Sunday, July 26, 2015

Duffy Delivers, Giants Sweep

Another tense contest in San Francisco and another one-run victory for the surging Giants who are now only a game back of the Dodgers. Tim Hudson hung on for dear life and made it through five with a lead that held up thanks to some great work from George Kontos and Javier Lopez. We even got to see the slick lefty lay down a bunt for the first time in more than a decade (it was only his 13th career plate appearance). Santiago Casilla looked a little shaky out there, again, today he was helped out by a caught stealing on a weird play, I suppose he'll just have to work out the kinks and find that lost command. Jeremy Affeldt has that "I need an oil change" look as well, let's hope he can find his groove soon. Otherwise it was the young stud at the hot corner who supplied the thump, launching a two-run blast to left-center and roping a run-scoring single to right in his first two at-bats. He had three RBI in the 4-3 win.

The Milwaukee Brewers come to town for three starting tomorrow night. Chris Heston, Matt Cain, and Jake Peavy.




carmot said...

Duffy is legit. He's doing great things. Seriously. It's awesome. And Posey is doing much great work, too. Wow.

Heston tomorrow. I'm getting so psyched up for Heston starts these days. I'm not sure if everybody is noticing just how incredible he's been. Anyways...

I create a form of 'reverse stats' for pitchers, just a nice visual reference for at-a-glance comps. 660 PA is like a full season for a batter. So, I break down a pitcher's stats into 660 PA. I can see what 'an average hitter' (compiled from ALL batters faced) would do in a full season against said pitcher. Most of these pitchers have at least 400-500+ TBF already, so it's not a small sample size to project up to 660 PA.

Heston is amazing.

Low HR total (8).
Greinke 9, Zimmermann/Quintana 12, Price 13, Cueto/Lincecum 14, Hamels 15, Scherzer/Samardzija 16, Bumgarner 17, Leake 18, Vogelsong 21/Hudson 21.

Induces double plays (26).
Hudson 24, Samardzija 17, Leake/Quintana/Lincecum 16, Vogelsong 15, Price 14, Cueto/Zimm 13, Greinke 12, Bumgarner 10, Scherzer 2.

-- Heston has a lower RBI total than many (like Zimmermann and Hamels)
-- Excellent SB/CS rate (3 SB/5 CS = 33.3% SB against)
-- 4.04 BF/IP (tied w/ Price, better than Bumgarner/Hamels/Leake/Samardzija)
-- .653 OPS against (better than many like Zimmermann & Samardzija)
-- .295 wOBA against also puts him among some elite pitching company.
-- Full total bases given up (Total Bases + things like walks, steals, HBP), even w/ Price (better than Bum/Zimm/Hamels/Leake/Samardzija)

Whoa. We see a pattern here?
Heston is pitching up to the class of Hamels, Bumgarner, Zimmermann, Samardzija, and Price. It's a joy to behold. I might detail this out (even more? Yikes!) in a post tomorrow- if I have time. Cheers.

M.C. O'Connor said...

I like it!! More! More!

Where would our boys be without Hest-o? He's been a beast, not just passing--with flying colors--the eye test, but the results as well!

Ron said...

Of course, it would be great to see the Giants make some sort of splashy, yet responsible, move at the deadline (if so, I vote for Corey Kluber), but I have a feeling that it will be a more subtle deal (think Lopez, Affeldt a la 2010). Now that Pence is back, the Roster is pretty balanced - with just a few exceptions, not outstanding top-to-bottom, but very solid everywhere. It's a good formula, but I hope that we can win the division, not just get into that crap-shoot game again (against Pittsburgh again, most likely). So, a little tweak to add experience / depth would be a good thing, & there are never enough solid Relief Pitchers.

Brother Bob said...

Oh and BTW Buster matter-of-factly went 4 for 4 and made 2 great throws for outs. Not only is he now an MVP contender (still way behind Goldschmidt) the way everyone normally talks about him, he might as well start posing for his HOF bust.
What I want is another lefty starter. Get Hamels if possible. I suppose his price just went up. I'd settle for Price. Is Sale for sale?

Ron said...

Hamels & Price are very high-priced 100% rentals. Plus, I don't trust Hamels to maintain consistent effectiveness. Kluber is signed for awhile, but may be available.

carmot said...

