Sunday, February 2, 2020

Giants pitcher WAR

From 2007 to 2012 Matt Cain racked up 26 bWAR, or about 4.3 bWAR per season. FanGraphs rates the same period 23 WAR, or 3.8 fWAR per season. I think we can safely say Matt Cain embodied the 4-WAR pitcher during that span. Roughly, a 5-WAR pitcher is an All-Star. Matty's 6.1 in 2009 was his bWAR peak, his 4.6 in 2011 was his fWAR peak.

Madison Bumgarner, from 2013 to 2017, was worth 16-18 WAR or about 4.0-4.5 per season.

Tim Lincecum's two Cy Young seasons, 2008 and 2009, are rated 7.8 and 7.4 bWAR and 7.1 and 7.6 fWAR. When you get to 6+ WAR you are among the league elites.

Another fine season? Johnny Cueto's 2016 rated 5.5 bWAR and 4.9 fWAR.

A major-league starter, a regular rotation member, is a 2+ WAR player. A quality reliever can contribute about 1.0 WAR and sometimes more.

Last year FanGraphs said Bum was our best guy (3.2 WAR) and Smardj our second-best (1.5 WAR), Baseball-Reference reversed them, with Smardj at 2.9 WAR and Bum at 2.8 WAR.

FanGraphs version (fWAR) is based on a pitching metric called FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP grew out of some research by a fella with the spectacular moniker of Voros McCracken. We'll talk about FIP later, it is a very useful way to look at pitching.



Zo said...

Back at the end of November, I posted about the pitching staff using WAR from Baseball Reference. Had we gotten equivalent WAR from our young staff rather than a regression, and those numbers translated into actual wins, the Giants would have been a .500 team.

M.C. O'Connor said...

Well D-Rod for sure, and Suarez too, but Holland (vet) as well. It wasn't just the youngsters. Pomeranz got a bunch of starts as well before they jettisoned him.

Gausman, a healthy Cueto, maybe they can be a little more stable this year. Tyler Anderson might be a bounceback candidate. Beede is still intriguing. I suspect Shaun Anderson is in for the ride of his life. Opener, spot starter, closer, you-name-it.

nomisnala said...

they would be a lot more stable this year if they still had Bumgarner.

M.C. O'Connor said...

Sure, but he wanted to be somewhere else.

Giants pick up Brandon Guyer, a versatile RH outfielder who gets on base but not much pop. He has a big platoon split and kills lefties. His claim to fame is leading the AL in HBP two seasons in a row with 24 and 31 in '15 and '16.

In '16 he was traded to the Indians from the Rays and he picked up 8 HBP in a 38-game span (96 PA). That's one HBP every 12 plate appearances! That's some mad skills, brah!