Wednesday, February 19, 2020

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Craig Edwards has a piece on FanGraphs covering projected 2020 team payrolls. I'm stealing a graph from there:



The Giants have the 11th-highest payroll. In 2019 it was 9th, in 2018 it was 3rd, and in 2017 it was the 4th-highest. The last time the Giants were below the top ten was in 2010 when they had the 11th-highest payroll. Check out the history here.

As far as off-season spending goes, the Giants (approximate) outlay of $30M ranks tenth. It doesn't seem like they've spent that much, but if you break it down (Cozart $13M, Gausman $9M, Flores $3M, Pence $3M, etc.) you can see it. Again, check Cot's Contracts for details.

The point of all this is the next number. How much did the Giants payroll drop from last season? Roughly $20M, which is the 6th-largest dip. Only the Red Sox, Mariners, Cubs, Indians, and Brewers have seen bigger drops. The Edwards article has the graphs if you need a visual.

The Giants are looking for an even bigger drop next season. Only Posey, Cueto, Belt, Crawford, Longoria, and FNG Wilmer Flores are under contract for 2021. That's $95M committed, $60M less than the (roughly) $150+M projected for 2020.

The Dodgers were able to pull off the Mookie Betts deal because they had both a surplus of talent and payroll space. They will exceed the CBT threshold (I should just say "salary cap") this year but have about $100M coming off the books for 2021 which will give them the ability to sign Betts for the long-term. The Giants want to get to that place. They want to have the payroll space ("flexibility" in front-office jargon) to go after big free agents. But talent is still a problem. There is a big talent gap between the Giants and their rivals. LA can trade away prospects and good players and still have a formidable team and a deep farm system. The Giants are re-stocking their system of course but it's not like the rest of the NL West teams are sitting on their arses!

--M.C.

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