26 for '26

There aren't any notable position battles for the 2026 San Francisco Giants Opening Day 26-man roster. The infield is set. Rafael Devers will man first base and Luis Arráez will handle second base. Willy Adames will be the shortstop and Matt Chapman gets the hot corner.

The outfield looks like Heliot Ramos, Harrison Bader, and Jung Hoo Lee going left-to-right.

 Patrick Bailey will be the catcher. Bryce Eldridge has the inside track on DH.

On the pitching side Logan Webb is the number one and Robbie Ray is the number two. The rest of the starting rotation will be Landen Roupp, Tyler Mahle, and Adrian Houser.

The bullpen has some possible openings. Two guys are signed: JT Brubaker and Sam Hentges. Ryan Walker and Erik Miller will be returning. Then there's José Buttó and Matt Gage who are out of options. Add in Joel Peguero and Spencer Bivens and that's eight guys. So right now Hayden Birdsong, Carson Whisenhunt, Carson Seymour, Blade Tidwell, Keaton Winn, Tristan Beck, Trevor McDonald, etc., etc. are all on the outside looking in. We won't know the final configuration for a few weeks, of course. I see that Birdsong is getting the first start of the Spring tomorrow.

There are some spots on the bench. Daniel Susac (brother of Andrew) seems to be the favorite for backup backstop. The fourth outfielder could Drew Gilbert or Luis Matos or Will Brennan or Grant McCray, or  . . . ? Casey Schmitt could be the utility infielder and adding Jerar Encarnación to the list makes 26. Maybe we have a different catcher or it's Tyler Fitzgerald and/or Christian Koss somewhere.

Like I said there aren't really any interesting position battles. The bullpen is the most unsettled but there seems to be sufficient depth. They will leave some good arms in AAA and that should help when guys get hurt.

The 2026 Giants are largely set.

Whaddya think? Is it enough?

--M.C. 

WTF

The Giants are supposedly bringing in Luis Arráez to play second base. I used to say I would "take anyone on a one or two year deal" but this is a real head-scratcher.

Arráez never strikes out and sprays the ball all over the field. The lefty has won the batting title three times and has a career .317 batting average, best in the sport. He led the NL in hits last season. He's 28 and has over a thousand career hits.

But he's a terrible fielder and doesn't hit for power. What do you do with a guy like that?

I don't want to knock Arráez who really is quite incredible at what he does. It's just that the Giants needed CJ Abrams or Nico Hoerner or Brendan Donovan and we settled for Arráez. It could work, of course. He could get on base at a nice clip and complement the rest of the slugging infield. And maybe Schmitt will thrive in a utility role and we can keep the guys fresh.

Ah well, it's BusterTime™ and in Buster we Truster! 

--M.C.

OF bump

The Giants have agreed to a two-year deal ($21M) with 32-year old free agent centerfielder Harrison Bader. That's going to bump Jung Hoo Lee over to right, I expect. Giants outfield defense, with the exception of the always-smooth Mike Yastrzemksi, was atrocious in 2025.

Bader is a mostly average hitter (RH) with a few years like last season (.277/.347/.449) sprinkled in. His calling card is his glove and he's been outstanding since his debut in 2017. He's suited up for six teams (Cardinals, Yankees, Reds, Mets, Twins, Phillies) and has also logged 76 PA in the post-season (in ten series).

If you think he's a 2-WAR player this is a good deal. Projections of his hitting aren't pretty but he's good for 15 homers and 20 doubles and a dozen stolen bases so he's not useless. It's really all about how you value his fielding. With a spacious outfield and some fly-ball pitchers like Robbie Ray the Giants could certainly benefit from better defense.

The team is still $20M or so under the luxury tax line.

--M.C.

2026

The Giants won't be signing Alex Bregman anytime soon—the ink just dried on his five-year, $170M deal with the Cubs. It may seem nutty to give a 31-year old that kind of scratch but it's actually reasonable. Figure he's a 3-WAR/yr. player and that's 15 WAR over the life of the contract or $11.3M/WAR. A little on the high side perhaps (my baseline is $10M/WAR) but certainly do-able. Projections suggest Bregman may be worth a little more than that. The consensus on FanGraphs was 5 years, $150M so he got a little more than expected although I understand a chunk of it is deferred for salary cap purposes.

Not that I wanted the Giants to sign Alex Bregman. Kyle Tucker on the other hand . . .

