Monday, March 18, 2024

Giants Sign Blake Snell

Like Matt Chapman, the Giants have been linked to Blake Snell for the entire off-season. Like Matt Chapman, it wasn't just talk. Today it became official. Snell signs a two-year, $62M deal that pays him $15M for 2024 and a $17M bonus down the road if he takes $30M for 2025. It's a crazy Zaidian thing, I know, but it's just fine by me. The Giants needed to beef up the rotation and they signed the best player they could get. Snell is a wild card: when he's good he's the very best; when he's not, he's ordinary. But the reigning NL Cy Young Awardee joins second-place finisher Logan Webb to make a dandy tandem at the top of the rotation. Does this make us contenders?

It's all about Snell's health, of course. If he can pitch he's a dominant presence. Like a lot of today's aces (Jacob deGrom comes to mind) he is often unavailable. That's the risk you take. But it's a worthwhile risk in my mind.

This is the craziest off-season ever, I think. It's a heapin' pile of FNGs!!

Go Giants!

--M.C.

Saturday, March 2, 2024

Hullo, Chap!

Matt Chapman has reportedly signed a three-year deal with the Giants. It's $54M with opt-outs. They've been linked to him for the entire off-season but it took until March to get the deal done. He's the first of the 'Boras Four' to break the ice. According to MLBTR the Giants are "still interested" in Blake Snell.

This is exciting news. Chapman immediately improves the team. It's getting crowded on the infield bench, though. They'll have to move someone--I wonder who? Roster Resource is a great place to ponder such questions. Here's the link.

Snell or not, the Giants need another starter.

--M.C.

Monday, February 26, 2024

BCraw

It is always sad to see a beloved player depart. Brandon Crawford, the greatest shortstop in San Francisco Giants history, will be wearing another uniform this season. It is not a surprise. After two injury-plagued, disappointing seasons the 37-year old lost his spot on the depth chart to young Marco Luciano. I can't fault the team for wanting to move on. At some point all ballplayers show their age. This one is hard because Crawford has been such a fun player to watch all these years. He delivered so many great plays with such routine nonchalance that we all got spoiled and expected him to get everything. A hit past BCraw was a real hit! Speaking of hits, he had a heapin' pile of clutch hits. It seemed like he really thrived in the dramatic moments. And of course he was a key man in a bunch of great teams and two World Series championships. Add in the local boy background and the chill vibe, not to mention the luscious locks, and you have yourself an all-time fan favorite. He will be missed. Best of luck, BCraw!

--M.C.

Sunday, February 25, 2024

Youth Movement?

The Giants opened their Spring Exhibition season with a uninspiring loss to the Cubs. Speaking of the Cubs, Cody Bellinger returns to Chicago on a three-year, $80M deal. Lest you think only the Giants have a thing for opt-outs, Belli's deal includes opt-outs after the first two years. The Giants were linked to J.D. Martinez but opted for Jorge Soler instead. Martinez is still unsigned but will catch on somewhere. Boras Boys Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery are still "in the wings."

Farhan Zaidi has hinted that the Giants are going with the gang they have. We shouldn't expect any more additions to the roster. So, rather than think the club has a glaring hole at shortstop, I've decided FZ & Co. are all-in on the youth movement! Marco Luciano is not yet 23 and has a mere 14 games on his ML-résumé. He signed with the Giants as an international free agent (from the Dominican Republic) in 2018. Young catcher Patrick Bailey has a veteran backup—Tom Murphy—but there isn't a veteran shortstop behind Luciano. The main backup at this point seems to be 25-year old utilityman Otto López who was picked up for cash from the Blue Jays. Or 25-year old 2020 2nd-rounder Casey Schmitt. Not a grizzled mug in the bunch.

Speaking of grizzled, two veteran hurlers are on the shelf until after the All-Star Break. Both FNG Robbie Ray and returning stalwart Alex Cobb are recovering from off-season surgeries. Rather than view this as a glaring hole in the starting rotation, I'm joining the Front Office in their enthusiastic embrace of the youth movement. I like the signing of flamethrowing Jordan Hicks and think his transition from the 'pen could really work. I suspect they'll run him out there until the Break as a stopgap. Hicks will pitch like hell then blow out his arm but the return of the aforementioned Big Two will pick up the slack. He's the rabbit in the race.

After that it is lefty phenom Kyle Harrison, who is also not yet 23, and has 34-2/3 IP in the bigs under his belt. From there it is take-your-pick of Keaton Winn (26, already injured), Tristan Beck (27), Erik Miller (26), Sean Hjelle (26), Kai-Wei Teng (25) and a plethora of up-and-comers like Carson Wisenhunt (23), Landen Roupp (25), Mason Black (24), and Hayden Birdsong (22). Logan Webb is certainly an ace but right now it is a one-man rotation. I really thought they'd sign another veteran arm but it seems clear they will go with the kids. (And the Hicks Experiment.)

This is either folly or supreme self-confidence, I can't tell. I actually love youth movements in general. It is fun to watch young players develop their game. The Giants have been an old, slow bunch lately and that needs to change. But it seems unnecessarily risky to have key spots (SS, SP) manned by inexperienced players. It could all go south in a hurry. I'm okay with that, actually, but on one very important condition. I think the Giants should tell us so. That FZ should say "yes we are entrusting these big responsibilities to rookies." Use the words "youth movement" and "rebuild" in public. He can add "we really like our rookies and expect them to get the job done." That would help!

