Monday, October 1, 2007
Barry Zito, 6-and-3 man
Post author:
M.C. O'Connor
33 starts at 6 IP/start is 198 IP, 33 starts at 3 ER/start is 99 ER.  Our Billion Dollar Boy, Barry Zito, managed 196-2/3.  With an actual total of 99 ER this season, his ERA is 4.53.  That makes him officially a 6-and-3 man.  6 IP and 3 ER per start.  A quick calculation (6/3 = 9/x) gives us a 4.50 expected ERA for a 6-and-3 man.  Lifetime, with 255 starts, 1627 IP, and 663 ER, he comes out a 6-1/3 man (6.38 IP/start) with 2.6 ER/start (3.67 ERA).  Suffice to say he had a shitty year by his standards.  I want a 7-and-3 man!  I do, really.  It makes it a lot easier on your bullpen if you only need a set-up man and a closer.  Sure, the 8th could involve a lefty-righty thing, so you might need 3 guys to finish it out, but I'm not quibbling.  I don't expect Mr. 6-1/3 to suddenly change to Mr. 7 IP, but it would be nice if Mr. 6-and-3 could try to be Mr. 6-and-2.  Throw a few more 6-and-2's in the mix, with an occasional 7 or 8 with only 2 or 3 (like yesterday), and you have a guy who wins more than he loses.  Even on our team.  Barry Zito's lifetime win percentage is .598--in 33 starts he should get 19 wins!  OK, OK, I'll throw in 9 NDs, and get 14 wins with that pct.  Whaddya say, big fella, can ya get us 14 next year?
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