MLB and the Faustian Bargain

"I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!"

 

Major League Baseball knew they were playing with fire when they jumped into bed with gamblers. Now it has come back to bite them in the ass. Cleveland Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz will be banned for life and will probably serve jail sentences because they rigged prop bets in games. The payoffs were chump change for a guy making millions (Clase signed a 4-yr, $20M deal in 2022). In Ortiz' case, he would be arb-eligible next year and was making $782K this year and was looking at potential millions down the road.

Gambling is stupid. But if people want to piss their money away then they will. So, the best thing to do is make gambling hard. Or at least inconvenient. There has to be something annoying or irritating about betting on sports (or anything else) because that will discourage some of the more destructive behaviors. I'm not opposed to legal gambling. I just think it should not be done on your fucking smartphone! Make people go to a casino, an OTB, a sportsbook, whatever. And for god's sake don't advertise the "apps" during the games!

In baseball what matters is what goes on between the lines. The Dodgers are going to outspend everyone. The Yankees will attract more talent than a smaller-market club. The financial structure of the game can be seen as "unfair." So what! If the games are legit, that is, the umpires call the balls-and-strikes without outside influence, then the advantages are smaller. A cheap, no-name club can still beat the big shots. That's all a fan really wants, to know that their plucky underdogs can win because everyone is playing by the same rules on the same "level" playing field.

The owners are a sad bunch. They have all the fucking money in the world and it's not enough. They have to monetize every goddamn thing they touch. The game is already awash with corporate billions, there was no need to get into the gambling business. It's ugly and it's stupid.

Anyway, that's my thoughts for the day.

--M.C.

 

 

p.s. the line is from Casablanca if you aren't familiar with the movie (policeman Paul Henreid shuts down Humphrey Bogart's nightclub for illegal gambling while having his own winnings handed to him)

On to 2026

Although I am loath to discuss the Dodgers winning the World Series, I must say it was a compelling contest. You really couldn't ask for better baseball. It came down to one run in extra innings—you can't get much closer than that! I liked the way the Blue Jays put the ball in play and peppered the whole field with hits. That's fun to watch. LA was able to leverage their advantage in starting pitching and home run hitting to defend their title. They made some big plays in the field, too.

Anyway, on to 2026. I'm pasting some stuff from MLBTR below. It's all the important dates and deadlines until the new season. The Giants will host the Yankees to open the year.

 

NOVEMBER 2: Free agency begins for eligible players, but they aren’t permitted to sign with other teams for at least five days. Free agents no longer count against their previous teams’ 40-man rosters. Trades of players who were on the 40-man roster reopen for the first time since last summer’s deadline.

NOVEMBER 2: Gold Glove winners announced.

NOVEMBER 6: Free agents are eligible to sign with any team. All players or teams with contractual options/opt-out clauses must make their decisions by this evening. Teams have until 4:00 pm Central to decide whether to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents.

NOVEMBER 6-7: Silver Slugger winners announced. The National League winners will be revealed on the 6th, while the American League honorees will be awarded on the 7th.

NOVEMBER 10-13: General managers meetings in Las Vegas, Nevada. The GM Meetings typically lay the groundwork for the offseason rather than spurring much roster movement in themselves. They’re nevertheless significant as an opportunity for media to speak with high-level executives, which can shed some light on teams’ goals for the winter.

NOVEMBER 10: Rookie of the Year award winners announced.

NOVEMBER 11: Manager of the Year award winners announced.

NOVEMBER 12: Cy Young award winners announced.

NOVEMBER 13: MVP award winners announced.

NOVEMBER 13: Reliever of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year and Hank Aaron award winners announced. All-MLB teams revealed.

NOVEMBER 18: Players have until 3:00 pm Central to decide whether to accept the qualifying offer. If they accept, they’ll return to their previous team on a one-year, $22.025MM contract. Players who accept a QO, like all major league free agent signees, cannot be traded without their consent until June 15. Those who decline the QO are tied to draft compensation. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently covered what each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent and the penalties that teams would pay to sign a player who declined a QO.

NOVEMBER 18: Rule 5 protection deadline. Teams have until this date to add players who would otherwise be eligible for the Rule 5 draft to their 40-man roster to keep them out of the draft.