But teams can't do that. They have to pretend they have a playoff-caliber squad even if they don't. Right now I am excited by Jung-Hoo Lee and Patrick Bailey. I'm intensely interested in Marco Luciano. And of course there is Logan Webb, one of the best in the business. Camilo Doval is among the game's top closers. Thairo Estrada has established himself as the everyday second baseman. There's a lot to like and to be interested in. The rest of the roster is familiar: Slater, Yaz, Wade, Davis, Flores, and Conforto. If healthy, it's a solid mix, and Soler's right-handed pop is a good addition. But after last season's stumbling finish I have to wonder if they did enough despite having an active off-season.

The 1986 team had an advertising slogan: "You Gotta Like These Kids." They ought to think about bringing it back for 2024.

What say you?

--M.C.

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

Bopper

The Giants sign Jorge Soler for three years and $42 million. The righty slugger will slot in as the primary DH and will give the lefty-leaning lineup a real power threat. He hit homers in Miami which is a hard place for right-handed power hitters so I expect the adjustment to Oracle Park will not be a problem. He's a limited player defensively but if he can hit the ball hard regularly he will help the team.

--M.C.

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Cool Giants

The Giants signed flame-throwing Jordan Hicks on the 12th of January. It looked like things were heating up. Alas, it has since been quiet on the player acquisition front. There have been a few smaller moves, at least one that's intriguing, but nothing addressing the team's weak spots. The Giants picked up a 26-year old righty named Tommy Romero who was once a notable prospect in the Rays system. His MLB time is scant (8-1/3 IP, 44 TBF) but scary (9 BB, 7 HR). Like I said, intriguing. They added Cooper Hummel, a switch-hitting left-fielder who also catches. He's the backup for Blake Sabol, I suppose. Does this put Joey Bart on the trade block? MLBTR thinks so. (They also think teams are "showing interest" in Brandon Crawford.)

While Zaidian tinkering around the edges of the roster is necessary, it doesn't fill the fans with enthusiasm. They need another starter. They need another infielder—a shortstop, actually. Don't you think? And it wouldn't hurt to add a bat, just to give the fans something to get excited about. J.D. Davis is the only arb-eligible player who is unsigned. I wonder if that's just a small sticking point in negotiations as the Giants usually wrap all that stuff up early. If they are really interested in Matt Chapman, as has been reported all off-season, that would make Davis redundant. Are they positioning themselves for a trade? Davis led the team in games (144), plate appearances (546), strikeouts (152), and grounding into double plays (16). His .248/.325/.413 is solidly league average (104 wRC+). FanGraphs credited him with good defense and 2.2 fWAR while Baseball-Reference knocked his glove and pegged him at 0.9 bWAR. Chapman is a slight hitting upgrade but is usually rated very high for his fielding. Both men turn 31 in April.

I suppose I'll leave the strategic thinking to the team brass, after all they get paid to do it. This blogging stuff is strictly amateur. I've been away from my desk and unable to write but there's been nothing noteworthy so I didn't miss anything. We all saw the Dusty Baker news. The Giants have this unfortunate image of the team nobody wants to play for. It's bullshit of course, just media jive, but you have to deal with it. Dusty is well-loved all over the game and he puts a welcoming face on the Giants brand. That'll help.

The calendar says February 15th for the first Pitchers & Catchers workout and February 20th for the first Full Squad workout. The first Spring Game is on the 24th. I'm ready for some baseball, how about you?

--M.C.

Friday, January 12, 2024

Big Heat

Jordan Hicks throws as hard as anyone in baseball. He averages just over 100 mph on both his four-seam fastball (which has hit 105!) and his bread-and-butter, a sinking two-seamer. He also has an 86-mph slider. His career 60% ground ball rate is Webb-like. It's easy to see why the Giants are interested, and in fact they signed him to a four-year, $44M deal.

Hicks has logged only 243 innings in 212 games over five seasons with the Cardinals and Blue Jays. He made eight starts in 2022 but has otherwise been a reliever. He turned 27 in September. Like a lot of flamethrowers he walks a lot of guys and is an injury risk. He had TJS in 2019.

Oh, but that talent! I think that's what this deal is all about. Reaching free agency at a relatively young age makes Hicks a better-than-average risk. The peak years for most ballplayers are ages 26-29 or thereabouts. The Giants see starter potential and want to put him in the rotation.

I was reading something on Tom Tango's blog about predictive wOBA (I know, pretty nerdy stuff), and he introduced the column with this tidbit:

Hitting a 450 foot HR is very indicative of a batter's talent. It shows that he has raw power and it shows that he can really put the barrel on the ball. Hitting a 110 mph high popup to an outfielder for an easy out is also a good indication of a batter's talent. It shows that he has raw power and that a small mistiming is what kept him from hitting a 450 foot HR.

A bloop hit is a better outcome for the team than a pop-out, but a lucky Texas-leaguer doesn't tell you anything about the batter's talent. The major-league pop-up does.

I think the same logic applies to this deal. Hicks has some serious pitching talent. Maybe the outcomes haven't been there, but all the indicators are certainly there. A relatively modest deal for a young major-league arm with lots of upside is OK by me. The rotation is still full of question marks after Logan Webb, but at least the pool of possible answers is getting bigger. I would still like to see them go after Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, and I keep wondering about shortstop, but at least the Hicks signing is something to talk about.

--M.C.