Well. That pipe dream, the one where the Giants win every series in May, sure went in the crapper in a hurry. The doormats of the National League dropped another one in Cincinnati, 14 - 2. And you thought yesterday's blow-out was bad.
Ty Blach was the bad news bearer of hit-able pitches this time. I guess you can forgive a rookie, he is awfully new and has been great so far, even though he has only pitched in a winning game once in 10 2017 appearances (April 18 at KC). Ty gave up 10 runs on 11 hits. 8 of them were earned. He lasted only 3 innings. He was followed by Kontos (2 IP, 2 runs), Morris (1 IP, 0 runs), Okert (2/3 IP, another 2 runs), Osich (1 1/3 IP, 0 runs). Our bullpen is getting chewed up because our starters are only putting in cameo roles.
I guess it's approaching time to ask whether this team, loaded with All Star talent, with a starting rotation that should be the envy of any team and a newly minted closer that we paid top dollar for, will actually put in a competitive season. Hell, it's about time that we ask whether they can get to .500. Or even .400. I'm sure everyone associated with this team is scratching their heads in wonderment at this team's stinkitude, just like we are.
12 comments:
Some crappy birthday present for Willie Mays.
Stinkitude, indeed.
Fire Righetti.
Is it ok if I go over 7 words? Talk about about concise comments ...
Anyway, Righetti goes when Bochy goes. Don't you think? Now that may be sooner than expected, but they will get to choose. Not the fans or the media. Their job security goes far beyond the failure of this pitching staff. Besides this staff will probably get their act together, once it is too late.
The last two disasters of pitching make it easy to forget how weak our offense really is. And I know there are many problems in that respect, but I keep coming back to Buster. Is he really the baseball force that we think he is? Truly a great defensive catcher and a great guy to give interviews, but when was his last big impact with the bat? When was he last considered for Player of the Week, let alone Month. What does he have 6 RBI? Aren't Crawford and Belt better hitters right now? Oh well, it is not like there is anything we can do about it. And one of you will undoubtedly chime in that he will turn it around and end up with good numbers. But I'm not sure I believe it any more. Our big time great ones are passing out of our world...Tim...Pablo...Sergio...Matt?... Hunter? ...
It is the way of the game. We have lived through this before. This team currently feels like a team of transition. And we aren't transitioning to a good place... I hope I'm wrong
There's no doubt Buster hits fewer homers than before. His 2012 season is the outlier, more of his flyballs went for homers (18.8%) than ever in is career (12.6%). He's under 10% now. Is it the wear and tear of catching? Probably. He can still hit, and will still hit among the league's elites, and he still hits the ball hard. But he's not going to hit homers the way he did before, unless he sacrifices average. I'm guessing he's trying to stay productive with walks and hits and cut down on strikeouts by avoiding the big uppercut swings. He's swinging for liners, not flies, which is sort of opposite the league trend, but maybe plays better in our park.
Yes, Buster is aging. He's not ever going to be the MVP again. That 2012 season, as I said before, is the outlier in his career. But he's a great player nonetheless and his catching is insanely valuable. The Giants need offensive life. They need a fresh bat or two or three. That's the transition they have to make.
While watching a player decline is no fun, it helps to put that player in perspective. According to BB-Ref WAR, the greatest catcher of all time is Johnny Bench who is credited with 75 WAR over 17 years and 2158 games (not all at C, obviously). He started at age 19, and was pretty much done after his age-32 season. Buster has 34.5 WAR over 9 seasons and 922 games. That's 27th ALL-TIME. He's ahead of Roy Campanella (1215 games), for example. And ahead of Yadier Molina (1635 games) and Victor Martinez (1761 games). Jorge Posada, by comparison, took 17 years (1829 games) to get to 42.7 WAR! If you sort catchers by OPS and OPS+ Buster is in the top ten.
We've seen some exceptional play from our All-American boy and he's been the cornerstone of three titles. So, I'm happy about that. Whatever happens with Buster going forward, we've been lucky fans to enjoy his peak.
Like I said it seems like he's trying to be a percentage hitter. You see a lot of older guys hit for more power as they age, they walk and strike out more but figure the homers make up for it. Buster seems to be doing the opposite, being more focused on putting the ball in play rather than waiting for a pitch to clobber. We'll see at the end of the year how that plays out.
If they moved him to first then I think he has to be a bopper to make it worthwhile. Is he more valuable that way? I don't know. I think a good-hitting (even with diminished power) stud fielder behind the plate is better, but I could be wrong.
