Spring is Here

Baseball had its earliest opening day ever with the Mariners defeating the Athletics 9-7 in the Tokyo Dome. The vernal equinox occurs at 2:58 p.m. PDT today, but spring really starts when the games count. Well, that one counts, and they play another one before returning home and resuming the exhibition schedule (A's have three vs. Giants starting Sunday). Cory Gearrin and Hunter Strickland each threw a scoreless inning for Seattle.

The Giants see the Indians tonight and the Cubs tomorrow afternoon, with a split squad matchup against the Royals and Rockies Friday. Then it is the Diamondbacks on Saturday before the Oakland series. The real thing is only a-week-and-a-day away: Thursday the 28th in San Diego!

I was hoping there would be more roster cuts by now but it seems that waiting until the very last minute is the new m.o. and I guess I can't complain about that. Roster cuts give me something to write about. I'm ready for the 2019 season even if the team isn't.

--M.C.

The Rotation

Giants manager Bruce Bochy has reportedly named sophomore Dereck Rodriguez as one of his five starters. Of course Boch hedges his bets:

“Right now, he’s part of this rotation,” manager Bruce Bochy said following the Giants’ 8-0 loss to the Cubs on Saturday. “That’s where he stands. He’s throwing the ball well.” (I added the italics!)

That's one of those definite 'maybes' that managers are good at. That's fine. You have to win ballgames and thus you have to use the players who are performing. And D-Rod's performance last season was one of the few highlights, and so far this spring he isn't doing anything to discourage the brass. That likely bumps Andrew Suarez who still has three options left. A crowded 'pen means he'll start the season in AAA, probably alongside Tyler Beede, the 2014 first-round pick who has impressed everyone so far with a rebuilt repertoire.

Obviously Madison Bumgarner is the centerpiece of the 2019 rotation. Two injury-shortened seasons interrupted a run of six straight 200+ IP campaigns, and his two-year peak (2015-2016) was worth 10 WAR. Lots of questions are buzzing around the big lefty what with dropping fastball velocity, reduced break on the curve, and an increased walk rate, but he's not yet 30 (that happens in August) and ought to be able to return to form. If he stays healthy I should think we have a good chance of seeing a rejuvenated MadBum. Will they trade him? Only if they are in last place by the deadline. Aging players and analytics are one thing--fans in the seats are another. I think the Giants would love to keep him and will try to if he has a strong year. At the very least they can make him a qualifying offer in the off-season and get compensation if he bolts. Publicly Bumgarner has said he wants to stay, I believe him, and I hope he can.

The rest of the group seems pretty easy: Derek Holland, Jeff Samardzija, and Drew Pomeranz. With Chris Stratton in the wings (swing man in the 'pen?), who is out of options, and Ty Blach also down in AAA (along with Jose Lopez and Merandy Gonzalez), the Giants have some flexibility. Samardzija's main value has been his durability and long outings, coming off injury maybe they'll use him a little less and try to maintain his effectiveness with some shorter stints (it looks like a strong bullpen this year). The Dodgers only used Rich Hill for 25 starts in each of the last two seasons, for example, and that kept him fresh. Even Clayton Kershaw maxes out under 180 IP these days. We may see that with Pomeranz, who was a 6+ WAR pitcher in 2016-2017, his career high is 173-2/3. Holland made 30 starts last year, I'll take the under on that one.

The projection systems aren't kind to the Giants, but I think this bunch has a lot of talent and if they are used creatively they could be strong all season. I mentioned the Dodgers because Farhan Zaidi is much associated with the revolving-door rotation that LA has employed lately. I can't argue with it. The Giants had that big-arm innings-eating style way back in 2016 with Johnny Cueto joining Bum and Smardj in the 200+ club, but them days is past.

I know this post is about the starters, but keep an eye on 2018's phenom Reyes Moronta. This guy is fun to watch and has made it clear he wants to be a closer. Well, 79 whiffs out of 262 batters (30%) ought to get you some notice!

