Sunday, January 4, 2015

To Tim or Not to Tim?

Maybe that isn't exactly the right question, but the point is that it is time to talk about our favorite local Freak. Face it, this is a juicy topic. It covers everything from hero worship, economic inequality, and our own mortality.  But mostly it gives us another good chance to crunch numbers!

With that in mind, let's start with an excellent Beyond the Box Score article that states a very clear opinion. What do you guys think?


M.C. O'Connor said...

The Giants have the luxury of TWO fifth starter/long man types in Petit and Lincecum. I think the team can mix-and-match their roles as they see fit during the season. Spring training will set the positions--who ever is hot in March will get the nod in April as a starter. And performance will dictate the rest.

I'm OK with that. We've seen Tim have nice stretches (June 8 to July 20, for example) where he was very valuable as a starter. I expect he'll have some stretches like that again. Petit, as we have seen, has done some great things as a starter and a reliever. I expect he'll do that again in 2015.

Brother Bob said...

I don't know what Lincecum's future holds, but if he were to retire today the natural comparison would be to Mark "The Bird" Fydrich. (Spoiler alert- Tim wins the comparison by a mile) Fydrich was an instant phenom and a wacky character. After just 5 seasons with the Tigers, he was out of the majors. Our boy has had far more success and already more longevity.

Zo said...

I'm with Mark. As much as I would love to Tim dominate like the old Tim, he will have to demonstrate it, and, I guess, keep on demonstrating it. I'm not really sure that I would call the Tim/Yusmeiro situation a luxury. That is one 5th starter and one long man. The fact that either could be either doesn't seem like a luxury to me. Another pitcher in that role - that would be a luxury. I am kind of still wanting them to resign Vogie. I just don't think that the Giants can have too many pitchers, especially considering 1) return from injury, 2) old, 3) old and 4) really a lot of innings (the least of my worries).

Zo said...

I guess it is not correct to refer to Peavy as old. He will be 34 this year. He just seems old.

M.C. O'Connor said...

Peavy looks like he went a few rounds with Vladimir Klitschko, so yeah, he looks older than he is.

I'd like to see Vogie back, too.

M.C. O'Connor said...

Evans on Zobrist.

obsessivegiantscompulsive said...

This is most of my comment I left on that site:

I would have been totally happy if Petit was placed into the rotation this season, I think he’s as ready as he’ll ever be and he’s not getting younger (but I’m happy that Peavy was re-signed, nonetheless).

Still, one thing that’s missing from any article regarding Lincecum this off-season is the revelation (via an SI interview) that he has not been working with his Dad regarding his mechanics since 2009.

Looking at his seasonal stats does not yield the frustrations that Giants fans have had the endure the past few seasons with Lincecum’s ups and downs. We’ve seen, firsthand, how his peripherals make him look unlucky, basically he’s been somehow losing it in high leverage situations. Yet, his peripherals had been good until 2014.

He was still pretty good in 2014 until he saved that game in deep extra innings, his ERA was at 3.65, while not elite, at least was good enough for any 4th starter in the league. Then he suddenly lost it and never seemed to get it back, he had some OK outings after being removed from the rotation, but the Giants never dipped into his well during the playoffs much.

So while I agree with your premise that Petit right now is better, $18M or no $18M, I think that the Giants need to give Lincecum a chance to show what he can do now that his Dad is helping him again with his mechanics, and keeping it tuned. Even when he was winning Cy Youngs, there would be a month where he would go off the rails and there would be regular reports that he would lose his mechanics and need his father to help him get back to where he should be. And even in his poor last few seasons, he actually pitched well for around half the season, it would just be that he would blow up at some point in the season, and just lose it, ruining his overall seasonal results.

So I like the Giants position right now that Linceum is the starter and Petit is the long reliever/6th starter. It allows him to keep face, while the Giants use spring training to assess where Timmy is now and how productive he can be in 2015. Petit as the starter with Lincecum in the bullpen is an option that could still be done mid-season (or when necessary) without harming irreparably, their playoff chances.

Meanwhile, the Giants can see if working with his Dad will help him reach prior heights, as the Giants don’t need Linecum to be a Cy Young winner again for them to win the division, they just need him to be pretty good, like he was in 2010-2011, before the downturn in his production. It is not either/or, must do, to swap them, there are other options, and I like what the Giants are doing so far regarding the two.