Big Business

Forbes came out with their annual rankings of MLB clubs. The Yankees are #1 with an estimated value of $6B. The Dodgers are #2 at just over $4B with the Red Sox and Cubs third and fourth at just under $4B. The San Francisco Giants come in at #5 with a valuation of $3.5B. That's three-and-a-half BILLION dollars!

 

https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#header:valueList_sortreverse:true
 

Did you ever think the Giants would be one of the elite, big-name franchises? When you were shivering in Candlestick watching another hapless squad with a few thousand other lunatics, did you imagine this day would come?

Anyway, the Giants are projected to spend about $170M in 2022, well under the $230M cap. I suspect some fans would like to see the team leverage their wealth and prestige and attract some big-name stars (especially some RH power!). But FZ and ownership seem committed to the boring, sensible route which is finding lower-cost ways to get (almost) the same thing.

If those savings are going into the farm system, scouting, analytics, facilities, player development, etc. then I'm all for it. The Dodgers and Yankees both have continuous talent pipelines. They can fill most needs from within and trade the surplus for more prospects or for veteran players. And they can spend the monster bucks to get Mookie Betts or Gerrit Cole. I think the Giants aren't quite there. It feels like they are creating a stronger talent base, and learning how to coach players to get their best efforts, but it is still a work in progress. They don't--yet--have the surpluses of The Big Two. It's the talent surplus that allows LA and NY to take risks with big contracts. Even if the signings are a bust they will still have talented ballplayers to fill the holes.

107 wins last year showed that the Giants can build a winner. Now they get to keep it going.

Eight more Spring games before the season starts on April 8th.

--M.C.

The lineup

If you take a look at FanGraph's Roster Resource (an essential, go-to site) you'll see that the 2022 Giants lineup will look a lot like the 2021 Giants lineup. The team's starting rotation got a makeover after the departures of Kevin Gausman and Johnny Cueto but the bullpen stayed pretty much intact. In fact the team added significant pitching depth what with Alex Cobb, Carlos Rodon, Matthew Boyd, Jakob Junis, and Carlos Martinez all joining in the off-season.

The lineup's only new face is Joc Pederson. It's a bit underwhelming. The team has three LH OFs already, namely Mike Yastrzemski, Steven Duggar, and LaMonte Wade, Jr. One thing I've learned though is you can never have enough of something in baseball. Depth is good. I suppose I should note that Yaz has all his options remaining. And that Pederson will likely DH. This team is loaded with lefty hitters. The Giants can send up SEVEN left-handers against RH pitching: La Stella, Belt, BCraw, the three OFs, and Joc. The Giants will be OK against right-handers.

Will the Giants be OK against southpaws? The RHs are Darin Ruf, Evan Longoria, Wilmer Flores, Austin Slater, and the two catchers (Joey Bart and Curt Casali). Mauricio Dubon and Thairo Estrada are righties as are Jaylin Davis and Heliot Ramos. I expect to see a lot of Estrada, I'm not sure what to make of Dubon and Davis, and word is that Ramos is on the fast-track. Losing Buster Posey and Kris Bryant certainly took some thump out of the RH side of the attack.

Those things don't seem to bother Kap and FZ. They like their platooning/matchup style of roster construction. They believe they can get the production they need from what they have. Signing someone like Seiya Suzuki would have been nice but the team seemed more concerned about the rotation than the lineup. Run prevention is the key--improvements there pay off more than on the run-scoring side. Not to mention that the Dodgers will perhaps feature the best lineup in baseball so great pitching will be needed to keep them from running amok.

David Pinto at Baseball Musings posts a run-scoring projection for each team. The Dodgers are looking at a ridiculous 5.7 rpg. The Giants are looking at a more modest 4.9 rpg. Last season they scored 804 runs, just shy of five per game (4.96). That was good for sixth-best in MLB. It will be hard for this lineup to reach that same mark, but it should be a strong enough lineup to produce a winning record, especially considering the good pitching staff. I suspect the Giants will be active at the trade deadline and that some young hitters will get promoted quickly.

The 2021 Giants were the most interesting team I've ever followed. All those moving parts! It's going to be more of the same in 2022: a total team effort. On the Giants roster every spot matters. Every player contributes. Last year they were able to put an above-average major league hitter up to the plate in almost every spot. And they were able to put an above-average major league pitcher into almost every situation. They won by attrition, by grinding out every pitch, and by making each play count. I'm looking forward to another go-round.

--M.C.

One billion dollars

I put "MLB and betting" into the Google search box and I got a long list of links from places like DraftKings Sportsbook, The Action Network, Vegas Insider, BetMGM, Covers.com, Odds Shark, VSiN, Sportsbook Wire, SportsBettingDime, Simplebet, SBR, etc., etc. There are lots of places where a fool can part with his money. There have always been such places. The difference today is that betting on sports, and baseball in particular, is now actively encouraged and enabled. The powers-that-be WANT you to bet on sports!