--M.C.

On the field and off

Some things don't change. The Giants will go with infield stalwarts Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford at first base and shortstop. Those guys have been around for awhile. Joe Panik still looks like the second baseman at this point, that's another familiar face. And of course Buster Posey will be the catcher. He's been there (mostly) full-time since 2010! The only new old face is Evan Longoria who debuted for the Giants last year at third base, and his 2018 was pretty forgettable, so perhaps to casual fans he'll feel like a new face. Pablo Sandoval, who came up with the Giants in 2008, will likely be the utility man (alongside newcomer Yangervis Solarte). My point is that those are the guys in uniform and under contract and if the team is going to win ballgames the infield will have to play at or near their career norms. They haven't done that lately, what with aging and injury and bad luck and all that messy stuff.

Speaking of messy stuff, the Giants may be looking down the road at even bigger changes. Larry Baer has stepped aside, at this point described as "personal time away from the Giants," but there are rumblings he'll eventually have to be replaced. He doesn't own the team, but he is the public face of the ownership group, and domestic ugliness isn't just bad, it's bad for business.

“Mr. Baer has acknowledged that his behavior was unacceptable, apologized to the organization and is committed to taking steps to make sure that this never happens again. He has also requested, and the Board has accepted, his request to take personal time away from the Giants beginning today. The Board has asked the Giants executive team to manage the day to day operations of the Club during this period, reporting directly to the Board.

“As leaders in the community, we at the Giants hold ourselves to the highest standards and those standards will guide how we consider this matter moving forward.”

I took this from Baggs' story on The Athletic (paywall) although the Giants website has it as well. That sounds a lot like the first step in a dismissal, but I don't really know. We'll see how it plays out.

In the meantime they are still playing baseball. I've been avoiding a post about the pitching staff because there are too many damn arms and I keep feeling like some of the veterans (bullpen, especially) will be traded before the final roster shakeout. Perhaps with the CEO on the outs some of the potential transactions will be delayed or shelved. Again, I don't know. Larry Baer made a stinkin' mess for himself and the organization, we'll see how the team copes. As for Mr. Baer, he got caught acting like an asshole, his task is something much bigger, I should think.

--M.C.

The Outfield

The Giants made a push for outfielder Bryce Harper that ultimately came up short. According to Andrew Baggarly's article on The Athletic (behind a paywall), it was Farhan Zaidi who led the charge and not Larry Baer & the Ownership Group. All that tells me is FZ is willing to go after talent, be it Rule V draftees or free agency. Guess what? That's good! You want your ballclub to be ready to sign the players they need, don't you? I'm willing to give our new PoBO (he's not a GM, but a President of Baseball Operations) a fair chance and that means I'm not going to judge him after a mere four months or so on the job. I expected the Giants NOT to pursue high-dollar free agents (I note they stayed away from Manny Machado) so the fact that they took a chance on Harper means I don't really know what their roster-building strategy is. And I'm OK with that. I also think it means I was right and they have heaps o'money and they'll cough up the big bucks when they think they need to.

So, where do we stand? The outfield is still a big question mark. I know they really want Steven Duggar to shine and take over CF and the leadoff spot. But they are hedging their bets by signing Cameron Maybin. I could see a platoon there, but I also think Maybin has his sights on a full-time job. The Giants generally treat players well and I imagine that the veterans on minor-league deals will be traded if they don't make the 25-man roster (or don't get assurances about playing time). Gerardo Parra is in the same situation as Maybin, he probably expects to win a corner OF job since he's competing with borderline candidates. Mac Williamson is at that fish-or-cut-bait point in his career, and with no options left I suppose he'll be traded or DFA'd if he doesn't make the grade. The Giants would love to see him swing a major-league power bat and I hope he can do that. Rule V man Drew Ferguson would seem to have an inside track as a fifth outfielder, but that's only because they'd have to give him back to the Astros if he fails to make the big-league team. But I don't know--maybe they are willing to eat that cost.

