The World Series

The Houston Astros come in as favorites against the Atlanta Braves. I've seen a variety of numbers for the money line so I'm going to pick one (from The Athletic) and talk about that. The Astros are listed at -145 for the Series and the Braves are listed at +120.

-145 means bet $145 to win $100 and is equivalent to 20:29 in fractional odds (100/145). That's an implied win probability of about 59% (145/245).

+120 means bet $100 to win $120 and is equivalent to 6:5 in fractional odds (120/100). That's an implied win probability of about 45% (100/220).

I have a hard time believing that ANY team in the post-season has a nearly 60% chance to win! That's too high for my taste. I think Houston should be favored but not by that much. The Astros have too much hitting and their pitching is pretty even with Atlanta's. If you add in home field advantage I think that's enough to tip the Series. But the Braves have a bit of magic going on right now and sometimes that's all it takes for an upset. I don't have a dog in the fight. If one team has "SF Giants" on their jerseys then I'll give a shit, otherwise it's just a bunch of guys running around in different colors.

Note that the win probabilities add up to over 100% (59+45=104). That extra 4% accounts for the vigorish (the "vig" or house cut). Those guys make money either way--god bless American capitalism! (Anyone who bets on sporting contests is a fool.) I do believe that this unholy alliance between MLB and sports books is ultimately a bad thing. I say enjoy the baseball before Las Vegas corporate quants wind up running the whole show.

--M.C.

 

p.s. 538 says it's a 50-50 tossup

The 2021 Giants, part 4

Take a look at the chart below (click on it to get a larger image). You can see the names on the left and what I want you to look at is the number on the far right. It is OPS+ and it measures OPS against a league-average hitter. A hitter rated 100 OPS+ is at league-average level, and a hitter rated 120 OPS+ is 20% better than a league-average hitter. All these hitters had at least 200 plate appearances (from Baseball-Reference).

 

Almost everyone on the list was over 100. That's like Lake Wobegon where everyone is above average! Seriously, the Giants were able to run out a lot of good players every day who could hit the damn baseball especially when given favorable match-ups. Even the guys who under-performed (La Stella and Dickerson) were expected to do better, and those expectations were reasonable given past performance. Casali was the backup catcher and thus subject to a different standard, and I think 42-13 in his starts works as a standard.

The rest of the list (under 200 PA) is Mauricio Dubon, Mike Tauchman, Thairo Estrada, Jason Vosler, Chadwick Tromp, Jaylin Davis, Joey Bart, and Skye Bolt. Only Estrada (52 G, 132 PA) delivered the goods (.273/.333/.479) with an OPS+ rating of 118. I hope he's a big part of next season. Even though the other names are underwhelming, remember of course that Tauchman made the play of the season in LA, which goes to show how many heroes it takes to win 109 games.

Take a look at the same page for the 2014 Giants. That team had a lot of good hitters up and down the lineup.

It seems like a no-brainer that the team will pick up Posey's option. They could offer Belt a QO, much like they did with Gausman. Bryant will be one of the more desirable free agents, and he does fit the Giants nicely, but that's too big of a picture to speculate about. Too many moving parts! Mostly I expect FZ & Co. will continue to acquire talent and keep the level of competition for roster spots at a high level. The 2021 Giants enjoyed some fine work by young pitchers that were promoted from within, maybe there will be some hitters in the system that will make highlights in 2022.

--M.C.

The 2021 Giants, part 3

The biggest surprise of the season was the pitching staff. From the get-go they were among the best in the league at suppressing runs, specifically limiting walks and homers, and continued to pitch well until the final game. They allowed 18 runs in the five-game LDS and threw two shutouts against a Dodgers team that led the NL in offense (and were fourth in runs scored behind three AL teams, the Astros, Rays, and Jays).