MLB is the latest entity to hitch a ride on the Great Gambling Train. They have an exclusive agreement with MGM that allows it to be the "Official Gaming Partner of MLB." Why would MLB, after decades of recoiling in horror from the potential taint of betting on games, suddenly embrace this new arrangement? Simple. It's about the money. ONE BILLION DOLLARS is the projected revenue (that's annually) from this unholy alliance. And make no mistake, this is an unholy alliance.

Rob Manfred has a cynical practical approach. Sports betting is huge. Baseball fans are going to bet anyway so let's have some say in how the whole thing goes down. That's true. People are going to bet on sports whether it is sanctioned or not, regulated or not, legal or not. Manfred figures MLB needs to get its cut, and by partnering with MGM, they can tap into that company's history of running casinos and other legal gambling enterprises.One could always go to Reno and place a wager on a game. Or lay down money on a season. (My brother-in-law once gifted me a $20 betting chit "Giants to win the World Series @ 7-1." Not a bad bet--it was 1989, we came pretty close!) But that's small potatoes. Baseball is a perfect game for prop bets. Every plate appearance is an opportunity to place a wager. With smartphones and apps you can now bet on almost any aspect of a ballgame in real time. In fact, you can "play bet," that is, use the apps without wagering real money. That's perfect for the kiddies. They'll be squirming in their seats anyway so give 'em the phone and let 'em wager their play money. Just think how good they'll be at betting when they are old enough! Practice, practice, practice.

It's hideous. I realize we live in a world of token-ization, where everything we value is cut up into bits, tagged, re-named, and then marketed back to us. It's not just baseball. I also realize that the Great Gambling Train has already left the station. This post is just vox clamatis in deserto (a voice crying in the wilderness).

So why holler about it at all? Just to get it on record, I suppose. I don't think gambling should be illegal, but I do think it should not be encouraged. Gambling is NOT a positive social good. It is the opposite, in fact. It's a corrosive, anti-social behavior that does a lot of harm. But I'm also a realist. Baseball is big business, and business is what America is all about. When CEOs want something, they get it. So we will have betting and baseball living together in perfect har-mo-ny, side-by-side and all that.

I remember watching a 49ers game with a buddy several years ago who was really into his fantasy team. He would jump up and down and cheer for some random guy on the other squad to gain a few yards. Then root for a missed field goal or a fifty-yard punt or somesuch, seemingly independent of the game result. I was the old-fashioned stodgy one, rooting for my team and hoping the guys did well. My friend wanted the 49ers to win, but spent the whole time paying attention to single events that might help or hurt his fantasy team. I hated it. It wasn't fun, it was stupid. But that's how he enjoyed the game.

I suspect many "modern" fans of the game(s) need some sort of buy-in to the contest(s). They need a stake--a piece of the action. MLB and MGM will make sure they get one!

I'll get back to the 2022 Giants soon, don't worry.

--M.C.

 

p.s. I think we need to put the 1919 "Black Sox" and Pete Rose in the Hall of Fame. Those guys were misunderstood. They were obviously pioneers. Early-adopters are always penalized by history. Time to right the wrongs!

The 2022 pitching staff

Their are a few new faces for Giants fans this season. The biggest signing of the off-season is 29-year old lefty starter Carlos Rodón. He was the 3rd overall pick in the 2014 draft which included Tyler Beede at #14. Rodón has always had big strikeout stuff but has struggled with command. He put it all together last season for 24 starts (132-2/3 IP). He struck out 185 of the 534 batters he faced against only 36 walks, allowing just 91 hits (13 HR). It was good for a 183 ERA+ and 5.0 bWAR. One of his starts was a no-hitter against Cleveland. When he's healthy he's an ace. He's often not healthy (only 121 appearances in seven seasons) and the White Sox cut him loose despite his outstanding work. They have four other starters (Lucas Gliotto, Lance Lynn, Dallas Keuchel, Dylan Cease) and weren't willing to extend a Qualifying Offer. The Giants, in what is surely an organizational pattern, gave him big money ($44M) for a short term (2 years with an opt-out). It's a high-risk move but potentially high-reward as well as Rodón has serious talent. He will wear no. 16 after wearing no. 55 in Chicago.

Another 29-year old free agent pitcher, righty Jakob Junis, also signed with the Giants and will be under team control next season. He also has a minor-league option remaining. He's a swing man who will likely start and relieve as well as serve as an opener. He's logged over 500 IP in the bigs since his 2017 debut with the Royals.

An intriguing 30-year old right-handed starter (and former closer!) Carlos Martinez signed a minors deal with the Giants but is expected to make the big-league roster. He spent his career with the Cardinals (274 games, 967 IP) and was a top starter from 2015-2017. He notched 24 saves out of the 'pen in 2019 but has struggled to stay healthy since then.

Alex Cobb came on board before the lockout. The 34-year old righty has 174 starts (1010-1/3 IP) in his ten seasons with the Rays, Orioles, and Angels. He boasts strong ground ball numbers and good walk rates. His 3.87 ERA is just about the same as his 3.94 FIP which is a tick above league average. He has a two-year deal with an option ($20M total).

