Cool Giants

The Giants signed flame-throwing Jordan Hicks on the 12th of January. It looked like things were heating up. Alas, it has since been quiet on the player acquisition front. There have been a few smaller moves, at least one that's intriguing, but nothing addressing the team's weak spots. The Giants picked up a 26-year old righty named Tommy Romero who was once a notable prospect in the Rays system. His MLB time is scant (8-1/3 IP, 44 TBF) but scary (9 BB, 7 HR). Like I said, intriguing. They added Cooper Hummel, a switch-hitting left-fielder who also catches. He's the backup for Blake Sabol, I suppose. Does this put Joey Bart on the trade block? MLBTR thinks so. (They also think teams are "showing interest" in Brandon Crawford.)

While Zaidian tinkering around the edges of the roster is necessary, it doesn't fill the fans with enthusiasm. They need another starter. They need another infielder—a shortstop, actually. Don't you think? And it wouldn't hurt to add a bat, just to give the fans something to get excited about. J.D. Davis is the only arb-eligible player who is unsigned. I wonder if that's just a small sticking point in negotiations as the Giants usually wrap all that stuff up early. If they are really interested in Matt Chapman, as has been reported all off-season, that would make Davis redundant. Are they positioning themselves for a trade? Davis led the team in games (144), plate appearances (546), strikeouts (152), and grounding into double plays (16). His .248/.325/.413 is solidly league average (104 wRC+). FanGraphs credited him with good defense and 2.2 fWAR while Baseball-Reference knocked his glove and pegged him at 0.9 bWAR. Chapman is a slight hitting upgrade but is usually rated very high for his fielding. Both men turn 31 in April.

I suppose I'll leave the strategic thinking to the team brass, after all they get paid to do it. This blogging stuff is strictly amateur. I've been away from my desk and unable to write but there's been nothing noteworthy so I didn't miss anything. We all saw the Dusty Baker news. The Giants have this unfortunate image of the team nobody wants to play for. It's bullshit of course, just media jive, but you have to deal with it. Dusty is well-loved all over the game and he puts a welcoming face on the Giants brand. That'll help.

The calendar says February 15th for the first Pitchers & Catchers workout and February 20th for the first Full Squad workout. The first Spring Game is on the 24th. I'm ready for some baseball, how about you?

--M.C.

Big Heat

Jordan Hicks throws as hard as anyone in baseball. He averages just over 100 mph on both his four-seam fastball (which has hit 105!) and his bread-and-butter, a sinking two-seamer. He also has an 86-mph slider. His career 60% ground ball rate is Webb-like. It's easy to see why the Giants are interested, and in fact they signed him to a four-year, $44M deal.

Hicks has logged only 243 innings in 212 games over five seasons with the Cardinals and Blue Jays. He made eight starts in 2022 but has otherwise been a reliever. He turned 27 in September. Like a lot of flamethrowers he walks a lot of guys and is an injury risk. He had TJS in 2019.

Oh, but that talent! I think that's what this deal is all about. Reaching free agency at a relatively young age makes Hicks a better-than-average risk. The peak years for most ballplayers are ages 26-29 or thereabouts. The Giants see starter potential and want to put him in the rotation.

I was reading something on Tom Tango's blog about predictive wOBA (I know, pretty nerdy stuff), and he introduced the column with this tidbit:

Hitting a 450 foot HR is very indicative of a batter's talent. It shows that he has raw power and it shows that he can really put the barrel on the ball. Hitting a 110 mph high popup to an outfielder for an easy out is also a good indication of a batter's talent. It shows that he has raw power and that a small mistiming is what kept him from hitting a 450 foot HR.

A bloop hit is a better outcome for the team than a pop-out, but a lucky Texas-leaguer doesn't tell you anything about the batter's talent. The major-league pop-up does.

I think the same logic applies to this deal. Hicks has some serious pitching talent. Maybe the outcomes haven't been there, but all the indicators are certainly there. A relatively modest deal for a young major-league arm with lots of upside is OK by me. The rotation is still full of question marks after Logan Webb, but at least the pool of possible answers is getting bigger. I would still like to see them go after Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, and I keep wondering about shortstop, but at least the Hicks signing is something to talk about.

--M.C.

Hey, Robbie Ray

The Giants make their first move of the new year by trading for Seattle lefty Robbie Ray. Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani go to the Mariners.

It's no secret that the Giants need starting pitching. Ray was the AL Cy Young awardee in 2021 and has delivered a mostly strong body of work over his ten seasons. He's thrown 1228 innings in 226 games (222 starts) with excellent strikeout numbers (1505 total, 11 K/9, 28.9%). Lifetime he sports a 3.96 ERA and 4.07 FIP. He made one start last year before a flexor strain (followed by Tommy John surgery) ended his season.

It's an interesting risk for the Giants. Ray is 32 and missed a lot of playing time in 2020 as well. He's signed (@$25M/yr.) through 2026. They relieved themselves of some salary by sending away Haniger ($20M) and DeSclafani ($12M). The Giants are sending cash ($3M) to the Mariners as well. If Ray is healthy he will be a solid addition. Unfortunately I'm not clear on when Ray will be available to pitch--recovery from TJS takes a long time. Alex Cobb will open the season on the IL and the other arms after ace Logan Webb are unproven rookies (Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn, Tristan Beck).

I'm glad to see the transaction wire heating up in San Francisco. I hope they will continue to pursue another starter, and they'll have to do something about shortstop, don't you think?

Meanwhile, welcome to the Giants, Robbie Ray!

--M.C.