How did that happen? Let's start with the bullpen. Here are the top six relievers by IP this season with their ERAs: Tyler Rogers (81, 2.22), Jarlin Garcia (68-2/3, 2.62), Jose Alvarez (64-2/3, 2.37), Zack Littel (61-2/3, 2.92), Jake McGee (59-2/3, 2.72), and Dominic Leone (53-2/3, 1.51). All of those ERAs rate 150 ERA+ and higher meaning they are 50% better than league average. All the FIPs are correspondingly good (3.28, 3.77, 3.15, 3.87, 3.35, and 3.08) so you know that the numbers aren't too fluky. They threw strikes and mostly kept the ball in the yard. I have to add wunderkind Camilo Doval's 27 IP, 3.00 ERA, and 3.47 FIP. When everyone else was faltering he went un-scored upon in September and literally saved the season. Although other relievers logged more innings (Tony Watson, Caleb Baragar, Jay Jackson, Matt Wisler, John Brebbia, Conner Menez), the 13-1/3 delivered by young Kervin Castro (one unearned run, 2.12 FIP) got him a spot on the post-season roster and he saw action in two games.

The construction and emergence of the bullpen was a vindication of the infamous "churn" so beloved by our owlish and genial PoBO Farhan Zaidi. He and and his loyal lieutenant Scott Harris and their staff made sure there was a continuous stockpile of major league-ready ballplayers to be called upon. And called upon they were!

The starters obviously shone this season as well. The Giants almost pulled off a five-man rotation at one point, looking very old-school, but fatigue and injuries took their toll. It's amazing the club went 21-6 in September! The front five accounted for 137 starts. Aaron Sanchez, Sammy Long, and Scott Kazmir added 16 more and the rest were bullpen/opener games.

Giving Kevin Gausman a QO at the end of last season paid off handsomely. He was a top-tier pitcher this season and stayed healthy enough for 192 IP (6th-best in MLB). I expect they will offer him a deal this winter. Another free agent that really delivered, especially in the first half, was Anthony DeSclafani. Unfortunately his troubles against LA and in the LDS really hurt his stock. I could see them re-signing him but they won't have the same enthusiasm they did earlier. Alex Wood however made a case to stick around, mostly because he's a lefty and could perhaps relieve as well as start, sort of like Julio Urias. Johnny Cueto had a brief resurgence and started 21 games but couldn't stay healthy and did not make the post-season cut. I assume they'll buy him out. Alas, that's the last we'll see of that wonderfully entertaining performer.

Logan Webb was the story of the year, of course. The 24-year old put himself on the national radar with two brilliant efforts against the Dodgers in the playoffs. That only confirmed what Giants fans had just discovered--that he was an ace. You have to be excited about seeing him pitch next season. It's also another reason to re-sign Gausman as having that co-ace tandem at the top of the rotation is tough on other teams!

FanGraphs rated the San Francisco staff 5th in WAR (21.9) behind the White Sox, Dodgers, Brewers, and Yankees. They rated second in FIP (3.55) to LA (3.54). B-R gave them a 127 ERA+, again second only to LA's 136. For more conventional statistics they had the second-lowest WHIP (1.148, LA led MLB with 1.097). The Giants allowed the fewest homers (151) and the fewest walks (146). They had 18 shutouts, second to Atlanta and Milwaukee with 19. They had, like the Dodgers, a league-leading 56 saves.

--M.C.

The 2021 Giants, part 2

I've said it before and I repeated it in my last post: this is the most interesting Giants team in my tenure as a fan. What's so interesting? Let's start with the manager, Gabe Kapler. This is a man who leaves nothing to chance. Every action has a purpose. Even warm-up tosses are conscious, deliberate acts with clear outcomes. This approach, at first blush, seems too hands-on for pro athletes and more suited to working with elementary school kids. But Kapler believes that every athlete (every person, in fact) can learn, adapt, and grow. Practice isn't just drills. It's a personal improvement plan. Kap's forte is player development, and he believes that this process happens continuously and throughout all the things that happen in the season from Spring Training to the playoffs to the layoffs.

Kapler is also match-up obsessed. He believes that every encounter can be maximized and that even the tiniest increment in your favor is worth pursuing. It drove the old-school purists in Philadelphia crazy, and to Kap's credit he adjusted his schemes when he came to San Francisco. Mostly, he asked the veteran players for buy-in beforehand and they were professional enough (and hungry enough for increasingly elusive success) to meet him halfway. The result? Career resurgences for BCraw, Belt, Buster, and Longo, and a rejuvenated nucleus of veteran leaders to build a team around.

