That's a wrap!

Now that 2022 is coming to a close let's take a look at the state of the team for next season. Here's a link to the official 40-man roster. I also rely on FanGraph's Roster Resource Depth Chart. And of course you have to keep track of the payroll and that's where you need Cot's Contracts. (All these links are on the sidebar.)

The outfield is getting close to a finished product. The corners will be manned by FNGs Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto. Centerfield will be a Mike Yastrzemski/Austin Slater platoon and we'll see both backing up in LF and RF. Ideally Joc Pederson will only see time at DH and 1B but I suppose there will be an occasion or two where he lumbers out to left. J.D. Davis has also played LF and LaMonte Wade, Jr. has most of his experience in RF. Luís González has also mostly played RF. He's younger than Wade and has an option remaining. It doesn't seem like they are chasing another OF.

Starting pitching looks well-stocked. Obviously Logan Webb will be the number one with Alex Cobb and probably the FNG lefty Sean Manaea in the next two spots. FNG righty Ross Stripling will likely be the fourth man. Both Anthony DeSclafani and southpaw Alex Wood are in the mix as fifth starter. Jakob Junis would ideally be a swingman. I expect to see ultra-prospect Kyle Harrison get a promotion during the season.

The bullpen was improved with the addition of Taylor Rogers, Tyler's brother. He should be an excellent lefty complement to closer Camilo Doval. Righties Tyler Rogers and John Brebbia will have their lefty counterparts in Sam Long and Scott Alexander. This is an unfinished group. Another late-inning/high-leverage arm or two (or three) would be great.

The infield is a concern. Right now J.D. Davis is the third baseman, backed up by Wilmer Flores and David Villar. Wilmer of course will back up at both 2B and 1B. Wade, Jr. is a lefty-hitting 1B option (Davis and Villar have also played 1B). Thairo Estrada is the second baseman and Brandon Crawford is the shortstop. Estrada right now is the only real option to back up at SS. Isan Díaz provides emergency depth at both spots. Seems a bit thin here.

Speaking of thin, I think catching is the great unknown. Obviously they are committed to Joey Bart as the starter. He will need a quality backup or two. Austin Wynns is still on the roster and FNG Blake Sabol is listed as a catcher as well as an OF. Here's a spot that could use some roster-churning magic from FZ and Co.

Speaking of FZ he talks about L'Affaire Correa both here and here. He says all the right things. I like when he says that when you are "trending on Twitter" it is "never a good thing!" He takes his job seriously but seems to keep his sense of humor. I suspect there will be lots of roster moves between now and next spring.

Happy New Year!

Go Giants!

--M.C.

OF, bullpen

The Giants have been looking for outfield and bullpen help and they signed two players in an attempt to address those needs. Michael Conforto is a former 1st round pick (#10 in 2014) who did not play at all in 2022 due to shoulder surgery. He's a career .255/.356/.468 hitter who turns 30 in March. He's on a two-year deal ($36M) with an opt-out. The pitcher is lefty Taylor Rogers, Tyler's brother, and he signed a 3-year deal worth $33M. Rogers has always been a reliever and has 81 saves and 445 strikeouts in 379 IP. He's 32.

These are the kinds of moves I was expecting. The pivot to Correa (I never expected Judge to leave the Yankees) was a shocker--I did not think the Giants would make that kind of deal. When the whole mess fell through it didn't hit me very hard because I was still processing the original story!

The SF press and fan base want to crucify FZ and Co. for reneging on the Correa deal (and it seems the Giants were the ones who balked) but I don't have a problem with it. Thirteen years is a long time and $350M is a lot of money. It's okay to be risk-averse in that situation. The smart move isn't always the popular one.

Go Giants!

--M.C.

Billionaires and millionaires: what's a poor boy to do?

MLB is a big sandbox for billionaires to play in. There's lots of multi-millionaires, some ordinary millionaires, and a host of other folks, too, but in the end it's just a big plaything for some ultra-rich guys.

Then there's us. The fans. We just watch. There's nothing we can do except, well, NOT watch. That's it. These guys are going to do their dances and we are the lucky or unlucky recipients of the fallout.

