Thanksgiving week

My job has a few perks, one of them I particularly enjoy: a whole week off at Thanksgiving. I thought I'd find a few things to be thankful for and throw them up on the blog so y'all will have some reading material for the holiday.

If you aren't a Baseball-Reference junkie, you should be. I sponsor a page there. Guess which one? B-R has everything. Here's a page for real Giants fans. Here's another. How about the Franchise Encyclopedia? Or the day-by-day game logs for any season? Or playoff game box scores? Transactions? This site has something for every one of you. Go find something cool and report back!

For the sabermetric beast lurking in your soul--and I know it's there, so let it out--nothing beats FanGraphs. Want to see how Pablo Sandoval stacks up with the best using today's trendy new stats? No problem. Want to settle arguments about Tim Lincecum and the Cy Young? Piece o' cake. Want to gape with awe at Barry Bonds' hitting prowess? How about another gusher about Tim? There are lots of ways to view a ball game. It's hard to stay on top of this stuff, I'll admit, but this is 21st-century baseball. There's no end to the data mining we can do.

You can hit "refresh" on this page until your eyes glaze over.

Danger, danger.

Nerd! Nerd!

Road trip!!

A thoughtful piece by a one-time-Giant called "Exploring the Intagibles of Catching." Recommended.

I'll be on the road and un-tethered from the web for the week. Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Basking in the glow

At lunch yesterday JCP and I had a lot of fun talking about Tim Lincecum's remarkable season and his 2nd Cy Young in as many years. This morning I'm still basking in the glow. I know Cardinals fans are dismayed, and I expect a number of BBWAA members are surprised, but I believe the best man won the award. All homerism aside, Tim Lincecum was the best pitcher in the league last year and pitched even better this year. They used to say when I was a kid that a challenger had to "knock out the champ" in order to claim the title. Mr. Carpenter and Mr. Wainwright had tremendous seasons and are great ballplayers, but they lost their 15-round decisions by a few points on the judges' cards. I knew the vote would be close--I think we all did, and I must admit I thought Carpenter would win. I figured he'd get the lion's share of 1st place points, and Tim would clean up the 2nd place points. I could certainly see a writer picking either of the other two guys as number one, but I couldn't imagine anyone voting both guys ahead of Tim. (And Javier Vasquez and Dan Haren are both studs and very deserving of votes--it should not have been Tim vs. The Cards, but Tim vs. the best in the league.) In the end, Tim just got too many votes--he was 1, 2, or 3 on every ballot. He made quite an impression on the baseball cognoscenti. As well he should. Giants fans know how dominating this kid is. Leave the stats aside for a second, and think about the feeling you get when you watch him pitch. For me, it's simply awe. I just marvel at his confidence, his fearlessness, and his ability to sit guys down. The guy is great theater--his small frame, his slacker 'do, his outrageous delivery--and you can't take your eyes off him. Giants fans have never seen this kind of talent on the hill. Tim has a long way to go to match the career numbers of guys like Juan Marichal and Gaylord Perry, but in back-to-back seasons he has simply smothered the opposition with pitching brilliance. (Pitching brilliance, I might add, that is totally supported by a panoply of both sabermetric numbers and old-fashioned stats!) When Barry was being Barry, I remember feeling like the earth stopped turning when he was at the plate. Whatever I was doing, wherever I was, I froze and gave my full atttention to that moment. We know what that was like--we will probably never experience a hitter like that again. Tim is the closest thing to getting that feeling back. You feel like magic is going to happen when he has a ball in his hand, much like when Barry was waving that black bat. Congratulations, Tim! I hope the brain trust is smart enough to make you a Giant forever.

Two For Tim

That's right, based on the BBWAA voting protocol, Tim Lincecum is officially the best pitcher in the National League for the second consecutive year. Hey JP, how about another of those great pictures of our favorite Timmah?

OK, back to bitching about other stuff!

Off-season filler

Stat geeks don't like the Giants 2010 offense. Big surprise, eh? Check out BaseballProjection.com and click on the Giants hitters. There's also a projection for Free Agents. OK, since I know you won't follow the links, here are the highlights:

GIANTS:
Sandoval .312/.356/.502
FSanchez .281/.319/.396

FA:
Holliday .299/.376/.510
NJohnson .264/.395/.407

The fellow who puts these together is named Sean Smith and his system is called CHONE (he's an Angels fan). BBTF's Dan Szymborksi has a system called ZiPS, but I don't believe he has worked up next season for the G-men. FanGraphs has Bill James projections available if you really need to waste time at work. These are popular with fantasy league guys, and I enjoy them because I do that sort of thing in my head all the time--imagining what so-and-so will hit next year. These are just more systematic, and have a track record. Have fun while we wait on Tim news!