Ron put it crudely in the comments: "making Lemonade out of Lemons." I have to counter that notion just a bit: there are no "lemons" in a Gabe Kapler organization! The baseball world may look at the Giants lineup of no-names and think the team was scraped together by dumpster-diving and somehow these marginal players were transformed by SF secret sauce into winners. It's a nice narrative, but it's bullshit. Kap respects professional baseball players. He knows they are talented and ambitious. He sees what they CAN do and not what they CAN'T do. Very few players reach the heights of someone like Mookie Betts or Max Scherzer. The vast majority of players will never be superstars. MOST ballplayers are more like Darin Ruf and Jose Alvarez! What the Giants do is recognize what contributions their players CAN make and so they maximize their chances to make those contributions. Moreover, they provide the coaching and instructional support to help players work on the things they need to work on.

Giants players noted all season long Kap's willingness to listen. Kap, in turn, noted again and again how unselfish the players were in accepting whatever role the team needed from them. I think the skipper gets a lot of credit for creating that culture. One thing that stood out for me: if a reliever blew up in a crucial spot in a game Kap would put him back out there in a key spot in the next game. It was a message that said "we trust you and we have your back." It seems like really simple schoolyard stuff but it makes a huge deal in a teaching environment. The clubhouse was as much a classroom as the playing field.

Have you ever seen a manager pinch-hit for a guy that was 2-for-2 with a homer? Or sit a guy with the game-winning homer the previous night? It happened all season long! And the hitters never bitched or whined. They knew the system was working for them individually and for the team as a whole. The 2021 Giants had few regulars. They platooned like they invented platooning. They looked like a hockey team some nights the way they ran through the line changes. That's not supposed to work. You're supposed to plug in your All-Stars every day in the same spots on the field and in the lineup and go with that all season long. This Giants team didn't do that. They used all forty men on their 40-man roster. It was a team in the true sense of the word.

I find all this modern stuff really interesting. I've really enjoyed the emergence of analytics, for example. I feel like all that stuff just enriches and enlarges my appreciation of the game. And now Kapler comes along and says things like "trust the process." Imagine a manager saying that back in the day. They would have thought he was a fruit loop who belonged at Esalen instead of MLB! Kap comes up with stuff that sounds like it emerged from a Bayesian workflow seminar instead of a coaches meeting.

In the end, the Giants won 109 games.

--M.C.

The 2021 Giants, part 1

The Giants won 109 games but their season is over. Taking a look at the three World Series championship teams of the last decade only amplifies this accomplishment. The 2010 team won 103 (92+11) games, the 2012 team won 105 (94+11) games and the 2014 team won 100 (88+1+11) games.

This Giants team had the poor luck to face a superb playoff opponent. The Dodgers are the defending champions and were nearly a consensus pick to repeat. And seeing how well they shut down the Giants I think they are clearly the best of the four remaining contenders. Losing to a good team is easier to deal with. It was a coin-flip kind of series--the winning run came in the final inning of the last game.

What's my takeaway for 2021? This was a fun team. A really fun team. And an interesting team! The most interesting team I've ever followed. There was no electrifying celebrity like Timmy or lightning-rod personality like MadBum. Despite having a face-of-baseball player like Buster Posey this team did not attract much media attention. But there was nothing boring about this club. Every single game was an adventure.

I've noted throughout this season the team's remarkable consistency. They played good baseball all season long. They played their best baseball in the second half and in the final month. I've never followed a team that was this good from week-to-week and month-to-month.

There's lots more to say, naturally. Part 2 will be about Gabe Kapler.

--M.C.

Game 167

LA 2  SF 1

The Giants and Dodgers played 24 games this season. The Giants won 12, the Dodgers won 12. The only one that mattered was the last one, and the Giants fell short. The Dodgers rallied in the 9th against Camilo Doval and pushed across the go-ahead run. Late-inning LaMonte looked like--for a moment--he might hit the game-winner in the bottom half, but it wasn't to be. The Giants won 109 games but their season is over. The Dodgers advance to the LCS.

Logan Webb was brilliant again. He gave up a run in the 6th but was otherwise dominating, yielding only four hits and a walk against seven whiffs in seven frames. The Giants tied it on a booming homer by Darin Ruf off Julio Urias, but that was all the lineup could muster. Ultimately the series came down to the Giants inability to score runs. They had chances early against opener Corey Knebel and his relief man Brusdar Graterol, the two righties inserted by Dave Roberts to foil Gabe Kapler's match-up schemes, but did not convert. Urias, other than the homer, was never threatened, and he was followed by Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen, and Max Scherzer. The Giants scored ten runs in the five games. It wasn't enough.

