Cool Giants

The Giants signed flame-throwing Jordan Hicks on the 12th of January. It looked like things were heating up. Alas, it has since been quiet on the player acquisition front. There have been a few smaller moves, at least one that's intriguing, but nothing addressing the team's weak spots. The Giants picked up a 26-year old righty named Tommy Romero who was once a notable prospect in the Rays system. His MLB time is scant (8-1/3 IP, 44 TBF) but scary (9 BB, 7 HR). Like I said, intriguing. They added Cooper Hummel, a switch-hitting left-fielder who also catches. He's the backup for Blake Sabol, I suppose. Does this put Joey Bart on the trade block? MLBTR thinks so. (They also think teams are "showing interest" in Brandon Crawford.)

While Zaidian tinkering around the edges of the roster is necessary, it doesn't fill the fans with enthusiasm. They need another starter. They need another infielder—a shortstop, actually. Don't you think? And it wouldn't hurt to add a bat, just to give the fans something to get excited about. J.D. Davis is the only arb-eligible player who is unsigned. I wonder if that's just a small sticking point in negotiations as the Giants usually wrap all that stuff up early. If they are really interested in Matt Chapman, as has been reported all off-season, that would make Davis redundant. Are they positioning themselves for a trade? Davis led the team in games (144), plate appearances (546), strikeouts (152), and grounding into double plays (16). His .248/.325/.413 is solidly league average (104 wRC+). FanGraphs credited him with good defense and 2.2 fWAR while Baseball-Reference knocked his glove and pegged him at 0.9 bWAR. Chapman is a slight hitting upgrade but is usually rated very high for his fielding. Both men turn 31 in April.

I suppose I'll leave the strategic thinking to the team brass, after all they get paid to do it. This blogging stuff is strictly amateur. I've been away from my desk and unable to write but there's been nothing noteworthy so I didn't miss anything. We all saw the Dusty Baker news. The Giants have this unfortunate image of the team nobody wants to play for. It's bullshit of course, just media jive, but you have to deal with it. Dusty is well-loved all over the game and he puts a welcoming face on the Giants brand. That'll help.

The calendar says February 15th for the first Pitchers & Catchers workout and February 20th for the first Full Squad workout. The first Spring Game is on the 24th. I'm ready for some baseball, how about you?

--M.C.

Big Heat

Jordan Hicks throws as hard as anyone in baseball. He averages just over 100 mph on both his four-seam fastball (which has hit 105!) and his bread-and-butter, a sinking two-seamer. He also has an 86-mph slider. His career 60% ground ball rate is Webb-like. It's easy to see why the Giants are interested, and in fact they signed him to a four-year, $44M deal.

Hicks has logged only 243 innings in 212 games over five seasons with the Cardinals and Blue Jays. He made eight starts in 2022 but has otherwise been a reliever. He turned 27 in September. Like a lot of flamethrowers he walks a lot of guys and is an injury risk. He had TJS in 2019.

Oh, but that talent! I think that's what this deal is all about. Reaching free agency at a relatively young age makes Hicks a better-than-average risk. The peak years for most ballplayers are ages 26-29 or thereabouts. The Giants see starter potential and want to put him in the rotation.

I was reading something on Tom Tango's blog about predictive wOBA (I know, pretty nerdy stuff), and he introduced the column with this tidbit:

Hitting a 450 foot HR is very indicative of a batter's talent. It shows that he has raw power and it shows that he can really put the barrel on the ball. Hitting a 110 mph high popup to an outfielder for an easy out is also a good indication of a batter's talent. It shows that he has raw power and that a small mistiming is what kept him from hitting a 450 foot HR.

A bloop hit is a better outcome for the team than a pop-out, but a lucky Texas-leaguer doesn't tell you anything about the batter's talent. The major-league pop-up does.

I think the same logic applies to this deal. Hicks has some serious pitching talent. Maybe the outcomes haven't been there, but all the indicators are certainly there. A relatively modest deal for a young major-league arm with lots of upside is OK by me. The rotation is still full of question marks after Logan Webb, but at least the pool of possible answers is getting bigger. I would still like to see them go after Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, and I keep wondering about shortstop, but at least the Hicks signing is something to talk about.

--M.C.

Hey, Robbie Ray

The Giants make their first move of the new year by trading for Seattle lefty Robbie Ray. Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani go to the Mariners.

It's no secret that the Giants need starting pitching. Ray was the AL Cy Young awardee in 2021 and has delivered a mostly strong body of work over his ten seasons. He's thrown 1228 innings in 226 games (222 starts) with excellent strikeout numbers (1505 total, 11 K/9, 28.9%). Lifetime he sports a 3.96 ERA and 4.07 FIP. He made one start last year before a flexor strain (followed by Tommy John surgery) ended his season.

It's an interesting risk for the Giants. Ray is 32 and missed a lot of playing time in 2020 as well. He's signed (@$25M/yr.) through 2026. They relieved themselves of some salary by sending away Haniger ($20M) and DeSclafani ($12M). The Giants are sending cash ($3M) to the Mariners as well. If Ray is healthy he will be a solid addition. Unfortunately I'm not clear on when Ray will be available to pitch--recovery from TJS takes a long time. Alex Cobb will open the season on the IL and the other arms after ace Logan Webb are unproven rookies (Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn, Tristan Beck).

