Opening Day for the San Francisco Giants will be in Cincinnati tomorrow afternoon. Game time is 1:10 Pacific. Logan Webb will match up with Hunter Greene. Baseball is finally here!!
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GO GIANTS!!
--M.C.
The biggest news from Spring Training involves two pitchers who were starters last season but now looking at new roles this season. Young southpaw Kyle Harrison made 24 starts as a rookie but will open the season in AAA after being optioned. He's only 23 and can certainly grow and learn and get back to the bigs real soon. Hayden Birdsong had 16 starts last year but will begin this year in the bullpen. He's pitched well in the pre-season but was pipped for the fifth spot by Landen Roupp. Birdsong like Harrison is just 23 so he's got time to develop. The 26-year old Roupp has fewer ML innings than either of his younger teammates but nonetheless edged them out for the coveted final starter position.
Logan Webb of course remains the Number One and he is expected to be among the league leaders in innings again. He's thrown 200+ in both 2023 and 2024. He's a grizzled ace at age 28. Speaking of grizzled, 33-year old lefty Robbie Ray and 42-year old Justin Verlander get the next two spots. Both have Cy Young Awards on their shelves. JV is Cooperstown-bound but it's hard to count on a pitcher in their 40s. That being said I would not be surprised by a resurgence. Maybe 25 starts, 150 IP, and 2+ WAR? Is that unrealistic? Robbie Ray is just as hard to project. If he can stay healthy and deliver 30 starts he could be Robin to Webb's Batman and the Dynamic Duo could make an impact on the pennant race.
The fourth spot goes to Jordan Hicks. I really liked this move when Farhan Zaidi signed the converted reliever. Hicks has dominant stuff and wanted to re-invent himself as a starter. The experiment worked for a while then collapsed. I appreciate a ballplayer who steps outside of his comfort zone! We'll see if he can find his way in 2025. Perhaps a different usage pattern would help. Most guys don't like a mixed starter/reliever role but we've seen it work. Yusmeiro Petit might be one of the best guys ever to do that. He's proof it's possible!
There's now some depth in the organization. Keaton Winn, Mason Black, Tristan Beck and The Carsons (Whisenhunt, Seymour, and Ragsdale) will all be in Sacramento with Harrison. That bodes well for the future.
--M.C.
The Giants have the best record in the Cactus League. Too bad it doesn't count! But I have to take it as a good sign. The team had few questions going into Spring Training and those seem to be getting answered.
The left side of the infield (Willy Adames at SS and Matt Chapman and 3B) will be very strong. Adames isn't Francisco Lindor but he's in the top ten of MLB shortstops. Having an athletic fielder at SS who also hits and hits for power is now de riguer for a ballclub. Defensive specialists are lower on the depth charts these days. Chapman is even more elite--certainly a top five player. He's up there with guys like Austin Riley and Jose Ramirez. Giants pitchers will love these gloves behind them.
Jung Hoo Lee in center field is the next best player on the team. It's not hard to see him as a 3+ WAR player if he's healthy. Heliot Ramos had a nice breakout last year and earned himself the starting LF job. The MLB average K% (SO/PA) is about 23%. Ramos came in at 26% last year. Walk rates (BB/PA) average 8-9%, Ramos was at 7% in 2024. So--is he poised to improve or regress? If you can answer that you can have Buster's job! Mike Yastrzemski, who has been remarkably consistent in his time with the Giants, will be the right fielder. He's usually easy to project (2+ WAR) but at age 34 time could be catching up with him.
At first base the platoon of LaMonte Wade, Jr. and Wilmer Flores looks great on paper. Mr. OBP and Mr. Lefty-masher should be productive. Flores, unfortunately, had his worst season ever in 2024 on the heels of his best-ever season in 2023. Injuries robbed Wade's power in 2024 but he maintained his excellent on-base skills. The big question mark is young Tyler Fitzgerald. Like Ramos he had a nice breakout but his high K-rate (31%) is concerning. Both players benefited from some high-BABIP luck that ran out as the season came to a close. Fitz probably has enough power to hold on to his job even if he struggles a bit. He's the starting second baseman for 2025.
