"Sturdily built"

Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections for the 2023 Giants are available at FanGraphs. The article is worth a look. Here's a graphic:

"The Giants are sturdily built but they are a star or two short on offense." That's the tagline under the article heading.

Here are a few other (cherry-picked) quotes from the piece:

"The Giants are a good team."

"The Giants are solid just about everywhere (ZiPS is uneasy at catcher) and they have depth at nearly every position should injuries strike."

"As with the offense, ZiPS really likes the team's options in both the rotation and the bullpen."

"I think the Giants are an 85-90 win team, which is close enough to probably win the division. Still, I expect a surprise NL West title would come more from disasters in Los Angeles and San Diego than this team's upside."

I think the projection is a reasonable take on the state of the ballclub. I expect we will see an active spring and some interesting moves, particularly with some of the young arms in the system. Keep an eye on Kyle Harrison of course but also R.J. Dabovich and Keaton Winn.

The commenters on FanGraphs were mostly skeptical and thought Szymborski's guess at 85-90 wins was too high. I'm not sure. I thought last year's club had 90-win potential and it managed to win 81 despite what I thought was some really terrible luck. The Giants don't look very sexy, but I bet they will be tougher than most people expect. And the roster is not complete. Pitchers and catchers have their first workout on February 16th. Just around the corner!

--M.C.

Four-point-six Million Dollar Man

Logan Webb entered his first arbitration-eligible off-season on the heels of a terrific 2022 (4.7 bWAR, 4.2 fWAR) season. This followed his superb 2021 season which included two epic starts against the Dodgers in the playoffs. The Giants like to avoid arbitration hearings and they settled with Webb for $4.6M for his 2023 season. I still think they should buy out the rest of his arb-years (2024-25) and his early free agency (2026-) with a long-term deal. I think a five-year commitment to the young homegrown ace would be great.

The Giants also avoided arbitration with John Brebbia, Jakob Junis, Austin Slater, J.D. Davis, LaMonte Wade, Jr., Tyler Rogers, and Thairo Estrada. They earlier inked deals with Mike Yastrzemski and Scott Alexander who were also arb-eligible. Take a look at Cot's Contracts or Roster Resource if you want to see the breakdowns. Brebbia, Junis, and Alexander are all free agents in 2024, Davis and Slater in 2025, while Yaz, Rogers, and Wade, Jr. are the same as Webb (2026). Estrada is team-controlled until 2027. For comparison both Joey Bart and Camilo Doval are pre-arb: their clocks start in 2025 and they reach free agency in 2028.

I should note that Young Logan has said he will pitch in the World Baseball Classic which will take place in March. Here are the dates and the format. They have pitch count limits and pitcher rest rules for the tournament. Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks and Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers are also listed for Team USA.

Pitchers and catchers are supposed to have their first workout on February the 16th. This spring I will be very interested in the catching corps. There will likely be some intriguing NRIs to evaluate. And I am especially excited about lefty phenom Kyle Harrison. Imagine a staff with two homegrown aces!

--M.C.

Adios, BB

Brandon Belt made his debut with the San Francisco Giants on March 31st, 2011. He got a hit and a walk in a 2-1 loss at Dodger Stadium. He hit his first home run the next day in a 4-3 loss. He turned 23 a few weeks later. He was the full-time starting first baseman the next season, playing 145 games and slashing .275/.360/.421 good for 2.8 bWAR. The Giants won the World Series, if you remember. He had an even better year in 2013. Injuries limited him to 61 games in 2014 but he returned for the post-season and hit one of the most memorable homers in franchise history in the LDS against the Nationals, breaking a tie in the 18th inning. He was also on the receiving end of the greatest double play in World Series history a few weeks later. He had eight hits in that seven-game win over Kansas City. He continued to be productive and was an All-Star in 2016. Injuries took their toll and he lost a lot of playing time over the next several years. In the end, over 12 seasons, he played in 1310 games and had 5079 plate appearances. He hit 175 homers, scored 628 runs, and racked up 2010 total bases. His career slash line in orange-and-black was .261/.356/.458. That's 27.3 bWAR (25.1 fWAR) with a 123 OPS+ (124 wRC+).

Not bad for a fifth-round draft pick!

Belt's gap power was curtailed by the big dimensions in San Francisco and his trips to the IL also dinged his "counting stats" but there is no doubt he was an excellent major-league player. A look at his 2020 COVID-shortened season numbers (.309/.425/.591) and his injury-shortened 2021 campaign (.274/.378/.597 with 29 HR in 97 G) shows that he retained his elite skills even at ages 32 and 33. A smooth defender at first with a strong, accurate arm he and fellow-Brandon BCraw anchored the Giants infield for a decade. Belt's balky knee ended that run of superb play in 2022 and he entered the off-season with a lot of uncertainty about his career. Apparently he healed up enough for Toronto to take a flyer on him in 2023 for $9M.

Belt was a polarizing figure for Giants fans. His awkwardness and goofy charm endeared him to a lot of people (all that "Captain" stuff was hilarious!) but his batting style (patient, selective, gap hitter) did not fly for a franchise that expects lefty first basemen to be Will Clark or Willie McCovey. Certainly he was not those players--he could be only himself. He was not Joey Votto or Paul Goldschmidt--two likely HOFers--either but he was only a notch below them and can look back on a fine NL career. If future Giants draft picks can play 1000+ games and hit 20% better than the league average then the front office will be certifiable geniuses!

Adios, BB. Thanks for all the great baseball.

--M.C.

Free agent catchers

I suppose there is always a chance that Austin Wynns will re-sign with Giants on a minors deal but right now the only major-leaguer on the roster is Joey Bart. The backups are all minor-leaguers. Here's a quick run-down of the key remaining free agent backstops:

Jorge Alfaro, 29-year old RH from Colombia, 478 G (409 C), 1658 PA, .256/.305/.383;

Robinson Chirinos, 38-year old RH from Venezuela, 714 G (668 C), 2457 PA, .226/.319/.419;

Sandy León, 33-year old SH from Venezuela, 533 G (497 C), 1685 PA, .210/.278/.314;

Roberto Pérez, 34-year old RH from Puerto Rico,  511 G (501 C), 1752 PA, .207/.298/.360;

Kevin Plawecki, 32-year old RH from Illinois, 447 G (406 C), 1426 PA, .235/.313/.341;

Gary Sánchez, 30 year old RH from the Dominican Rep., 666 G (548 C), 2665 PA, .225/.311/.467;

Luis Torrens, 27-year old RH from Venezuela, 251 G (156 C), 777 PA, .226/.288/.354.

There's also Rob Brantly, Zack Collins, Aramis Garcia, Jose Lobaton, Brian O'Keefe, and Kurt Suzuki.

Here's David Laurila talking to Blake Sabol who the Giants picked up in a trade with the Reds (he was originally a Pirates prospect). Sabol is described as "versatile defensively" with a "plus bat." He's listed as the backup catcher on the Giants 40-man. Here's his B-R site.

--M.C.