Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Stat Geeks

On the Fan Graphs site, two different sets of player projections for 2008 are available, one called CHONE and the other MARCEL. You can look at hitting (no point) and pitching (now we're talkin'). The lists can be sorted by any of the stats--some are sabremetrically weird, but there is a glossary. The BEST thing to do is click on the player name and it gives you his career record and the two projections plus one from Bill James (normally you have to pay for the BJ stuff, and they aren't available for everyone). If you need to waste part of your work day, check out our boy:

MATT CAIN

Bill James obviously projects better things for Matt than the other two systems, and I think it is because he likes to extrapolate, that is, actually "project" improvement or decline. The other systems. I think, are more like fancy averages of past performance. Thus Matt's 2008 looks a lot like his 2007. I think we will see a big leap forward by M.C. this year: more IP, more K, fewer BB, fewer HA/9, lower ERA, all that.

AND MORE WINS!!!! (And, the best part, he is only 23!)

1 comment:

Zo said...

Interesting stuff. Save these numbers. Cain has pitched two years plus seven games. It will be interesting to see how much these projections can change if, for example, he turns in a year of sub 1.0 WHIP. It would substantially increase the data points from which to make a further projection - and he is still very young.