Outrage is too mild a word

Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals beat out the Giants Pablo Sandoval for the 2009 Silver Slugger Award for National League third basemen. Managers and coaches vote.


Ryan Zimmerman

.292/.364/.525
.888 OPS
133 OPS+


Pablo Sandoval

.330/.387/.556
.924 OPS
142 OPS+


I'm sure Mr. Zimmerman is a fine fellow and all, rescuing babies from burning buildings and whatnot, but this is the SILVER SLUGGER award. According to the website:

They base their selections on a combination of offensive statistics, including batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage . . .

Hmm. Batting average? Check. On-base percentage? Check. Slugging percentage? Check. I'm sure glad the managers and coaches were paying attention to the criteria for Silver Slugger Award when they filled out their ballots. Oh, wait:

. . . as well as the coaches and managers general impressions of a player's overall offensive value.

This is what we call a fudge factor. As in, "I never got to see Sandoval play, because I'm an East Coast guy, and the Nationals really suck, and the only other guy I know who plays third is David Wright and so, uh, I guess it's Zimmerman." That, my friends, is what passes for analyis in the upper echelons of MLB leadership.

Of course, any excuse to write about the Panda is fun. Here's the latest on his off-season (hat tip to OBM). How can you not love this guy? Here's what he says:

The fans, I love them and want them to know I'll always be the guy who's working hard.

Hah. Keep your damn silver bat, Zimmerman. Let's see you top that!

Uggla rumors

Acording to "major-league sources" the Giants are pursuing Dan Uggla. We've heard this before, of course. Uggla sports a career OPS+ of 114 and a career slash line of .257/.344/.482 (.354 w OBA). In his four full ML seasons, all with Florida, he's been worth 4.1, 2.7, 4.7, and 2.9 WAR. He's considered a defensive liability, and would have to play third on the Giants (moving Pablo Sandoval to first). He's a legit power threat, racking up 121 HR and 139 2B in 617 games. He made over $5 M last season, his first arbitration-eligible year. HE'S NOT A FREE AGENT. We would have to make a trade (that scares me). He turns 30 in March.

Assuming we don't chase Matt Holliday with 6 years and $100 million, would you pursue Uggla? He's never had a season below .800 OPS (.826 career), but also never reached .900 (Sandoval was .943 last year). He's a cut above Aaron Rowand (.788), but that's not saying much. For the record, Juan Uribe gave us .824 in 2009. Uggla would be a temporary piece, adding some much-needed pop but not much else. He walks a fair bit, which is nice, but doesn't hit much for average, and strikes out a lot. He's a bit too one-dimensional for me. I suppose it would come down to what we'd have to give up. At this point, we don't have much in the way of surplus, and I've no idea what the FloMars are looking for. You can bet they'll sell high and dazzle poor Sabes with "All-Star" and "RBI-man."

I think we'd be better off chasing a free agent, at least then all we'd lose is money, and your San Francisco Giants have never had issues about throwing money on the ground. Barry Zito will be paid $18.5 M in both 2010 and 2011, and $19 M in 2012. Add in Aaron Rowand at $12 M per year over the same span, and you've got over 1/3 of a $90 M payroll spent on two spectacular mediocrities. Unless the team is willing to jack up the cost of doing business, those two contracts may doom us. The Lincecum-Cain-Sanchez triumvirate will only get spendier, and the window of opportunity to win big with them will close quickly. You see why I get depressed thinking about next year? Tell me, O My Brothers, that I'm wrong. Maybe I'll just have to start gobbling Zoloft.

Milton

A trade proposal from Al at BleedCubbieBlue.com (http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2009/11/6/1118100/building-a-cubs-champion-2010):
"The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.
This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.
I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal."

So what do you think? Would you be willing to risk a petulant Milton Bradley to replace a gamery Aaron Rowand? Bradley has been a major leaguer for 10 years, has hit over 20 hr only once and hit 19 once. .277 avg, .371 obp and .450 ops (Rowand: 9 years, 2 with 20+ hr, .280, .339, .448). Could Bochy handle Bradley, and vice-versa? Would he likely be able to find success and fit in with the Giants? If you think this is a possibility, would you throw in some cash as Al suggests? Or would you just do Bradley for Rowand straight up and tell the Cubs to stick it?

Me, I think Milton Bradley has more potential than Rowand, but I can't see it, even if the cash were not "equalized." Just not enough upside in the career stats to make it an attractive deal. I don't know if Bradley is a head case, or has some issues that are going to re-appear over and over. But in spite of a better obp, where I see the only significant difference, it is the devil you know against the devil you don't know. Aaron Miles - could be a back up, but we got guys for that. Aaron Miles does not create an incentive.