NOVEMBER 18-20: Quarterly owners meetings in New York. Commissioner Rob Manfred typically speaks with reporters at this time.

NOVEMBER 21: Non-tender deadline at 7:00pm Central. Teams must decide whether to offer contracts to the arbitration-eligible and pre-arbitration players on their 40-man roster. They do not need to agree to salaries by this date, but there’ll be a flurry of salary agreements as players who might otherwise be non-tender candidates often lock in deals at slightly lesser than projected salaries to avoid being cut loose. Players who are non-tendered immediately become free agents without going through waivers.

DECEMBER 7-10: Winter Meetings in Orlando, Florida. The Winter Meetings are the offseason’s busiest few days and annually feature ample free agent and trade activity.

DECEMBER 7: Hall of Fame Contemporary Baseball Era Players Committee announcement. Formerly known as the Veterans Committee, the 16-person panel votes on eight candidates who were not previously inducted into Cooperstown by the Baseball Writers Association of America. The eight candidates under consideration are usually announced in early November; those who receive at least 12 votes on December 7 are elected to the Hall of Fame. This year’s committee will consider only players whose greatest contributions came in the 1980s or later.

DECEMBER 9: Amateur draft lottery. The White Sox have the best chance of securing the first overall pick at 27.8% (h/t to Baseball America). The Rockies, Nationals and Angels are not allowed to pick higher than 10th. The CBA prohibits teams from having lottery picks in three straight years, which rules out Colorado. Clubs that do not receive revenue sharing cannot pick in the lottery in consecutive seasons, ruling out Washington and Los Angeles.

DECEMBER 10: The Rule 5 draft will conclude the Winter Meetings. Players selected must stay on their new teams’ active rosters for the entire ’26 season or be offered back to their original organization.

DECEMBER 15: Closing of the 2025 signing period for international amateurs.

JANUARY 8: Teams and arbitration-eligible players exchange salary filing figures. They’re free to continue negotiating beyond this date, though virtually every team treats this as an unofficial deadline to avoid an arbitration hearing unless they sign a multi-year contract.

JANUARY 15: Opening of the 2026 signing period for international amateurs. The majority of the international signings for the year will be announced on this date, as virtually all the top prospects have reached handshake agreements by this point.

JANUARY 21: Baseball Writers’ Association of America Hall of Fame announcement at 5:00 pm Central.

EARLY FEBRUARY TBA: Arbitration hearings. Arbitrators must choose either the team’s or player’s filing figure, not a midpoint.

FEBRUARY 11: Voluntary report date to Spring Training for pitchers and catchers.

FEBRUARY 15: Voluntary report date to Spring Training for other players.

FEBRUARY 20: Mandatory report date. Spring Training play begins.

MARCH 25: Yankees @ Giants standalone game on Opening Night.

MARCH 26: Opening Day for the other 28 teams.

 

--M.C. 

(https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/the-2025-26-offseason-begins.html)

It's Vitello

The Giants have yet to make the official announcement* but there's a picture of Coach V on the website and an article about the "near deal" in place.

Also, MLBTR has a confirmation from Tennessee AD Danny White that Vitello is leaving.

Amateur teams are not run by managers but rather by (head) coaches. Only professional teams have managers. Tony Vitello's entire baseball experience, from player to head coach, has taken place in the amateur realm. This is very unusual in MLB circles. Most managers come with professional experience of some kind.

It seems that Buster is a bust-a-move kinda guy. He doesn't sit back and make safe choices. He goes "all-in" on his vision. He shimmies when everyone else is still shakin'.

I think there are a few things happening. One, Buster believes players come to the big leagues not fully ready to play. They need more coaching, more development. Funny, that was Gabe Kapler's schtick! It didn't go over well. Vitello will need a different approach. Two, Buster thinks the team isn't sufficiently on top of the "little things" that come up in every game. Fundamentals and situational awareness, stuff like that. He wants a hyper-attentive captain at the helm.

Finally, the college game is increasingly professionalized. It's entirely invaded by corporate interests. Athletic budgets are in absurd territories. The whole NIL thing along with the transfer "portal" and all that crap has fundamentally changed the game. I remember when the College World Series was strictly for baseball nerds. I suspect there will be more movement between MLB and the NCAA going forward. 

