NLDS Game One, Friday 6:37 PT, Oracle Park San Francisco
In a surprise move Logan Webb will get the start in the first game tomorrow night and Kevin Gausman will get the ball for Game Two (Saturday 6:07 PT). Walker Buehler is listed for LA. Webb certainly earned the honor with a terrific performance in Game 162, leading the team to the win that clinched the NL West title. The last eight titles (2013-2020) were taken by the Los Angeles Dodgers. The last time another team finished on top was in 2012--that San Francisco Giants team, I'm sure you remember, won the World Series that season.
Speaking of the World Series, the Dodgers are the defending MLB champions. The Giants, however, topped their 106-56 record with a franchise-best 107-55 mark and thus beat the champs by one game. The Dodgers won their 107th game last night, holding off the Cardinals in the Wild Card match and advancing to the League Division Series.
The Giants (.660) and the Dodgers (.654) are the two best teams in baseball. Only the defending AL champs and current AL East winners Tampa Bay Rays (100-62, .617) are in the same ballpark. The two West Coast teams are good on both sides of the ball. LA scored the fifth-most runs (830) and SF the sixth-most (804). LA's pitchers allowed the fewest runs (561) and SF's the second-fewest (594). The Giants hit 241 homers, the Dodgers 237. FanGraphs rates the Giants hitters at 30 WAR (third-best) and the Dodgers at 29.5 (fifth-best), and rates SF pitching 21.9 WAR (fifth-best) and LA 26.9 (second-best).
The Giants went 54-27 at home and 53-28 on the road. The Dodgers were 58-23 at home and 48-33 on the road. The teams played 19 games, the Giants taking ten. SF scored 78 runs in those games and LA scored 80. Talk about close!
The Dodgers come in as favorites. I've seen an open -136 money line (bet $136 to win $100) with the Giants at +116 (bet $100 to win $116). The Dodgers are obviously a very popular team and they've been almost every pundit's pre-season pick to repeat as champs. No one picked the Giants and yet they exceeded every projection by two dozen or more wins, so maybe it's time for people take some notice!
It should be an epic battle. The Giants get the home-field edge and maybe that will be enough to push them over the top. Cancel all your other plans and enjoy the games.
GO GIANTS!!
BEAT LA!!
--M.C.
p.s. here's the roster:
4 comments:
This will be the first playoff series between the two ancient rivals. In 1962, back when they went directly from the regular season to the World Series, they finished in a tie and played a best-of-three series. I was in the fourth grade at Henry Ford and they played the radio broadcast (Russ Hodges and Lon Simmons) over the school PA. Of course we won and played the Damn Yankees in the WS, but I don't recall listening to those games at school.
No Johnny Cueto. No Belt, obviously.
They went with Dickerson and Duggar both, rather than a 13th pitcher.
Here's Steve Adams from MLBTR:
Dating back to Opening Day 2020, Belt has been the third-best hitter in all of baseball, by measure of wRC+ (163), trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper in that time (min. 500 plate appearances). In his past 560 trips to the plate, Belt has turned in an outrageous .285/.393/.595 batting line and connected on 38 home runs and 27 doubles. Each of Flores, Ruf and Wade has seen time at first base for the Giants this season, and Bryant is certainly capable of slotting in at the position as well.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/giants-nlds-roster-2021-brandon-belt-johnny-cueto.html
Here's more from Adams re Cueto:
It’s possible that Cueto could be added back to the NLCS roster — a best-of-seven set that could include games on three consecutive days and thus increase the importance of adding some length to the pitching staff. While it hasn’t been one of Cueto’s best seasons, the 35-year-old posted solid results in 22 appearances (21 of them starts). The two-time All-Star and former Cy Young runner-up tallied 114 2/3 innings of 4.08 ERA ball with an even 20 percent strikeout rate and a very strong 6.1 percent walk rate. He’s in the final season of a six-year, $130MM contract that contains a $22MM club option with a $5MM buyout.
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