Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Prognostication, pt. 1

I've never been good at sports predictions. I picked the Colts to win Super Bowl III while my older brother picked the Jets, and that started me off on a long lifetime of losing bets. Curse you, Joe Namath. Now, where were we? Ah yes, the NL West. I'm rating the teams on a simple High-Medium-Low scale of probability in four areas: Eat My Dust Index (EMDI), Just Short of the Prize Coefficient (JSPC), Lurking Crash Potential (LCP), and Bottom Dweller Factor (BDF).

Not since the 1991-92-93 seasons, before the NL was re-configured, has any team won the NL West three years in a row. That team was the Atlanta Braves, of course. Even going all the way back to 1969, the year that brought us divisions, there have been no other three-peats. The Rockies came aboard in 1993, the Braves, Reds, and Astros moved in 1994, and the Diamondbacks joined in 1998.


COLORADO

EMDI: high
JSPC: high
LCP: low
BDF: low

This looks like the best all-around squad to me. Underrated pitching, solid lineup, recent success. I think they are the team to beat. At worst, they'll fall just short.


LOS ANGELES

EMDI: medium
JSPC: high
LCP: medium
BDF: low

The defending champs have a great lineup and some impressive arms, but the "three-peat curse" is sure to show itself. The ownership group is a soap opera disaster, but it's OK because Ned "I am in control here" Colletti has the reins. Falling short this year, I think, but I'm biased against teams with funny names who wear creepy blue caps. I almost gave them a "high" for LCP, I'm getting a real stink-o vibe the more I think about this club.


SAN FRANCISCO

EMDI: low
JSPC: high
LCP: medium
BDF: low

Ah, the Giants. Snappy-looking orange and black caps, lovely French vanilla home duds, gorgeous park. Plucky and gritty and overflowing with VSC, but no sticks to back up the fine pitching. 500+ PAs by the likes of Molina, Huff, Rowand, etc. only raises the LCP--if Posey or another youngster can get some playing time the LCP drops to "low."


ARIZONA

EMDI: medium
JSPC: high
LCP: medium
BDF: low

This is the "dark horse" team from where I sit. The X-factor is Brandon Webb, of course. They are young and play in a hitter's park. They've cornered the NL West market on improbability over the last few seasons--not as good as their record when winning and not as bad as their record when losing. I'd keep an eye on them.


SAN DIEGO

EMDI: low
JSPC: low
LCP: medium
BDF: high

How do you rate "crash potential" when no one expects anything of you? I suppose if they have a hot start then they have a solid chance of crashing back to earth. Lack of depth and talent dooms this club to last place. Beware the spoiler role--they were 39-35 in the 2nd half last year, same as the Giants, and 42-39 at home. Their cavernous yard gives them a chance to use their "death by a thousand paper cuts" offense.

What say, mates?

6 comments:

Zo said...

This, improbably, makes even less sense than your normal posts. Why is East (sic) My Dust Index "EDMI"? Shouldn't it be EMDI? What are the defining criteria of each area? How do you integrate these seemingly vastly different things? One imagines that LCP is some sort of estimate of the potential to have some devastating event (like an injury) that singlehandedly takes the team out of contention. If this is indeed a basis of the potential, why are the Giants ranked "high"? It seems to me that, given pitching depth, the Giants are not likely to suffer as much as some other teams if one pitcher goes down, and given the uniform mediocrity of the offense, it is not likely to suffer much if a hitter goes down either. Is the order teams are listed the expected order of finish in the division? I figured that out because it would just be too, too gut-wrenching to see the Giants do any better than last year.

M.C. O'Connor said...

Yeah, fixed those typos. I was suffering from EMOS--Early Morning Orthography Syndrome! Hey, welcome to the "wham-bam-thank-you-ma'am" world of blogging! Slap it up, fix it up, move on. Appy polly loggies for the "my bad" lapses.

And yes, I do believe the Giants deserve a high LCP. We are way too weak of a hitting club to survive a stretch of poor pitching, bad fielding, or a injury to one of the following: Lincecum, Cain, Sandoval, JSanchez, Wilson. Imagine last year if Jeremy Affeldt wasn't "lights out." He was huge in clutch, game-deciding situations ("high leverage" in saber-speak). What if he was closer to his career norms? Imagine last year without Juan Uribe slugging over .500--these kinds of improbable performances lead to, in my view, unreasonable expectations of performance.

It should be noted for all of our salivating over our starting pitching (and it is very good), it in not by any means the very best or entirely exclusive. There are several good staffs--the Rockies, for example, and the Braves and the Phils. We are not necessarily THAT much better than LA or AZ, either.

Expected order of finish? Other than Colorado and San Diego, no. The middle slots are up for grabs and it will depend a LOT on health and, in the Giants case, if any of our stiffs have a career year (very low probability of that), or if any of our youngsters have a breakout (this is my hope, but the projections aren't encouraging).

M.C. O'Connor said...

CHONE projections for starting rotations discussed here.

Garbanzo Madasinavathapudi said...

What do you think of the Wellemeyer signing? I think it was a mistake, as we have many internal options who can pitch just as well (if not better) for less. What do you guys say?

M.C. O'Connor said...

It's a minor league deal, so it's a good move. They aren't messing with the 40-man roster unless he makes the team. I don't know whether he has anything left, but it never hurts to have depth. He was a decent back-end starter in 2008 for St. Louis. Obviously, I'd like to see Pucetas or Martinez get a chance before him, but you might need an emergenecy starter or long reliever for a stretch, and you wont have to worry about wasting options on your younger talent if you call on Wellemeyer.

M.C. O'Connor said...

BtB has another interesting post, this time about "playoff probabilities." AZ gets some love, interestingly, having the highest % in the NL West, followed by CO. Check it out.


n.b. they are using BP's PECOTA system of projections.