The rest of the staff returns from last season. Logan Webb is emerging as a front-line beast and does not start his arb-clock until next year. Anthony DeSclafani had a superb season and was rewarded with a three-year deal ($36M total). Solid lefty Alex Wood is back for two years ($25M total)

The relief corps is the same with Jake McGee, Tyler Rogers, Dominic Leone, Jarlin Garcia, Zack Littell, and Jose Alvarez all still in the mix. Youngsters Camilo Doval and Kervin Castro will be part of the team, too. John Brebbia has recovered from TJS and should be able to compete for a spot. And the above-mentioned Tyler Beede will be at AAA with Sean Hjelle, Gregory Santos, and lefty Sammy Long. It's an FZ team so expect a lot of movement.

I should note that the new CBA has a re-defined "option." It used to be if a player had an option he could be sent back-and-forth to the minors as many times as the team needed in one season. Now that movement is limited to five trips. The Giants used the option 69 times (Jason Vosler and Thairo Estrada each had 7, Sammy Long and Chadwick Tromp each had 5) in 2021. The PoBO's job got just a wee bit harder, perhaps.

Spring Training games start on Friday. Camp is going to be a busy place! Opening Day is April 7th.

--M.C.

Baseball is Back

The economics of baseball isn't going to change much due to labor strife. The players have a voice, but it's a limited one. Baseball teams still own players. They control the first seven years of a player's career. Not only that, owners can manipulate the start dates on a player's service time in order to keep them under "team control" for longer. Arbitration rears its ugly head in the final few years, but that's an adversarial process that only serves to undermine a player's relationship with his bosses. When most players reach free agency they are in decline. They aren't as good as they used to be and thus less valuable to other teams. Baseball has managed to pay the best young talent at the lowest rates and also to suppress the late-career earnings of older players who have "earned" their freedom. It's a crap system, and it isn't going to change with this or any subsequent CBA.

In an ideal world all players would be free agents from the start. In a less-than-ideal but better world, the kind of world we all hope for, players would need half the service time to become free agents. Three years, maybe four years. If teams had that clock ticking they would have to make decisions sooner on young players and that would give those guys chances with other teams while still in their athletic primes.

Sadly, the players made no movement on that. That's the most important thing, but it strikes at the heart of the game's power structure, so it has a sort of "third rail" status. I think the only way players will ever get that kind of work done is if Congress gets rid of MLB's special status. There is no reason why baseball owners should get an anti-trust exemption. It's infuriating to have these creepy wannabe-tycoons brag about their free market successes yet fight, and fight dirty, to protect themselves from competition. We need the equivalent of the old AFL and ABA to emerge and challenge MLB's monopoly on the game.

As far as this Collective Bargaining Agreement goes the players got a few bones tossed their way. They raised the minimum salary quite a bit. I heard that AAA players will get a bump. Those are good things. The Competitive Balance Tax level was increased. The players rightly see it as a salary cap and are opposed to a CBT, but the owners are paranoid and want to keep a lid on the nutjobs (like Steve Cohen of the Mets) who will game the system. For them it's sort of "we gotta have some rules in this sandbox!" The players got some money into the pre-arbitration bonus pool and that will help a chunk of younger guys.

If you haven't already seen it coming the National League will now adopt the Designated Hitter. About time, I say. I would expect more rule changes coming even though they weren't explicitly covered in this CBA. There is a move to ban shifting, which I think is stupid, and a desire for pitch clocks, which I support. Pace-of-play is a critical failing of today's game and needs to be addressed. Clocks aren't the prettiest solution, but they have been well-received where they've been tried out. There will be a sort of "fast-track" scheme for implementing new rules so us old-timers need to be prepared.

I'm ready for baseball but it's going to be a different vibe, that's for sure. This whole mess let some of the air outta my balloon. But it's baseball, and it's back.

--M.C.

 

p.s. Giants just signed lefty Carlos Rodón. This is a huge move. Two years, $44M. I suppose we'll talk about that in the comments!

New CBA

Apparently the Players Association and Major League Baseball have a tentative agreement:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32882139/mlb-lockout-mlb-mlbpa-agree-new-cba

https://www.mlb.com/

The regular season is to begin on April 7th.

--M.C.

Two down, fifty to go

According to the printable Giants schedule (available on the website) below, the Giants were expected to play fifty-two series in 2022. Take a look:

The owners (and their hired gun, Mr. Disinterested) just lopped off 3.85% (2/52) of the season. They have no reason to do this other than the usual one which is "what we can't completely control we will deliberately fuck up."

It's clear that MLB had no intention of negotiating in good faith. The lockout was just the opening salvo in a full-fledged assault on the game. The billionaires have shown us that they are willing to break their toys just so no one else can play with them.

This is a disaster. People are going to walk away from baseball this time and not come back. It's not 1995. The game no longer has the pull on the public consciousness that it once did. Dollars are going to flow to other places. Baseball will become like opera, something that relies on patronage and federal arts funding in order to exist (note: I like opera, this is not a dig). Perhaps the unholy alliance of MLB and the betting industry will make up a new revenue stream and cover the losses from fan defection.

--M.C.