Catching is Patrick Bailey's bailiwick. He's a glove wizard but has yet to establish himself as a consistent hitter. He's looked good this spring cutting down his strikeouts and getting his average up. With Jerar Encarnacion fracturing his wrist the DH slot looks less certain. We'll probably see a rotation of sorts.
It's not a lineup that will strike fear in the hearts of opposing teams but it ought to be competent. The NL West is so loaded that getting a playoff spot will be tough even with an improved win total. This team will need to play great defense and get good pitching (that's the next post).
Check out this nice article about Buster Posey from Alden Gonzalez at ESPN (h/t Baseball Musings). He's a very competitive fellow, as you would imagine. This isn't his team quite yet. The roster was mostly built by his predecessor. His first task will be to get the best out of the players he has.
--M.C.
The Giants played a good, crisp game to start their exhibition season. It's just the kind of game we hope to see a lot of from this young team. Highlights were many today. Jung Hoo Lee smoked the first pitch he saw for a line drive single. Landen Roupp got the start and threw two scoreless with three whiffs. Catcher Sam Huff hit a homer to give the Giants an early lead (veteran non-roster invitee Jake Lamb was on base). A Luis Matos RBI hit made it 3-0 in the 5th. Four Giants pitchers (NRIs Enny Romero, Kai-Wei Teng, Joel Peguero, and Cole Waites) kept the Rangers off the board with two hits, no walks, and five strikeouts. Raymond Burgos gave up a homer in the 7th but NRI Miguel Diaz put up a zero in the bottom of the 8th.
Then the fun started. Super-prospect Bryce Eldridge hit a monster homer to center with one out and one on to make it 5-1 Giants. It was the kind of moonshot everyone was hoping to see the 20-year old launch this spring. He struck out in his first at-bat but recovered from an 0-2 hole in the second at-bat to impress the crowd. And the announcers. Jon Miller and Duane Kuiper were pretty excited. After that Grant McCray hit a homer to left! I think we all want to see the speedster "serve notice" and make the squad. NRI Justin Garza finished up.
It was good to see Brett "Maverick" Wisley get two hits. Casey Schmitt added a knock as well. These guys are already on the 40-man roster (like Roupp, Matos, McCray, and Huff). Wisley, as a lefty hitter, has a good shot at a bench spot.
Logan Webb gets his first start tomorrow (Reds, 12:05 PT). Go Giants!
--M.C.
The schedule page on the Giants website says today is the first "full-squad" workout. And that the first Spring game will be on Saturday (against the Rangers).
What am I hoping for? That the Giants Youth Movement will take a step forward. Right now we have C Patrick Bailey (25) anchoring the defense. Up the middle is 2B Tyler Fitzgerald (27) and CF Jung Hoo Lee (26). LF Heliot Ramos (25) will flank Lee, with Luis Matos (23), Marco Luciano (23), Grant McCray (24), and Wade Meckler (24) in the wings.
The biggest prospect in the system is lefty slugging 1B Bryce Eldridge who is still only 20 years of age. Perhaps we'll see him later in the season if he lights it up at AAA. The same goes for the other big prospect, lefty pitcher Carson Whisenhunt (24). He is a likely late-season call-up, too. Both are non-roster invites to this year's camp. I hope they turn some heads this spring! By the way Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs released his Top 100 Prospects list. Eldridge came in at #26 and Whisenhunt at #95.
On the pitching side there are certainly a lot of youngsters. Logan Webb is still only 28 and in his prime but he's a seasoned veteran at this point. A big step forward from lefty starter Kyle Harrison (23) will be huge for the club. The same goes for young righty starter Hayden Birdsong (23). Big expectations are out there for another young lefty, reliever Erik Miller (27), currently the only southpaw in the 'pen. Ryan Walker is 29, but only a third-year player, and Camilo Doval is still only 27. Sean Hjelle (27), Tristan Beck (28), Keaton Winn (27), and Randy Rodriguez (25) round out the choices.
That's a lot of upside!