The Giants played billionaire-millionaire tug-of-war and got beat. I'm not sure who is at fault or who is to blame so I won't worry about it. The fans are probably calling for Zaidi's head because that's what fans do. I'm not sure we'll ever really know how the Correa mess went down but it leaves a bad taste in my mouth. It seems like the "agreement" that Correa and the Boras Co. signed with the Giants was just part of the dance and contained enough wiggle room so they could change partners at any time. Fine. If that's how things get done in the billionaire's sandbox then they can have it.

I was excited about the possibility of Carlos Correa playing for the Giants but in general I'm not a fan of decade-length nine-figure contracts. So I'm bummed they couldn't improve the team but happy they dodged what I think is a pretty big bullet.

I don't have a problem with owners spending money or players making money. Hell the players are underpaid relative to the amount of wealth in the game! But I'm not going to take it too seriously. If Steve Cohen wants to throw more sand than the other guys in the box then more power to him. It might work. It might not. They still have to play the games.

I like baseball. I like the Giants. There's not much more to it for me than that so I'm not going to lose sleep over any of this stuff. It's time to get back to roster-building and getting excited about Spring Training. By the way I think the Haniger, Manaea, and Stripling signings were all solid moves that will help the club.

Christmas is nigh and I want to wish everyone the best for the holiday season. Thanks again to all the regular readers and contributors!

--M.C.

Never mind

I guess 13 isn't so lucky for me after all. Carlos Correa, in a stunning reversal, will not sign with the Giants. In fact he will go to the Mets on a 12-year deal for $315M.

The Giants apparently found something in his physical exam that put the mega-deal on hold. Agent Scott Boras then negotiated a new deal with the Mets.

I suppose we will just have to wait and hear what it is all about.

--M.C.

Lucky 13

FNG Carlos Correa signed a 13-year deal with the Giants. Think for a second: how many people currently in the organization will still be in the organization when this deal is over? Farhan Zaidi? Gabe Kapler? Logan Webb? Joey Bart? It's hard to imagine what the team will look like in 13 years. Oh, I suppose Buster Posey will still be part of the ownership group! Anyway, I thought I'd share the ZiPS projections for Correa. ZiPS is the brainchild of Dan Szymborski (FanGraphs) and is a popular system with fans and fantasy players.

 

That's 41.7 WAR over the life of the contract. At $350M that's $8.4M per WAR and that's relatively cheap. You can see that the first five years of the deal are "the meat" that the team is paying for: 24.7 WAR. FanGraphs says Correa has been worth 31.3 WAR since his debut in 2015 at age 20.

Correa doesn't project monster 8+ WAR Judge-like seasons but he does project consistent excellence and a slow decline. When you consider that the Padres have at least three shortstops and that the Dodgers just saw theirs sign with the Phillies this was the right time to get a new number six. I'm not sure if Correa will ever be an MVP but a guy this talented could certainly have an MVP-level season or two and could even outperform the projection above. I'm sure the Giants have their own analysis of the risks of such a contract and they've obviously decided there's too much upside not to go for it. Baseball salaries have not kept pace with the game's revenue or with inflation, believe it or not. Halfway through this deal $27M/year will not seem like so much. The owners are swimming in dough right now and they aren't worried if it runs out later—it will be someone else's problem by then!

Brandon Crawford's visage will be chiseled into SFG's Mt. Rushmore. He's certainly the greatest shortstop in orange-and-black in our lifetimes as fans. And he had a 6.3 fWAR season in 2021! But I think he reads the papers, too. I don't expect an issue with him moving to third base. But I want to acknowledge his immense contributions to the club and I think the position change will actually help him have another great year.

13 has always been my lucky number as I was born on Friday the 13th. So I think things are going to work out just fine with the FNG.

--M.C.

What's next?

The Giants landed their big fish. It turned out not to be Aaron Judge but Carlos Correa. Correa will replace fan favorite Brandon Crawford at shortstop and be the "face of the franchise" for a mind-boggling 13 years. These mega-deals are actually all about short-term returns. Teams expect big performances right away and are willing to punt on the back end. No one expects Judge or Correa to be All-Stars at age 37, but there's a good chance they will still be productive. No, Judge and/or Correa are supposed to be All-Stars right now.