Congratulations to Tony Vitello for nailing the job. Welcome to the Giants! And welcome to BusterTime™, Giants fans. Get used to the big and the bold from our kick-ass PoBO.

--M.C.

 

*they did so just a few minutes past noon Pacific Time

O Canada

The Blue Jays come from behind to nip the Mariners and secure their World Series berth. I think they are a better match for the Dodgers, but I was hoping for Seattle. LA looks like the easy favorite here with their formidable starting rotation. Time to break out the Molson's or whatever passes for Canadian brew these days.

I suppose we'll hear about the new manager soon.

--M.C.

Tony Vitello?

 MLBTR says the Giants are going to hire Tony Vitello to be the next manager.

I mentioned him earlier as a "dark horse" candidate. He's the head coach at Tennessee and has a spectacular NCAA resumé. College coaches don't usually become MLB managers. But guys don't usually throw six shutout innings and hit three homers in the same game, either. Lots of things are possible.

Buster is going to do things his way! (Assuming the rumor is true, of course.)

--M.C.

Bye-bye BoMel

In keeping with the old baseball adage "ya gotta blame somebody!" Giants PoBO Buster Posey fired manager Bob Melvin. Earlier in the year it was reported that the Giants had picked up Melvin's option for 2026. I thought that meant they were giving him one more go-round. Apparently not! Matt Williams (third base) and Ryan Christenson (bench coach) are gone as well. Could be more coaching shake-ups to come.

Buster doesn't like to mess around. He's not very patient. I suppose if you are Rookie of the Year and win the World Series in your first season in the majors you develop a NOW mentality. Buster wants to win NOW.

This team should have done better. I suppose changing the skipper is one way to address that. Posey has made his impact on the team with the big free agent signing of Willy Adames and the blockbuster mid-season trade for Rafael Devers. Now he gets to hand-pick his manager. I'm insanely curious! Who does he think will do a better job?

The Twins fired their manager (Rocco Baldelli), too.

--M.C.

#81, #30, and #15

SF 4  COL 0

The Giants get their 81st win and thus avoid a losing season. It's not a winning season, of course. But it's not a losing season, either! That's something at least.

Willy Adames gave the home crowd a thrill with a leadoff homer. Nice move by BoMel to put him in the first slot. The home run was his 30th and that breaks the infamous team-wide 30-homer drought. Barry Bonds hit 45 in 2004 and that's the last time a Giants player has cracked the 30 mark. Brandon Belt had 29 in 97 games in 2021. Matt Chapman had 27 last year.

Logan Webb started but was pulled after 5-1/3 innings. The team hung on to complete the shutout and Webb got his 15th win for the season. That matches his career high from 2022. Webb finishes with 207 IP, the most in MLB (Garret Crochet had 205-1/3). He also has the most starts (34) and is tied with Crochet and Christopher Sánchez for the most Quality Starts (22). He struck out a career-high 224 which trails only Crochet (255) and Tarik Skubal (241) for the MLB lead (it's the most in the NL).

Spencer Bivens earned the save with two hitless innings. He gave up a walk in the 8th but struck out the side in the 9th. He entered with a 2-0 lead and the Giants got two more in the 9th. That's two saves this weekend for Bivens and 53 appearances (79 IP) overall. He's got some gnarly-looking stuff and it looks like he'll be in the mix for a high-leverage role in 2026. 

Here are the Giants W-L records for the last four seasons (since they won 107 and the West in 2021): 81-81 in 2022, 79-83 in 2023, 80-82 last year, and 81-81 this year. I think that is the very definition of "mediocrity." At least they aren't the Rockies! Anyway, it would be nice to see this group win some games next season. There's enough talent to compete with teams like the Reds, the Mets, the Cardinals, and the Diamondbacks. The five-way scrum for the final Wild Card ended up with the Giants on the bottom! They were a better team than that and should have finished strong with a real shot at the post-season.

There will be plenty to talk about in the off-season, of course. We'll get around to it, I'm sure. In the meantime I will root for Milwaukee to go all the way. How can you not root for a club called the BREWERS? If not them then someone like Cleveland or Seattle.

Thanks for reading along,

 --M.C.