The Giants didn't do much in the off-season. Getting Willy Adames was a no-brainer. They really needed a real shortstop. He will make a great tandem with 3B Matt Chapman. (Team defense was a serious problem last year.) And Justin Verlander will probably deliver a solid season. Buster Posey will be fielding Farhan Zaidi's team, for the most part. We aren't going to know what kind of PoBO Posey will be for a while as he has yet to construct a roster.
The Giants have wallowed in mediocrity since their fabulous 2021 NL West title. Yaz, Wilmer, Webb, Doval, Tyler Rogers, and Wade, Jr. are the only ones left from that team. It's time for some winning ways. Let's hope the Youth Movement pays off in 2025!
--M.C.
FanGraphs has released its projected standings and playoff odds for 2025. The Giants, as you might expect, are predicted to be a .500 (81-81) team!
The NL West will be dominated by the Dodgers, again no surprise there, and the second-best team is expected to be the Diamondbacks. That's not unreasonable given their two top starters and their quality lineup. What's interesting to Giants fans is that the Padres are looking vulnerable. The Giants have a real shot at third place.
Sorry for the poor picture. Click the links above to see the whole thing. Or click on the image to enlarge it.
Going from a .500 team to a playoff team will require at least five more wins. Ten would be better. Last year it took 86 wins (Tigers and Royals) in the AL and it took 89 wins (Mets and Braves) in the NL to make the cut.
Are the 2025 Giants ten games better than the 2024 team? I don't see it. A five game improvement looks possible with the addition of Adames and (we hope) bounce back years from Doval and Ray and continued improvement from Harrison, Fitzgerald, and Ramos.
The 2025 team is relying on internal solutions. The young corps needs to step up and contribute!
--M.C.
p.s. David Pinto at Baseball Musings had a post a while back with a proposal to re-arrange the divisions so more teams have a chance at the playoffs. It's a little rough, but it's a cool idea. It at least addresses some of the things Zo mentioned in his last post.
I think the Giants should sign free agent right-hander Jack Flaherty to a short-term deal. (I'll take almost anyone on a short-term deal.) He's going to give you 25-30 starts with above-average results. Flaherty's market is depressed and he needs to prove himself with a good year and then opt-out. Think Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon. (He's not as good as those guys, but that's okay.) It's never bad to have a surplus of starting pitchers.
Right now the Giants are expecting the kind of performance I described for Flaherty from four guys: Ray, Verlander, Hicks, and Harrison. How many of those guys are going to deliver 2+ WAR? Ray did it last in 2022, Verlander in 2023, and neither Hicks nor Harrison pulled it off last year. After that they have a nice group of youngsters—by definition unproven—like Roupp, Birdsong, Black, Rodriguez, etc. I like this group of hurlers but there's a heapin' pile of uncertainty there! Even Flaherty, an eight-year veteran, has exhibited big swings in seasonal WAR totals. There are red flags with him, like declining velocity, but he'd be relatively cheap. He's not going to get the multi-year deal he wanted. And San Francisco is a great place for pitchers.
Really all of this is to say I'd like to see one more starting pitcher added to the mix. I don't believe free agent veterans "block" prospects and young players. It's a performance-oriented workplace. If you deliver the goods you get to play. If the youngsters want time on the field then they have to shine on the field. Am I right? And it's just money. The Giants have plenty. They can afford to take a risk on a veteran pitcher because they need the depth to compete with the other teams in the NL West.
I think they need another position player/DH type for some more thump in the lineup. Or at least some more competition in Spring Training. Somebody like Randal Grichuk is a free agent and he's actually been linked to the Giants. Austin Hays, Tommy Pham, Jorge Polanco, and Paul DeJong are other examples of low-cost free agent players available at this point. Alex Bregman, Ha-Seong Kim, and Pete Alonso are the "big names" left on the board. None would be a fit. Bregman because of length and cost, Kim because Adames and Fitzgerald are already at SS an 2B, and Alonso because he's too limited, and they have Wade and Flores as a platoon pair.
These aren't exciting propositions. We aren't buying a new car, just getting some upgrades on the old one. Right now the Giants look like they've looked for the last three seasons: fair-to-middling with an outside shot at being good enough to get a post-season berth. A couple of breakout seasons from the youth brigade and it's a different story. I know we'd all like to see that!
--M.C.