I'm glad to see the transaction wire heating up in San Francisco. I hope they will continue to pursue another starter, and they'll have to do something about shortstop, don't you think?

Meanwhile, welcome to the Giants, Robbie Ray!

--M.C.

One Billion Dollars

With the signing of NPB super-ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12 yrs, $325M) the LA Dodgers have purchased the services of the two best Japanese ballplayers on the planet. One of them is arguably already the best player in MLB. Shohei Ohtani's $700M takes the total outlay to over one billion dollars. If you laid one billion dollar bills end-to-end (a bill is about six inches in length) they would stretch 500,000,000 feet or about 95,000 miles or nearly four trips around the earth.

That's a lot of scratch!

MLB annual revenue is about $10B, and the total value of all 30 franchises is about $70B. TV rights for MLB games come in at a little under $2B annually. According to Forbes the Giants are in the top tier of wealthy clubs, rating fifth with a $3.7B valuation. The Yankees top the list ($7.1B), followed by the Dodgers( $4.8B), Red Sox ($4.5B), and Cubs ($4.1B). The hapless and unfortunate A's rate 29th ($1.1B) and the Marlins get the honor of the bottom spot ($1B).

The Giants have a lot of payroll flexibility if you assume that ownership is indeed willing to spend money. Only Logan Webb and Jung Hoo Lee have long-term deals. Mitch Haniger, Wilmer Flores, and Taylor Rogers are signed through 2025 and are free agents after that. FNG catcher Tom Murphy is signed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. The Giants have a club option on reliever Luke Jackson for 2025. That's it. Everyone else is either a free agent after the 2024 season or is still under team control (or in their arb-years).

This year's payroll is about $160M meaning they have about $47M to spend without topping the luxury tax threshold ($237M).

The Giants need a starter. I'm hoping they will still pursue Shoto Imagana. Also both Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are available. The Giants will need a shortstop. They'll have to work the trade market to upgrade at that position. I think they will have to trade some of their young pitching talent to make a meaningful improvement.

I really like the Lee signing but it won't be enough to compete for the Western Division title. They've still got some work to do if they want to win 90+ games.

Merry Christmas, everyone! Thanks for reading. I hope we'll have some fun news to talk about before January rolls around.

--M.C.

Backstops

The Giants signed a veteran free-agent catcher to a two-year deal with an option for a third. His name is Tom Murphy and he has just over a thousand plate appearances in the bigs (eight seasons) and over two thousand innings (261 games) behind the plate. Most recently he slashed .290/.335/.538 in 47 games (159 PA) with the Seattle Mariners. He's got some pop and is clearly going to back up youngster Patrick Bailey, the putative starter.

Blake Sabol, after surviving his rookie season and Rule 5 status, seems like the obvious backup to that tandem. Where does that leave Joey Bart? He can't stay in AAA forever. He has no options remaining either, while Sabol's three are still intact.

There's a rumor that the Giants are willing to deal some of their young arms. Will they include Joey Bart in such a deal? I'd rather they sign Shoto Imanaga or Yoshinobu Yamamoto but if they can pull off a trade for someone like Framber Valdez I won't complain. There's also talk of a reunion with Sean Manaea.

Regardless, the catcher position seems to be in good shape. The Giants have a trio of young players and added a seasoned, part-time slugger to the mix. We all know FZ likes to make lots of moves around the margins that aren't exciting but are necessary. They also added a minor-league righty named Devin Sweet to the 40-man roster.

--M.C.

Who is Lee?

Jung Hoo Lee is a left-handed outfielder from Korea. He's played for the Kiwoom/Nexen Heroes of the KBO for the past seven seasons. He's known for his glove and is a high-average/high-OBP hitter. His career line is .340/.407/.491 (884 G, 3947 PA) and he turns 26 in August.

The Giants signed Lee to a six-year, $113M deal. That should beef up the outfield!

Wikipedia lists him as Jung-hoo Lee but all the baseball sites list him as Jung Hoo Lee. I suppose rendering Korean names into American English could have a few quirks. His father is a famous Korean ballplayer as well.

This is all very exciting. Let's strike while the iron is hot! Sign Yamamoto!

--M.C.

Oh, it figures

Shohei Ohtani goes to the Los Angeles Dodgers where everyone expected him to go. The rumor about him signing in Toronto was very convincing, and it seemed like a bold move for him, but he took the safe path. (I-5 in this case.) It's a monster deal: $700 million for 10 years.

It figures. The Dodgers have the capital to blow away the competition, and that they did. The projections all said it would take a ten-year deal but they also settled on $500M. That narrowed the field to a handful of teams but LA would have none of it and simply went "all-in" to chase them away. It was Godzilla vs. a Bunch of Bambis at that point.

I was not expecting the Giants to sign Ohtani. The only thing I wanted for Christmas was that he wouldn't sign with LA. I should have expected the Dodgers to get their man all along, but I suppose I had blocked it out in hope of a better outcome.

Time for the Giants to start signing some new players, don't you think?

--M.C.