We know that's not going to happen. If they were going to give anyone five years and $150M I would like it to be Framber Valdez! After all, Dylan Cease got 7 years and $210M from the Blue Jays. Now THAT is a nutty contract. But Toronto is going "all-in" after just missing out last year and I can't blame them. 

The Giants? Well, they are tinkering around the edges. I don't think anyone is thrilled about beefing up the rotation with two journeymen, but that's the plan for 2026. The team is clearly counting on improvements from (1) the new manager and (2) some youngster(s). Bryce Eldridge? Carson Whisenhunt?

The 2026 Giants have talent. Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, and Logan Webb are all top-flight ballplayers. Jung Hoo Lee and Patrick Bailey are both on the cusp and it's not unreasonable to project improvements from both. And there's Heliot Ramos. It's a make-or-break year for him. I know Buster has publicly "called out" the young pitching corps and he expects someone to emerge as a legit hurler from that group. That would be great, of course. Blade Tidwell? Trevor McDonald? Our old pal Hayden Birdsong?

The Giants could fill their hole at second base by signing Bo Bichette. Sure, it would take a billion dollars, but they have plenty of money. Man, that would be some infield! But this outfit is too buttoned-down Wall Street for that sort of outlay. It's tough to compete with the more free-wheeling clubs like SD and LA but that's the way it goes.

Pitchers and catchers report in just about a month!

--M.C.

Another new pitcher

"Stockpile starters" is a winning strategy in my book and the Giants have made another step in that direction. It isn't sexy or flashy, but it's solid, and the Giants need lots of solid. 31-year old free agent righty Tyler Mahle is signing a one-year deal with the club, it seems. No word on dollars yet. You may remember him from his time with the Reds (2017-2022). He was last with the Rangers so perhaps Ol' Boch recommended him.

The Giants aren't going to sign Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez or any of the front-line free agents. They are going to make some moves around the margins. They will exceed last year's payroll but be well under the tax threshold. I suspect the bean-counters are going to hold the line. We'll have to wait for Spring Training to see if any of the stocking-stuffers emerge as studs because we didn't get any big, shiny presents to open.

Happy New Year, everyone! And remember: "In Buster We Trust(er)."

--M.C.

New pitchers

The Giants signed veteran righty starter Adrian Houser for two years and $22M. He's a ground ball pitcher and had a strong showing last year after a poor season just before that. He's not the flashy ace-type we all covet but he'll add some experience. The Giants also signed righty reliever Jason Foley who is recovering from shoulder surgery. He'll be ready, it seems, by mid-season. Foley was a late inning type in Detroit and even had 28 saves in 2024.

Not very exciting stuff but I'm still going with "In Buster We Trust(er)" as my motto for 2026. 

--M.C.

MLB and the Faustian Bargain

"I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!"

 

Major League Baseball knew they were playing with fire when they jumped into bed with gamblers. Now it has come back to bite them in the ass. Cleveland Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz will be banned for life and will probably serve jail sentences because they rigged prop bets in games. The payoffs were chump change for a guy making millions (Clase signed a 4-yr, $20M deal in 2022). In Ortiz' case, he would be arb-eligible next year and was making $782K this year and was looking at potential millions down the road.

Gambling is stupid. But if people want to piss their money away then they will. So, the best thing to do is make gambling hard. Or at least inconvenient. There has to be something annoying or irritating about betting on sports (or anything else) because that will discourage some of the more destructive behaviors. I'm not opposed to legal gambling. I just think it should not be done on your fucking smartphone! Make people go to a casino, an OTB, a sportsbook, whatever. And for god's sake don't advertise the "apps" during the games!

In baseball what matters is what goes on between the lines. The Dodgers are going to outspend everyone. The Yankees will attract more talent than a smaller-market club. The financial structure of the game can be seen as "unfair." So what! If the games are legit, that is, the umpires call the balls-and-strikes without outside influence, then the advantages are smaller. A cheap, no-name club can still beat the big shots. That's all a fan really wants, to know that their plucky underdogs can win because everyone is playing by the same rules on the same "level" playing field.

The owners are a sad bunch. They have all the fucking money in the world and it's not enough. They have to monetize every goddamn thing they touch. The game is already awash with corporate billions, there was no need to get into the gambling business. It's ugly and it's stupid.

Anyway, that's my thoughts for the day.

--M.C.

 

 

p.s. the line is from Casablanca if you aren't familiar with the movie (policeman Claude Rains shuts down Humphrey Bogart's nightclub for illegal gambling while having his own winnings handed to him)