Monday, October 1, 2007

Barry Zito, 6-and-3 man

33 starts at 6 IP/start is 198 IP, 33 starts at 3 ER/start is 99 ER. Our Billion Dollar Boy, Barry Zito, managed 196-2/3. With an actual total of 99 ER this season, his ERA is 4.53. That makes him officially a 6-and-3 man. 6 IP and 3 ER per start. A quick calculation (6/3 = 9/x) gives us a 4.50 expected ERA for a 6-and-3 man. Lifetime, with 255 starts, 1627 IP, and 663 ER, he comes out a 6-1/3 man (6.38 IP/start) with 2.6 ER/start (3.67 ERA). Suffice to say he had a shitty year by his standards. I want a 7-and-3 man! I do, really. It makes it a lot easier on your bullpen if you only need a set-up man and a closer. Sure, the 8th could involve a lefty-righty thing, so you might need 3 guys to finish it out, but I'm not quibbling. I don't expect Mr. 6-1/3 to suddenly change to Mr. 7 IP, but it would be nice if Mr. 6-and-3 could try to be Mr. 6-and-2. Throw a few more 6-and-2's in the mix, with an occasional 7 or 8 with only 2 or 3 (like yesterday), and you have a guy who wins more than he loses. Even on our team. Barry Zito's lifetime win percentage is .598--in 33 starts he should get 19 wins! OK, OK, I'll throw in 9 NDs, and get 14 wins with that pct. Whaddya say, big fella, can ya get us 14 next year?

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