Thanks, M.C. Hesto is doing great. I remember being so frustrated when he got D'edFA in 2013. But there's no way I ever imagined he'd be pitching like an elite #2! Just, wow. There are sure to be adjustments (by both him and by batters). But I love what he brings.

Ron, I do appreciate how you think. Dream big. Dream GIANT! Alas, I think Corey Kluber is about as un-gettable as Chris Sale. (Sorry, Brother Bob). Go big. I mean, that's the direction I like. Be ambitious. I figure Salazar just *might* be acquirable. Eat the contract of either Swisher or Bourn. CLE could even use Duvall in the package, we definitely could match up for a trade.

If you're thinking of a reliever... I know everybody has Kimbrel, Chapman, and/or Papelbon on their collective minds. But I've really liked Boxberger ever since he was with SD. And Jake McGee is one of the best closers not many on the left coast hear about. And a lefty! I still wish we could've gotten Matt Moore while he was rehabbing from TJS last winter. Looks like he's still struggling to re-gain his form. But I'd buy while his value is low and bet on him for the next few years. A budget-strapped team like TB doesn't always have that luxury.

Yeah, I wanna see us take the NL West, too. Might require 91 wins to get a Wild Card. Yikes. What if we had to play a tie-breaker elimination game (at 90 wins) just to get to the Wild Card elimination game? Who the heck starts the playoff series for us if we'd burned Bumgarner and Heston already? Uhhhh...

Hope Price is traded so he doesn't get a Q.O. This offseason would be great to get him. But he's going to have lots of suitors and be pric... expensive.

JC Parsons said...

Thanks for the cool Heston stats. He is probably our pitching MVP so far. One of my favorite things about him is that he is a damn good hitter. Not MadBum good but almost. Lately our pitchers have gotten some big hits, especially cool during interleague action.

It is unlikely we are about to do a big trade or anything at all, except pickup some mid reliever. That is a good thing cuz it means we have no glaring holes. The guys we have are very capable of putting it all together. Once Aoki is back we have all our bullets, save Susac ( and with Buster doing an MVP thing, don't look for any major time contribution from a backup ). I'm definitely in the camp of sitting Blanco. He has been great but Pagan looks like he is finally coming around. Gregor is a perfect late entry defense guy, pinch runner, designated bunter and ok lefty pinch hitter. That is an important weapon. Having a lineup with BCraw batting 8 is ridiculously impressive.

I don't know which pitchers we are targeting. Any one have any suggestions? That side winder righty guy already got grabbed by the Cards. I feel like they are already gearing up to faces in the playoffs. That guy was bought just to get Posey and Pence out. The Cards are scary good and already pretty much set for post season action.

JC Parsons said...

Hamels is not a rental. He has a contract for a year or two

Thanks for the specific reliever ideas. We must have been writing at the same time!

Ron said...

I happen to think that Tyler Clippard would be quite lovely to obtain.

Ron said...

Kluber fits our profile of getting burly Starters from the southeastern United States - it's a wonder that we didn't draft him in the first place. He has it all covered: born in AL, High School in TX, College in FL. Plus, he has a cool nickname (KluBot).

M.C. O'Connor said...

Pagan looks a lot better. He's swinging the bat with more authority and seems to have a better range of motion. He must be getting healthier. I still think Blanco is so superior with the glove that he has to get major playing time in CF, and as far as offense goes, it's a wash. There was a time when Pagan could hit for power, and was a clearly a better hitter, but at age 34 he may be on his last legs. It's a nice problem to have with Aoki coming back!

The Giants are pretty solid overall, I don't expect a major splash. Maybe a guy to upgrade the Adrianza/Arias spot. Kluber has a really team-friendly deal in Cleveland (he's signed through 2020), I can't see them moving him without serious compensation. Looks like Clippard is going to the Mets. I think a bullpen arm is possible, but not Kimbrel or Chapman, the Giants like their minor-leaguers and will be loath to part with them. And the Giants are an old team, despite the young infield. It's time to get more young arms into the pipeline for 2016 and beyond. I don't see the team improving by adding aging soon-to-be free agents. As much as I like Cole Hamels, I think the Phillies will ask for pieces the Giants will want to keep.