Either way, the Giants can't rely on him and the other oldster, Pence, to anchor the lineup any more. That's OK, it happens to the best. They all get old and the production drops. I think the team was willing to "keep the band together" for one more shot at glory even if the trend lines were saying it might not be the wisest course. Hey, I was willing to go along with it, too. As much as this season has been a disaster so far I was OK with the team's approach. It isn't working, for lots of reasons, and some changes need to happen. But I'm not angry or upset, just disappointed. We'll see if BobbyE and the Brian Trust are up to the task of re-making the club for the rest of the season and for 2018 and beyond.
Who has a team with a clean-up hitter who is batting over 360 coming into the May 7th game, and he has only 5 RBI. One would think that it would almost be sabermetrically impossible. We find ways not to score. The giants really look terrible in almost all ways vs. Cincy. It is a bit hard to believe, but it is not just in the pitcher's park that the giants cannot hit, but in the hitters parks as well, ie; Cincy, Denver, Arizona. To start the day off on 5/7/16, Panik uncharacteristically strikes out on a pitch very high and outside. Belt hits into an easy out. And Pence strikes out looking quite fooled on Feldman's last pitch. Giants get blooped hit into oblivion. Seems as if Cincy can hit at will, and giants cannot hit off of a tee.
I do think that the giants have nice pieces which would go around a 300 hitter 40 homer guy who would make them all a bit better. They seem to have all the pieces except the stud. Being left field has been a cosmic goop of anti-matter, it would be nice to fill left field with such a player. Will there be an inning that Cincy does not score vs. the giants? Could they absolutely be stealing our signs? The reds have now scored in 14 of 17 innings in this series. It should be that they have not scored in 14 of 17 innings. Do not remember the giants being this bad, even in their 100 loss season.
Jon's point is valid. The Giants are now last in the major leagues in run differential, at -59. The second worst team is San Diego, with -50. The third worst only has a run differential of -38. That's a pretty significant jump from SD to us, and a really significant jump from the two worst teams to the next ones (Oakland and Kansas City, tied). (The best run differential is the Nationals, with +54.)
I'm keeping track of the losses, assigning them to offense, starting pitching or relief pitching. It's a little bit subjective, but so far I have 9 losses ascribed to offense, 5 to starting pitching and 3 to relief pitching. 2 I have both starting pitching and relief pitching as the culprits, and 1 I chalk up to defense (that April 11 game vs Arizona).
lets look at the giants dilemma in a slightly different light. Since last year's all star break, when the giants had the best record in baseball, they are now 41 and 62 for a 398 winning percentage. That is no small sample size, that is over 103 games, and that does not bode well for managerial retention. Or perhaps for general Managerial retention. The one thing that probably should still give us hope, it that we are still selling out every game, and the giants should have the where with all to do something about it.
I think Bochy will get to decide when he goes. He's earned it, don't you think? I am concerned about his health--I hope he knows when to call it quits (or at least be promoted upstairs). He's 13th all-time in games managed, by the end of the season he'll pass Walter Alston for 11th. One more year and he passes Casey Stengel for 9th! But I do believe it is time to groom his replacement, which I'm convinced will be Jose Alguacil. This is Boch's 23rd season, if he does 2018 and 2019 that's 25 years, quite a milestone. We'll have a new manager in 2020--that's my guess.
I hate to think about tanking a season in May. I've been giving myself until May 30 which is the 1/3 mark, 54th game. No matter what they do in the 108 games after that they'll have to get their heads out of their asses before then! So far I'm not seeing signs of that, which is a bummer.
Over many years, I have seen the giants blow some big leads, and over the years make some big comebacks. But this team is losing at times games they should win and many games that they have lost the lead. They also are now losing games like a last place club not in the games. For the first time in years this team is not hitting on the road. And the top brass failed to get that one more piece of the offensive link. something they have done under previous iterations of administrator general managers. The one bright spot so far is Arroyo. I don't know, I just cannot rap my head around hitting 360 with over 80 at bats, having a guy like Belt with a decent OBP in front of you and having only 5 RBI, which is the same number that A.J. Dickey has so far this year. We need a real cleanup hitter. As the team falters, they seem to lose some of the respect from the umps when it comes to close pitches in the strike zone. It is not too late to turn it around but everyday they do not it becomes more unlikely. Bochy may be one of the top managers all time, but he cannot seem to get this group of guys going. Maybe they need to pretend that it is the last 4 games of the season and they need every game to make the playoffs. You would think that the loss to the Cubs would have motivated these guys. They do not seem to do the little things this year to win games. Something they had done well for a long time under Bochy. Are they not buying into his approach anymore? Has this group collectively gotten worse? Hoping for the best, but not expecting it at this point. With that being said. a ten game win streak could change things in a major way.
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