I'll have plenty to say about the 2021 season. But right now I'm too sad to go on. I'm not angry or disappointed. Just sad. Such a great season, such a crappy ending.

I'm pouring myself an extra measure of bourbon. Dwight Yoakam says "even whiskey cannot ease you're hurting me" and he's probably right. I'm about to find out.

Take care, my friends. Thanks for being on the journey with me.

--M.C.

Go Giants!!

BEAT LA!!

--M.C.

Series showdown set

LA 7  SF 2

The Dodgers jumped on Anthony DeSclafani right away and chased him from the game. Giants relievers couldn't keep it close and didn't get much help from the lineup. It was a crappy game--let's leave it at that.

Everything gets decided on Thursday night in San Francisco. Game Five is at 6:07 Pacific. I suppose we all knew it would come to this. It's the 167th game for both clubs and the 24th match-up of the season.

Logan Webb will get the start against Julio Urias. The Giants will play much better when they are back home and it should be an incredibly exciting game. I'm looking forward to it, but I'm also happy about the off-day. These contests are exhausting.

GO GIANTS!!

BEAT LA!!

--M.C.

Giants blank Dodgers, go up 2-1

SF 1  LA 0

The Giants pulled off an epic team shutout tonight in LA and edged the Dodgers in a classic pitchers duel. Max Scherzer gave the Giants fits, whiffing ten over seven frames and yielding only three hits and one walk. His one blemish was the big hit--a massive homer in the 5th by Evan Longoria. That was Longo's tenth career post-season bomb, by the way. Alex Wood put up four zeroes and the bullpen did the rest, highlighted by an extraordinary six-out save from Camilo Doval. Dodger Stadium was swirling with wind all game long and it probably cost both teams a homer or two, and the strike zone pissed off both ballclubs, so you had to figure it was a fair contest. It was a tremendous team effort and the Giants take a one-game lead in the LDS. Special shout-out to Brandon Crawford for his continued awesome-ness, especially that grab in the 7th to deny Mookie Betts. The whole team deserves a nod for great fielding.

The Dodgers had won FIFTEEN in a row at home before this game! They have been shut out TWICE in this series by the Giants even though they were shut out only FIVE times all year!

This Giants team is showing, again and again, how tough and resilient they are. After Saturday's ugly loss they played a beautiful game and pulled off a sensational win. If they win one more game they go to the LCS!

Tomorrow night's game is listed at 6:07 Pacific. The starters have not been named but Anthony DeSclafani seems the logical choice.

GO GIANTS!!

BEAT LA!!

--M.C.

Evened up

LA 9  SF 2

It was not a good night for the Giants. A taut 2-1 contest came apart at the seams in the 6th. The relief corps has been a huge part of the team's success this season but they got whacked around this time. Both Dominic Leone and Zack Littell got hit hard. Things went the Dodgers way early in the game and it just steamrolled after that. No sense going over the details--experiencing them once was enough.

The next game is Monday night in LA at 6:37 PT. The Giants need a big road win. They played .654 ball on the road (53-28) this year including 6-4 at Dodger Stadium so I think they will get the job done.

GO GIANTS!!

BEAT LA!!

--M.C.

Young guys pitch, old guys hit

SF 4  LA 0

The Giants shut out the Dodgers in Game One of the LDS behind a sensational start by Logan Webb. He dominated the toughest lineup in baseball for 7-2/3 innings, whiffing ten without a walk and yielding only five hits. The Dodgers were shut out just five times in 2021. Webb got eleven ground balls, defusing LA's power, and got some help in key spots from the infield. Tommy La Stella and Brandon Crawford turned a ridiculous double play in the 4th, La Stella glove-flipping the ball to Craw who had to stutter-step to the bag before getting off the throw. It was beautiful, man. Just a great night all around for the team.

And speaking of La Stella, he walked to open the game against Walker Buehler. Despite his name, he's not known for walks. With two outs Buster Posey launched a homer to right field that bounced into the water and suddenly it felt like this would be the Giants night. Of course it was Buster who got things going! Webb took care of the rest. Both Kris Bryant and Brandon Crawford chipped in solo shots to pound home the win and the bullpen closed it out. Trevor Rogers finished the 8th and Camilo Doval had nine-pitch 9th.

