giants love Bengie, and will want to lure him back, but will be reluctant (I hope) to give him anything more than a 1-year or 1-year-with-option deal. I don't see Molina wanting to take less or accept a reduced role (and puh-leeeze, no more talk of him "mentoring" Buster--why would a ballplayer cut his own throat by grooming his replacement?). I'm thoroughly ready to say "so long, thanks for the memories" to Molina, and I hope we realize that a 35-year old is not a sound investment. But we will need to find a capable day-to-day guy if Posey isn't ready for prime time. Take a look at the list of free agents and tell me what you think.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Saving your worst for last
As it stands now, Matt Cain will get two more starts--Sunday at home against the Cubs, and the following Saturday, the penultimate game of the season, in San Diego. Tonight was the 31st time he took the hill for the Giants this season, and only the third time he's failed to go six innings. Everything seemed fine in the first, as Matt started the game with a 12-pitch, three-up-three-down inning (a strikeout and two groundouts). After his first career triple in the top of the second that drove in two to take a 3-0 lead, everything fell apart. A nightmarish batting-practice session ensued, and Cain left the game having allowed SEVEN earned runs. He faced 15 batters and only managed 7 outs. Matt has had his share of poor outings, especially late in the season, but this was something else entirely. It may be one of those random "shit happens" events that happens to everyone. Or it may be a sign that Cain has hit the wall this year--fatigue, or a nascent injury, perhaps. Whatever, he's running on fumes at this point, and it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for Ol' Boch to think about mixing things up. He's got a roster full of lean and hungry types, and it seems like time to use them. Would it kill us to give Madison Bumgarner another start? Joe Martinez? How about sitting down Molina and giving Posey a few games behind the plate? I don't think we are playing for much but pride anymore, and protecting next year's investment (Cain turns 25 in October and is signed through 2010) might be more prudent than pretending to be in a pennant race. Of course, he might be fine, and pitch brilliantly in his next two (meaningless) starts. But the whole staff has just gone-end-to-end with some ugly, ugly work, and after almost six months of a long, hard, slog with no help from the bats or the brain trust, it isn't all that surprising there would be a drop-off. Cain's had a great year, but his mojo seems to be slipping away here at the bitter end. Then again, you don't get anywhere in the bigs if you aren't man enough to take your lumps. If Cain's in a slump--just in a slump, mind you--he's a big boy and he'll have to ride it out all the way. (If he has some physical issue, that's another matter.) It might spoil his pretty numbers a bit, but that's just life in the big leagues, isn't it?
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