Chris Shaw and Austin Slater have options left, as do NRIs John Andreoli, Mike Gerber, and Anthony Garcia. Henry Ramos, the older brother of hot prospect Heliot Ramos, was signed as a free agent, as was Craig Gentry. I'm not sure anyone else in camp has a legitimate shot to open the season with the big club. That leads me to believe a trade is coming. The list of remaining free agent OFs is not too encouraging. With the surplus of relief pitchers--some of whom are established late-inning guys--it seems almost too obvious that's who will get moved. Then again I did not see the Harper push coming so it's anybody's guess what our PoBO has up his sleeve.

Madison Bumgarner has his second spring start this afternoon. Both Chris Stratton and Jeff Samardzija threw well in their recent outings--all positive starting pitcher news is good news as far as I'm concerned! I'm wondering when we get to see Drew Pomeranz again, he pitched two innings on Monday.

--M.C.


p.s. Melissa Lockard at The Athletic says to keep an eye on Jacob Heyward (Jason's younger brother), Aaron Bond, and Malique Ziegler as up-and-comers in the Giants system. All are OFs and projected for A, A+, or AA this season.

p.p.s. The game is tonight, and televised (NBC-Bay Area).

p.p.p.s. Ugly shit about Larry Baer (https://www.tmz.com/2019/03/01/larry-baer-giants-san-fransico-ceo-wife-altercation/) just popped up in the Twitter feed.

Who's Running the Show?

I honestly don't know.  We hired a guy, Farhan Zaidi, as President of Baseball Operations.  He was hired because he was an "analytics" guy.  And "analytics" tells us that long-term, expensive contracts are not a very productive way to build a winning ball club.  Because of that, we're not seeing so many of them and players and agents are whining about collusion.  Farhan Zaidi has had a big role in building a winning ball club, with that blue-ish team down in LA.  That team may be nearly unmentionable to Giants fans, but you have to admit, they have done a good job of winning.  Like, in the playoffs each of the past 6 years, in the world series the past 2.  I know, they haven't won it all, but they have been in a position to do so, unlike the Giants lately.

One of the reasons the Giants went out and got a shiny, new President of Baseball Operations, was that our previous GM, Bobby Evans, signed a number of players to long-term contracts that have not been very productive, and have certainly not made the Giants into a winning team.  Mark Melancon is a case in point, having pitched a total of 69 innings in his 2 years of service as a closer for $15.5 million per year.  You are, of course, familiar with others.  Injuries are part of it, perhaps a big part, but the fact is, the Giants have not been a competitive team the past couple of years.

So here we are, and word is that the Giants are offering Bryce Harper, a guy who's stats are the poorest in Oracle nee PhoneCo of any major league stadium, a long-term contract of, maybe, more than 10 years and more than $300 million.  How new is this "new direction"?  How "analytical" is this long-term deal?

This is today's bit from MLBTraderumors.com on the Bryce Harper shitshow.  I don't know what Bob Nightengale knows.  I honestly don't understand what the Giants are doing.  I don't know if Farhan Zaidi is running the team or not.

Spring Training Notes

Tomorrow is the first spring game, and here's the lineup:

via Kerry Crowley/twitter

--M.C.

Bochy to Retire

Bruce Bochy announced today that this will be his final season as a manager. That ends much of the speculation surrounding him, don't you think? He turns 64 in April and 2019 will be his 25th as a big-league skipper. He'll have over 4000 games managed by the end of this year and only seven other guys have done that: Connie Mack, Tony LaRussa, John McGraw, Bobby Cox, Bucky Harris, Joe Torre, and Sparky Anderson. That's some remarkable company! Only ten guys have three (or more) World Series rings as a manager: Casey Stengel, Joe McCarthy, Mack, Torre, Walter Alston, LaRussa, McGraw, Anderson, Miller Huggins, and Boch. Again, not a bad bunch to be a part of.

--M.C.


p.s. There's a season's worth of chances to say it, but I should have said it first thing: THANKS, BOCH!!