Kevin Gausman gets the ball tomorrow night (6:07 PT) against Julio Urias. I hope everyone is stoked after the fabulous victory tonight! What a great start to the post-season! Let's see some more of that!

GO GIANTS!

BEAT LA!!

--M.C.

Best in the West

NLDS Game One, Friday 6:37 PT, Oracle Park San Francisco

In a surprise move Logan Webb will get the start in the first game tomorrow night and Kevin Gausman will get the ball for Game Two (Saturday 6:07 PT). Walker Buehler is listed for LA. Webb certainly earned the honor with a terrific performance in Game 162, leading the team to the win that clinched the NL West title. The last eight titles (2013-2020) were taken by the Los Angeles Dodgers. The last time another team finished on top was in 2012--that San Francisco Giants team, I'm sure you remember, won the World Series that season.

Speaking of the World Series, the Dodgers are the defending MLB champions. The Giants, however, topped their 106-56 record with a franchise-best 107-55 mark and thus beat the champs by one game. The Dodgers won their 107th game last night, holding off the Cardinals in the Wild Card match and advancing to the League Division Series.

The Giants (.660) and the Dodgers (.654) are the two best teams in baseball. Only the defending AL champs and current AL East winners Tampa Bay Rays (100-62, .617) are in the same ballpark. The two West Coast teams are good on both sides of the ball. LA scored the fifth-most runs (830) and SF the sixth-most (804). LA's pitchers allowed the fewest runs (561) and SF's the second-fewest (594). The Giants hit 241 homers, the Dodgers 237. FanGraphs rates the Giants hitters at 30 WAR (third-best) and the Dodgers at 29.5 (fifth-best), and rates SF pitching 21.9 WAR (fifth-best) and LA 26.9 (second-best).

The Giants went 54-27 at home and 53-28 on the road. The Dodgers were 58-23 at home and 48-33 on the road. The teams played 19 games, the Giants taking ten. SF scored 78 runs in those games and LA scored 80. Talk about close!

The Dodgers come in as favorites. I've seen an open -136 money line (bet $136 to win $100) with the Giants at +116 (bet $100 to win $116). The Dodgers are obviously a very popular team and they've been almost every pundit's pre-season pick to repeat as champs. No one picked the Giants and yet they exceeded every projection by two dozen or more wins, so maybe it's time for people take some notice!

It should be an epic battle. The Giants get the home-field edge and maybe that will be enough to push them over the top. Cancel all your other plans and enjoy the games.

GO GIANTS!!

BEAT LA!!

--M.C.

 

p.s. here's the roster:

 

Webb leads Giants to West title

SF 11  SD 4

The San Francisco Giants won their 107th game in this magnificent, improbable season and seized the Western Division title from their long-time rivals the Los Angeles Dodgers. I had a feeling that the Dodgers would "win out" and that the Giants would have to take care of business on their own. They did, in epic fashion, winning eight of their final nine games to clinch it.

After today The Big Book of Giants Lore will have a new entry under Webb, Logan. It will say "Game 162, October 3rd, 2021." It was an outstanding performance by the 24-year old. He not only dominated the Padres for seven innings, he led the offense with two hits, two RBI, and three runs scored. He got it going in the 2nd inning and led the way from then on. I thought all along the veterans would have to step up today, and they did, but it was the youngster who provided the inspiration. What a performance! Another thing I kept expecting was a big homer, and I was sure we'd get one from a veteran hitter. But it turned out that the pitcher carried the Big Stick and got that cathartic blast. What a finish to the season!

The Giants were great in April (16-10), May (18-10), June (16-9), July (15-10), August (19-9), September (21-6), and, as it turned out the most important month of all, in October (2-1). The Giants go 13-5 in their final 18 games, the 9th-inning of the season. If you've forgotten how awesome this team has been here's a reminder:

1st inning: 11-7

2nd inning: 11-7

3rd inning: 12-6

4th inning: 12-6

5th inning:  12-6

6th inning: 10-8

7th inning: 14-4

8th inning: 12-6

and they finish 13-5 for a final 107-55 (.660), the greatest season in Giants history.