The Giants need some All-Stars and Correa fits the bill nicely. So, that's good. The Giants also added a slugging outfielder, Mitch Haniger, and a couple of veteran starters, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling, to beef up the roster. Again, no complaints. Those are all good moves.

But what's next? What do the Giants still need to compete in the NL West? I know they were interested in Kenley Jansen and it seems like adding another closer-type to complement Camilo Doval would be a good idea. It worked really well when the team had both Jake McGee and Doval for those last few outs. Maybe they can find another power arm for the bullpen.

The Giants picked up a player from the Reds (cash trade) named Blake Sabol who is a catcher and an outfielder. He's 24 and seems ready to be promoted to the bigs. I mention him because the team needs help at catcher. Joey Bart is expected to start, but he will need backups. What's the plan?

Will they need some more thump in the lineup? Is a LaMonte Wade, Jr. and J.D. Davis platoon at first base the answer? Will Thairo Estrada be the starting second baseman? Both Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt are out there as unsigned free agents. Do you think the team should bring either or both back?

Despite landing a premier player there seems to be lots more off-season work to be done. What's on your list?

--M.C.

The Other Carlos

I've spent a lot of time thinking and writing about Carlos Rodón and have neglected to talk about The Other Carlos—Carlos Correa. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN the Giants have signed the 28-year old shortstop to a 13-year, $350M deal.

I admit to being flabbergasted. I did not expect this. Correa has been linked to the Giants but that means little. Everyone talks. I did not see this one coming. Of all the free agents he's the youngest so it's not surprising that he got the longest deal.

Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic has confirmed the deal.

Wow. That's all I have for you right now. Just wow.

Go Giants!

--M.C.

p.s. This ought to shut up the whiners. The word on Farhan is that he's a nickel-and-dimer and can't make the big play. Well, this is the big play.

 

 

Ross Stripling

The Carlos Rodón sweepstakes—at least the San Francisco version—are over. The Giants signed another veteran starter to the same deal as Sean Manaea, a two-year $25M pact with an opt-out. Ross Stripling just turned 33 and has started 104 games in his career out of a total of 204 appearances (672 IP). You may remember him from his time with the Dodgers. LA traded him to the Blue Jays in 2020 and last year he had perhaps his best season (2.7 bWAR in 134-1/3 IP, 24 starts).

The Giants now have a rotation consisting of Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, Sean Manaea, and Ross Stripling. There's also Jakob Junis who looks good as a swingman. Pitching depth, pitching depth, pitching depth, pitching depth. The Giants are stockpiling arms and instead of $200+M for one arm they will spread it around. (I think they should buy out Webb's arbitration years and his first few free agency years by signing him to a multi-year contract!). I can't complain about their approach. It's a long season and you need a lot of arms. There's talk that we will see 21-year old southpaw mega-prospect Kyle Harrison get promoted mid-year. A pair of homegrown aces, one lefty and one righty, would be a nice thing to build around.

--M.C.

Sean Manaea

Southpaw Sean Manaea might be familiar to Giants fans as he pitched for the Oakland A's from 2016-2021. Last year he was on the Padres. He's a former first-round pick (#34 in 2013, two picks below Aaron Judge) from Indiana State. He's not Carlos Rodón but he's a solid starter with good track record despite a poor season in 2022. It's a two-year deal (with an opt-out) worth $25M. He turns 31 in February.

--M.C.

Mitch Haniger

He's not Aaron Judge but he's a Bay Area native (Mountain View) and a former 1st-rounder (#38, 2012) from Cal Poly. Mitch Haniger turns 32 in December and is a right-handed hitter who has mostly played right field in his career. It's a 3-year deal worth $43.5M. There's an opt-out after 2024.

When he's been healthy he's a solid player with some pop. The Giants need some shoring up in the outfield and in the middle of the lineup and Haniger should help with both. He's a career .261/.335/.476 hitter in 564 G (2437 PA) mostly with the Mariners. I can see him as the starting LF next year (and the RH complement to Joc Pederson at DH). He has a reputation as a good "clubhouse guy" and the Giants like that

It's not a very exciting move but it is a move and that's something.

--M.C.