FNG Carlos Correa signed a 13-year deal with the Giants. Think for a second: how many people currently in the organization will still be in the organization when this deal is over? Farhan Zaidi? Gabe Kapler? Logan Webb? Joey Bart? It's hard to imagine what the team will look like in 13 years. Oh, I suppose Buster Posey will still be part of the ownership group! Anyway, I thought I'd share the ZiPS projections for Correa. ZiPS is the brainchild of Dan Szymborski (FanGraphs) and is a popular system with fans and fantasy players.
That's 41.7 WAR over the life of the contract. At $350M that's $8.4M per WAR and that's relatively cheap. You can see that the first five years of the deal are "the meat" that the team is paying for: 24.7 WAR. FanGraphs says Correa has been worth 31.3 WAR since his debut in 2015 at age 20.
Correa doesn't project monster 8+ WAR Judge-like seasons but he does project consistent excellence and a slow decline. When you consider that the Padres have at least three shortstops and that the Dodgers just saw theirs sign with the Phillies this was the right time to get a new number six. I'm not sure if Correa will ever be an MVP but a guy this talented could certainly have an MVP-level season or two and could even outperform the projection above. I'm sure the Giants have their own analysis of the risks of such a contract and they've obviously decided there's too much upside not to go for it. Baseball salaries have not kept pace with the game's revenue or with inflation, believe it or not. Halfway through this deal $27M/year will not seem like so much. The owners are swimming in dough right now and they aren't worried if it runs out later—it will be someone else's problem by then!
Brandon Crawford's visage will be chiseled into SFG's Mt. Rushmore. He's certainly the greatest shortstop in orange-and-black in our lifetimes as fans. And he had a 6.3 fWAR season in 2021! But I think he reads the papers, too. I don't expect an issue with him moving to third base. But I want to acknowledge his immense contributions to the club and I think the position change will actually help him have another great year.
13 has always been my lucky number as I was born on Friday the 13th. So I think things are going to work out just fine with the FNG.
--M.C.
12 comments:
Correa wore #1 with the Astros. He was, after all, the #1 overall pick in the draft!
The Giants picked up infielder Isán Diaz from the Marlins and he is currently on the Giants 40-man roster. He was at AAA last year despite having a year of MLB service. He wears #1.
I think Correa should wear #6. After all, he is the shortstop! And #13 (Austin Slater) is taken.
He wore #4 with the Twins. (I suspect he will stick with that.)
Mel Ott wore number 4. His Number is retired.
Of course!!
I forgot about the retired numbers. Let's see:
#3 Bill Terry
#4 Mel Ott
#11 Carl Hubbell
#20 Monte Irvin
#22 Will The Thrill
#24 Willie
#25 Barry
#27 Juan Marichal
#30 Orlando Cepeda
#36 Gaylord Perry
#44 Willie Mac
and of course #42 is unavailable across MLB
I think #6. Robby Thompson was #6 and he was a stud.
I heard that the giants DFA'd Santos to make room on the 40 man roster. Seems like a questionable move as the 23 year old has potential stuff similar to Doval. I wonder if there is a reason besides his skill level in the decision, perhaps his attitude or personality? It seems like an odd move considering other possible options.
Sometimes those guys pass through waivers and re-sign.
He's been in pro ball since he was 16. He came over from Boston in the Eduardo Nunez trade.
His issue has been walks. He does have the big heat, though.
They need space on the 40 man roster. Also he used PEDs and has control issues.
I get all that but he is, if the birthday data is real, only 23.
They added a guy to the 40-man earlier to protect him from the Rule 5 draft: Jose Cruz.
He's only 22 and just out of A-ball. Big K numbers.
It must be hard to "fish or cut bait" on those roster spots with young arms! You have to be psychic to figure out who will last.
Now what is going on with the Correa situation? On the east coast all I am hearing is that a
nondisclosed injury is holding things up.
This is what MLBTR says.
I won't speculate. Lots of times little things come up that are "flagged" but not serious. Who the hell knows?
The team has not made the Correa signing official--yet. We'll see!
Is it true that the Correa deal has crashed, or is that some craziness that has been posted?
Local news says Correa and Boras changed plans and are signing with the Mets. Is that possible, and if so, will there be a major law suit in the process, as the Correa signing may have meant the giants were less willing to pay Rodon as much as the Yankees and for as long. Right now if the stories are true, and the Mets already have a third of a million dollar shortstop, their payroll has to be the highest in baseball.
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