I want to send a 'thank you' to the Los Angeles Dodgers. They are the defending champions and they played magnificently, especially down the stretch, and finished with 106 wins, tied for the most in their long history. They inspired the Giants to new heights.

This 2021 Giants team is the most interesting team I have ever followed. This division championship is the most satisfying ever. The Dodgers have had a stranglehold on the West for much too long--the last time another team won was in 2012 (the Giants, of course)! Taking the title and forcing the Dodgers to play a Wild Card game is the best outcome possible.

This has been a terrible summer what with drought conditions, wildfires, and extreme heat, but the Giants have pulled off a miracle, and it is a wonderful, beautiful thing. I hope you are enjoying the moment!!

The next Giants game will be Friday, October 8th. They will play either the St. Louis Cardinals or the Los Angeles Dodgers in a five-game series, hosting the first two at Oracle Park.

The best thing we fans can do is savor this remarkable and memorable season. I can't think of a Giants club that so embodied the notion of "team" than this group. EVERY SINGLE PLAYER MATTERED!!

Congratulations to the 2021 San Francisco Giants, champions of the NL West.

--M.C.

Streak snapped at seven

SD 3  SF 2 (10)

The Giants could not extend the streak to eight and lost in extras to a scrappy Padres team. San Diego hit in the clutch and pitched superbly, coming from behind in the late innings and beating the Giants bullpen. Joe Musgrove and five relievers limited the home team to five hits. Kevin Gausman was great (7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K) but the lineup could not give him the run support for a win.

The magic number is one. Game 162 is tomorrow at 12:05 PT--Logan Webb gets the start.

GO GIANTS!!

WIN THE WEST!!

 --M.C.

One Step Closer

SF 3  SD 0

The Giants throw another shutout--their 18th--and beat the Padres to reduce their magic number to one. That's seven wins in a row. One more and they are NL West champs. Anthony DeSclafani strung together five zeros and they rewarded him with a quick hook (71 pitches). But that's OK, the bullpen got it done. The 'pen racked up more IP in September than the starters and the Giants went 21-6! Jose Alvarez, Dominic Leone, Tyler Rogers, and Camilo Doval finished it. Doval got another critical save and seems immune to the pennant-chase pressure. Rogers pitched two innings yesterday and still another scoreless inning today. That was his 80th appearance.

Darin Ruf hit a homer in the 1st, and Mike Yastrzemski got an excuse-me RBI single to make it 2-0. LaMonte Wade (who else?) hit a sac fly in the 6th to drive in Donovan Solano (he led off with a double) and that was the third run.

The Giants need one more win. Kevin Gausman gets the start tomorrow afternoon, 1:05 Pacific.

GO GIANTS!!

WIN THE WEST!!

--M.C.

p.s. Wade was also presented with the Willie Mac Award. He certainly deserves it. What a season he's had!

Walk-off Wade

SF 5  AZ 4

Late Inning LaMonte struck again, driving in the winner in the 9th to finish off the pesky Diamondbacks. Giants sweep the series and notch their sixth straight win. The magic number to take the West title is now down to two. Madison Bumgarner got to bat in the 1st--it was an ugly outing for Scott Kazmir--and of course was treated to a huge ovation. He struck out. The Giants eventually tagged him for four runs in his five frames, three of them the work of Austin Slater, Darin Ruf, and Buster Posey. Brandon Crawford, the only lefty in the lineup, hit a solo shot in the 4th. Tyler Rogers pitched a scoreless 8th and 9th to notch the win. Zack Littell struck out four in 1-2/3, and Johnny Cueto chipped in 2-1/3 to help out. Both Ruf and Cueto were just off the IL.

Kazmir walked two and gave up three hits and got only one out. He twisted his ankle on a play at first base and had to leave the game. Kervin Castro came in and the Giants wriggled out of the mess only three runs behind. It could have been a disaster but they hung on and hung around and finally got a chance to win. Wilmer Flores doubled with one out in the 9th and they walked Donovan Solano intentionally. Pinch-hitter Curt Casali then worked a walk to load the bases for Wade. It was the Giants fifth walk-off win.

It all comes down to the final weekend. We knew it would. The Giants have three games to play with the Padres and two wins will get things done. Anthony DeSclafani gets the ball tonight at 6:45 PT.

GO GIANTS!!

WIN THE WEST!!

--M.C.